The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil

We examine the impact of Brazil's Bolsa Escola/Familia program on Brazilian children's education outcomes. Bolsa provides cash payments to poor households if their children (ages 6 to 15) are enrolled in school. Using school census data to compare changes in enrollment, dropping out and grade promotion across schools that adopted Bolsa at different times, we estimate that the program has: increased enrollment by about 5.5% (6.5%) in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); lowered dropout rates by 0.5 (0.4) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); and raised grade promotion rates by 0.9 (0.3) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8). About one third of Brazil's children participate in Bolsa, so assuming no spillover effects onto non-participants implies that Bolsa's impacts are three times higher than these estimates. However, simple calculations using enrollment impacts suggest that Bolsa's benefits in terms of increased wages may not exceed its costs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cash balance management: A comparison between genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization

This work aimed to apply genetic algorithms (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) in cash balance management using Miller-Orr model, which consists in a stochastic model that does not define a single ideal point for cash balance, but an oscillation range between a lower bound, an ideal balance and an upper bound. Thus, this paper proposes the application of GA and PSO to minimize the Total Cost of cash maintenance, obtaining the parameter of the lower bound of the Miller-Orr model, using for this the assumptions presented in literature. Computational experiments were applied in the development and validation of the models. The results indicated that both the GA and PSO are applicable in determining the cash level from the lower limit, with best results of PSO model, which had not yet been applied in this type of problem.

A search for anisotropy in the arrival directions of ultra high energy cosmic rays recorded at the Pierre Auger Observatory

Observations of cosmic rays arrival directions made with the Pierre Auger Observatory have previously provided evidence of anisotropy at the 99% CL using the correlation of ultra high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) with objects drawn from the Veron-Cetty Veron catalog. In this paper we report on the use of three catalog independent methods to search for anisotropy. The 2pt-L, 2pt+ and 3pt methods, each giving a different measure of self-clustering in arrival directions, were tested on mock cosmic ray data sets to study the impacts of sample size and magnetic smearing on their results, accounting for both angular and energy resolutions. If the sources of UHECRs follow the same large scale structure as ordinary galaxies in the local Universe and if UHECRs are deflected no more than a few degrees, a study of mock maps suggests that these three method can efficiently respond to the resulting anisotropy with a P-value = 1.0% or smaller with data sets as few as 100 events. using data taken from January 1, 2004 to July 31, 2010 we examined the 20, 30, ... , 110 highest energy events with a corresponding minimum energy threshold of about 49.3 EeV. The minimum P-values found were 13.5% using the 2pt-L method, 1.0% using the 2pt+ method and 1.1% using the 3pt method for the highest 100 energy events. In view of the multiple (correlated) scans performed on the data set, these catalog-independent methods do not yield strong evidence of anisotropy in the highest energy cosmic rays.

Fluxos decisórios na formulação das condicionalidades de saúde do programa bolsa família

Os programas de transferência condicionada de renda (TCR) entram na agenda pública por sua potencialidade em interferir no ciclo intergeracional de pobreza. Este artigo tem como objetivo analisar o processo de formulação das condicionalidades de saúde do Programa Bolsa Família e, secundariamente, avaliar sua interface com a trajetória das políticas de alimentação e nutrição no Brasil. Para isso, o estudo adotou como referencial analítico o modelo de análise de múltiplos fluxos, proposto por Kingdon, para quem a mudança na agenda pública acontece com a convergência entre o fluxo dos problemas, o fluxo das soluções e alternativas e o fluxo político. A trajetória desses fluxos foi recomposta por meio da análise de documentos governamentais e de relatos orais obtidos por meio de entrevistas. No momento da formulação das condicionalidades de saúde, no fluxo de problemas, havia a necessidade de mudar a estratégia de combate à desnutrição, devido às críticas ao Incentivo ao Combate às Carências Nutricionais (ICCN) e à extinção do Programa de Distribuição de Estoques de Alimentos (PRODEA). No que diz respeito ao fluxo das soluções, diversas propostas de TCR estavam em curso. No fluxo político, havia a decisão de criação de uma rede de proteção social. Nesse processo, a Coordenação Geral da Política de Alimentação e Nutrição assumiu o papel de empreendedora de políticas. A reflexão sobre esse processo ajuda a compreender o papel dos serviços de saúde em um programa de caráter intersetorial.

