Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Linear parameter varying control design for rotating systems supported by journal bearings

Linear parameter varying (LPV) control is a model-based control technique that takes into account time-varying parameters of the plant. In the case of rotating systems supported by lubricated bearings, the dynamic characteristics of the bearings change in time as a function of the rotating speed. Hence, LPV control can tackle the problem of run-up and run-down operational conditions when dynamic characteristics of the rotating system change significantly in time due to the bearings and high vibration levels occur. In this work, the LPV control design for a flexible shaft supported by plain journal bearings is presented. The model used in the LPV control design is updated from unbalance response experimental results and dynamic coefficients for the entire range of rotating speeds are obtained by numerical optimization. Experimental implementation of the designed LPV control resulted in strong reduction of vibration amplitudes when crossing the critical speed, without affecting system behavior in sub- or supercritical speeds. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Direct Determination of Sugar Cane Quality Parameters by X-ray Spectrometry and Multivariate Analysis

Current methods for quality control of sugar cane are performed in extracted juice using several methodologies, often requiring appreciable time and chemicals (eventually toxic), making the methods not green and expensive. The present study proposes the use of X-ray spectrometry together with chemometric methods as an innovative and alternative technique for determining sugar cane quality parameters, specifically sucrose concentration, POL, and fiber content. Measurements in stem, leaf, and juice were performed, and those applied directly in stem provided the best results. Prediction models for sugar cane stem determinations with a single 60 s irradiation using portable X-ray fluorescence equipment allows estimating the % sucrose, % fiber, and POL simultaneously. Average relative deviations in the prediction step of around 8% are acceptable if considering that field measurements were done. These results may indicate the best period to cut a particular crop as well as for evaluating the quality of sugar cane for the sugar and alcohol industries.

Semi-supervised dimensionality reduction based on partial least squares for visual analysis of high dimensional data

Dimensionality reduction is employed for visual data analysis as a way to obtaining reduced spaces for high dimensional data or to mapping data directly into 2D or 3D spaces. Although techniques have evolved to improve data segregation on reduced or visual spaces, they have limited capabilities for adjusting the results according to user's knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to handling both dimensionality reduction and visualization of high dimensional data, taking into account user's input. It employs Partial Least Squares (PLS), a statistical tool to perform retrieval of latent spaces focusing on the discriminability of the data. The method employs a training set for building a highly precise model that can then be applied to a much larger data set very effectively. The reduced data set can be exhibited using various existing visualization techniques. The training data is important to code user's knowledge into the loop. However, this work also devises a strategy for calculating PLS reduced spaces when no training data is available. The approach produces increasingly precise visual mappings as the user feeds back his or her knowledge and is capable of working with small and unbalanced training sets.

Evaluation of Viral Load Thresholds for Predicting New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: This study evaluated a wide range of viral load (VL) thresholds to identify a cut-point that best predicts new clinical events in children on stable highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods: Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the adjusted risk for World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 clinical events (WHO events) as a function of time-varying CD4, VL, and hemoglobin values in a cohort study of Latin American children on HAART >= 6 months. Models were fit using different VL cut-points between 400 and 50,000 copies per milliliter, with model fit evaluated on the basis of the minimum Akaike information criterion value, a standard model fit statistic. Results: Models were based on 67 subjects with WHO events out of 550 subjects on study. The VL cut-points of >2600 and >32,000 copies per milliliter corresponded to the lowest Akaike information criterion values and were associated with the highest hazard ratios (2.0, P = 0.015; and 2.1, P = 0.0058, respectively) for WHO events. Conclusions: In HIV-infected Latin American children on stable HAART, 2 distinct VL thresholds (>2600 and >32,000 copies/mL) were identified for predicting children at significantly increased risk for HIV-related clinical illness, after accounting for CD4 level, hemoglobin level, and other significant factors.

Scaling invariance for the escape of particles from a periodically corrugated waveguide

The escape dynamics of a classical light ray inside a corrugated waveguide is characterised by the use of scaling arguments. The model is described via a two-dimensional nonlinear and area preserving mapping. The phase space of the mapping contains a set of periodic islands surrounded by a large chaotic sea that is confined by a set of invariant tori. When a hole is introduced in the chaotic sea, letting the ray escape, the histogram of frequency of the number of escaping particles exhibits rapid growth, reaching a maximum value at n(p) and later decaying asymptotically to zero. The behaviour of the histogram of escape frequency is characterised using scaling arguments. The scaling formalism is widely applicable to critical phenomena and useful in characterisation of phase transitions, including transitions from limited to unlimited energy growth in two-dimensional time varying billiard problems. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of magnetically induced hyperthermia in the model protozoan Crithidia fasciculata as a potential therapy against parasitic infections

