Mosquitoes in degraded and preserved areas of the Atlantic Forest and potential for vector-borne disease risk in the municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In order to assess the epidemiological potential of the Culicidae species in remaining areas of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, specimens of this family were collected in wild and anthropic environments. A total of 9,403 adult mosquitoes was collected from May, 2009 to June, 2010. The most prevalent among species collected in the wild environment were Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii, the Melanoconion section of Culex (Melanoconion), and Aedes serratus, while the most common in the anthropic site were Coquillettidia chrysonotum/albifera, Culex (Culex) Coronator group, and An. (Ker.) cruzii. Mosquito richness was similar between environments, although the abundance of individuals from different species varied. When comparing diversity patterns between environments, anthropic sites exhibited higher richness and evenness, suggesting that environmental stress increased the number of favorable niches for culicids, promoting diversity. Increased abundance of opportunistic species in the anthropic environment enhances contact with culicids that transmit vector-borne diseases.

Stochastic lattice model describing a vector-borne disease

We employ the approach of stochastic dynamics to describe the dissemination of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, and we focus our attention on the characterization of the threshold of the epidemic. The coexistence space comprises two representative spatial structures for both human and mosquito populations. The human population has its evolution described by a process that is similar to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics. The population of mosquitoes follows a dynamic of the type of the Susceptible Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. The coexistence space is a bipartite lattice constituted by two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations for the densities and the two-site correlations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. We present a precise deØnition of the reproductive ratio which reveals the importance of the correlations developed in the early stage of the disease. According to our deØnition, the reproductive rate is directed related to the conditional probability of the occurrence of a susceptible human (mosquito) given the presence in the neighborhood of an infected mosquito (human). The threshold of the epidemic as well as the phase transition between the epidemic and the non-epidemic states are also obtained by performing Monte Carlo simulations. References: [1] David R. de Souza, T^ania Tom∂e, , Suani R. T. Pinho, Florisneide R. Barreto and M∂ario J. de Oliveira, Phys. Rev. E 87, 012709 (2013). [2] D. R. de Souza, T. Tom∂e and R. M. ZiÆ, J. Stat. Mech. P03006 (2011).

Geographical distribution of American cutaneous leishmaniasis and its phlebotomine vectors (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract Background American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is a re-emerging disease in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. It is important to understand both the vector and disease distribution to help design control strategies. As an initial step in applying geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) tools to map disease-risk, the objectives of the present work were to: (i) produce a single database of species distributions of the sand fly vectors in the state of São Paulo, (ii) create combined distributional maps of both the incidence of ACL and its sand fly vectors, and (iii) thereby provide individual municipalities with a source of reference material for work carried out in their area. Results A database containing 910 individual records of sand fly occurrence in the state of São Paulo, from 37 different sources, was compiled. These records date from between 1943 to 2009, and describe the presence of at least one of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vector species in 183/645 (28.4%) municipalities. For the remaining 462 (71.6%) municipalities, we were unable to locate records of any of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vector species (Nyssomyia intermedia, N. neivai, N. whitmani, Pintomyia fischeri, P. pessoai and Migonemyia migonei). The distribution of each of the six incriminated or suspected vector species of ACL in the state of São Paulo were individually mapped and overlaid on the incidence of ACL for the period 1993 to 1995 and 1998 to 2007. Overall, the maps reveal that the six sand fly vector species analyzed have unique and heterogeneous, although often overlapping, distributions. Several sand fly species - Nyssomyia intermedia and N. neivai - are highly localized, while the other sand fly species - N. whitmani, M. migonei, P. fischeri and P. pessoai - are much more broadly distributed. ACL has been reported in 160/183 (87.4%) of the municipalities with records for at least one of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vector species, while there are no records of any of these sand fly species in 318/478 (66.5%) municipalities with ACL. Conclusions The maps produced in this work provide basic data on the distribution of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vectors of ACL in the state of São Paulo, and highlight the complex and geographically heterogeneous pattern of ACL transmission in the region. Further studies are required to clarify the role of each of the six suspected sand fly vector species in different regions of the state of São Paulo, especially in the majority of municipalities where ACL is present but sand fly vectors have not yet been identified.

A stochastic spatially structured epidemic model with diffusive processes

We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.

EEG amplitude modulation analysis for semi-automated diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease

Recent experimental evidence has suggested a neuromodulatory deficit in Alzheimer's disease (AD). In this paper, we present a new electroencephalogram (EEG) based metric to quantitatively characterize neuromodulatory activity. More specifically, the short-term EEG amplitude modulation rate-of-change (i.e., modulation frequency) is computed for five EEG subband signals. To test the performance of the proposed metric, a classification task was performed on a database of 32 participants partitioned into three groups of approximately equal size: healthy controls, patients diagnosed with mild AD, and those with moderate-to-severe AD. To gauge the benefits of the proposed metric, performance results were compared with those obtained using EEG spectral peak parameters which were recently shown to outperform other conventional EEG measures. Using a simple feature selection algorithm based on area-under-the-curve maximization and a support vector machine classifier, the proposed parameters resulted in accuracy gains, relative to spectral peak parameters, of 21.3% when discriminating between the three groups and by 50% when mild and moderate-to-severe groups were merged into one. The preliminary findings reported herein provide promising insights that automated tools may be developed to assist physicians in very early diagnosis of AD as well as provide researchers with a tool to automatically characterize cross-frequency interactions and their changes with disease.

A comparative analysis of the relative efficacy of vector-control strategies against dengue fever

Dengue is considered one of the most important vector-borne infection, affecting almost half of the world population with 50 to 100 million cases every year. In this paper, we present one of the simplest models that can encapsulate all the important variables related to vector control of dengue fever. The model considers the human population, the adult mosquito population and the population of immature stages, which includes eggs, larvae and pupae. The model also considers the vertical transmission of dengue in the mosquitoes and the seasonal variation in the mosquito population. From this basic model describing the dynamics of dengue infection, we deduce thresholds for avoiding the introduction of the disease and for the elimination of the disease. In particular, we deduce a Basic Reproduction Number for dengue that includes parameters related to the immature stages of the mosquito. By neglecting seasonal variation, we calculate the equilibrium values of the model’s variables. We also present a sensitivity analysis of the impact of four vector-control strategies on the Basic Reproduction Number, on the Force of Infection and on the human prevalence of dengue. Each of the strategies was studied separately from the others. The analysis presented allows us to conclude that of the available vector control strategies, adulticide application is the most effective, followed by the reduction of the exposure to mosquito bites, locating and destroying breeding places and, finally, larvicides. Current vector-control methods are concentrated on mechanical destruction of mosquitoes’ breeding places. Our results suggest that reducing the contact between vector and hosts (biting rates) is as efficient as the logistically difficult but very efficient adult mosquito’s control.