A general threshold stress hybrid hazard model for lifetime data

In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

Impact of FLT3 Internal Tandem Duplication on the Outcome of Related and Unrelated Hematopoietic Transplantation for Adult Acute Myeloid Leukemia in First Remission: A Retrospective Analysis

Purpose Patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and FLT3/internal tandem duplication (FLT3/ITD) have poor prognosis if treated with chemotherapy only. Whether this alteration also affects outcome after allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) remains uncertain. Patients and Methods We analyzed 206 patients who underwent HLA-identical sibling and matched unrelated HSCTs reported to the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation with a diagnosis of AML with normal cytogenetics and data on FLT3/ITD (present: n = 120, 58%; absent: n = 86, 42%). Transplantations were performed in first complete remission (CR) after myeloablative conditioning. Results Compared with FLT3/ITD-negative patients, FLT3/ITD-positive patients had higher median leukocyte count at diagnosis (59 v 21 x 10(9)/L; P < .001) and shorter interval from CR to transplantation (87 v 99 days; P = .04). Other characteristics were similar in the two groups. At 2 years, relapse incidence (RI; +/- standard deviation) was higher (30% +/- 5% v 16% +/- 5%; P = .006) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) lower (58% +/- 5% v 71% +/- 6%; P = .04) in FLT3/ITD-positive compared with FLT3/ITD-negative patients. In multivariate analyses, FLT3/ITD led to increased RI (hazard ratio [HR], 3.4; 95% CI, 1.46 to 7.94; P = .005), as did older age, female sex, shorter interval between CR and transplantation, and higher number of chemotherapy courses before achieving CR. FLT3/ITD positivity was associated with decreased LFS (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.73; P = .002), along with older age and higher number of chemotherapy courses before achieving CR. Conclusion FLT3/ITD adversely affected the outcome of HSCT in the same direction it does after chemotherapy; despite this, more than half of the patients harboring this mutation who received transplants were alive and leukemia free at 2 years. To further improve the results, use of FLT3 inhibitors before or after HSCT deserves investigation.

Overall Survival Improvement in Patients with Lung Cancer and Bone Metastases Treated with Denosumab Versus Zoledronic Acid Subgroup Analysis from a Randomized Phase 3 Study

Introduction: Denosumab, a fully human anti-RANKL monoclonal antibody, reduces the incidence of skeletal-related events in patients with bone metastases from solid tumors. We present survival data for the subset of patients with lung cancer, participating in the phase 3 trial of denosumab versus zoledronic acid (ZA) in the treatment of bone metastases from solid tumors (except breast or prostate) or multiple myeloma. Methods: Patients were randomized 1:1 to receive monthly subcutaneous denosumab 120 mg or intravenous ZA 4 mg. An exploratory analysis, using Kaplan-Meier estimates and proportional hazards models, was performed for overall survival among patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and SCLC. Results: Denosumab was associated with improved median overall survival versus ZA in 811 patients with any lung cancer (8.9 versus 7.7 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.80) and in 702 patients with NSCLC (9.5 versus 8.0 months; HR 0.78) (p = 0.01, each comparison). Further analysis of NSCLC by histological type showed a median survival of 8.6 months for denosumab versus 6.4 months for ZA in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (HR 0.68; p = 0.035). Incidence of overall adverse events was balanced between treatment groups; serious adverse events occurred in 66.0% of denosumab-treated patients and 72.9% of ZA-treated patients. Cumulative incidence of osteonecrosis of the jaw was similar between groups (0.7% denosumab versus 0.8% ZA). Hypocalcemia rates were 8.6% with denosumab and 3.8% with ZA. Conclusion: In this exploratory analysis, denosumab was associated with improved overall survival compared with ZA, in patients with metastatic lung cancer.

INFERENCES FOR THE CHANGE-POINT OF THE EXPONENTIATED WEIBULL HAZARD FUNCTION

In many applications of lifetime data analysis, it is important to perform inferences about the change-point of the hazard function. The change-point could be a maximum for unimodal hazard functions or a minimum for bathtub forms of hazard functions and is usually of great interest in medical or industrial applications. For lifetime distributions where this change-point of the hazard function can be analytically calculated, its maximum likelihood estimator is easily obtained from the invariance properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. From the asymptotical normality of the maximum likelihood estimators, confidence intervals can also be obtained. Considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution for the lifetime data, we have different forms for the hazard function: constant, increasing, unimodal, decreasing or bathtub forms. This model gives great flexibility of fit, but we do not have analytic expressions for the change-point of the hazard function. In this way, we consider the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to get posterior summaries for the change-point of the hazard function considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution.

