Missed opportunities for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 in the NISDI Perinatal and LILAC cohorts

Objective: To evaluate cases of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 at multiple sites in Latin America and the Caribbean in terms of missed opportunities for prevention. Methods: Pregnant women infected with HIV-1 were eligible for inclusion if they were enrolled in either the NISDI Perinatal or LILAC protocols by October 20, 2009, and had delivered a live infant with known HIV-1 infection status after March 1, 2006. Results: Of 711 eligible mothers, 10 delivered infants infected with HIV-1. The transmission rate was 1.4% (95% CI, 0.7-2.6). Timing of transmission was in utero or intrapartum (n = 5), intrapartum (n = 2), intrapartum or early postnatal (n = 1), and unknown (n = 2). Possible missed opportunities for prevention included poor control of maternal viral load during pregnancy; late initiation of antiretrovirals during pregnancy; lack of cesarean delivery before labor and before rupture of membranes; late diagnosis of HIV-1 infection; lack of intrapartum antiretrovirals; and incomplete avoidance of breastfeeding. Conclusion: Early knowledge of HIV-1 infection status (ideally before or in early pregnancy) would aid timely initiation of antiretroviral treatment and strategies designed to prevent mother-to-child transmission. Use of antiretrovirals must be appropriately monitored in terms of adherence and drug resistance. If feasible, breastfeeding should be completely avoided. Presented in part at the XIX International AIDS Conference (Washington, DC; July 22-27, 2012); abstract WEPE163. (c) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. on behalf of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

Three Postpartum Antiretroviral Regimens to Prevent Intrapartum HIV Infection

BACKGROUND The safety and efficacy of adding antiretroviral drugs to standard zidovudine prophylaxis in infants of mothers with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection who did not receive antenatal antiretroviral therapy (ART) because of late identification are unclear. We evaluated three ART regimens in such infants. METHODS Within 48 hours after their birth, we randomly assigned formula-fed infants born to women with a peripartum diagnosis of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) infection to one of three regimens: zidovudine for 6 weeks (zidovudine-alone group), zidovudine for 6 weeks plus three doses of nevirapine during the first 8 days of life (two-drug group), or zidovudine for 6 weeks plus nelfinavir and lamivudine for 2 weeks (three-drug group). The primary outcome was HIV-1 infection at 3 months in infants uninfected at birth. RESULTS A total of 1684 infants were enrolled in the Americas and South Africa (566 in the zidovudine-alone group, 562 in the two-drug group, and 556 in the three-drug group). The overall rate of in utero transmission of HIV-1 on the basis of Kaplan-Meier estimates was 5.7% (93 infants), with no significant differences among the groups. Intrapartum transmission occurred in 24 infants in the zidovudine-alone group (4.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2 to 7.1), as compared with 11 infants in the two-drug group (2.2%; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.9; P=0.046) and 12 in the three-drug group (2.4%; 95% CI, 1.4 to 4.3; P=0.046). The overall transmission rate was 8.5% (140 infants), with an increased rate in the zidovudine-alone group (P=0.03 for the comparisons with the two-and three-drug groups). On multivariate analysis, zidovudine monotherapy, a higher maternal viral load, and maternal use of illegal substances were significantly associated with transmission. The rate of neutropenia was significantly increased in the three-drug group (P < 0.001 for both comparisons with the other groups). CONCLUSIONS In neonates whose mothers did not receive ART during pregnancy, prophylaxis with a two-or three-drug ART regimen is superior to zidovudine alone for the prevention of intrapartum HIV transmission; the two-drug regimen has less toxicity than the three-drug regimen. (Funded by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development [NICHD] and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00099359.)

Clusters of leprosy transmission and of late diagnosis in a highly endemic area in Brazil: focus on different spatial analysis approaches

Objective The Brazilian National Hansens Disease Control Program recently identified clusters with high disease transmission. Herein, we present different spatial analytical approaches to define highly vulnerable areas in one of these clusters. Method The study area included 373 municipalities in the four Brazilian states Maranha o, Para ', Tocantins and Piaui '. Spatial analysis was based on municipalities as the observation unit, considering the following disease indicators: (i) rate of new cases / 100 000 population, (ii) rate of cases < 15 years / 100 000 population, (iii) new cases with grade-2 disability / 100 000 population and (iv) proportion of new cases with grade-2 disabilities. We performed descriptive spatial analysis, local empirical Bayesian analysis and spatial scan statistic. Results A total of 254 (68.0%) municipalities were classified as hyperendemic (mean annual detection rates > 40 cases / 100 000 inhabitants). There was a concentration of municipalities with higher detection rates in Para ' and in the center of Maranha o. Spatial scan statistic identified 23 likely clusters of new leprosy case detection rates, most of them localized in these two states. These clusters included only 32% of the total population, but 55.4% of new leprosy cases. We also identified 16 significant clusters for the detection rate < 15 years and 11 likely clusters of new cases with grade-2. Several clusters of new cases with grade-2 / population overlap with those of new cases detection and detection of children < 15 years of age. The proportion of new cases with grade-2 did not reveal any significant clusters. Conclusions Several municipality clusters for high leprosy transmission and late diagnosis were identified in an endemic area using different statistical approaches. Spatial scan statistic is adequate to validate and confirm high-risk leprosy areas for transmission and late diagnosis, identified using descriptive spatial analysis and using local empirical Bayesian method. National and State leprosy control programs urgently need to intensify control actions in these highly vulnerable municipalities.

A spatial stochastic model for rumor transmission

We consider an interacting particle system representing the spread of a rumor by agents on the d-dimensional integer lattice. Each agent may be in any of the three states belonging to the set {0,1,2}. Here 0 stands for ignorants, 1 for spreaders and 2 for stiflers. A spreader tells the rumor to any of its (nearest) ignorant neighbors at rate lambda. At rate alpha a spreader becomes a stifler due to the action of other (nearest neighbor) spreaders. Finally, spreaders and stiflers forget the rumor at rate one. We study sufficient conditions under which the rumor either becomes extinct or survives with positive probability.