27 resultados para autoregressive distributed lag model
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo
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Objective: To investigate the lag structure effects from exposure to atmospheric pollution in acute outbursts in hospital admissions of paediatric rheumatic diseases (PRDs). Methods: Morbidity data were obtained from the Brazilian Hospital Information System in seven consecutive years, including admissions due to seven PRDs (juvenile idiopathic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, dermatomyositis, Henoch-Schonlein purpura, polyarteritis nodosa, systemic sclerosis and ankylosing spondylitis). Cases with secondary diagnosis of respiratory diseases were excluded. Daily concentrations of inhaled particulate matter (PM10), sulphur dioxide (SO2) nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O-3) and carbon monoxide (CO) were evaluated. Generalized linear Poisson regression models controlling for short-term trend, seasonality, holidays, temperature and humidity were used. Lag structures and magnitude of air pollutants' effects were adopted to estimate restricted polynomial distributed lag models. Results: The total number of admissions due to acute outbursts PRD was 1,821. The SO2 interquartile range (7.79 mu g/m(3)) was associated with an increase of 1.98% (confidence interval 0.25-3.69) in the number of hospital admissions due to outcome studied after 14 days of exposure. This effect was maintained until day 17. Of note, the other pollutants, with the exception of O-3, showed an increase in the number of hospital admissions from the second week. Conclusion: This study is the first to demonstrate a delayed association between SO2 and PRD outburst, suggesting that oxidative stress reaction could trigger the inflammation of these diseases. Lupus (2012) 21, 526-533.
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Abstract Background To understand the molecular mechanisms underlying important biological processes, a detailed description of the gene products networks involved is required. In order to define and understand such molecular networks, some statistical methods are proposed in the literature to estimate gene regulatory networks from time-series microarray data. However, several problems still need to be overcome. Firstly, information flow need to be inferred, in addition to the correlation between genes. Secondly, we usually try to identify large networks from a large number of genes (parameters) originating from a smaller number of microarray experiments (samples). Due to this situation, which is rather frequent in Bioinformatics, it is difficult to perform statistical tests using methods that model large gene-gene networks. In addition, most of the models are based on dimension reduction using clustering techniques, therefore, the resulting network is not a gene-gene network but a module-module network. Here, we present the Sparse Vector Autoregressive model as a solution to these problems. Results We have applied the Sparse Vector Autoregressive model to estimate gene regulatory networks based on gene expression profiles obtained from time-series microarray experiments. Through extensive simulations, by applying the SVAR method to artificial regulatory networks, we show that SVAR can infer true positive edges even under conditions in which the number of samples is smaller than the number of genes. Moreover, it is possible to control for false positives, a significant advantage when compared to other methods described in the literature, which are based on ranks or score functions. By applying SVAR to actual HeLa cell cycle gene expression data, we were able to identify well known transcription factor targets. Conclusion The proposed SVAR method is able to model gene regulatory networks in frequent situations in which the number of samples is lower than the number of genes, making it possible to naturally infer partial Granger causalities without any a priori information. In addition, we present a statistical test to control the false discovery rate, which was not previously possible using other gene regulatory network models.
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We studied locomotor activity rhythms of C57/Bl6 mice under a chronic jet lag (CJL) protocol (ChrA(6/2)), which consisted of 6-hour phase advances of the light-dark schedule (LD) every 2 days. Through periodogram analysis, we found 2 components of the activity rhythm: a short-period component (21.01 +/- 0.04 h) that was entrained by the LD schedule and a long-period component (24.68 +/- 0.26 h). We developed a mathematical model comprising 2 coupled circadian oscillators that was tested experimentally with different CJL schedules. Our simulations suggested that under CJL, the system behaves as if it were under a zeitgeber with a period determined by (24 -[phase shift size/days between shifts]). Desynchronization within the system arises according to whether this effective zeitgeber is inside or outside the range of entrainment of the oscillators. In this sense, ChrA(6/2) is interpreted as a (24 - 6/2 = 21 h) zeitgeber, and simulations predicted the behavior of mice under other CJL schedules with an effective 21-hour zeitgeber. Animals studied under an asymmetric T = 21 h zeitgeber (carried out by a 3-hour shortening of every dark phase) showed 2 activity components as observed under ChrA(6/2): an entrained short-period (21.01 +/- 0.03 h) and a long-period component (23.93 +/- 0.31 h). Internal desynchronization was lost when mice were subjected to 9-hour advances every 3 days, a possibility also contemplated by the simulations. Simulations also predicted that desynchronization should be less prevalent under delaying than under advancing CJL. Indeed, most mice subjected to 6-hour delay shifts every 2 days (an effective 27-hour zeitgeber) displayed a single entrained activity component (26.92 +/- 0.11 h). Our results demonstrate that the disruption provoked by CJL schedules is not dependent on the phase-shift magnitude or the frequency of the shifts separately but on the combination of both, through its ratio and additionally on their absolute values. In this study, we present a novel model of forced desynchronization in mice under a specific CJL schedule; in addition, our model provides theoretical tools for the evaluation of circadian disruption under CJL conditions that are currently used in circadian research.
