Analysis of NDVI time series using cross-correlation and forecasting methods for monitoring sugarcane fields in Brazil

Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.

The structure and resilience of financial market networks

Financial markets can be viewed as a highly complex evolving system that is very sensitive to economic instabilities. The complex organization of the market can be represented in a suitable fashion in terms of complex networks, which can be constructed from stock prices such that each pair of stocks is connected by a weighted edge that encodes the distance between them. In this work, we propose an approach to analyze the topological and dynamic evolution of financial networks based on the stock correlation matrices. An entropy-related measurement is adopted to quantify the robustness of the evolving financial market organization. It is verified that the network topological organization suffers strong variation during financial instabilities and the networks in such periods become less robust. A statistical robust regression model is proposed to quantity the relationship between the network structure and resilience. The obtained coefficients of such model indicate that the average shortest path length is the measurement most related to network resilience coefficient. This result indicates that a collective behavior is observed between stocks during financial crisis. More specifically, stocks tend to synchronize their price evolution, leading to a high correlation between pair of stock prices, which contributes to the increase in distance between them and, consequently, decrease the network resilience. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3683467]

Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Correlation between carotid bifurcation calcium burden on non-enhanced CT and percentage stenosis, as confirmed by digital subtraction angiography

Objectives: Previous evidence supports a direct relationship between the calcium burden (volume) on post-contrast CT with the percent internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis at the carotid bifurcation. We sought to further investigate this relationship by comparing non-enhanced CT (NECT) and digital subtraction angiography (DSA). Methods: 50 patients (aged 41-82 years) were retrospectively identified who had undergone cervical NECT and DSA. A 64-multidetector array CT (MDCT) scanner was utilised and the images reviewed using preset window widths/levels (30/300) optimised to calcium, with the volumes measured via three-dimensional reconstructive software. Stenosis measurements were performed on DSA and luminal diameter stenoses >40% were considered "significant". Volume thresholds of 0.01, 0.03, 0.06, 0.09 and 0.12 cm(3) were utilised and Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) was calculated to correlate the calcium volume with percent stenosis. Results: Of 100 carotid bifurcations, 88 were available and of these 7 were significantly stenotic. The NECT calcium volume moderately correlated with percent stenosis on DSA r=0.53 (p<0.01). A moderate-strong correlation was found between the square root of calcium volume on NECT with percent stenosis on DSA (r=0.60, p<0.01). Via a receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.06 cm(3) was determined to be the best threshold (sensitivity 100%, specificity 90.1%, negative predictive value 100% and positive predictive value 46.7%) for detecting significant stenoses. Conclusion: This preliminary investigation confirms a correlation between carotid bifurcation calcium volume and percent ICA stenosis and is promising for the optimal threshold for stenosis detection. Future studies could utilise calcium volumes to create a "score" that could predict high grade stenosis.

Echocardiographic and hemodynamic determinants of right coronary artery flow reserve and phasic flow pattern in advanced non-ischemic cardiomyopathy

Abstract Background In patients with advanced non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NIC), right-sided cardiac disturbances has prognostic implications. Right coronary artery (RCA) flow pattern and flow reserve (CFR) are not well known in this setting. The purpose of this study was to assess, in human advanced NIC, the RCA phasic flow pattern and CFR, also under right-sided cardiac disturbances, and compare with left coronary circulation. As well as to investigate any correlation between the cardiac structural, mechanical and hemodynamic parameters with RCA phasic flow pattern or CFR. Methods Twenty four patients with dilated severe NIC were evaluated non-invasively, even by echocardiography, and also by cardiac catheterization, inclusive with Swan-Ganz catheter. Intracoronary Doppler (Flowire) data was obtained in RCA and left anterior descendent coronary artery (LAD) before and after adenosine. Resting RCA phasic pattern (diastolic/systolic) was compared between subgroups with and without pulmonary hypertension, and with and without right ventricular (RV) dysfunction; and also with LAD. RCA-CFR was compared with LAD, as well as in those subgroups. Pearson's correlation analysis was accomplished among echocardiographic (including LV fractional shortening, mass index, end systolic wall stress) more hemodynamic parameters with RCA phasic flow pattern or RCA-CFR. Results LV fractional shortening and end diastolic diameter were 15.3 ± 3.5 % and 69.4 ± 12.2 mm. Resting RCA phasic pattern had no difference comparing subgroups with vs. without pulmonary hypertension (1.45 vs. 1.29, p = NS) either with vs. without RV dysfunction (1.47 vs. 1.23, p = NS); RCA vs. LAD was 1.35 vs. 2.85 (p < 0.001). It had no significant correlation among any cardiac mechanical or hemodynamic parameter with RCA-CFR or RCA flow pattern. RCA-CFR had no difference compared with LAD (3.38 vs. 3.34, p = NS), as well as in pulmonary hypertension (3.09 vs. 3.10, p = NS) either in RV dysfunction (3.06 vs. 3.22, p = NS) subgroups. Conclusion In patients with chronic advanced NIC, RCA phasic flow pattern has a mild diastolic predominance, less marked than in LAD, with no effects from pulmonary artery hypertension or RV dysfunction. There is no significant correlation between any cardiac mechanical-structural or hemodynamic parameter with RCA-CFR or RCA phasic flow pattern. RCA flow reserve is still similar to LAD, independently of those right-sided cardiac disturbances.

Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

In silico identification of conserved intercoding sequences in Leishmania genomes: Unraveling putative cis-regulatory elements

In silico analyses of Leishmania spp. genome data are a powerful resource to improve the understanding of these pathogens' biology. Trypanosomatids such as Leishmania spp. have their protein-coding genes grouped in long polycistronic units of functionally unrelated genes. The control of gene expression happens by a variety of posttranscriptional mechanisms. The high degree of synteny among Leishmania species is accompanied by highly conserved coding sequences (CDS) and poorly conserved intercoding untranslated sequences. To identify the elements involved in the control of gene expression, we conducted an in silico investigation to find conserved intercoding sequences (CICS) in the genomes of L major, L infantum, and L braziliensis. We used a combination of computational tools, such as Linux-Shell, PERL and R languages, BLAST, MSPcrunch, SSAKE, and Pred-A-Term algorithms to construct a pipeline which was able to: (i) search for conservation in target-regions, (ii) eliminate CICS redundancy and mask repeat elements, (iii) predict the mRNA's extremities, (iv) analyze the distribution of orthologous genes within the generated LeishCICS-clusters, (v) assign GO terms to the LeishCICS-clusters. and (vi) provide statistical support for the gene-enrichment annotation. We associated the LeishCICS-cluster data, generated at the end of the pipeline, with the expression profile oft. donovani genes during promastigote-amastigote differentiation, as previously evaluated by others (GEO accession: GSE21936). A Pearson's correlation coefficient greater than 0.5 was observed for 730 LeishCICS-clusters containing from 2 to 17 genes. The designed computational pipeline is a useful tool and its application identified potential regulatory cis elements and putative regulons in Leishmania. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Erosive potential of different types of grape juices

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the erosive potential of different types (concentrated and powdered) and commercial brands of industrialised grape juices. The pH of all five fruit drinks was measured at two time points: immediately after preparation and 24 hours later. Sixty specimens of bovine enamel were randomly allocated and immersed in different types of grape juice (n = 10) for 10 minutes four times a day for fifteen days. The enamel alteration was analysed using surface Knoop microhardness (KHN) and surface roughness (R-a) tests at baseline and on the 5th, 10th and 15th days of the experiment. Two way ANOVA, Tukey's post hoc and Pearson's correlation tests were used for statistical analysis (alpha = 5%). The grape juices presented pH values ranging from 2.9 to 3.5. All of the tested juices promoted significant enamel mineral loss (p < 0.05) on the first evaluation (5th day of immersion) and produced a significant increase in the mean roughness from the 10th day on when compared to the control group (p < 0.05). By the 15th day, all of the beverages had produced surface roughnesses that were significantly higher than that of the control group. The results suggest that all grape juices, regardless of their commercial presentation, present erosive potential.

