Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Seven years of external control of fluoride levels in the public water supply in Bauru, São Paulo, Brazil

Fluoridation of the public water supplies is recognized as among the top ten public health achievements of the twentieth century. However, the positive aspects of this measure depend on the maintenance of fluoride concentrations within adequate levels. To report the results of seven years of external control of the fluoride (F) concentrations in the public water supply in Bauru, SP, Brazil in an attempt to verify, on the basis of risk/benefit balance, whether the levels are appropriate. From March 2004 to February 2011, 60 samples were collected every month from the 19 supply sectors of the city, totaling 4,641 samples. F concentrations in water samples were determined in duplicate, using an ion-specific electrode (Orion 9609) coupled to a potentiometer after buffering with TISAB II. After the analysis, the samples were classified according to the best risk-benefit adjustment. Means (±standard deviation) of F concentrations ranged between 0.73±0.06 and 0.81±0.10 mg/L for the different sectors during the seven years. The individual values ranged between 0.03 and 2.63 mg/L. The percentages of the samples considered “low risk” for dental fluorosis development and of “maximum benefit” for dental caries prevention (0.55-0.84 mg F/L) in the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh years of the study were 82.0, 58.5, 37.4, 61.0, 89.9, 77.3, and 72.4%, respectively, and 69.0% for the entire period. Fluctuations of F levels were found in the public water supply in Bauru during the seven years of evaluation. These results suggest that external monitoring of water fluoridation by an independent assessor should be implemented in cities where there is adjusted fluoridation. This measure should be continued in order to verify that fluoride levels are suitable and, if not, to provide support for the appropriate adjustments

The Dynamics of a frictionally-dominated Amazonian estuary

The hydrodynamics, morphology and sedimentology of the Taperacu estuary were investigated. This is one of several estuaries located within the largest mangrove fringe in the world, bordering the Amazon region, subject to a macrotidal regime and regionally atypical negligible fresh water supply. The results reveal widespread sand banks that occupy the central portion of the estuarine cross-section. Well-sorted very fine sandy sediments of marine origin prevail. Shorter flood phases, with substantially higher current velocities, were observed in the upper sector of Taperacu, as expected for a shallow, friction-dominated estuary. However, ebb domination can be expected for estuaries with large associated mangrove areas and substantial estuarine infilling, both of which situations occur on the Taperacu. The tidal asymmetry favoring flood currents could be the result of the absence of an effective fluvial discharge. Furthermore, it was observed that the Taperacu is connected by tidal creeks to the neighboring Caete estuary, allowing a stronger flux during the flood and intensifying the higher flood currents. As a whole, the results have shown a complex interaction of morphological aspects (friction, fluvial drainage, connections with neighbor estuaries, infilling and large storage area) in determining hydrodynamic patterns, thus improving the understanding of Amazon estuaries.

MAPPING, ORGANIC MATTER MASS AND WATER VOLUME OF A PEATLAND IN SERRA DO ESPINHACO MERIDIONAL

Peatlands form in areas where net primary of organic matter production exceeds losses due to the decomposition, leaching or disturbance. Due to their chemical and physical characteristics, bogs can influence water dynamics because they can store large volumes of water in the rainy season and gradually release this water during the other months of the year. In Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Brazil, a peatland in the environmental protection area of Pau-de-Fruta ensures the water supply of 40,000 inhabitants. The hypothesis of this study is that the peat bogs in Pau-de-Fruta act as an environment for carbon storage and a regulator of water flow in the Corrego das Pedras basin. The objective of this study was to estimate the water volume and organic matter mass in this peatland and to study the influence of this environment on the water flow in the Corrego das Pedras basin. The peatland was mapped using 57 transects, at intervals of 100 m. Along all transects, the depth of the peat bog, the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates and altitude were recorded every 20 m and used to calculate the area and volume of the peatland. The water volume was estimated, using a method developed in this study, and the mass of organic matter based on samples from 106 profiles. The peatland covered 81.7 hectares (ha), and stored 497,767 m(3) of water, representing 83.7 % of the total volume of the peat bog. The total amount of organic matter (OM) was 45,148 t, corresponding to 552 t ha(-1) of OM. The peat bog occupies 11.9 % of the area covered by the Corrego das Pedras basin and stores 77.6 % of the annual water surplus, thus controlling the water flow in the basin and consequently regulating the water course.

Evolution in access to fluoridated water in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, from the 1950s to the early 21st century

Access to fluoridated water is a known protective factor against dental caries. In 1974, fluoridation of the public water supply became mandatory by law in Brazil, resulting in improved coverage, especially in more developed regions of the country. Coverage increased across the country as a priority under the national oral health policy. This article systematizes information on the implementation and expansion of fluoridation in Sao Paulo State from 1956 to 2009, using secondary data from technical reports, official documents, and the Information System for Surveillance of Water Quality for Human Consumption (SISAGUA). In 2009, fluoridation covered 546 of 645 counties in Sao Paulo State (84.7%), reaching 85.1% of the total population and 93.5% of the population with access to the public water supply. The results indicate that fluoridation has been consolidated as part of State health policy. However, the challenge remains to implement and maintain fluoridation in 99 counties, benefiting 6.2 million inhabitants that are still excluded from this service.