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VEGF inhibition can promote renal vascular and parenchymal injury, causing proteinuria, hypertension and thrombotic microangiopathy. The mechanisms underlying these side effects are unclear. We investigated the renal effects of the administration, during 45 days, of sunitinib (Su), a VEGF receptor inhibitor, to rats with 5/6 renal ablation (Nx). Adult male Munich-Wistar rats were distributed among groups S+V, sham-operated rats receiving vehicle only; S+Su, S rats given Su, 4 mg/kg/day; Nx+V, Nx rats receiving V; and Nx+Su, Nx rats receiving Su. Su caused no change in Group S. Seven and 45 days after renal ablation, renal cortical interstitium was expanded, in association with rarefaction of peritubular capillaries. Su did not worsen hypertension, proteinuria or interstitial expansion, nor did it affect capillary rarefaction, suggesting little angiogenic activity in this model. Nx animals exhibited glomerulosclerosis (GS), which was aggravated by Su. This effect could not be explained by podocyte damage, nor could it be ascribed to tuft hypertrophy or hyperplasia. GS may have derived from organization of capillary microthrombi, frequently observed in Group Nx+Su. Treatment with Su did not reduce the fractional glomerular endothelial area, suggesting functional rather than structural cell injury. Chronic VEGF inhibition has little effect on normal rats, but can affect glomerular endothelium when renal damage is already present.
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A data set of a commercial Nellore beef cattle selection program was used to compare breeding models that assumed or not markers effects to estimate the breeding values, when a reduced number of animals have phenotypic, genotypic and pedigree information available. This herd complete data set was composed of 83,404 animals measured for weaning weight (WW), post-weaning gain (PWG), scrotal circumference (SC) and muscle score (MS), corresponding to 116,652 animals in the relationship matrix. Single trait analyses were performed by MTDFREML software to estimate fixed and random effects solutions using this complete data. The additive effects estimated were assumed as the reference breeding values for those animals. The individual observed phenotype of each trait was adjusted for fixed and random effects solutions, except for direct additive effects. The adjusted phenotype composed of the additive and residual parts of observed phenotype was used as dependent variable for models' comparison. Among all measured animals of this herd, only 3160 animals were genotyped for 106 SNP markers. Three models were compared in terms of changes on animals' rank, global fit and predictive ability. Model 1 included only polygenic effects, model 2 included only markers effects and model 3 included both polygenic and markers effects. Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods performed by TM software was used to analyze the data for model comparison. Two different priors were adopted for markers effects in models 2 and 3, the first prior assumed was a uniform distribution (U) and, as a second prior, was assumed that markers effects were distributed as normal (N). Higher rank correlation coefficients were observed for models 3_U and 3_N, indicating a greater similarity of these models animals' rank and the rank based on the reference breeding values. Model 3_N presented a better global fit, as demonstrated by its low DIC. The best models in terms of predictive ability were models 1 and 3_N. Differences due prior assumed to markers effects in models 2 and 3 could be attributed to the better ability of normal prior in handle with collinear effects. The models 2_U and 2_N presented the worst performance, indicating that this small set of markers should not be used to genetically evaluate animals with no data, since its predictive ability is restricted. In conclusion, model 3_N presented a slight superiority when a reduce number of animals have phenotypic, genotypic and pedigree information. It could be attributed to the variation retained by markers and polygenic effects assumed together and the normal prior assumed to markers effects, that deals better with the collinearity between markers. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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In this paper, a modeling technique for small-signal stability assessment of unbalanced power systems is presented. Since power distribution systems are inherently unbalanced, due to its lines and loads characteristics, and the penetration of distributed generation into these systems is increasing nowadays, such a tool is needed in order to ensure a secure and reliable operation of these systems. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a phasor-based model for the study of dynamic phenomena in unbalanced power systems. Using an assumption on the net torque of the generator, it is possible to precisely define an equilibrium point for the phasor model of the system, thus enabling its linearization around this point, and, consequently, its eigenvalue/eigenvector analysis for small-signal stability assessment. The modeling technique presented here was compared to the dynamic behavior observed in ATP simulations and the results show that, for the generator and controller models used, the proposed modeling approach is adequate and yields reliable and precise results.
