Risk assessment of PM2.5 to child residents in Brazilian Amazon region with biofuel production

Background: Exposure to fine fractions of particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with increased hospital admissions and mortality for respiratory and cardiovascular disease in children and the elderly. This study aims to estimate the toxicological risk of PM2.5 from biomass burning in children and adolescents between the age of 6 and 14 in Tangara da Serra, a municipality of Subequatorial Brazilian Amazon. Methods: Risk assessment methodology was applied to estimate the risk quotient in two scenarios of exposure according to local seasonality. The potential dose of PM2.5 was estimated using the Monte Carlo simulation, stratifying the population by age, gender, asthma and Body Mass Index (BMI). Results: Male asthmatic children under the age of 8 at normal body rate had the highest risk quotient among the subgroups. The general potential average dose of PM2.5 was 1.95 mu g/kg.day (95% CI: 1.62 - 2.27) during the dry scenario and 0.32 mu g/kg. day (95% CI: 0.29 - 0.34) in the rainy scenario. During the dry season, children and adolescents showed a toxicological risk to PM2.5 of 2.07 mu g/kg. day (95% CI: 1.85 - 2.30). Conclusions: Children and adolescents living in the Subequatorial Brazilian Amazon region were exposed to high levels of PM2.5 resulting in toxicological risk for this multi-pollutant. The toxicological risk quotients of children in this region were comparable or higher to children living in metropolitan regions with PM2.5 air pollution above the recommended limits to human health.

Optimization of Large-Scale Hydrothermal System Operation

This paper presents the development of a mathematical model to optimize the management and operation of the Brazilian hydrothermal system. The system consists of a large set of individual hydropower plants and a set of aggregated thermal plants. The energy generated in the system is interconnected by a transmission network so it can be transmitted to centers of consumption throughout the country. The optimization model offered is capable of handling different types of constraints, such as interbasin water transfers, water supply for various purposes, and environmental requirements. Its overall objective is to produce energy to meet the country's demand at a minimum cost. Called HIDROTERM, the model integrates a database with basic hydrological and technical information to run the optimization model, and provides an interface to manage the input and output data. The optimization model uses the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) package and can invoke different linear as well as nonlinear programming solvers. The optimization model was applied to the Brazilian hydrothermal system, one of the largest in the world. The system is divided into four subsystems with 127 active hydropower plants. Preliminary results under different scenarios of inflow, demand, and installed capacity demonstrate the efficiency and utility of the model. From this and other case studies in Brazil, the results indicate that the methodology developed is suitable to different applications, such as planning operation, capacity expansion, and operational rule studies, and trade-off analysis among multiple water users. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000149. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Landscape changes in Serra do Japi: legal protection or scientific expectation?

The creation of new legally protected areas brings many conflicts that distance the real landscape from the expected according to environmental law or conservation researchers. In this study, we mapped and compared the changes in Serra da Japi (Sao Paulo State, Brazil) throughout 40 years with scenarios of legal protection and scientific expectation on forest conservation, to evaluate the distance between them. This may allow us to infer the direction of historical changes and assist in the debate among decision makers. The results showed that most legal requirements on forest protection in the current landscape have been met. The 1960s was the period when the forest cover was closest to the desirable conservation stage. Although the Serra do Japi has maintained large areas of forests during the entire study period, human interference increased with the expansion of reforestation and urban areas, and access roads were identified as a primary potential driving forces of change. In addition, habitat loss was observed in the landscape, which can represent the first phase of a sequence of modifications detrimental to the environmental conservation of this protected area, including decision changes to land use. In conclusion, the changes evolved toward conservation expectations, but not toward the forest configuration of scientific expectation.

Pollination services at risk: Bee habitats will decrease owing to climate change in Brazil

Native bees are important providers of pollination services, but there are cumulative evidences of their decline. Global changes such as habitat losses, invasions of exotic species and climate change have been suggested as the main causes of the decline of pollinators. In this study, the influence of climate change on the distribution of 10 species of Brazilian bees was estimated with species distribution modelling. We used Maxent algorithm (maximum entropy) and two different scenarios, an optimistic and a pessimistic, to the years 2050 and 2080. We also evaluated the percentage reduction of species habitat based on the future scenarios of climate change through Geographic Information System (GIS). Results showed that the total area of suitable habitats decreased for all species but one under the different future scenarios. The greatest reductions in habitat area were found for Melipona bicolor bicolor and Melipona scutellaris, which occur predominantly in areas related originally to Atlantic Moist Forest. The species analysed have been reported to be pollinators of some regional crops and the consequence of their decrease for these crops needs further clarification. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exogenous influences on plant secondary metabolite levels

