Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Seven years of external control of fluoride levels in the public water supply in Bauru, São Paulo, Brazil

Fluoridation of the public water supplies is recognized as among the top ten public health achievements of the twentieth century. However, the positive aspects of this measure depend on the maintenance of fluoride concentrations within adequate levels. To report the results of seven years of external control of the fluoride (F) concentrations in the public water supply in Bauru, SP, Brazil in an attempt to verify, on the basis of risk/benefit balance, whether the levels are appropriate. From March 2004 to February 2011, 60 samples were collected every month from the 19 supply sectors of the city, totaling 4,641 samples. F concentrations in water samples were determined in duplicate, using an ion-specific electrode (Orion 9609) coupled to a potentiometer after buffering with TISAB II. After the analysis, the samples were classified according to the best risk-benefit adjustment. Means (±standard deviation) of F concentrations ranged between 0.73±0.06 and 0.81±0.10 mg/L for the different sectors during the seven years. The individual values ranged between 0.03 and 2.63 mg/L. The percentages of the samples considered “low risk” for dental fluorosis development and of “maximum benefit” for dental caries prevention (0.55-0.84 mg F/L) in the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh years of the study were 82.0, 58.5, 37.4, 61.0, 89.9, 77.3, and 72.4%, respectively, and 69.0% for the entire period. Fluctuations of F levels were found in the public water supply in Bauru during the seven years of evaluation. These results suggest that external monitoring of water fluoridation by an independent assessor should be implemented in cities where there is adjusted fluoridation. This measure should be continued in order to verify that fluoride levels are suitable and, if not, to provide support for the appropriate adjustments

Engineering geological data in support of municipal land use planning-a case study in Analandia, southeast Brazil

This paper presents a method for transforming the information of an engineering geological map into useful information for non-specialists involved in land-use planning. The method consists of classifying the engineering geological units in terms of land use capability and identifying the legal and the geologic restrictions that apply in the study area. Both informations are then superimposed over the land use and a conflict areas map is created. The analysis of these data leads to the identification of existing and forthcoming land use conflicts and enables the proposal of planning measures on a regional and local scale. The map for the regional planning was compiled at a 1:50,000 scale and encompasses the whole municipal land area where uses are mainly rural. The map for the local planning was compiled at a 1:10,000 scale and encompasses the urban area. Most of the classification and operations on maps used spatial analyst tools available in the Geographical Information System. The regional studies showed that the greater part of Analandia's territory presents appropriate land uses. The local-scale studies indicate that the majority of the densely occupied urban areas are in suitable land. Although the situation is in general positive, municipal policies should address the identified and expected land use conflicts, so that it can be further improved.

MAPPING, ORGANIC MATTER MASS AND WATER VOLUME OF A PEATLAND IN SERRA DO ESPINHACO MERIDIONAL

Peatlands form in areas where net primary of organic matter production exceeds losses due to the decomposition, leaching or disturbance. Due to their chemical and physical characteristics, bogs can influence water dynamics because they can store large volumes of water in the rainy season and gradually release this water during the other months of the year. In Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Brazil, a peatland in the environmental protection area of Pau-de-Fruta ensures the water supply of 40,000 inhabitants. The hypothesis of this study is that the peat bogs in Pau-de-Fruta act as an environment for carbon storage and a regulator of water flow in the Corrego das Pedras basin. The objective of this study was to estimate the water volume and organic matter mass in this peatland and to study the influence of this environment on the water flow in the Corrego das Pedras basin. The peatland was mapped using 57 transects, at intervals of 100 m. Along all transects, the depth of the peat bog, the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates and altitude were recorded every 20 m and used to calculate the area and volume of the peatland. The water volume was estimated, using a method developed in this study, and the mass of organic matter based on samples from 106 profiles. The peatland covered 81.7 hectares (ha), and stored 497,767 m(3) of water, representing 83.7 % of the total volume of the peat bog. The total amount of organic matter (OM) was 45,148 t, corresponding to 552 t ha(-1) of OM. The peat bog occupies 11.9 % of the area covered by the Corrego das Pedras basin and stores 77.6 % of the annual water surplus, thus controlling the water flow in the basin and consequently regulating the water course.