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In this paper, we discuss the effects of catalyst load with respect to carbon powder for several Pt and Pb-based catalysts, using formic acid as a model molecule. The discussion is based on electrochemical tests, a complete morphological investigation and theoretical calculations. We show that the Pt and Pb-based catalysts presented activity in formic acid oxidation at very low catalyst loads (e.g., 0.5% in respect to the carbon content). Physical characterisations demonstrate that the electrodes are composed of separated phases of Pt and lead distributed in Pt nanometric-sized islands that are heterogeneously dispersed on the carbon support and Pb ultra-small particles homogeneously distributed throughout the entire carbon surface, as demonstrated by the microscopy studies. At high catalyst loads, very large clusters of Pb(x)O(y) could be observed. Electrochemical tests indicated an increase in the apparent resistance of the system (by a factor of 19.7 Omega) when the catalyst load was increased. The effect of lead in the materials was also studied by theoretical calculations (OFT). The main conclusion is that the presence of Pb atoms in the catalyst can improve the adsorption of formic acid in the catalytic system compared with a pure Pt-based catalyst. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Background: In the analysis of effects by cell treatment such as drug dosing, identifying changes on gene network structures between normal and treated cells is a key task. A possible way for identifying the changes is to compare structures of networks estimated from data on normal and treated cells separately. However, this approach usually fails to estimate accurate gene networks due to the limited length of time series data and measurement noise. Thus, approaches that identify changes on regulations by using time series data on both conditions in an efficient manner are demanded. Methods: We propose a new statistical approach that is based on the state space representation of the vector autoregressive model and estimates gene networks on two different conditions in order to identify changes on regulations between the conditions. In the mathematical model of our approach, hidden binary variables are newly introduced to indicate the presence of regulations on each condition. The use of the hidden binary variables enables an efficient data usage; data on both conditions are used for commonly existing regulations, while for condition specific regulations corresponding data are only applied. Also, the similarity of networks on two conditions is automatically considered from the design of the potential function for the hidden binary variables. For the estimation of the hidden binary variables, we derive a new variational annealing method that searches the configuration of the binary variables maximizing the marginal likelihood. Results: For the performance evaluation, we use time series data from two topologically similar synthetic networks, and confirm that our proposed approach estimates commonly existing regulations as well as changes on regulations with higher coverage and precision than other existing approaches in almost all the experimental settings. For a real data application, our proposed approach is applied to time series data from normal Human lung cells and Human lung cells treated by stimulating EGF-receptors and dosing an anticancer drug termed Gefitinib. In the treated lung cells, a cancer cell condition is simulated by the stimulation of EGF-receptors, but the effect would be counteracted due to the selective inhibition of EGF-receptors by Gefitinib. However, gene expression profiles are actually different between the conditions, and the genes related to the identified changes are considered as possible off-targets of Gefitinib. Conclusions: From the synthetically generated time series data, our proposed approach can identify changes on regulations more accurately than existing methods. By applying the proposed approach to the time series data on normal and treated Human lung cells, candidates of off-target genes of Gefitinib are found. According to the published clinical information, one of the genes can be related to a factor of interstitial pneumonia, which is known as a side effect of Gefitinib.
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Adult stem cells are distributed through the whole organism, and present a great potential for the therapy of different types of disease. For the design of efficient therapeutic strategies, it is important to have a more detailed understanding of their basic biological characteristics, as well as of the signals produced by damaged tissues and to which they respond. Myocardial infarction (MI), a disease caused by a lack of blood flow supply in the heart, represents the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in the Western world. Stem cell therapy arises as a promising alternative to conventional treatments, which are often ineffective in preventing loss of cardiomyocytes and fibrosis. Cell therapy protocols must take into account the molecular events that occur in the regenerative niche of MI. In the present study, we investigated the expression profile of ten genes coding for chemokines or cytokines in a murine model of MI, aiming at the characterization of the regenerative niche. MI was induced in adult C57BL/6 mice and heart samples were collected after 24 h and 30 days, as well as from control animals, for quantitative RT-PCR. Expression of the chemokine genes CCL2, CCL3, CCL4, CCL7, CXCL2 and CXCL10 was significantly increased 24 h after infarction, returning to baseline levels on day 30. Expression of the CCL8 gene significantly increased only on day 30, whereas gene expression of CXCL12 and CX3CL1 were not significantly increased in either ischemic period. Finally, expression of the IL-6 gene increased 24 h after infarction and was maintained at a significantly higher level than control samples 30 days later. These results contribute to the better knowledge of the regenerative niche in MI, allowing a more efficient selection or genetic manipulation of cells in therapeutic protocols.