Plant secondary metabolites are a group of naturally occurring compound classes biosynthesized by differing biochemical pathways whose plant content and regulation is strongly susceptible to environmental influences and to potential herbal predators. Such abiotic and biotic factors might be specifically induced by means of various mechanisms, which create variation in the accumulation or biogenesis of secondary metabolites. Hence the dynamic aspect of bioactive compound synthesis and accumulation enables plants to communicate and react in order to overcome imminent threats. This contribution aims to review the most important mechanisms of various abiotic and biotic interactions, such as pathogenic microorganisms and herbivory, by which plants respond to exogenous influences, and will also report on time-scale variable influences on secondary metabolite profiles. Transmission of signals in plants commonly occurs by 'semiochemicals', which are comprised of terpenes, phenylpropanoids, benzenoids and other volatile compounds. Due to the important functions of volatile terpenes in communication processes of living organisms, as well as its emission susceptibility relative to exogenous influences, we also present different scenarios of concentration and emission variations. Toxic effects of plants vary depending on the level and type of secondary metabolites. In farming and cattle raising scenarios, the toxicity of plant secondary metabolites and respective concentration shifts may have severe consequences on livestock production and health, culminating in adverse effects on crop yields and/or their human consumers, or have an adverse economic impact. From a wider perspective, herbal medicines, agrochemicals or other natural products are also associated with variability in plant metabolite levels, which can impact the safety and reliable efficacy of these products. We also present typical examples of toxic plants which influence livestock production using Brazilian examples of toxicity of sapogenins and alkaloids on livestock to highlight the problem. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in phytoplankton composition in response to tides, wind-induced mixing conditions, and freshwater outflows in an urbanised estuarine complex

Recent reports have shown an increase in potentially harmful phytoplankton in Santos bay (Southeastern Brazilian Coast), located in a highly urbanised estuarine complex. Prediction of blooms is, thus, essential but the phytoplankton community structure in very dynamic regions is difficult to determine. In the present work, we discriminate bloom forming microphytoplankton dominance and their relationship to physical and meteorological variables to look for patterns observed in different tides and seasons. Comparing 8 distinct situations, we found five scenarios of dominance that could be related to winds, tides and rainfall: i) Surfers, diatoms occurring during high surf zone energies; ii) Sinkers, represented by larger celled diatoms during spring tide, after periods of high precipitation rates; iii) Opportunistic mixers, composed of chain forming diatoms with small or elongate cells occurring during neap tides; iv) Local mixers, microplanktonic diatoms and dinoflagellates which occurred throughout the 298 sampling stations; and v) Mixotrophic dinoflagellates, after intense estuarine discharges. Results suggest alterations in the temporal patterns for some bloom-forming species, while others appeared in abundances above safe limits for public health. This approach can also illustrate possible impacts of changes in freshwater discharge in highly urbanised estuaries.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Evaluation of impacts of climate change and local stressors on the biotechnological potential of marine macroalgae: a brief theoretical discussion of likely scenarios

Climate change can be associated with variations in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and precipitation events on the local and regional scales. Along coastal areas, flooding associated with increased occupation has seriously impacted products and services generated by marine life, in particular the biotechnological potential that macroalgae hold. Therefore, this paper analyzes the available information on the taxonomy, ecology and physiology of macroalgae and discusses the impacts of climate change and local stress on the biotechnological potential of Brazilian macroalgae. Based on data compiled from a series of floristic and ecological works, we note the disappearance in some Brazilian regions of major groups of biotechnological interest. In some cases, the introduction of exotic species has been documented, as well as expansion of the distribution range of economically important species. We also verify an increase in the similarities between the Brazilian phycogeographic provinces, although they still remain different. It is possible that these changes have resulted from the warming of South Atlantic water, as observed for its surface in southeastern Brazilian, mainly during the winter. However, unplanned urbanization of coastal areas can also produce similar biodiversity losses, which requires efforts to generate long-term temporal data on the composition, community structure and physiology of macroalgae.