Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Chemical resistance of the gram-negative bacteria to different sanitizers in a water purification system

Abstract Background Purified water for pharmaceutical purposes must be free of microbial contamination and pyrogens. Even with the additional sanitary and disinfecting treatments applied to the system (sequential operational stages), Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Pseudomonas alcaligenes, Pseudomonas picketti, Flavobacterium aureum, Acinetobacter lowffi and Pseudomonas diminuta were isolated and identified from a thirteen-stage purification system. To evaluate the efficacy of the chemical agents used in the disinfecting process along with those used to adjust chemical characteristics of the system, over the identified bacteria, the kinetic parameter of killing time (D-value) necessary to inactivate 90% of the initial bioburden (decimal reduction time) was experimentally determined. Methods Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Pseudomonas alcaligenes, Pseudomonas picketti, Flavobacterium aureum, Acinetobacter lowffi and Pseudomonas diminuta were called in house (wild) bacteria. Pseudomonas diminuta ATCC 11568, Pseudomonas alcaligenes INCQS , Pseudomonas aeruginosa ATCC 15442, Pseudomonas fluorescens ATCC 3178, Pseudomonas picketti ATCC 5031, Bacillus subtilis ATCC 937 and Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 were used as 'standard' bacteria to evaluate resistance at 25°C against either 0.5% citric acid, 0.5% hydrochloric acid, 70% ethanol, 0.5% sodium bisulfite, 0.4% sodium hydroxide, 0.5% sodium hypochlorite, or a mixture of 2.2% hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and 0.45% peracetic acid. Results The efficacy of the sanitizers varied with concentration and contact time to reduce decimal logarithmic (log10) population (n cycles). To kill 90% of the initial population (or one log10 cycle), the necessary time (D-value) was for P. aeruginosa into: (i) 0.5% citric acid, D = 3.8 min; (ii) 0.5% hydrochloric acid, D = 6.9 min; (iii) 70% ethanol, D = 9.7 min; (iv) 0.5% sodium bisulfite, D = 5.3 min; (v) 0.4% sodium hydroxide, D = 14.2 min; (vi) 0.5% sodium hypochlorite, D = 7.9 min; (vii) mixture of hydrogen peroxide (2.2%) plus peracetic acid (0.45%), D = 5.5 min. Conclusion The contact time of 180 min of the system with the mixture of H2O2+ peracetic acid, a total theoretical reduction of 6 log10 cycles was attained in the water purified storage tank and distribution loop. The contact time between the water purification system (WPS) and the sanitary agents should be reviewed to reach sufficient bioburden reduction (over 6 log10).

Identification of bacteria in drinking and purified water during the monitoring of a typical water purification system

Abstract Background A typical purification system that provides purified water which meets ionic and organic chemical standards, must be protected from microbial proliferation to minimize cross-contamination for use in cleaning and preparations in pharmaceutical industries and in health environments. Methodology Samples of water were taken directly from the public distribution water tank at twelve different stages of a typical purification system were analyzed for the identification of isolated bacteria. Two miniature kits were used: (i) identification system (api 20 NE, Bio-Mérieux) for non-enteric and non-fermenting gram-negative rods; and (ii) identification system (BBL crystal, Becton and Dickson) for enteric and non-fermenting gram-negative rods. The efficiency of the chemical sanitizers used in the stages of the system, over the isolated and identified bacteria in the sampling water, was evaluated by the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) method. Results The 78 isolated colonies were identified as the following bacteria genera: Pseudomonas, Flavobacterium and Acinetobacter. According to the miniature kits used in the identification, there was a prevalence of isolation of P. aeruginosa 32.05%, P. picketti (Ralstonia picketti) 23.08%, P. vesiculares 12.82%,P. diminuta 11.54%, F. aureum 6.42%, P. fluorescens 5.13%, A. lwoffi 2.56%, P. putida 2.56%, P. alcaligenes 1.28%, P. paucimobilis 1.28%, and F. multivorum 1.28%. Conclusions We found that research was required for the identification of gram-negative non-fermenting bacteria, which were isolated from drinking water and water purification systems, since Pseudomonas genera represents opportunistic pathogens which disperse and adhere easily to surfaces, forming a biofilm which interferes with the cleaning and disinfection procedures in hospital and industrial environments.

Seven years of external control of fluoride levels in the public water supply in Bauru, São Paulo, Brazil

Fluoridation of the public water supplies is recognized as among the top ten public health achievements of the twentieth century. However, the positive aspects of this measure depend on the maintenance of fluoride concentrations within adequate levels. To report the results of seven years of external control of the fluoride (F) concentrations in the public water supply in Bauru, SP, Brazil in an attempt to verify, on the basis of risk/benefit balance, whether the levels are appropriate. From March 2004 to February 2011, 60 samples were collected every month from the 19 supply sectors of the city, totaling 4,641 samples. F concentrations in water samples were determined in duplicate, using an ion-specific electrode (Orion 9609) coupled to a potentiometer after buffering with TISAB II. After the analysis, the samples were classified according to the best risk-benefit adjustment. Means (±standard deviation) of F concentrations ranged between 0.73±0.06 and 0.81±0.10 mg/L for the different sectors during the seven years. The individual values ranged between 0.03 and 2.63 mg/L. The percentages of the samples considered “low risk” for dental fluorosis development and of “maximum benefit” for dental caries prevention (0.55-0.84 mg F/L) in the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh years of the study were 82.0, 58.5, 37.4, 61.0, 89.9, 77.3, and 72.4%, respectively, and 69.0% for the entire period. Fluctuations of F levels were found in the public water supply in Bauru during the seven years of evaluation. These results suggest that external monitoring of water fluoridation by an independent assessor should be implemented in cities where there is adjusted fluoridation. This measure should be continued in order to verify that fluoride levels are suitable and, if not, to provide support for the appropriate adjustments