Background: Magnetic hyperthermia is currently a clinical therapy approved in the European Union for treatment of tumor cells, and uses magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) under time-varying magnetic fields (TVMFs). The same basic principle seems promising against trypanosomatids causing Chagas disease and sleeping sickness, given that the therapeutic drugs available have severe side effects and that there are drug-resistant strains. However, no applications of this strategy against protozoan-induced diseases have been reported so far. In the present study, Crithidia fasciculata, a widely used model for therapeutic strategies against pathogenic trypanosomatids, was targeted with Fe3O4 MNPs in order to provoke cell death remotely using TVMFs. Methods: Iron oxide MNPs with average diameters of approximately 30 nm were synthesized by precipitation of FeSO4 in basic medium. The MNPs were added to C. fasciculata choanomastigotes in the exponential phase and incubated overnight, removing excess MNPs using a DEAE-cellulose resin column. The amount of MNPs uploaded per cell was determined by magnetic measurement. The cells bearing MNPs were submitted to TVMFs using a homemade AC field applicator (f = 249 kHz, H = 13 kA/m), and the temperature variation during the experiments was measured. Scanning electron microscopy was used to assess morphological changes after the TVMF experiments. Cell viability was analyzed using an MTT colorimetric assay and flow cytometry. Results: MNPs were incorporated into the cells, with no noticeable cytotoxicity. When a TVMF was applied to cells bearing MNPs, massive cell death was induced via a nonapoptotic mechanism. No effects were observed by applying TVMF to control cells not loaded with MNPs. No macroscopic rise in temperature was observed in the extracellular medium during the experiments. Conclusion: As a proof of principle, these data indicate that intracellular hyperthermia is a suitable technology to induce death of protozoan parasites bearing MNPs. These findings expand the possibilities for new therapeutic strategies combating parasitic infection.

Exogenous influences on plant secondary metabolite levels

Plant secondary metabolites are a group of naturally occurring compound classes biosynthesized by differing biochemical pathways whose plant content and regulation is strongly susceptible to environmental influences and to potential herbal predators. Such abiotic and biotic factors might be specifically induced by means of various mechanisms, which create variation in the accumulation or biogenesis of secondary metabolites. Hence the dynamic aspect of bioactive compound synthesis and accumulation enables plants to communicate and react in order to overcome imminent threats. This contribution aims to review the most important mechanisms of various abiotic and biotic interactions, such as pathogenic microorganisms and herbivory, by which plants respond to exogenous influences, and will also report on time-scale variable influences on secondary metabolite profiles. Transmission of signals in plants commonly occurs by 'semiochemicals', which are comprised of terpenes, phenylpropanoids, benzenoids and other volatile compounds. Due to the important functions of volatile terpenes in communication processes of living organisms, as well as its emission susceptibility relative to exogenous influences, we also present different scenarios of concentration and emission variations. Toxic effects of plants vary depending on the level and type of secondary metabolites. In farming and cattle raising scenarios, the toxicity of plant secondary metabolites and respective concentration shifts may have severe consequences on livestock production and health, culminating in adverse effects on crop yields and/or their human consumers, or have an adverse economic impact. From a wider perspective, herbal medicines, agrochemicals or other natural products are also associated with variability in plant metabolite levels, which can impact the safety and reliable efficacy of these products. We also present typical examples of toxic plants which influence livestock production using Brazilian examples of toxicity of sapogenins and alkaloids on livestock to highlight the problem. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal Code Set Selection and Security Issues in Spectral Phase-Encoded Time Spreading (SPECTS) OCDMA Systems

In this paper, we perform a thorough analysis of a spectral phase-encoded time spreading optical code division multiple access (SPECTS-OCDMA) system based on Walsh-Hadamard (W-H) codes aiming not only at finding optimal code-set selections but also at assessing its loss of security due to crosstalk. We prove that an inadequate choice of codes can make the crosstalk between active users to become large enough so as to cause the data from the user of interest to be detected by other user. The proposed algorithm for code optimization targets code sets that produce minimum bit error rate (BER) among all codes for a specific number of simultaneous users. This methodology allows us to find optimal code sets for any OCDMA system, regardless the code family used and the number of active users. This procedure is crucial for circumventing the unexpected lack of security due to crosstalk. We also show that a SPECTS-OCDMA system based on W-H 32(64) fundamentally limits the number of simultaneous users to 4(8) with no security violation due to crosstalk. More importantly, we prove that only a small fraction of the available code sets is actually immune to crosstalk with acceptable BER (<10(-9)) i.e., approximately 0.5% for W-H 32 with four simultaneous users, and about 1 x 10(-4)% for W-H 64 with eight simultaneous users.

