Risk Assessment of the Introduction of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as a Tool to be Applied in Prevention Strategy Plan

Risks of the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 through migratory birds to the main wintering site for wild birds in southern Brazil and its consequences were assessed. Likelihoods were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Northern migrants that breed in Alaska and regularly migrate to South America (primary Charadriiformes) can have contact with birds from affected areas in Asia. The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 through migratory birds was found to be very low as it is a probability conditioned to successful transmission in breeding areas and the probabilities of an infected bird migrating and shedding the virus as far as southern Brazil. The probability of wild species becoming exposed to H5N1-infected birds is high as they nest with northern migrants from Alaska, whereas for backyard poultry it is moderate to high depending on proximity to wetlands and the presence of species that could increase the likelihood of contact with wild birds such as domestic duck. The magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of successful transmission to poultry or wild birds would be low to severe depending on the probability of the occurrence of outbreak scenarios described. As a result, the risk estimate is greater than negligible, and HPAI H5N1 prevention strategy in the region should always be carefully considered by the veterinary services in Brazil.

Longitudinal outcomes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections as competing-risks events following cervical HPV test at baseline visit in the *NIS-LAMS** cohort

Background: The complex natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections following a single HPV test can be modeled as competing-risks events (i.e., no-, transient- or persistent infection) in a longitudinal setting. The covariates associated with these compet ng events have not been previously assessed using competing-risks regression models. Objectives: To gain further insights in the outcomes of cervical HPV infections, we used univariate- and multivariate competing-risks regression models to assess the covariaies associated with these competing events. Study Design and Methods: Covariates associated with three competing outcomes (no-, transient- or persistent HR-HPV infection) were analysed in a sub-cohort of 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS Study (n = 12,114). Results: In multivariate competing-risks models (with two other outcomes as competing events), permanently HR-HPV negative outcome was significantly predicted only by the clearance of ASCUS+Pap during FU, while three independent covariates predicted transient HR-HPV infections: i) number of recent (< 12 months) sexual partners (risk increased), ii) previous Pap screening history (protective), and history of previous CIN (increased risk). The two most powerful predictors of persistent HR-HPV infections were persistent ASCUS+Pap (risk increased), and previous Pap screening history (protective). In pair-wise comparisons, number of recent sexual partners and previous CIN history increase the probability of transient HR-HPV infection against the HR-HPV negative competing event, while previous Pap screening history is protective. Persistent ASCUS+Pap during FU and no previous Pap screening history are significantly associated with the persistent HR-HPV outcome (compared both with i) always negative, and ii) transient events), whereas multiparity is protective. Conclusions: Different covariates are associated with the three main outcomes of cervical HPV infections. The most significant covariates of each competing events are probably distinct enough to enable constructing of a risk-profile for each main outcome.

Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework

In this paper, we proposed a new three-parameter long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard function, the long-term complementary exponential geometric distribution. The new distribution arises from latent competing risk scenarios, where the lifetime associated scenario, with a particular risk, is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks, and the presence of long-term survival. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability, hazard and quantile functions and order statistics. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum-likelihood approach. A simulation study assesses the performance of the estimation procedure. We compare the new distribution with its particular cases, as well as with the long-term Weibull distribution on three real data sets, observing its potential and competitiveness in comparison with some usual long-term lifetime distributions.

RISK FOR INJURIES AMONG MOTORCYCLISTS INVOLVED IN TRAFFIC INCIDENTS

The objective of this study was to identify, among motorcyclists involved in traffic incidents, the factors associated with risk of injuries. In 2004, in the city of Maringa-PR, it was determined that there were a total of 2,362 motorcyclists involved in traffic incidents, according to records from the local Military Police. Multivariate analysis was applied to identify the factors associated with the presence of injury. A significantly higher probability of injury was observed among motorcyclists involved in collisions (odds Ratio = 11.19) and falls (odds Ratio = 3.81); the estimated odds ratio for females was close to four, and those involved in incidents including up to two vehicles were 2.63 times more likely to have injuries. Women involved in motorcycle falls and collisions with up to two vehicles stood out as a high-risk group for injuries.