High levels of C-reactive protein are associated with reduced vagal modulation and low physical activity in young adults

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between cardiac autonomic control derived from heart rate variability (HRV), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and physical activity (PA) levels measured using accelerometers. A total of 80 healthy university students volunteered to participate in this study (20.56 +/- 0.82 years, 1.36 +/- 1.5 mg/L of hs-CRP). The participants were divided into groups based on tertiles of hs-CRP. Analysis of covariance adjusted to PA was used to assess group differences in HRV. Associations between hs-CRP, HRV indices and PA were analyzed using Pearson's correlation. The participants at the highest tertile of hs-CRP (tertile 3) had lower cardiac vagal modulation (SDNN, tertile 1=78.05 +/- 5.9,tertile 2=82.43 +/- 5.9,tertile 3=56.03 +/- 6.1; SD1, tertile 1=61.27 +/- 5.3, tertile 2=62.93 +/- 5.4, tertile 3=40.03 +/- 5.5). In addition, vagal indices were inversely correlated with hs-CRP but positively correlated with PA (SDNN r=-0.320, SD1 r=-0.377; SDNN r=0.304, SD1 r=0.299; P<0.05). Furthermore, the most physically active subjects had lower levels of hs-CRP and the highest levels of vagal modulation.

Quantitative comparison of mobility and gross motor function in Brazilian children with cerebral palsy

Background: Cerebral palsy (CP) presents changes in posture and movement as a core characteristic, which requires therapeutic monitoring during the habilitation or rehabilitation of children. Besides clinical treatment, it is fundamental that professionals use systems of evaluation to quantify the difficulties presented to the individual and assist in the organization of a therapeutic program. The aim of this study was to quantitatively verify the performance of children with spastic di-paresia type CP. Methods: The Pediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory (PEDI) and Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFM) tests were used and classification made through the GMFCS in the assessment of 7 patients with CP, 4 females and 3 males, average age of 9 years old. Results: According to GMFCS scales, 17% (n=1) were level II and 83% (n=6) were level III. The PEDI test and 88 GMFM items were used in the area of mobility. We observed that there was high correlation between mobility and gross motor function with Pearson's correlation coefficient =0.929) showing the likely impact of these areas in the functional skills and the quality of life of these patients. Conclusion: We suggest the impact of the limitation of the areas in functional skills and quality of life of these patients.

TWIST and p-Akt immunoexpression in normal oral epithelium, oral dysplasia and in oral squamous cell carcinoma

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the immunoexpression of TWIST and p-Akt proteins in oral leukoplakia (OL) and oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), correlating their expressions with the histological features of the lesions. Study design: Immunohistochemical studies were carried out on 10 normal oral epithelium, 30 OL and 20 OSCC formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue samples. Immunoperoxidase reactions for TWIST and p-Akt proteins were applied on the specimens and the positivity of the reactions was calculated for 1000 epithelial cells. Results: Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's post tests revealed a significant difference in TWIST and p-Akt immunoexpression among normal oral mucosa, OL and OSCC. In addition, a significant positive correlation was found between TWIST and p-Akt expressions according to the Pearson's correlation test. Conclusions: The results obtained in the current study suggest that TWIST and p-Akt may participate of the multi-step process of oral carcinogenesis since its early stages.

Influence of combined oral contraceptives on the periodontal condition

Most studies investigating the impact of oral contraceptives have been performed some years ago, when the level of sexual hormones was greater than the actual formulations. Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of current combined oral contraceptives (COC) on periodontal tissues, correlating the clinical parameters examined with the total duration of continuous oral contraceptive intake. Material and methods: Twenty-five women (19-35 years old) taking combined oral contraceptives for at least 1 year were included in the test group. The control group was composed by 25 patients at the same age range reporting no use of hormone-based contraceptive methods. Clinical parameters investigated included pocket probing depth (PD), clinical attachment level (CAL), sulcular bleeding index (SBI) and plaque index (PI.I). Data were statistically evaluated by unpaired t test, Pearson's correlation test and Spearman's correlation test. Results: The test group showed increased PD (2.228+/-0.011 x 2.154+/-0.012; p<0.0001) and SBI (0.229+/-0.006 x 0.148+/-0.005, p<0.0001) than controls. No significant differences between groups were found in CAL (0.435+/-0.01 x 0.412+/-0.01; p=0.11). The control group showed greater PI.I than the test group (0.206+/-0.007 x 0.303+/-0.008; p<0.0001). No correlation between the duration of oral contraceptive intake, age and periodontal parameters was observed. Conclusions: These findings suggest that the use of currently available combined oral contraceptives can influence the periodontal conditions of the patients, independently of the level of plaque accumulation or total duration of medication intake, resulting in increased gingival inflammation.

