5 resultados para Probability sample

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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As part of the GENACIS project, this paper sought to assess the prevalence of depression in an urban sample in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, as well as the association between depression and alcohol abuse according to gender. To achieve this, an epidemiological survey was conducted using a stratified probability sample, including 2,083 adults. CIDI SF was used to identify depression. The Rao Scott test and multivariate logistic regression were used for statistical analysis. The response rate was 74.9%. Females (58.3%) under 40 years of age (52%) were predominant. The prevalence of depression was 28.3% for women and 12.7% for men. Most men declared being drinkers (61.1%) in the last year. Depression was associated with an alcohol drinking pattern, mostly binge drinking, in addition to the occurrence of problems derived from alcohol use. Most women declared being abstainers (69.5%). Depression was associated with cohabiting with spouses with alcohol-related problems. Results reveal that the association between depression and alcohol consumption is distinct between genders.

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As part of the GENACIS project, this paper sought to assess the prevalence of depression in an urban sample in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, as well as the association between depression and alcohol abuse according to gender. To achieve this, an epidemiological survey was conducted using a stratified probability sample, including 2,083 adults. CIDI SF was used to identify depression. The Rao Scott test and multivariate logistic regression were used for statistical analysis. The response rate was 74.9%. Females (58.3%) under 40 years of age (52%) were predominant. The prevalence of depression was 28.3% for women and 12.7% for men. Most men declared being drinkers (61.1%) in the last year. Depression was associated with an alcohol drinking pattern, mostly binge drinking, in addition to the occurrence of problems derived from alcohol use. Most women declared being abstainers (69.5%). Depression was associated with cohabiting with spouses with alcohol-related problems. Results reveal that the association between depression and alcohol consumption is distinct between genders.

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OBJECTIVE: To investigate drinking patterns and gender differences in alcohol-related problems in a Brazilian population, with an emphasis on the frequency of heavy drinking. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with a probability adult household sample (n = 1,464) in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Alcohol intake and ICD-10 psychopathology diagnoses were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 1.1. The analyses focused on the prevalence and determinants of 12-month non-heavy drinking, heavy episodic drinking (4-5 drinks per occasion), and heavy and frequent drinking (heavy drinking at least 3 times/week), as well as associated alcohol-related problems according to drinking patterns and gender. RESULTS: Nearly 22% (32.4% women, 8.7% men) of the subjects were lifetime abstainers, 60.3% were non-heavy drinkers, and 17.5% reported heavy drinking in a 12-month period (26.3% men, 10.9% women). Subjects with the highest frequency of heavy drinking reported the most problems. Among subjects who did not engage in heavy drinking, men reported more problems than did women. A gender convergence in the amount of problems was observed when considering heavy drinking patterns. Heavy and frequent drinkers were twice as likely as abstainers to present lifetime depressive disorders. Lifetime nicotine dependence was associated with all drinking patterns. Heavy and frequent drinking was not restricted to young ages. CONCLUSIONS: Heavy and frequent episodic drinking was strongly associated with problems in a community sample from the largest city in Latin America. Prevention policies should target this drinking pattern, independent of age or gender. These findings warrant continued research on risky drinking behavior, particularly among persistent heavy drinkers at the non-dependent level.

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Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

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OBJECTIVE: To investigate drinking patterns and gender differences in alcohol-related problems in a Brazilian population, with an emphasis on the frequency of heavy drinking. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with a probability adult household sample (n = 1,464) in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Alcohol intake and ICD-10 psychopathology diagnoses were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 1.1. The analyses focused on the prevalence and determinants of 12-month nonheavy drinking, heavy episodic drinking (4-5 drinks per occasion), and heavy and frequent drinking (heavy drinking at least 3 times/week), as well as associated alcohol-related problems according to drinking patterns and gender. RESULTS: Nearly 22% (32.4% women, 8.7% men) of the subjects were lifetime abstainers, 60.3% were non-heavy drinkers, and 17.5% reported heavy drinking in a 12-month period (26.3% men, 10.9% women). Subjects with the highest frequency of heavy drinking reported the most problems. Among subjects who did not engage in heavy drinking, men reported more problems than did women. A gender convergence in the amount of problems was observed when considering heavy drinking patterns. Heavy and frequent drinkers were twice as likely as abstainers to present lifetime depressive disorders. Lifetime nicotine dependence was associated with all drinking patterns. Heavy and frequent drinking was not restricted to young ages. CONCLUSIONS: Heavy and frequent episodic drinking was strongly associated with problems in a community sample from the largest city in Latin America. Prevention policies should target this drinking pattern, independent of age or gender. These findings warrant continued research on risky drinking behavior, particularly among persistent heavy drinkers at the non-dependent level.