Evolution of time-control mechanisms in subterranean organisms: cave fishes under light-dark cycles (Teleostei: Siluriformes, Characiformes)

Subterranean organisms are excellent models for chronobiological studies, yet relatively few taxa have been investigated with this focus. Former results were interpreted as a pattern of regression of circadian locomotor activity rhythms in troglobitic (exclusively subterranean) species. In this paper we report results of experiments with cave fishes showing variable degrees of troglomorphism (reduction of eyes, melanic pigmentation and other specializations related to the hypogean life) submitted to light-dark cycles, preceded and followed by several days in constant darkness. Samples from seven species have been monitored in our laboratory for the detection of significant circadian rhythms in locomotor activity: S. typhlops, an extremely troglomophic species, presented the lowest number of significant components in the circadian range (only one individual out of eight in DD1 and three other fish in LD), all weak (low values of spectral power). Higher incidence of circadian components was observed for P. kronei - only one among six studied catfish without significant circadian rhythms under DD1 and DD2; spectral powers were generally high. Intermediate situations were observed for the remaining species, however all of them presented relatively strong significant rhythms under LD. Residual oscillations (circadian rhythms in DD2) were detected in at least part of the studied individuals of all species but S. typhlops, without a correlation with spectral powers of LD rhythms, i.e., individuals exhibiting residual oscillations were not necessarily those with the strongest LD rhythms. In conclusion, the accumulated evidence for troglobitic fishes strongly supports the hypothesis of external, environmental selection for circadian locomotor rhythms.

Emergence of sensory selection mechanisms in Artificial Life simulations

Background The evolutionary advantages of selective attention are unclear. Since the study of selective attention began, it has been suggested that the nervous system only processes the most relevant stimuli because of its limited capacity [1]. An alternative proposal is that action planning requires the inhibition of irrelevant stimuli, which forces the nervous system to limit its processing [2]. An evolutionary approach might provide additional clues to clarify the role of selective attention. Methods We developed Artificial Life simulations wherein animals were repeatedly presented two objects, "left" and "right", each of which could be "food" or "non-food." The animals' neural networks (multilayer perceptrons) had two input nodes, one for each object, and two output nodes to determine if the animal ate each of the objects. The neural networks also had a variable number of hidden nodes, which determined whether or not it had enough capacity to process both stimuli (Table 1). The evolutionary relevance of the left and the right food objects could also vary depending on how much the animal's fitness was increased when ingesting them (Table 1). We compared sensory processing in animals with or without limited capacity, which evolved in simulations in which the objects had the same or different relevances. Table 1. Nine sets of simulations were performed, varying the values of food objects and the number of hidden nodes in the neural networks. The values of left and right food were swapped during the second half of the simulations. Non-food objects were always worth -3. The evolution of neural networks was simulated by a simple genetic algorithm. Fitness was a function of the number of food and non-food objects each animal ate and the chromosomes determined the node biases and synaptic weights. During each simulation, 10 populations of 20 individuals each evolved in parallel for 20,000 generations, then the relevance of food objects was swapped and the simulation was run again for another 20,000 generations. The neural networks were evaluated by their ability to identify the two objects correctly. The detectability (d') for the left and the right objects was calculated using Signal Detection Theory [3]. Results and conclusion When both stimuli were equally relevant, networks with two hidden nodes only processed one stimulus and ignored the other. With four or eight hidden nodes, they could correctly identify both stimuli. When the stimuli had different relevances, the d' for the most relevant stimulus was higher than the d' for the least relevant stimulus, even when the networks had four or eight hidden nodes. We conclude that selection mechanisms arose in our simulations depending not only on the size of the neuron networks but also on the stimuli's relevance for action.

Performance and radial distribution profiles of a variable flow rate sprinkler developed for precision irrigation

Variable rate sprinklers (VRS) have been developed to promote localized water application of irrigated areas. In Precision Irrigation, VRS permits better control of flow adjustment and, at the same time, provides satisfactory radial distribution profiles for various pressures and flow rates are really necessary. The objective of this work was to evaluate the performance and radial distribution profiles of a developed VRS which varies the nozzle cross sectional area by moving a pin in or out using a stepper motor. Field tests were performed under different conditions of service pressure, rotation angles imposed on the pin and flow rate which resulted in maximal water throw radiuses ranging from 7.30 to 10.38 m. In the experiments in which the service pressure remained constant, the maximal throw radius varied from 7.96 to 8.91 m. Averages were used of repetitions performed under conditions without wind or with winds less than 1.3 m s-1. The VRS with the four stream deflector resulted in greater water application throw radius compared to the six stream deflector. However, the six stream deflector had greater precipitation intensities, as well as better distribution. Thus, selection of the deflector to be utilized should be based on project requirements, respecting the difference in the obtained results. With a small opening of the nozzle, the VRS produced small water droplets that visually presented applicability for foliar chemigation. Regarding the comparison between the estimated and observed flow rates, the stepper motor produced excellent results.