Evolution in access to fluoridated water in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, from the 1950s to the early 21st century

Access to fluoridated water is a known protective factor against dental caries. In 1974, fluoridation of the public water supply became mandatory by law in Brazil, resulting in improved coverage, especially in more developed regions of the country. Coverage increased across the country as a priority under the national oral health policy. This article systematizes information on the implementation and expansion of fluoridation in Sao Paulo State from 1956 to 2009, using secondary data from technical reports, official documents, and the Information System for Surveillance of Water Quality for Human Consumption (SISAGUA). In 2009, fluoridation covered 546 of 645 counties in Sao Paulo State (84.7%), reaching 85.1% of the total population and 93.5% of the population with access to the public water supply. The results indicate that fluoridation has been consolidated as part of State health policy. However, the challenge remains to implement and maintain fluoridation in 99 counties, benefiting 6.2 million inhabitants that are still excluded from this service.

Optimization of Large-Scale Hydrothermal System Operation

This paper presents the development of a mathematical model to optimize the management and operation of the Brazilian hydrothermal system. The system consists of a large set of individual hydropower plants and a set of aggregated thermal plants. The energy generated in the system is interconnected by a transmission network so it can be transmitted to centers of consumption throughout the country. The optimization model offered is capable of handling different types of constraints, such as interbasin water transfers, water supply for various purposes, and environmental requirements. Its overall objective is to produce energy to meet the country's demand at a minimum cost. Called HIDROTERM, the model integrates a database with basic hydrological and technical information to run the optimization model, and provides an interface to manage the input and output data. The optimization model uses the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) package and can invoke different linear as well as nonlinear programming solvers. The optimization model was applied to the Brazilian hydrothermal system, one of the largest in the world. The system is divided into four subsystems with 127 active hydropower plants. Preliminary results under different scenarios of inflow, demand, and installed capacity demonstrate the efficiency and utility of the model. From this and other case studies in Brazil, the results indicate that the methodology developed is suitable to different applications, such as planning operation, capacity expansion, and operational rule studies, and trade-off analysis among multiple water users. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000149. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

MAPPING, ORGANIC MATTER MASS AND WATER VOLUME OF A PEATLAND IN SERRA DO ESPINHACO MERIDIONAL

Peatlands form in areas where net primary of organic matter production exceeds losses due to the decomposition, leaching or disturbance. Due to their chemical and physical characteristics, bogs can influence water dynamics because they can store large volumes of water in the rainy season and gradually release this water during the other months of the year. In Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Brazil, a peatland in the environmental protection area of Pau-de-Fruta ensures the water supply of 40,000 inhabitants. The hypothesis of this study is that the peat bogs in Pau-de-Fruta act as an environment for carbon storage and a regulator of water flow in the Corrego das Pedras basin. The objective of this study was to estimate the water volume and organic matter mass in this peatland and to study the influence of this environment on the water flow in the Corrego das Pedras basin. The peatland was mapped using 57 transects, at intervals of 100 m. Along all transects, the depth of the peat bog, the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates and altitude were recorded every 20 m and used to calculate the area and volume of the peatland. The water volume was estimated, using a method developed in this study, and the mass of organic matter based on samples from 106 profiles. The peatland covered 81.7 hectares (ha), and stored 497,767 m(3) of water, representing 83.7 % of the total volume of the peat bog. The total amount of organic matter (OM) was 45,148 t, corresponding to 552 t ha(-1) of OM. The peat bog occupies 11.9 % of the area covered by the Corrego das Pedras basin and stores 77.6 % of the annual water surplus, thus controlling the water flow in the basin and consequently regulating the water course.

Mapping, organic matter mass and water volume of a peatland in Serra do Espinhaço Meridional

Peatlands form in areas where net primary of organic matter production exceeds losses due to the decomposition, leaching or disturbance. Due to their chemical and physical characteristics, bogs can influence water dynamics because they can store large volumes of water in the rainy season and gradually release this water during the other months of the year. In Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Brazil, a peatland in the environmental protection area of Pau-de-Fruta ensures the water supply of 40,000 inhabitants. The hypothesis of this study is that the peat bogs in Pau-de-Fruta act as an environment for carbon storage and a regulator of water flow in the Córrego das Pedras basin. The objective of this study was to estimate the water volume and organic matter mass in this peatland and to study the influence of this environment on the water flow in the Córrego das Pedras basin. The peatland was mapped using 57 transects, at intervals of 100 m. Along all transects, the depth of the peat bog, the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates and altitude were recorded every 20 m and used to calculate the area and volume of the peatland. The water volume was estimated, using a method developed in this study, and the mass of organic matter based on samples from 106 profiles. The peatland covered 81.7 hectares (ha), and stored 497,767 m³ of water, representing 83.7 % of the total volume of the peat bog. The total amount of organic matter (OM) was 45,148 t, corresponding to 552 t ha-1 of OM. The peat bog occupies 11.9 % of the area covered by the Córrego das Pedras basin and stores 77.6 % of the annual water surplus, thus controlling the water flow in the basin and consequently regulating the water course.