Classification and regression tree (CART) model to predict pulmonary tuberculosis in hospitalized patients

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health issue worldwide. The lack of specific clinical symptoms to diagnose TB makes the correct decision to admit patients to respiratory isolation a difficult task for the clinician. Isolation of patients without the disease is common and increases health costs. Decision models for the diagnosis of TB in patients attending hospitals can increase the quality of care and decrease costs, without the risk of hospital transmission. We present a predictive model for predicting pulmonary TB in hospitalized patients in a high prevalence area in order to contribute to a more rational use of isolation rooms without increasing the risk of transmission. Methods: Cross sectional study of patients admitted to CFFH from March 2003 to December 2004. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated and validated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate the performance of model. Validation of the model was performed with a different sample of patients admitted to the same hospital from January to December 2005. Results: We studied 290 patients admitted with clinical suspicion of TB. Diagnosis was confirmed in 26.5% of them. Pulmonary TB was present in 83.7% of the patients with TB (62.3% with positive sputum smear) and HIV/AIDS was present in 56.9% of patients. The validated CART model showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 60.00%, 76.16%, 33.33%, and 90.55%, respectively. The AUC was 79.70%. Conclusions: The CART model developed for these hospitalized patients with clinical suspicion of TB had fair to good predictive performance for pulmonary TB. The most important variable for prediction of TB diagnosis was chest radiograph results. Prospective validation is still necessary, but our model offer an alternative for decision making in whether to isolate patients with clinical suspicion of TB in tertiary health facilities in countries with limited resources.

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

Background: In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Seroepidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season. Methods: In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-119 (MSP-119) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method. Results: A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for P. falciparum and 7.9% and 6.0% for P. vivax in August and November respectively). P. falciparum force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst P. vivax force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for P. falciparum in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to P. falciparum during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases. Discussion: In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.

Developing a provisional definition of flare in patients with established gout

Objective Various nonvalidated criteria for disease flare have been used in studies of gout. Our objective was to develop empirical definitions for a gout flare from patient-reported features. Methods Possible elements for flare criteria were previously reported. Data were collected from 210 gout patients at 8 international sites to evaluate potential gout flare criteria against the gold standard of an expert rheumatologist definition. Flare definitions based on the presence of the number of criteria independently associated with the flare and classification and regression tree approaches were developed. Results The mean +/- SD age of the study participants was 56.2 +/- 15 years, 207 of them (98%) were men, and 54 of them (26%) had flares of gout. The presence of any patient-reported warm joint, any patient-reported swollen joint, patient-reported pain at rest score of >3 (010 scale), and patient-reported flare were independently associated with the study gold standard. The greatest discriminating power was noted for the presence of 3 or more of the above 4 criteria (sensitivity 91% and specificity 82%). Requiring all 4 criteria provided the highest specificity (96%) and positive predictive value (85%). A classification tree identified pain at rest with a score of >3, followed by patient self-reported flare, as the rule associated with the gold standard (sensitivity 83% and specificity 90%). Conclusion We propose definitions for a disease flare based on self-reported items in patients previously diagnosed as having gout. Patient-reported flare, joint pain at rest, warm joints, and swollen joints were most strongly associated with presence of a gout flare. These provisional definitions will next be validated in clinical trials.

Quantitative Chemical Profile and Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Alembic Distilled Sugarcane Spirit Fractions

Concentrations of 39 organic compounds were determined in three fractions (head, heart and tail) obtained from the pot still distillation of fermented sugarcane juice. The results were evaluated using analysis of variance (ANOVA), Tukey's test, principal component analysis (PCA), hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). According to PCA and HCA, the experimental data lead to the formation of three clusters. The head fractions give rise to a more defined group. The heart and tail fractions showed some overlap consistent with its acid composition. The predictive ability of calibration and validation of the model generated by LDA for the three fractions classification were 90.5 and 100%, respectively. This model recognized as the heart twelve of the thirteen commercial cachacas (92.3%) with good sensory characteristics, thus showing potential for guiding the process of cuts.

