Relationship between ozone, meteorological conditions, gas exchange and leaf injury in Nicotiana tabacum Bel-W3 in a sub-tropical region

The city of Sao Paulo is located in a subtropical region whose climate exhibits few defined seasons as well as frequent oscillations in temperature and rainfall throughout the year. In addition to interfering with physiological processes, these peculiar climatic dynamics influence the formation of O-3 and its influx into leaves, causing species used as bioindicators in temperate climates to be ineffective here. This study evaluated gas exchange variations in CO2 and H2O and leaf injuries induced by O-3 in Nicotiana tabacum Bel-W3 in relation to oscillations in environmental conditions. Plants were exposed to an O-3-polluted environment for fifteen periods of fourteen days each throughout 2008. Gas exchange and O-3 were higher during the summer and winter but were highly variable in all seasons. Severe injuries occurred during the winter and spring, with significant variation in this parameter being observed throughout the year. An analysis of biotic and abiotic variables revealed complex relationships among them, with great importance of meteorological factors in plant responses. We conclude that under unstable climatic conditions, the relationship between O-3 flux and injury is weak, and the qualitative character of biomonitoring is further confirmed. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A stochastic spatially structured epidemic model with diffusive processes

We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.