Evaluating the legacy of landscape history: extinction debt and species credit in bird and small mammal assemblages in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

There is now an extensive literature on extinction debt following deforestation. However, the potential for species credit in landscapes that have experienced a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover has received little attention. Both delayed responses should depend on current landscape forest cover and on species life-history traits, such as longevity, as short-lived species are likely to respond faster than long-lived species. We evaluated the effects of historical and present-day local forest cover on two vertebrate groups with different longevities understorey birds and non-flying small mammals - in forest patches at three Atlantic Forest landscapes. Our work investigated how the probability of extinction debt and species credit varies (i) amongst landscapes with different proportions of forest cover and distinct trajectories of forest cover change, and (ii) between taxa with different life spans. Our results suggest that the existence of extinction debt and species credit, as well as the potential for their future payment and/or receipt, is not only related to forest cover trajectory but also to the amount of remaining forest cover at the landscape scale. Moreover, differences in bird and small mammal life spans seem to be insufficient to affect differently their probability of showing time-delayed responses to landscape change. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the need for considering not only the trajectory of deforestation/regeneration but also the amount of forest cover at landscape scale when investigating time-delayed responses to landscape change. As many landscapes are experiencing a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover, understanding the association of extinction and immigration processes, as well as their interactions with the landscape dynamic, is a key factor to plan conservation and restoration actions in human-altered landscapes.

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Objectives To evaluate the accuracy and probabilities of different fetal ultrasound parameters to predict neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods Between January 2004 and December 2010, we evaluated prospectively 108 fetuses with isolated CDH (82 left-sided and 26 right-sided). The following parameters were evaluated: gestational age at diagnosis, side of the diaphragmatic defect, presence of polyhydramnios, presence of liver herniated into the fetal thorax (liver-up), lung-to-head ratio (LHR) and observed/expected LHR (o/e-LHR), observed/expected contralateral and total fetal lung volume (o/e-ContFLV and o/e-TotFLV) ratios, ultrasonographic fetal lung volume/fetal weight ratio (US-FLW), observed/expected contralateral and main pulmonary artery diameter (o/e-ContPA and o/eMPA) ratios and the contralateral vascularization index (Cont-VI). The outcomes were neonatal death and severe postnatal pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Results Neonatal mortality was 64.8% (70/108). Severe PAH was diagnosed in 68 (63.0%) cases, of which 63 died neonatally (92.6%) (P < 0.001). Gestational age at diagnosis, side of the defect and polyhydramnios were not associated with poor outcome (P > 0.05). LHR, o/eLHR, liver-up, o/e-ContFLV, o/e-TotFLV, US-FLW, o/eContPA, o/e-MPA and Cont-VI were associated with both neonatal death and severe postnatal PAH (P < 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristics curves indicated that measuring total lung volumes (o/e-TotFLV and US-FLW) was more accurate than was considering only the contralateral lung sizes (LHR, o/e-LHR and o/e-ContFLV; P < 0.05), and Cont-VI was the most accurate ultrasound parameter to predict neonatal death and severe PAH (P < 0.001). Conclusions Evaluating total lung volumes is more accurate than is measuring only the contralateral lung size. Evaluating pulmonary vascularization (Cont-VI) is the most accurate predictor of neonatal outcome. Estimating the probability of survival and severe PAH allows classification of cases according to prognosis. Copyright (C) 2011 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Frequency of human platelet antigens in oncohematological patients with thrombocytopenia and the probability of incompatibility to platelet transfusions

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the frequencies of human platelet antigens in oncohematological patients with thrombocytopenia and to analyze the probability of their incompatibility with platelet transfusions. METHODS: Platelet antigen genotyping was performed by sequence-specific primer polymerase chain reaction (SSP-PCR) for the HPA-1a, HPA-1b, HPA-2a, HPA-2b, HPA-3a, HPA-3b, HPA-4a, HPA-4b, HPA-5a, HPA-5b; HPA-15a, HPA-15b alleles in 150 patients of the Hematology Service of the Hospital das Clínicas (FMUSP). RESULTS: The allele frequencies found were: HPA-1a: 0.837; HPA-1b: 0.163; HPA-2a: 0.830; HPA-2b: 0.170; HPA-3a: 0.700; HPA-3b: 0.300; HPA-4a: 1; HPA-4b: 0; HPA-5a: 0.887; HPA-5b: 0.113; HPA-15a: 0.457 and HPA-15b: 0.543. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the present study showed that the A allele is more common in the population than the B allele, except for HPA-15. This suggests that patients homozygous for the B allele are more predisposed to present alloimmunization and refractoriness to platelet transfusions by immune causes. Platelet genotyping could be of great value in the diagnosis of alloimmune thrombocytopenia and to provide compatible platelet concentrates for these patients.