Postmortem diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in patients with acute respiratory failure - demographics, etiologic and pulmonary histologic analysis

OBJECTIVES: Acute respiratory failure is present in 5% of patients with acute myocardial infarction and is responsible for 20% to 30% of the fatal post-acute myocardial infarction. The role of inflammation associated with pulmonary edema as a cause of acute respiratory failure post-acute myocardial infarction remains to be determined. We aimed to describe the demographics, etiologic data and histological pulmonary findings obtained through autopsies of patients who died during the period from 1990 to 2008 due to acute respiratory failure with no diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction during life. METHODS: This study considers 4,223 autopsies of patients who died of acute respiratory failure that was not preceded by any particular diagnosis while they were alive. The diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction was given in 218 (4.63%) patients. The age, sex and major associated diseases were recorded for each patient. Pulmonary histopathology was categorized as follows: diffuse alveolar damage, pulmonary edema, alveolar hemorrhage and lymphoplasmacytic interstitial pneumonia. The odds ratio of acute myocardial infarction associated with specific histopathology was determined by logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 147 men were included in the study. The mean age at the time of death was 64 years. Pulmonary histopathology revealed pulmonary edema as well as the presence of diffuse alveolar damage in 72.9% of patients. Bacterial bronchopneumonia was present in 11.9% of patients, systemic arterial hypertension in 10.1% and dilated cardiomyopathy in 6.9%. A multivariate analysis demonstrated a significant positive association between acute myocardial infarction with diffuse alveolar damage and pulmonary edema. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, we demonstrated that in autopsies of patients with acute respiratory failure as the cause of death, 5% were diagnosed with acute myocardial infarction. Pulmonary histology revealed a significant inflammatory response, which has not previously been reported.

Leaves of Lolium multiflorum 'Lema' and tropical tree species as biomonitors of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

This study extends the current knowledge regarding the use of plants for the passive accumulation of anthropogenic PAHs that are present in the atmospheric total suspended particles (TSP) in the tropics and sub-tropics. It is of major relevance because the anthropic emissions of TSP containing PAHs are significant in these regions, but their monitoring is still scarce. We compared the biomonitor efficiency of Lolium multiflorum 'Lema' and tropical tree species (Tibouchina pukka and Psidium guajava 'Paluma') that were growing in an intensely TSP-polluted site in Cubatao (SE Brazil), and established the species with the highest potential for alternative monitoring of PAHs. PAHs present in the TSP indicated that the region is impacted by various emission sources. L. multiflorum showed a greater efficiency for the accumulation of PAH compounds on their leaves than the tropical trees. The linear regression between the logBCF and logKoa revealed that L. multiflorum is an efficient biomonitor of the profile of light and heavy PAHs present in the particulate phase of the atmosphere during dry weather and mild temperatures. The grass should be used only for indicating the PAHs with higher molecular weight in warmer and wetter periods. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Postmortem diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in patients with acute respiratory failure: demographics, etiologic and pulmonary histologic analysis

OBJECTIVES: Acute respiratory failure is present in 5% of patients with acute myocardial infarction and is responsible for 20% to 30% of the fatal post-acute myocardial infarction. The role of inflammation associated with pulmonary edema as a cause of acute respiratory failure post-acute myocardial infarction remains to be determined. We aimed to describe the demographics, etiologic data and histological pulmonary findings obtained through autopsies of patients who died during the period from 1990 to 2008 due to acute respiratory failure with no diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction during life. METHODS: This study considers 4,223 autopsies of patients who died of acute respiratory failure that was not preceded by any particular diagnosis while they were alive. The diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction was given in 218 (4.63%) patients. The age, sex and major associated diseases were recorded for each patient. Pulmonary histopathology was categorized as follows: diffuse alveolar damage, pulmonary edema, alveolar hemorrhage and lymphoplasmacytic interstitial pneumonia. The odds ratio of acute myocardial infarction associated with specific histopathology was determined by logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 147 men were included in the study. The mean age at the time of death was 64 years. Pulmonary histopathology revealed pulmonary edema as well as the presence of diffuse alveolar damage in 72.9% of patients. Bacterial bronchopneumonia was present in 11.9% of patients, systemic arterial hypertension in 10.1% and dilated cardiomyopathy in 6.9%. A multivariate analysis demonstrated a significant positive association between acute myocardial infarction with diffuse alveolar damage and pulmonary edema. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, we demonstrated that in autopsies of patients with acute respiratory failure as the cause of death, 5% were diagnosed with acute myocardial infarction. Pulmonary histology revealed a significant inflammatory response, which has not previously been reported.