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Abstract Background An important challenge for transcript counting methods such as Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE), "Digital Northern" or Massively Parallel Signature Sequencing (MPSS), is to carry out statistical analyses that account for the within-class variability, i.e., variability due to the intrinsic biological differences among sampled individuals of the same class, and not only variability due to technical sampling error. Results We introduce a Bayesian model that accounts for the within-class variability by means of mixture distribution. We show that the previously available approaches of aggregation in pools ("pseudo-libraries") and the Beta-Binomial model, are particular cases of the mixture model. We illustrate our method with a brain tumor vs. normal comparison using SAGE data from public databases. We show examples of tags regarded as differentially expressed with high significance if the within-class variability is ignored, but clearly not so significant if one accounts for it. Conclusion Using available information about biological replicates, one can transform a list of candidate transcripts showing differential expression to a more reliable one. Our method is freely available, under GPL/GNU copyleft, through a user friendly web-based on-line tool or as R language scripts at supplemental web-site.
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Abstract Background Using univariate and multivariate variance components linkage analysis methods, we studied possible genotype × age interaction in cardiovascular phenotypes related to the aging process from the Framingham Heart Study. Results We found evidence for genotype × age interaction for fasting glucose and systolic blood pressure. Conclusions There is polygenic genotype × age interaction for fasting glucose and systolic blood pressure and quantitative trait locus × age interaction for a linkage signal for systolic blood pressure phenotypes located on chromosome 17 at 67 cM.
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DA is supported by a CAPES PhD grant and ACR is the recipient of research grants by CNPq and FAPESP.
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Abstract Background While it is well known that bradykinin B2 agonists increase plasma protein extravasation (PPE) in brain tumors, the bradykinin B1 agonists tested thus far are unable to produce this effect. Here we examine the effect of the selective B1 agonist bradykinin (BK) Sar-[D-Phe8]des-Arg9BK (SAR), a compound resistant to enzymatic degradation with prolonged activity on PPE in the blood circulation in the C6 rat glioma model. Results SAR administration significantly enhanced PPE in C6 rat brain glioma compared to saline or BK (p < 0.01). Pre-administration of the bradykinin B1 antagonist [Leu8]-des-Arg (100 nmol/Kg) blocked the SAR-induced PPE in the tumor area. Conclusions Our data suggest that the B1 receptor modulates PPE in the blood tumor barrier of C6 glioma. A possible role for the use of SAR in the chemotherapy of gliomas deserves further study.
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The President of Brazil established an Interministerial Work Group in order to “evaluate the model of classification and valuation of disabilities used in Brazil and to define the elaboration and adoption of a unique model for all the country”. Eight Ministries and/or Secretaries participated in the discussion over a period of 10 months, concluding that a proposed model should be based on the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Person with Disabilities, the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health, and the ‘support theory’, and organizing a list of recommendations and necessary actions for a Classification, Evaluation and Certification Network with national coverage.
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Abstract Background The importance of the lung parenchyma in the pathophysiology of asthma has previously been demonstrated. Considering that nitric oxide synthases (NOS) and arginases compete for the same substrate, it is worthwhile to elucidate the effects of complex NOS-arginase dysfunction in the pathophysiology of asthma, particularly, related to distal lung tissue. We evaluated the effects of arginase and iNOS inhibition on distal lung mechanics and oxidative stress pathway activation in a model of chronic pulmonary allergic inflammation in guinea pigs. Methods Guinea pigs were exposed to repeated ovalbumin inhalations (twice a week for 4 weeks). The animals received 1400 W (an iNOS-specific inhibitor) for 4 days beginning at the last inhalation. Afterwards, the animals were anesthetized and exsanguinated; then, a slice of the distal lung was evaluated by oscillatory mechanics, and an arginase inhibitor (nor-NOHA) or vehicle was infused in a Krebs solution bath. Tissue resistance (Rt) and elastance (Et) were assessed before and after ovalbumin challenge (0.1%), and lung strips were submitted to histopathological studies. Results Ovalbumin-exposed animals presented an increase in the maximal Rt and Et responses after antigen challenge (p<0.001), in the number of iNOS positive cells (p<0.001) and in the expression of arginase 2, 8-isoprostane and NF-kB (p<0.001) in distal lung tissue. The 1400 W administration reduced all these responses (p<0.001) in alveolar septa. Ovalbumin-exposed animals that received nor-NOHA had a reduction of Rt, Et after antigen challenge, iNOS positive cells and 8-isoprostane and NF-kB (p<0.001) in lung tissue. The activity of arginase 2 was reduced only in the groups treated with nor-NOHA (p <0.05). There was a reduction of 8-isoprostane expression in OVA-NOR-W compared to OVA-NOR (p<0.001). Conclusions In this experimental model, increased arginase content and iNOS-positive cells were associated with the constriction of distal lung parenchyma. This functional alteration may be due to a high expression of 8-isoprostane, which had a procontractile effect. The mechanism involved in this response is likely related to the modulation of NF-kB expression, which contributed to the activation of the arginase and iNOS pathways. The association of both inhibitors potentiated the reduction of 8-isoprostane expression in this animal model.