Effect of alkyl chain length of alcohols on nematic uniaxial-to-biaxial phase transitions in a potassium laurate/alcohol/K2SO4/water lyotropic mixture

Lyotropic liquid crystalline quaternary mixtures of potassium laurate (KL), potassium sulphate (K2SO4)/alcohol (n-OH)/water, with the alcohols having different numbers of carbon atoms in the alkyl chain (n), from 1-octanol to 1-hexadecanol, were investigated by optical techniques (optical microscopy and laser conoscopy). The biaxial nematic phase domain is present in a window of values of n = n(KL) +/- 2, where n(KL) = 11 is the number of carbon atoms in the alkyl chain of KL. The biaxial phase domain became smaller and the uniaxial-to-biaxial phase transition temperatures shifted to relatively higher temperatures upon going from 1-nonanol to 1-tridecanol. Moreover, compared with other lyotropic mixtures these new mixtures present high birefringence values, which we expect to be related to the micellar shape anisotropy. Our results are interpreted assuming that alcohol molecules tend to segregate in the micelles in a way that depends on the relative value of n with respect to nKL. The larger the value of n, the more alcohol molecules tend to be located in the curved parts of the micelle, favoring the uniaxial nematic calamitic phase with respect to the biaxial and uniaxial discotic nematic phases.

Identification of bacteria in drinking and purified water during the monitoring of a typical water purification system

Abstract Background A typical purification system that provides purified water which meets ionic and organic chemical standards, must be protected from microbial proliferation to minimize cross-contamination for use in cleaning and preparations in pharmaceutical industries and in health environments. Methodology Samples of water were taken directly from the public distribution water tank at twelve different stages of a typical purification system were analyzed for the identification of isolated bacteria. Two miniature kits were used: (i) identification system (api 20 NE, Bio-Mérieux) for non-enteric and non-fermenting gram-negative rods; and (ii) identification system (BBL crystal, Becton and Dickson) for enteric and non-fermenting gram-negative rods. The efficiency of the chemical sanitizers used in the stages of the system, over the isolated and identified bacteria in the sampling water, was evaluated by the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) method. Results The 78 isolated colonies were identified as the following bacteria genera: Pseudomonas, Flavobacterium and Acinetobacter. According to the miniature kits used in the identification, there was a prevalence of isolation of P. aeruginosa 32.05%, P. picketti (Ralstonia picketti) 23.08%, P. vesiculares 12.82%,P. diminuta 11.54%, F. aureum 6.42%, P. fluorescens 5.13%, A. lwoffi 2.56%, P. putida 2.56%, P. alcaligenes 1.28%, P. paucimobilis 1.28%, and F. multivorum 1.28%. Conclusions We found that research was required for the identification of gram-negative non-fermenting bacteria, which were isolated from drinking water and water purification systems, since Pseudomonas genera represents opportunistic pathogens which disperse and adhere easily to surfaces, forming a biofilm which interferes with the cleaning and disinfection procedures in hospital and industrial environments.

Mapping, organic matter mass and water volume of a peatland in Serra do Espinhaço Meridional

Peatlands form in areas where net primary of organic matter production exceeds losses due to the decomposition, leaching or disturbance. Due to their chemical and physical characteristics, bogs can influence water dynamics because they can store large volumes of water in the rainy season and gradually release this water during the other months of the year. In Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Brazil, a peatland in the environmental protection area of Pau-de-Fruta ensures the water supply of 40,000 inhabitants. The hypothesis of this study is that the peat bogs in Pau-de-Fruta act as an environment for carbon storage and a regulator of water flow in the Córrego das Pedras basin. The objective of this study was to estimate the water volume and organic matter mass in this peatland and to study the influence of this environment on the water flow in the Córrego das Pedras basin. The peatland was mapped using 57 transects, at intervals of 100 m. Along all transects, the depth of the peat bog, the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates and altitude were recorded every 20 m and used to calculate the area and volume of the peatland. The water volume was estimated, using a method developed in this study, and the mass of organic matter based on samples from 106 profiles. The peatland covered 81.7 hectares (ha), and stored 497,767 m³ of water, representing 83.7 % of the total volume of the peat bog. The total amount of organic matter (OM) was 45,148 t, corresponding to 552 t ha-1 of OM. The peat bog occupies 11.9 % of the area covered by the Córrego das Pedras basin and stores 77.6 % of the annual water surplus, thus controlling the water flow in the basin and consequently regulating the water course.