Transient and d.c. analysis of the operation mechanism of light-emitting electrochemical cells

Light-emitting electrochemical cells (LECs) made of electroluminescent polymers were studied by d.c. and transient current-voltage and luminance-voltage measurements to elucidate the operation mechanisms of this kind of device. The time and external voltage necessary to form electrical double layers (EDLs) at the electrode interfaces could be determined from the results. In the low-and intermediate-voltage ranges (below 1.1 V), the ionic transport and the electronic diffusion dominate the current, being the device operation better described by an electrodynamic model. For higher voltages, electrochemical doping occurs, giving rise to the formation of a p-i-n junction, according to an electrochemical doping model. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2012

Quantification of terbinafine in pharmaceutical tablets using capillary electrophoresis with contactless conductivity detection and batch injection analysis with amperometric detection

Terbinafine hydrochloride (TerbHCl) is an allylamine derivative with fungicidal action, especially against dermatophytes. Different analytical methods have been reported for quantifying TerbHCl in different samples. These procedures require time-consuming sample preparation or expensive instrumentation. In this paper, electrochemical methods involving capillary electrophoresis with contactless conductivity detection, and amperometry associated with batch injection analysis, are described for the determination of TerbHCl in pharmaceutical products. In the capillary electrophoresis experiments, terbinafine was protonated and analyzed in the cationic form in less than 1 min. A linear range from 1.46 to 36.4 mu g mL(-1) in acetate buffer solution and a detection limit of 0.11 mu g mL(-1) were achieved. In the amperometric studies, terbinafine was oxidized at +0.85 V with high throughput (225 injection h(-1)) and good linear range (10-100 mu mol L-1). It was also possible to determine the antifungal agent using simultaneous conductometric and potentiometric titrations in the presence of 5% ethanol. The electrochemical methods were applied to the quantification of TerbHCl in different tablet samples; the results were comparable with values indicated by the manufacturer and those found using titrimetry according to the Pharmacopoeia. The electrochemical methods are simple, rapid and an appropriate alternative for quantifying this drug in real samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Suicide rates and income in Sao Paulo and Brazil: a temporal and spatial epidemiologic analysis from 1996 to 2008

Background: In a classical study, Durkheim noted a direct relation between suicide rates and wealth in the XIX century France. Since that time, several studies have verified this relationship. It is known that suicide rates are associated with income, although the direction of this association varies worldwide. Brazil presents a heterogeneous distribution of income and suicide across its territory; however, evaluation for an association between these variables has shown mixed results. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between suicide rates and income in Brazil, State of Sao Paulo (SP), and City of SP, considering geographical area and temporal trends. Methods: Data were extracted from the National and State official statistics departments. Three socioeconomic areas were considered according to income, from the wealthiest (area 1) to the poorest (area 3). We also considered three regions: country-wide (27 Brazilian States and 558 Brazilian micro-regions), state-wide (645 counties of SP State), and city-wide (96 districts of SP city). Relative risks (RR) were calculated among areas 1, 2, and 3 for all regions, in a cross-sectional approach. Then, we used Joinpoint analysis to explore the temporal trends of suicide rates and SaTScan to investigate geographical clusters of high/low suicide rates across the territory. Results: Suicide rates in Brazil, the State of SP, and the city of SP were 6.2, 6.6, and 5.4 per 100,000, respectively. Taking suicide rates of the poorest area (3) as reference, the RR for the wealthiest area was 1.64, 0.88, and 1.65 for Brazil, State of SP, and city of SP, respectively (p for trend <0.05 for all analyses). Spatial cluster of high suicide rates were identified at Brazilian southern (RR = 2.37), state of SP western (RR = 1.32), and city of SP central (RR = 1.65) regions. A direct association between income and suicide were found for Brazil (OR = 2.59) and the city of SP (OR = 1.07), and an inverse association for the state of SP (OR = 0.49). Conclusions: Temporospatial analyses revealed higher suicide rates in wealthier areas in Brazil and the city of SP and in poorer areas in the State of SP. We further discuss the role of socioeconomic characteristics for explaining these discrepancies and the importance of our findings in public health policies. Similar studies in other Brazilian States and developing countries are warranted.