PCR colorimetric dot-blot assay and clinical pretest probability for diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Smear-Negative patients

Abstract Background Smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPTB) accounts for 30% of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) cases reported annually in developing nations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) may provide an alternative for the rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB); however little data are available regarding the clinical utility of PCR in SNPTB, in a setting with a high burden of TB/HIV co-infection. Methods To evaluate the performance of the PCR dot-blot in parallel with pretest probability (Clinical Suspicion) in patients suspected of having SNPTB, a prospective study of 213 individuals with clinical and radiological suspicion of SNPTB was carried out from May 2003 to May 2004, in a TB/HIV reference hospital. Respiratory specialists estimated the pretest probability of active disease into high, intermediate, low categories. Expectorated sputum was examined by direct microscopy (Ziehl-Neelsen staining), culture (Lowenstein Jensen) and PCR dot-blot. Gold standard was based on culture positivity combined with the clinical definition of PTB. Results In smear-negative and HIV subjects, active PTB was diagnosed in 28.4% (43/151) and 42.2% (19/45), respectively. In the high, intermediate and low pretest probability categories active PTB was diagnosed in 67.4% (31/46), 24% (6/25), 7.5% (6/80), respectively. PCR had sensitivity of 65% (CI 95%: 50%–78%) and specificity of 83% (CI 95%: 75%–89%). There was no difference in the sensitivity of PCR in relation to HIV status. PCR sensitivity and specificity among non-previously TB treated and those treated in the past were, respectively: 69%, 43%, 85% and 80%. The high pretest probability, when used as a diagnostic test, had sensitivity of 72% (CI 95%:57%–84%) and specificity of 86% (CI 95%:78%–92%). Using the PCR dot-blot in parallel with high pretest probability as a diagnostic test, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were: 90%, 71%, 75%, and 88%, respectively. Among non-previously TB treated and HIV subjects, this approach had sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 91%, 79%, 81%, 90%, and 90%, 65%, 72%, 88%, respectively. Conclusion PCR dot-blot associated with a high clinical suspicion may provide an important contribution to the diagnosis of SNPTB mainly in patients that have not been previously treated attended at a TB/HIV reference hospital.

Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as a Tool to be Applied in Prevention Strategy Plan

Risks of the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 through migratory birds to the main wintering site for wild birds in southern Brazil and its consequences were assessed. Likelihoods were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Northern migrants that breed in Alaska and regularly migrate to South America (primary Charadriiformes) can have contact with birds from affected areas in Asia. The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 through migratory birds was found to be very low as it is a probability conditioned to successful transmission in breeding areas and the probabilities of an infected bird migrating and shedding the virus as far as southern Brazil. The probability of wild species becoming exposed to H5N1-infected birds is high as they nest with northern migrants from Alaska, whereas for backyard poultry it is moderate to high depending on proximity to wetlands and the presence of species that could increase the likelihood of contact with wild birds such as domestic duck. The magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of successful transmission to poultry or wild birds would be low to severe depending on the probability of the occurrence of outbreak scenarios described. As a result, the risk estimate is greater than negligible, and HPAI H5N1 prevention strategy in the region should always be carefully considered by the veterinary services in Brazil.

Replacement of fentanyl infusion by enteral methadone decreases the weaning time from mechanical ventilation: a randomized controlled trial