Characterization of aflatoxigenic and non-aflatoxigenic strains of Aspergillus section Flavi isolated from corn grains of different geographic origins in Brazil

Aflatoxins can cause great economic losses and serious risks to humans and animals health. The largest aflatoxin producers belong to Aspergillus section Flavi and can occur naturally in food commodities. Studies showed that molecular tools as well as the type of sclerotia produced by the strains could be helpful for identification of Aspergillus species and could be correlated with levels of toxin production. The purpose of this work was to characterize the genetic diversity using AFLP technique, the type of sclerotia and the ability of aflatoxin production by isolated strains from corn of different origins in Brazil, and to verify whether qPCR based on aflR and aflP genes is appropriate for estimating the level of aflatoxin production. All the 75 strains were classified as A. flavus and the AFLP technique showed a wide intraspecific variability within them. Regarding sclerotia production, 34% were classified as S and 66% as L type. Among the aflatoxin-producers, 52.8% produced aflatoxin B-1, while 47.2% aflatoxins B-1 and B-2. Statistical analysis showed no correlation between sclerotia production and aflatoxigenicty, and no correlation between the phylogenetic clusters and aflatoxin production. Concerning the relative expression of aflR and aflP, Pearson's correlation test demonstrated low positive correlation between the expression of the aflR and aflP genes and the production of AFB(1) and AFB(2), but showed high positive correlation between aflR and aflP expression. In contrast to the other reference strains, A. oryzae ATCC 7282 showed no amplification of aflR and aflP. The results highlight the need for detection of reliable and reproducible markers with a high positive correlation with aflatoxin production.

Pathogenicity of Metarhizium anisopliae towards Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus under laboratory and field conditions

Metarhizium anisopliae is one of the most studied agents of biological control of several arthropod plagues, including the cattle tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus. Studies have been conducted to assess the fungal complex infection process towards its hosts. To accomplish that, mutant strains overexpressing or lacking assumed determinant genes for the process were constructed over the years. A fundamental experiment to demonstrate a particular gene or set of genes participation is the bioassay. The comparison of bioassays using wild and engineered strains is an essential tool to affirm a given gene is crucial in the process. Therefore, the in vitro bioassays should mimic the results obtained in tests under field conditions. In this study, tests under laboratory and filed conditions were done and a correlation analysis was performed in order to statistically validate in vitro bioassays. Tick egg laying, larvae hatching and host mortality were recorded in each experiment through 21 days, both under laboratory and field conditions. In all cases, M. anisopliae treatments were statistically different from the control treatments. A linear regression analysis was performed between the cases. Laboratory results showed a statistically significant correlation with the field conditions using the Pearson's Correlation Test (P < 0.01 host mortality - 0.969, tick egg laying - 0.977 and larvae hatching - 0.956). These results legitimize the in vitro bioassays and, therefore, constitute them as a valid tool for studying this fungus behavior, so they can be used to infer M. anisopliae response towards R. (Boophilus) microplus.

Mini-implant insertion based on tooth crown references: a guide-free technique

Mini-implant insertion requires accurate surgical technique. This study shows an insertion technique using only tooth crown references; its scientific basis is evaluated radiographically. The sample consisted of 213 inter-radicular septa, evaluated in 53 bitewing radiographs. The proximal contour of adjacent tooth crowns was used to define septum width. The midpoint of the septum width was linked to the interdental contact point to determine septum midline. The distances from septum midline to "mesial and distal teeth were measured to evaluate the septum midline centralization degree in two different septum heights. The difference between mesial and distal distances represented the septum midline deviation degree. The mesial and distal distances were compared by t-tests, and the septum midline deviation was correlated with septum height using Pearson's correlation test. The mesial and distal distances were not statistically different in the midpoint of the septum height, but they were different at the apical septum height. There was a moderate correlation (r = 0.45) between septum midline deviation and septum height. The tooth crown references evaluated on interproximal radiographs determine a high centralization degree of the septum midline on which the insertion site could be defined. The greater centralization degree was observed at the coronal septum area.