Rationale, study design, and analysis plan of the Alveolar Recruitment for ARDS Trial (ART): Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is associated with high in-hospital mortality. Alveolar recruitment followed by ventilation at optimal titrated PEEP may reduce ventilator-induced lung injury and improve oxygenation in patients with ARDS, but the effects on mortality and other clinical outcomes remain unknown. This article reports the rationale, study design, and analysis plan of the Alveolar Recruitment for ARDS Trial (ART). Methods/Design: ART is a pragmatic, multicenter, randomized (concealed), controlled trial, which aims to determine if maximum stepwise alveolar recruitment associated with PEEP titration is able to increase 28-day survival in patients with ARDS compared to conventional treatment (ARDSNet strategy). We will enroll adult patients with ARDS of less than 72 h duration. The intervention group will receive an alveolar recruitment maneuver, with stepwise increases of PEEP achieving 45 cmH(2)O and peak pressure of 60 cmH2O, followed by ventilation with optimal PEEP titrated according to the static compliance of the respiratory system. In the control group, mechanical ventilation will follow a conventional protocol (ARDSNet). In both groups, we will use controlled volume mode with low tidal volumes (4 to 6 mL/kg of predicted body weight) and targeting plateau pressure <= 30 cmH2O. The primary outcome is 28-day survival, and the secondary outcomes are: length of ICU stay; length of hospital stay; pneumothorax requiring chest tube during first 7 days; barotrauma during first 7 days; mechanical ventilation-free days from days 1 to 28; ICU, in-hospital, and 6-month survival. ART is an event-guided trial planned to last until 520 events (deaths within 28 days) are observed. These events allow detection of a hazard ratio of 0.75, with 90% power and two-tailed type I error of 5%. All analysis will follow the intention-to-treat principle. Discussion: If the ART strategy with maximum recruitment and PEEP titration improves 28-day survival, this will represent a notable advance to the care of ARDS patients. Conversely, if the ART strategy is similar or inferior to the current evidence-based strategy (ARDSNet), this should also change current practice as many institutions routinely employ recruitment maneuvers and set PEEP levels according to some titration method.

Rivaroxaban compared with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischaemic attack: a subgroup analysis of ROCKET AF

Background In ROCKET AF, rivaroxaban was non-inferior to adjusted-dose warfarin in preventing stroke or systemic embolism among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to investigate whether the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban compared with warfarin is consistent among the subgroups of patients with and without previous stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA). Methods In ROCKET AF, patients with AF who were at increased risk of stroke were randomly assigned (1:1) in a double-blind manner to rivaroxaban 20 mg daily or adjusted dose warfarin (international normalised ratio 2-0-3.0). Patients and investigators were masked to treatment allocation. Between Dec 18,2006, and June 17,2009,14 264 patients from 1178 centres in 45 countries were randomly assigned. The primary endpoint was the composite of stroke or non-CNS systemic embolism. In this substudy we assessed the interaction of the treatment effects of rivaroxaban and warfarin among patients with and without previous stroke or TIA. Efficacy analyses were by intention to treat and safety analyses were done in the on-treatment population. ROCKET AF is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00403767. Findings 7468 (52%) patients had a previous stroke (n=4907) or TIA (n=2561) and 6796 (48%) had no previous stroke or TIA. The number of events per 100 person-years for the primary endpoint in patients treated with rivaroxaban compared with warfarin was consistent among patients with previous stroke or TIA (2.79% rivaroxaban vs 2.96% warfarin; hazard ratio [HR] 0-94,95% CI 0.77-1.16) and those without (1.44% vs 1.88%; 0.77, 0.58-1-01; interaction p=0.23). The number of major and non-major clinically relevant bleeding events per 100 person-years in patients treated with rivaroxaban compared with warfarin was consistent among patients with previous stroke or TIA (13.31% rivaroxaban vs 13.87% warfarin; HR 0.96,95% CI 0.87-1-07) and those without (16.69% vs 15.19%; 1.10, 0.99-1.21; interaction p=0.08). Interpretation There was no evidence that the relative efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban compared with warfarin was different between patients who had a previous stroke or TIA and those who had no previous stroke or TIA. These results support the use of rivaroxaban as an alternative to warfarin for prevention of recurrent as well as initial stroke in patients with AF.

Impact of pretransplant minimal residual disease after cord blood transplantation for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in remission: an Eurocord, PDWP-EBMT analysis

To address the prognostic value of minimal residual disease (MRD) before unrelated cord blood transplantation (UCBT) in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), we analyzed 170 ALL children transplanted in complete remission (CR) after myeloablative conditioning regimen. In all, 72 (43%) were in first CR (CR1), 77 (45%) in second CR (CR2) and 21 (12%) in third CR (CR3). The median interval from MRD quantification to UCBT was 18 days. All patients received single-unit UCBT. Median follow-up was 4 years. Cumulative incidence (CI) of day-60 neutrophil engraftment was 85%. CI of 4 years relapse was 30%, incidence being lower in patients with negative MRD before UCBT (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.4, P = 0.01) and for those transplanted in CR1 and CR2 (HR = 0.3, P = 0.002). Probability of 4 years leukemia-free survival (LFS) was 44%, (56, 44 and 14% for patients transplanted in CR1, CR2 and CR3, respectively (P = 0.0001)). Patients with negative MRD before UCBT had better LFS after UCBT compared with those with positive MRD (54% vs 29%; HR = 2, P = 0.003). MRD assessment before UCBT for children with ALL in remission allows identifying patients at higher risk of relapse after transplantation. Approaches that may decrease relapse incidence in children given UCBT with positive MRD should be investigated to improve final outcomes. Leukemia (2012) 26, 2455-2461; doi:10.1038/leu.2012.123