Evolution in access to fluoridated water in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, from the 1950s to the early 21st century

Access to fluoridated water is a known protective factor against dental caries. In 1974, fluoridation of the public water supply became mandatory by law in Brazil, resulting in improved coverage, especially in more developed regions of the country. Coverage increased across the country as a priority under the national oral health policy. This article systematizes information on the implementation and expansion of fluoridation in Sao Paulo State from 1956 to 2009, using secondary data from technical reports, official documents, and the Information System for Surveillance of Water Quality for Human Consumption (SISAGUA). In 2009, fluoridation covered 546 of 645 counties in Sao Paulo State (84.7%), reaching 85.1% of the total population and 93.5% of the population with access to the public water supply. The results indicate that fluoridation has been consolidated as part of State health policy. However, the challenge remains to implement and maintain fluoridation in 99 counties, benefiting 6.2 million inhabitants that are still excluded from this service.

Optimization of Large-Scale Hydrothermal System Operation

This paper presents the development of a mathematical model to optimize the management and operation of the Brazilian hydrothermal system. The system consists of a large set of individual hydropower plants and a set of aggregated thermal plants. The energy generated in the system is interconnected by a transmission network so it can be transmitted to centers of consumption throughout the country. The optimization model offered is capable of handling different types of constraints, such as interbasin water transfers, water supply for various purposes, and environmental requirements. Its overall objective is to produce energy to meet the country's demand at a minimum cost. Called HIDROTERM, the model integrates a database with basic hydrological and technical information to run the optimization model, and provides an interface to manage the input and output data. The optimization model uses the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) package and can invoke different linear as well as nonlinear programming solvers. The optimization model was applied to the Brazilian hydrothermal system, one of the largest in the world. The system is divided into four subsystems with 127 active hydropower plants. Preliminary results under different scenarios of inflow, demand, and installed capacity demonstrate the efficiency and utility of the model. From this and other case studies in Brazil, the results indicate that the methodology developed is suitable to different applications, such as planning operation, capacity expansion, and operational rule studies, and trade-off analysis among multiple water users. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000149. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR SIMULATING MAIZE YIELD

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment.

Mapping, organic matter mass and water volume of a peatland in Serra do Espinhaço Meridional

Peatlands form in areas where net primary of organic matter production exceeds losses due to the decomposition, leaching or disturbance. Due to their chemical and physical characteristics, bogs can influence water dynamics because they can store large volumes of water in the rainy season and gradually release this water during the other months of the year. In Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Brazil, a peatland in the environmental protection area of Pau-de-Fruta ensures the water supply of 40,000 inhabitants. The hypothesis of this study is that the peat bogs in Pau-de-Fruta act as an environment for carbon storage and a regulator of water flow in the Córrego das Pedras basin. The objective of this study was to estimate the water volume and organic matter mass in this peatland and to study the influence of this environment on the water flow in the Córrego das Pedras basin. The peatland was mapped using 57 transects, at intervals of 100 m. Along all transects, the depth of the peat bog, the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates and altitude were recorded every 20 m and used to calculate the area and volume of the peatland. The water volume was estimated, using a method developed in this study, and the mass of organic matter based on samples from 106 profiles. The peatland covered 81.7 hectares (ha), and stored 497,767 m³ of water, representing 83.7 % of the total volume of the peat bog. The total amount of organic matter (OM) was 45,148 t, corresponding to 552 t ha-1 of OM. The peat bog occupies 11.9 % of the area covered by the Córrego das Pedras basin and stores 77.6 % of the annual water surplus, thus controlling the water flow in the basin and consequently regulating the water course.