Accuracy of Timed Up and Go Test for screening risk of falls among community-dwelling elderly

Objective: To determine the accuracy of the Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) for screening the risk of falls among community-dwelling elderly individuals. Method: This is a prospective cohort study with a randomly by lots without reposition sample stratified by proportional partition in relation to gender involving 63 community-dwelling elderly individuals. Elderly individuals who reported having Parkinson's disease, a history of transitory ischemic attack, stroke and with a Mini Mental State Exam lower than the expected for the education level, were on a wheelchair and that reported a single fall in the previous six months were excluded. The TUGT, a mobility test, was the measure of interested and the occurrence of falls was the outcome. The performance of basic activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) was determined through the Older American Resources and Services, and the socio-demographic and clinical data were determined through the use of additional questionnaires. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves were used to analyze the sensitivity and specificity of the TUGT. Results: Elderly individuals who fell had greater difficulties in ADL and IADL (p<0.01) and a slower performance on the TUGT (p=0.02). No differences were found in socio-demographic and clinical characteristics between fallers and non- fallers. Considering the different sensitivity and specificity, the best predictive value for discriminating elderly individuals who fell was 12.47 seconds [(RR= 3.2) 95% CI: 1.3- 7.7]. Conclusions: The TUGT proved to be an accurate measure for screening the risk of falls among elderly individuals. Although different from that reported in the international literature, the 12.47 second cutoff point seems to be a better predictive value for Brazilian elderly individuals.

Gender-based violence and socioeconomic inequalities: Does living in more deprived neighbourhoods increase women's risk of intimate partner violence?

This study investigates the influence of neighbourhood socioeconomic conditions on women's likelihood of experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data from 940 women who were interviewed as part of the WHO multi-country study on women's health and domestic violence against women, and census data for Sao Paulo City, were analyzed using multilevel regression techniques. A neighbourhood socioeconomic-level scale was created, and proxies for the socioeconomic positions of the couple were included. Other individual level variables included factors related to partner's behaviour and women's experiences and attitudes. Women's risk of IPV did not vary across neighbourhoods in Sao Paulo nor was it influenced by her individual socioeconomic characteristics. However, women in the middle range of the socioeconomic scale were significantly more likely to report having experienced violence by a partner. Partner behaviours such as excessive alcohol use, controlling behaviour and multiple sexual partnerships were important predictors of IPV. A women's likelihood of IPV also increased if either her mother had experienced IPV or if she used alcohol excessively. These findings suggest that although the characteristics of people living in deprived neighbourhoods may influence the probability that a woman will experience IPV, higher-order contextual dynamics do not seem to affect this risk. While poverty reduction will improve the lives of individuals in many ways, strategies to reduce IPV should prioritize shifting norms that reinforce certain negative male behaviours. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of deterministic, reliability-based and risk-based structural optimization under uncertainty

In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of myocardial scintigraphy in the assessment of cardiovascular risk in patients with end-stage chronic kidney disease on the waiting list for renal transplantation

The usefulness of stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphy for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification in chronic kidney disease remains controversial. We tested the hypothesis that different clinical risk profiles influence the test. We assessed the prognostic value of myocardial scintigraphy in 892 consecutive renal transplant candidates classified into four risk groups: very high (aged epsilon 50 years, diabetes and CV disease), high (two factors), intermediate (one factor) and low (no factor). The incidence of CV events and death was 20 and 18, respectively (median follow-up 22 months). Altered stress testing was associated with an increased probability of cardiovascular events only in intermediate-risk (one risk factor) patients [30.3 versus 10, hazard ratio (HR) 2.37, confidence interval (CI) 1.693.33, P 0.0001]. Low-risk patients did well regardless of scan results. In patients with two or three risk factors, an altered stress test did not add to the already increased CV risk. Myocardial scintigraphy was related to overall mortality only in intermediate-risk patients (HR 2.8, CI 1.55.1, P 0.007). CV risk stratification based on myocardial stress testing is useful only in patients with just one risk factor. Screening may avoid unnecessary testing in 60 of patients, help stratifying for risk of events and provide an explanation for the inconsistent performance of myocardial scintigraphy.