Description of atmospheric conditions at the Pierre Auger Observatory using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)

Atmospheric conditions at the site of a cosmic ray observatory must be known for reconstructing observed extensive air showers. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) is a global atmospheric model predicated on meteorological measurements and numerical weather predictions. GDAS provides altitude-dependent profiles of the main state variables of the atmosphere like temperature, pressure, and humidity. The original data and their application to the air shower reconstruction of the Pierre Auger Observatory are described. By comparisons with radiosonde and weather station measurements obtained on-site in Malargue and averaged monthly models, the utility of the GDAS data is shown. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends, drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10-15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The rapid atmospheric monitoring system of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is a facility built to detect air showers produced by cosmic rays above 10(17) eV. During clear nights with a low illuminated moon fraction, the UV fluorescence light produced by air showers is recorded by optical telescopes at the Observatory. To correct the observations for variations in atmospheric conditions, atmospheric monitoring is performed at regular intervals ranging from several minutes (for cloud identification) to several hours (for aerosol conditions) to several days (for vertical profiles of temperature, pressure, and humidity). In 2009, the monitoring program was upgraded to allow for additional targeted measurements of atmospheric conditions shortly after the detection of air showers of special interest, e. g., showers produced by very high-energy cosmic rays or showers with atypical longitudinal profiles. The former events are of particular importance for the determination of the energy scale of the Observatory, and the latter are characteristic of unusual air shower physics or exotic primary particle types. The purpose of targeted (or "rapid") monitoring is to improve the resolution of the atmospheric measurements for such events. In this paper, we report on the implementation of the rapid monitoring program and its current status. The rapid monitoring data have been analyzed and applied to the reconstruction of air showers of high interest, and indicate that the air fluorescence measurements affected by clouds and aerosols are effectively corrected using measurements from the regular atmospheric monitoring program. We find that the rapid monitoring program has potential for supporting dedicated physics analyses beyond the standard event reconstruction.

Impacts of Trade in Non-timber Forest Products on Cooperation among Caboclo Households of the Brazilian Amazon

Trade in non-timber forest products (NTFPs) has been touted as promoting forest conservation and enhancing the well-being of local residents through increased cash income, which is considered a positive outcome. However, research on cooperation has demonstrated that increased market access and income may strengthen or weaken cooperation. Because cooperation is essential for community resilience in small-scale societies, negative effects on people's well-being can be expected if increased NTFP trade reduces cooperation. To evaluate whether NTFP trade affected cooperation, we used household data (survey and systematic observations) to compare the frequency of cooperation in two communities of Brazilian Amazon Caboclos, one of which engaged in NTFP trade, while the other did not. Cooperation was less frequent in the community trading NTFPs, but neither household cash income nor household participation in NTFP exploitation was associated with cooperative behavior. Decreased frequency most likely derived from indirect effects of NTFP trade, such as less time to fish or socialize, or other outcomes observable only at the community level, such as income inequality, the influx of new residents and consequent population growth. Our results indicate that conservation and development projects based on NTFP trade may negatively impact social and economic well-being of local communities.