Introduction: Patients undergoing mechanical ventilation (MV) are frequently administered prolonged and/or high doses of opioids which when removed can cause a withdrawal syndrome and difficulty in weaning from MV. We tested the hypothesis that the introduction of enteral methadone during weaning from sedation and analgesia in critically ill adult patients on MV would decrease the weaning time from MV. Methods: A double-blind randomized controlled trial was conducted in the adult intensive care units (ICUs) of four general hospitals in Brazil. The 75 patients, who met the criteria for weaning from MV and had been using fentanyl for more than five consecutive days, were randomized to the methadone (MG) or control group (CG). Within the first 24 hours after study enrollment, both groups received 80% of the original dose of fentanyl, the MG received enteral methadone and the CG received an enteral placebo. After the first 24 hours, the MG received an intravenous (IV) saline solution (placebo), while the CG received IV fentanyl. For both groups, the IV solution was reduced by 20% every 24 hours. The groups were compared by evaluating the MV weaning time and the duration of MV, as well as the ICU stay and the hospital stay. Results: Of the 75 patients randomized, seven were excluded and 68 were analyzed: 37 from the MG and 31 from the CG. There was a higher probability of early extubation in the MG, but the difference was not significant (hazard ratio: 1.52 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87 to 2.64; P = 0.11). The probability of successful weaning by the fifth day was significantly higher in the MG (hazard ratio: 2.64 (95% CI: 1.22 to 5.69; P < 0.02). Among the 54 patients who were successfully weaned (29 from the MG and 25 from the CG), the MV weaning time was significantly lower in the MG (hazard ratio: 2.06; 95% CI 1.17 to 3.63; P < 0.004). Conclusions: The introduction of enteral methadone during weaning from sedation and analgesia in mechanically ventilated patients resulted in a decrease in the weaning time from MV.

ABCB1 haplotype is associated with major molecular response in chronic myeloid leukemia patients treated with standard-dose of imatinib

Background: Imatinib mesylate (IM) is a selective tyrosine kinase inhibitor used for treating chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). IM has high efficacy, however some individuals develop a resistance due to impaired bio-availability. Polymorphisms in genes encoding membrane transporters such as ABCB1 have been associated with differences in protein expression and function that influence the response to several drugs. Aim: To investigate the relationship of ABCB1 polymorphisms with markers of response to IM in patients with CML Methods: One hundred eighteen CML patients initially treated with a standard dose of IM (400 mg/day) for 18 months were selected at two health centers in Sao Paulo City, Brazil. The response criteria were based on the European LeukemiaNet recommendations. ABCB1 polymorphisms c.1236C>T (rs1128503), c.3435C>T (rs1045642) and c.2677G>T/A (rs2032582) were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: ABCB1 polymorphisms were not related with a risk for CML in this sample population (p<0.05). In the CML group, frequencies of ABCB1 SNPs were similar between responder and non-responder patients (p>0.05). In the responder group, the frequency of ABCB11236CT/2677GT/3435CT haplotype was higher in patients with major molecular response (MMR) (51.7%) than in patients without MMR (8.3%, p = 0.010). Furthermore, carriers of this haplotype had increased the probability of reaching the MMR compared with the non-carriers (OR: 11.8; 95% CI: 1.43-97.3, p = 0.022). Conclusions: The ABCB1 1236CT/2677GT/3435CT haplotype is positively associated with the major molecular response to IM in CML patients. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal outcomes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections as competing-risks events following cervical HPV test at baseline visit in the *NIS-LAMS** cohort

Background: The complex natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections following a single HPV test can be modeled as competing-risks events (i.e., no-, transient- or persistent infection) in a longitudinal setting. The covariates associated with these compet ng events have not been previously assessed using competing-risks regression models. Objectives: To gain further insights in the outcomes of cervical HPV infections, we used univariate- and multivariate competing-risks regression models to assess the covariaies associated with these competing events. Study Design and Methods: Covariates associated with three competing outcomes (no-, transient- or persistent HR-HPV infection) were analysed in a sub-cohort of 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS Study (n = 12,114). Results: In multivariate competing-risks models (with two other outcomes as competing events), permanently HR-HPV negative outcome was significantly predicted only by the clearance of ASCUS+Pap during FU, while three independent covariates predicted transient HR-HPV infections: i) number of recent (< 12 months) sexual partners (risk increased), ii) previous Pap screening history (protective), and history of previous CIN (increased risk). The two most powerful predictors of persistent HR-HPV infections were persistent ASCUS+Pap (risk increased), and previous Pap screening history (protective). In pair-wise comparisons, number of recent sexual partners and previous CIN history increase the probability of transient HR-HPV infection against the HR-HPV negative competing event, while previous Pap screening history is protective. Persistent ASCUS+Pap during FU and no previous Pap screening history are significantly associated with the persistent HR-HPV outcome (compared both with i) always negative, and ii) transient events), whereas multiparity is protective. Conclusions: Different covariates are associated with the three main outcomes of cervical HPV infections. The most significant covariates of each competing events are probably distinct enough to enable constructing of a risk-profile for each main outcome.