Ameloblastoma demographic, clinical and treatment study - analysis of 40 cases

Dental lesions represent about 1% of oral cavity tumors being ameloblastoma the most common one. It is a tumor of epithelial origin that mainly affects the jaw, and less commonly the maxilla. Its clinical presentation is that of an asymptomatic slow-growing tumor. Despite being a benign tumor, it has an invasive behavior with a high rate of recurrence if not treated properly. Objective: To describe the cases of ameloblastoma in a reference department. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 40 cases. The variables analyzed were: age, gender, ethnicity, tumor location, type of treatment, complications and recurrence. Results: The most affected gender was male - 21 cases (52.5%); with a predominance of Caucasians - 24 cases (60%). The mean age was 35.45 years; the most common location was in.the jaw - 37 cases (92.5%). Facial asymmetry was the most frequent complaint. Of the 40 cases, 33 were submitted to surgery. Of those submitted to surgery, 24 (72.72%) underwent segmental resection, with recurrence in 4 (12.12%) cases. Conclusion: Ameloblastoma may relapse when treatment is not performed with broad surgical resection of the lesion with wide safety margins.

Evaluation of physiologic complexity in time series using generalized sample entropy and surrogate data analysis

Complexity in time series is an intriguing feature of living dynamical systems, with potential use for identification of system state. Although various methods have been proposed for measuring physiologic complexity, uncorrelated time series are often assigned high values of complexity, errouneously classifying them as a complex physiological signals. Here, we propose and discuss a method for complex system analysis based on generalized statistical formalism and surrogate time series. Sample entropy (SampEn) was rewritten inspired in Tsallis generalized entropy, as function of q parameter (qSampEn). qSDiff curves were calculated, which consist of differences between original and surrogate series qSampEn. We evaluated qSDiff for 125 real heart rate variability (HRV) dynamics, divided into groups of 70 healthy, 44 congestive heart failure (CHF), and 11 atrial fibrillation (AF) subjects, and for simulated series of stochastic and chaotic process. The evaluations showed that, for nonperiodic signals, qSDiff curves have a maximum point (qSDiff(max)) for q not equal 1. Values of q where the maximum point occurs and where qSDiff is zero were also evaluated. Only qSDiff(max) values were capable of distinguish HRV groups (p-values 5.10 x 10(-3); 1.11 x 10(-7), and 5.50 x 10(-7) for healthy vs. CHF, healthy vs. AF, and CHF vs. AF, respectively), consistently with the concept of physiologic complexity, and suggests a potential use for chaotic system analysis. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4758815]

Fuzzy Connectedness Image Segmentation in Graph Cut Formulation: A Linear-Time Algorithm and a Comparative Analysis

