Signal propagation in Bayesian networks and its relationship with intrinsically multivariate predictive variables

A set of predictor variables is said to be intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) for a target variable if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are poor predictors of the. target but the full set predicts the target with great accuracy. In a previous article, the main properties of IMP Boolean variables have been analytically described, including the introduction of the IMP score, a metric based on the coefficient of determination (CoD) as a measure of predictiveness with respect to the target variable. It was shown that the IMP score depends on four main properties: logic of connection, predictive power, covariance between predictors and marginal predictor probabilities (biases). This paper extends that work to a broader context, in an attempt to characterize properties of discrete Bayesian networks that contribute to the presence of variables (network nodes) with high IMP scores. We have found that there is a relationship between the IMP score of a node and its territory size, i.e., its position along a pathway with one source: nodes far from the source display larger IMP scores than those closer to the source, and longer pathways display larger maximum IMP scores. This appears to be a consequence of the fact that nodes with small territory have larger probability of having highly covariate predictors, which leads to smaller IMP scores. In addition, a larger number of XOR and NXOR predictive logic relationships has positive influence over the maximum IMP score found in the pathway. This work presents analytical results based on a simple structure network and an analysis involving random networks constructed by computational simulations. Finally, results from a real Bayesian network application are provided. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculation of parameter ranges for robust gain tuning of power system controllers

This work proposes a computational tool to assist power system engineers in the field tuning of power system stabilizers (PSSs) and Automatic Voltage Regulators (AVRs). The outcome of this tool is a range of gain values for theses controllers within which there is a theoretical guarantee of stability for the closed-loop system. This range is given as a set of limit values for the static gains of the controllers of interest, in such a way that the engineer responsible for the field tuning of PSSs and/or AVRs can be confident with respect to system stability when adjusting the corresponding static gains within this range. This feature of the proposed tool is highly desirable from a practical viewpoint, since the PSS and AVR commissioning stage always involve some readjustment of the controller gains to account for the differences between the nominal model and the actual behavior of the system. By capturing these differences as uncertainties in the model, this computational tool is able to guarantee stability for the whole uncertain model using an approach based on linear matrix inequalities. It is also important to remark that the tool proposed in this paper can also be applied to other types of parameters of either PSSs or Power Oscillation Dampers, as well as other types of controllers (such as speed governors, for example). To show its effectiveness, applications of the proposed tool to two benchmarks for small signal stability studies are presented at the end of this paper.