SEARCH FOR POINT-LIKE SOURCES OF ULTRA-HIGH ENERGY NEUTRINOS AT THE PIERRE AUGER OBSERVATORY AND IMPROVED LIMIT ON THE DIFFUSE FLUX OF TAU NEUTRINOS

The surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory can detect neutrinos with energy E-nu between 10(17) eV and 10(20) eV from point-like sources across the sky south of +55 degrees and north of -65 degrees declinations. A search has been performed for highly inclined extensive air showers produced by the interaction of neutrinos of all flavors in the atmosphere (downward-going neutrinos), and by the decay of tau leptons originating from tau neutrino interactions in Earth's crust (Earth-skimming neutrinos). No candidate neutrinos have been found in data up to 2010 May 31. This corresponds to an equivalent exposure of similar to 3.5 years of a full surface detector array for the Earth-skimming channel and similar to 2 years for the downward-going channel. An improved upper limit on the diffuse flux of tau neutrinos has been derived. Upper limits on the neutrino flux from point-like sources have been derived as a function of the source declination. Assuming a differential neutrino flux k(PS) . E-nu(-2). from a point-like source, 90% confidence level upper limits for k(PS) at the level of approximate to 5x10(-7) and 2.5x10(-6) GeV cm(-2) s(-1) have been obtained over a broad range of declinations from the searches for Earth-skimming and downward-going neutrinos, respectively.

A search for point sources of EeV neutrons

A thorough search of the sky exposed at the Pierre Auger Cosmic Ray Observatory reveals no statistically significant excess of events in any small solid angle that would be indicative of a flux of neutral particles from a discrete source. The search covers from -90 degrees to +15 degrees in declination using four different energy ranges above 1 EeV (10(18) eV). The method used in this search is more sensitive to neutrons than to photons. The upper limit on a neutron flux is derived for a dense grid of directions for each of the four energy ranges. These results constrain scenarios for the production of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays in the Galaxy.

LARGE-SCALE DISTRIBUTION OF ARRIVAL DIRECTIONS OF COSMIC RAYS DETECTED ABOVE 10(18) eV AT THE PIERRE AUGER OBSERVATORY

A thorough search for large-scale anisotropies in the distribution of arrival directions of cosmic rays detected above 10(18) eV at the Pierre Auger Observatory is presented. This search is performed as a function of both declination and right ascension in several energy ranges above 10(18) eV, and reported in terms of dipolar and quadrupolar coefficients. Within the systematic uncertainties, no significant deviation from isotropy is revealed. Assuming that any cosmic-ray anisotropy is dominated by dipole and quadrupole moments in this energy range, upper limits on their amplitudes are derived. These upper limits allow us to test the origin of cosmic rays above 10(18) eV from stationary Galactic sources densely distributed in the Galactic disk and predominantly emitting light particles in all directions.

Impactos Operacionais das Alterações no Contrato Futuro de Milho da BM&F-Bovespa na Mitigação de Risco

O mercado de milho possui importante participação no cenário agropecuário nacional, pela relevância dentro da indústria de carnes. Destacam-se as estratégias de comercialização do grão, em especial as relacionadas à mitigação do risco de preço com o uso de contratos futuros. Objetiva-se identificar e interpretar os efeitos causados pela modificação no contrato futuro do milho negociado na BM&F-Bovespa, que em setembro de 2008 passou de entrega física para liquidação financeira, sobre o desempenho do mercado futuro do grão comercializado. Avaliam-se a liquidez dos contratos, a volatilidade dos preços futuros e físico do milho, bem como a convergência da base. Identificaram-se como possíveis efeitos da alteração contratual o aumento da liquidez do contrato futuro de milho e a redução da volatilidade dos preços, além da melhoria na convergência da base. Os resultados alinham-se com a teoria e evidenciam impacto positivo da implementação da liquidação financeira no contrato futuro de milho.

Measurement of the proton-air cross section at root s=57 TeV with the Pierre Auger Observatory

We report a measurement of the proton-air cross section for particle production at the center-of-mass energy per nucleon of 57 TeV. This is derived from the distribution of the depths of shower maxima observed with the Pierre Auger Observatory: systematic uncertainties are studied in detail. Analyzing the tail of the distribution of the shower maxima, a proton-air cross section of [505 +/- 22(stat)(-36)(+28)(syst)] mb is found.