A deep theoretical analysis of the graph cut image segmentation framework presented in this paper simultaneously translates into important contributions in several directions. The most important practical contribution of this work is a full theoretical description, and implementation, of a novel powerful segmentation algorithm, GC(max). The output of GC(max) coincides with a version of a segmentation algorithm known as Iterative Relative Fuzzy Connectedness, IRFC. However, GC(max) is considerably faster than the classic IRFC algorithm, which we prove theoretically and show experimentally. Specifically, we prove that, in the worst case scenario, the GC(max) algorithm runs in linear time with respect to the variable M=|C|+|Z|, where |C| is the image scene size and |Z| is the size of the allowable range, Z, of the associated weight/affinity function. For most implementations, Z is identical to the set of allowable image intensity values, and its size can be treated as small with respect to |C|, meaning that O(M)=O(|C|). In such a situation, GC(max) runs in linear time with respect to the image size |C|. We show that the output of GC(max) constitutes a solution of a graph cut energy minimization problem, in which the energy is defined as the a"" (a) norm ayenF (P) ayen(a) of the map F (P) that associates, with every element e from the boundary of an object P, its weight w(e). This formulation brings IRFC algorithms to the realm of the graph cut energy minimizers, with energy functions ayenF (P) ayen (q) for qa[1,a]. Of these, the best known minimization problem is for the energy ayenF (P) ayen(1), which is solved by the classic min-cut/max-flow algorithm, referred to often as the Graph Cut algorithm. We notice that a minimization problem for ayenF (P) ayen (q) , qa[1,a), is identical to that for ayenF (P) ayen(1), when the original weight function w is replaced by w (q) . Thus, any algorithm GC(sum) solving the ayenF (P) ayen(1) minimization problem, solves also one for ayenF (P) ayen (q) with qa[1,a), so just two algorithms, GC(sum) and GC(max), are enough to solve all ayenF (P) ayen (q) -minimization problems. We also show that, for any fixed weight assignment, the solutions of the ayenF (P) ayen (q) -minimization problems converge to a solution of the ayenF (P) ayen(a)-minimization problem (ayenF (P) ayen(a)=lim (q -> a)ayenF (P) ayen (q) is not enough to deduce that). An experimental comparison of the performance of GC(max) and GC(sum) algorithms is included. This concentrates on comparing the actual (as opposed to provable worst scenario) algorithms' running time, as well as the influence of the choice of the seeds on the output.

Pre- and Postoperative Quantitative Analysis of Contour Abnormalities in Graves Upper Eyelid Retraction

Purpose: One of the most common problems of the surgical management of Graves upper eyelid retraction is the occurrence of eyelid contour abnormalities. In the present study, the postoperative contour of a large sample of eyelids of patients with Graves orbitopathy was measured. Methods: The postoperative upper eyelid contour of 62 eyes of 43 patients with Graves orbitopathy was subjectively classified by 3 experienced surgeons in 3 categories: poor, fair, and good. The shape of the eyelid contours in each category was then measured with a recently developed custom-made software by measuring multiple midpupil eyelid distances each 15 degrees along the palpebral fissure. The upper eyelid contour of 60 normal subjects was also quantified as a control group. Results: The mean ratio between the sum of the lateral and medial midpupil eyelid distances (lateral/medial ratio) was 1.10 +/- 0.11 standard deviation in controls and 1.15 +/- 0.13 standard deviation in patients. Postoperatively, the mean midpupil eyelid distance at 90 degrees was 4.16 +/- 1.13 mm standard deviation. The distribution lateral/medial ratios of the eyelids judged as having good contours was similar to the distribution of the controls with a modal value centered on the interval between 1.0 and 1.10. The distribution of lateral/medial ratios of the eyelids judged as having poor contour was bimodal, with eyelids with low and high lateral/medial ratios. Low lateral/medial ratios occurred when there was a lateral overcorrection, giving the eyelid a flat or a medial ptosis appearance. High lateral/medial ratios were due to a central or medial overcorrection or a lateral peak maintenance. Conclusions: Postoperative upper eyelid contour abnormalities can be quantified by comparing the sum of multiple midpupil eyelid distances of the lateral and medial sectors of the eyelid. Low and high lateral/medial ratios are anomalous and judged as unpleasant. (Ophthal Plast Reconstr Surg 2012;28:429-433)