Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Optimization of Large-Scale Hydrothermal System Operation

This paper presents the development of a mathematical model to optimize the management and operation of the Brazilian hydrothermal system. The system consists of a large set of individual hydropower plants and a set of aggregated thermal plants. The energy generated in the system is interconnected by a transmission network so it can be transmitted to centers of consumption throughout the country. The optimization model offered is capable of handling different types of constraints, such as interbasin water transfers, water supply for various purposes, and environmental requirements. Its overall objective is to produce energy to meet the country's demand at a minimum cost. Called HIDROTERM, the model integrates a database with basic hydrological and technical information to run the optimization model, and provides an interface to manage the input and output data. The optimization model uses the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) package and can invoke different linear as well as nonlinear programming solvers. The optimization model was applied to the Brazilian hydrothermal system, one of the largest in the world. The system is divided into four subsystems with 127 active hydropower plants. Preliminary results under different scenarios of inflow, demand, and installed capacity demonstrate the efficiency and utility of the model. From this and other case studies in Brazil, the results indicate that the methodology developed is suitable to different applications, such as planning operation, capacity expansion, and operational rule studies, and trade-off analysis among multiple water users. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000149. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Ultrasonic sensor for the presence of oily contaminants in water

The determination of the complex reflection coefficient of ultrasonic shear-waves at the solid-liquid interface is a technique employed for the measurement of the viscoelastic properties of liquids. An interesting property of the measurement technique is the very small penetration depth of the shear-waves into the liquid sample, which permits measurements with liquid films of some micrometers thick. This property, along with the adhesion of oily substances to surfaces, can be used for the detection of oily contaminants in water. In this work, the employment of the ultrasonic shear-wave reflection technique to the detection of oily contaminants in water is proposed and the theoretical and experimental concepts involved are discussed. Preliminary experimental results show the measurement technique can detect SAE 40 automotive oil in water in volume proportions less than 0.5%.

Efficient Placement of Fault Indicators in an Actual Distribution System Using Evolutionary Computing

This paper proposes an evolutionary computing strategy to solve the problem of fault indicator (FI) placement in primary distribution feeders. More specifically, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search for an efficient configuration of FIs, located at the best positions on the main feeder of a real-life distribution system. Thus, the problem is modeled as one of optimization, aimed at improving the distribution reliability indices, while, at the same time, finding the least expensive solution. Based on actual data, the results confirm the efficiency of the GA approach to the FI placement problem.

Herbicides in the upper Poxim River, Sergipe, and the risk of contamination of water resources

Increased agricultural activity in watershed areas has been causing concern over contamination by herbicides in agricultural areas. The problem becomes more important when contamination can affect water for human consumption, as happens with water from the Poxim river, which supplies the city of Aracaju, capital of the State of Sergipe. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of contamination by herbicides to both surface and groundwater in the upper sub-basin of the Poxim River, and to detect the presence of the active ingredients Diuron and Ametrine up-river from the sugar-cane plantations. Risk analysis was carried out using criteria from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the GUS index, and the GOSS method. It was observed that several active ingredients are at risk of leaching, demonstrating the importance of monitoring the river to control both the quality of water and the frequency and volume of herbicides used in the region. Based on the results, monitoring was carried out bi-monthly from July 2009 to July 2010 at two sampling points. Water samples were analyzed in the laboratory, where the presence of Diuron and Ametrine was noted. Water quality in the Sub-basin of the Rio Poxim is being influenced by the use of herbicides in the region. There was an increase in herbicide concentration in the surface water during the rainy season, possibly caused by soil runoff.

Development of methodology for determination of pesticides residue in water by SPE/HPLC/DAD

To boost crop yield, sugarcane growers are using increasing amounts of pesticides to combat insects and weeds. But residues of these compounds can pollute water resources, such as lakes, rivers and aquifers. The present paper reports the results of a study of water samples from the Feijao River, which is the source of drinking water for the city of Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo, Brazil. The samples were evaluated for the presence of four leading pesticides - ametryn, atrazine, diuron and fipronil - used on sugarcane, the dominant culture in the region. The samples were obtained from three points along the river: the headwaters, along the middle course of the river and just before the municipal water intake station. The pesticides were extracted from the water samples by solid-phase extraction (SPE) and then analyzed by liquid chromatography with diode array detection (LC-DAD). The analytical method was validated by traditional methods, obtaining recovery values between 90 and 95%, with precision deviations inferior to 2.56%, correlation coefficients above 0.99 and detection and quantification limits varying from 0.02 to 0.05 mg L-1 and 0.07 to 0.17 mg L-1, respectively. No presence of residues of the pesticides was detected in the samples, considering the detection limits of the method employed.

A simple analysis of the influence of the solvent-induced electronic polarization on the N-15 magnetic shielding of pyridine in water

Electronic polarization induced by the interaction of a reference molecule with a liquid environment is expected to affect the magnetic shielding constants. Understanding this effect using realistic theoretical models is important for proper use of nuclear magnetic resonance in molecular characterization. In this work, we consider the pyridine molecule in water as a model system to briefly investigate this aspect. Thus, Monte Carlo simulations and quantum mechanics calculations based on the B3LYP/6-311++G (d,p) are used to analyze different aspects of the solvent effects on the N-15 magnetic shielding constant of pyridine in water. This includes in special the geometry relaxation and the electronic polarization of the solute by the solvent. The polarization effect is found to be very important, but, as expected for pyridine, the geometry relaxation contribution is essentially negligible. Using an average electrostatic model of the solvent, the magnetic shielding constant is calculated as -58.7 ppm, in good agreement with the experimental value of -56.3 ppm. The explicit inclusion of hydrogen-bonded water molecules embedded in the electrostatic field of the remaining solvent molecules gives the value of -61.8 ppm.