A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

Impact of hypoxia on IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-3, ALS and IGFBP-1 regulation and on IGF1R gene expression in children

Hypoxia is one of many factors involved in the regulation of the IGF system. However, no information is available regarding the regulation of the IGF system by acute hypoxia in humans. Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of acute hypoxia on the IGF system of children. Design: Twenty-seven previously health children (14 boys and 13 girls) aged 15 days to 9.5 years were studied in two different situations: during a hypoxemic state (HS) due to acute respiratory distress and after full recovery to a normoxemic state (NS). In these two situations oxygen saturation was assessed with a pulse-oximeter and blood samples were collected for serum IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-3, ALS and insulin determination by ELISA; fluoroimmunometric assay determination for GH and also for IGF1R gene expression analysis in peripheral lymphocytes by quantitative real-time PCR. Data were paired and analyzed by the Wilcoxon non-parametric test. Results: Oxygen saturation was significantly lower during HS than in NS (P<0.0001). IGF-I and IGF-II levels were lower during HS than in NS (P<0.0001 and P=0.0004. respectively). IGFBP-3 levels were also lower in HS than in NS (P=0.0002) while ALS and basal GH levels were higher during HS (P=0.0015 and P=0.014, respectively). Moreover, IGFBP-1 levels were higher during HS than in NS (P=0.004). No difference was found regarding insulin levels. The expression of IGF1R mRNA as 2(-Delta Delta CT) was higher during HS than in NS (P=0.03). Conclusion: The above results confirm a role of hypoxia in the regulation of the IGF system also in humans. This effect could be direct on the liver and/or mediated by GH and it is not restricted to the hepatocytes but involves other cell lines. During acute hypoxia a combination of alterations usually associated with reduced IGF action was observed. The higher expression of IGF1R mRNA may reflect an up-regulation of the transcriptional process. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.