Reproducibility of South American precipitation due to subtropical South Atlantic SSTs

This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

Aerosol and precipitation chemistry measurements in a remote site in Central Amazonia: the role of biogenic contribution

In this analysis a 3.5 years data set of aerosol and precipitation chemistry, obtained in a remote site in Central Amazonia (Balbina, (1A degrees 55' S, 59A degrees 29' W, 174 m a.s.l.), about 200 km north of Manaus) is discussed. Aerosols were sampled using stacked filter units (SFU), which separate fine (d < 2.5 mu m) and coarse mode (2.5 mu m < d < 10.0 mu m) aerosol particles. Filters were analyzed for particulate mass (PM), Equivalent Black Carbon (BCE) and elemental composition by Particle Induced X-Ray Emission (PIXE). Rainwater samples were collected using a wet-only sampler and samples were analyzed for pH and ionic composition, which was determined using ionic chromatography (IC). Natural sources dominated the aerosol mass during the wet season, when it was predominantly of natural biogenic origin mostly in the coarse mode, which comprised up to 81% of PM10. Biogenic aerosol from both primary emissions and secondary organic aerosol dominates the fine mode in the wet season, with very low concentrations (average 2.2 mu g m(-3)). Soil dust was responsible for a minor fraction of the aerosol mass (less than 17%). Sudden increases in the concentration of elements as Al, Ti and Fe were also observed, both in fine and coarse mode (mostly during the April-may months), which we attribute to episodes of Saharan dust transport. During the dry periods, a significant contribution to the fine aerosols loading was observed, due to the large-scale transport of smoke from biomass burning in other portions of the Amazon basin. This contribution is associated with the enhancement of the concentration of S, K, Zn and BCE. Chlorine, which is commonly associated to sea salt and also to biomass burning emissions, presented higher concentration not only during the dry season but also for the April-June months, due to the establishment of more favorable meteorological conditions to the transport of Atlantic air masses to Central Amazonia. The chemical composition of rainwater was similar to those ones observed in other remote sites in tropical forests. The volume-weighted mean (VWM) pH was 4.90. The most important contribution to acidity was from weak organic acids. The organic acidity was predominantly associated with the presence of acetic acid instead of formic acid, which is more often observed in pristine tropical areas. Wet deposition rates for major species did not differ significantly between dry and wet season, except for NH4+, citrate and acetate, which had smaller deposition rates during dry season. While biomass burning emissions were clearly identified in the aerosol component, it did not present a clear signature in rainwater. The biogenic component and the long-range transport of sea salt were observed both in aerosols and rainwater composition. The results shown here indicate that in Central Amazonia it is still possible to observe quite pristine atmospheric conditions, relatively free of anthropogenic influences.

RegCM3 nested in HadAM3 scenarios A2 and B2: projected changes in extratropical cyclogenesis, temperature and precipitation over the South Atlantic Ocean

The RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model-version 3) was nested in HadAM3 model to simulate present (1975-1989, referred hereafter as RegHad) and two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2 from 2071 to 2085, referred as RegA2 and RegB2) over the South America (SA) and South Atlantic Ocean (SAO). Projected changes in the air temperature, precipitation, low level circulation and cyclogenesis climatology were investigated. The cyclogenesis were identified using an automatic scheme for tracking based on the minimum of relative vorticity (zeta) from 10-m height wind. During summer, a general decrease (increase) in the precipitation is projected by RegA2 and RegB2 over the northeastern SA (center-west and south Brazil, north Argentina and Uruguay). For winter, an anomalous low level anticyclonic circulation is associated with the reduction in the rainfall over the central part of southern Brazil in RegA2 and RegB2 scenarios. Similar to HadAM3, RegCM3 projects larger warming in A2 scenario. For the present climate, when compared to HadAM3, RegHad defines better both the location of the main cyclogenetic areas and its annual cycle near southwestern SAO. The projections indicate a reduction in the total number of cyclones of -7.2% and -4.7% for RegA2 and RegB2, respectively, while HadAM3 reduction is -4.5% for both scenarios. The decrease is larger for initially intense cyclones (zeta <=-<= 2.5 x 10(-5) s-(1)): -20.9% (RegA2) and -11.3% (RegB2). For the lifetime, distance traveled and mean velocity of the cyclones, the A2 and B2 scenarios present mean values close to the present climate ( 3 days, 1900 km, and 9 m s(-1), respectively). Regarding the initial mean vorticity of the systems, RegB2 simulates values similar to the present climate, but they are initially weaker in RegA2. In general, RegA2 and RegB2 show a large decrease in the number of cyclones over the southern SAO due to an anticyclonic anomaly covering SAO between 30-55A degrees S. The reduction is larger in the scenario with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases (RegA2).

Analysis of the impact of rainfall assimilation during LBA atmospheric mesoscale missions in Southwest Amazon

The assimilation of satellite estimated precipitation data can be used as an efficient tool to improve the analysis of rainfall generated by numerical models of weather forecast. The system of data assimilation used in this study is cumulus parameterization inversion based on the Kuo scheme. Reanalysis were performed using the field experiment data of the LBA Project (WETAMC and DRYtoWET-AMC), where it was possible to verify an improvement in the simulations results, since the data assimilation corrects the position and the intensity of rainfall in the numerical model. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of urban activities on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in precipitation: Distribution, sources and depositional flux in a developing metropolis, Fortaleza, Brazil

We measured polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in bulk precipitation in the Fortaleza metropolitan area, Ceara, Brazil, for the first time. Because little information is available concerning PAHs in tropical climatic regions, we assessed their spatial distribution and possible sources and the influence of urban activities on the depositional fluxes of PAHs in bulk precipitation. The concentrations of individual and total PAHs (Sigma(PAHs)) in bulk precipitation ranged from undetectable to 133.9 ng.L-1 and from 202.6 to 674.8 ng.L-1, respectively. The plume of highest concentrations was most intense in a zone with heavy automobile traffic and favorable topography for the concentration of emitted pollutants. The depositional fluxes of PAHs in bulk precipitation calculated in this study (undetectable to 0.87 mu g.m(-2).month(-1)) are 4 to 27 times smaller than those reported from tourist sites and industrial and urban areas in the Northern Hemisphere. Diagnostic ratio analyses of PAH samples showed that the major source of emissions is gasoline exhaust, with a small percentage originating from diesel fuel. Contributions from coal and wood combustion were also found. Major economic activities appear to contribute to pollutant emissions. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.