The impact of late diagnosis on the survival of patients following their first AIDS-related hospitalization in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

The purpose of this study is to estimate the survival probability of patients following their first admission for the treatment of AIDS to an infectious disease reference hospital in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, during 2005. Study subjects were monitored during a 12-month period to identify factors associated with survival probability. Late diagnosis was recorded among many of the 250 study subjects: almost half (44.8%) were diagnosed less than 30 days prior to or during their hospitalization. A high mortality rate was also detected: 39.6% of the subjects died during the 12 months of monitoring. The cumulative survival probability of the cohort group was estimated at 68.0% after 3 months and at 61.2% after 12 months. However, certain patient subgroups analyzed had even lower cumulative survival probabilities after 12 months of monitoring: if diagnosed during hospitalization, it was estimated at only 48.0% and those with no record of antiretroviral treatment had a 48.5% cumulative survival probability. Patients with severe anemia had the lowest survival probability, similar among the two lymphocyte count groups (<1000 mm(3) and >= 1000 mm(3)), the former with a 45.5% survival probability and the latter with a 46.7% one. The proportional death risk was 2.5-fold higher for men residing in other area than the capital city of the State of Minas Gerais and greater metropolitan region when compared with women residing there. The findings of this study highlight the importance of early diagnosis for predicting patient survival and reinforce the necessity off acilitating HIV diagnosis.

Inactivation of Neosartorya fischeri and Paecilomyces variotii on paperboard packaging material by hydrogen peroxide and heat

This study reports on the influence of heat and hydrogen peroxide combination on the inactivation kinetics of two heat resistant molds: Neosartorya fischeri and Paecilomyces variotii. Spores of different ages (1 and 4 months) of these molds were prepared and D-values (the time required at certain temperature/hydrogen peroxide combination to inactivate 90% of the mold ascospores) were determined using thermal death tubes. D-values found for P. variotii ranged from 1.2 to 25.1 s after exposure to different combinations of heat (40 or 60 degrees C) and hydrogen peroxide (35 or 40% w/w) while for N. fischeri they varied from 2.7 to 14.3 s after exposure to the same hydrogen peroxide concentrations and higher temperatures (60 or 70 degrees C). The influence of temperature and hydrogen peroxide concentration on the d-values varied with the genus of mold and their ages. A synergistic effect of heat and hydrogen peroxide in reducing D-values of Paecilomyces variotti and N. fischeri has been observed. In addition to strict control of temperature, time and hydrogen concentration, hygienic storage and handling of laminated paperboard material must be considered to reduce the probability of package's contamination. All these measures together will ensure package's sterility that is imperative for the effectiveness of aseptic processing and consequently to ensure the microbiological stability of processed foods during shelf-life. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of ground-penetrating radar to map subsurface features at the Lapa do Santo archaeological site (Brazil)

In this article we present some results of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) studies carried out at the Lapa do Santo archaeological site. This cave is within the Lagoa Santa karstic region, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Results from 44 GPR profiles obtained with 400 MHz shielded antennas indicated anomalous hyperbolic reflections and areas with high sub-horizontal reflection amplitude suggesting archaeological and geological potential targets, respectively. These results were encouraging and were used to guide excavations at this site. Excavation of test units (metre by metre) allowed identifying an anthropogenic feature, e.g., a fire hearth structure and natural features, such as a stalagmite and top of bedrock. Results also indicated the importance of the GPR survey as a tool for orienting archaeological researches, increasing the probability of finding archaeological interest targets in an excavation program in an area of environmental protection.

Mating system parameters at hierarchical levels of fruits, individuals and populations in the Brazilian insect-pollinated tropical tree, Tabebuia roseo-alba (Bignoniaceae)

For many tree species, mating system analyses have indicated potential variations in the selfing rate and paternity correlation among fruits within individuals, among individuals within populations, among populations, and from one flowering event to another. In this study, we used eight microsatellite markers to investigate mating systems at two hierarchical levels (fruits within individuals and individuals within populations) for the insect pollinated Neotropical tree Tabebuia roseo-alba. We found that T. roseo-alba has a mixed mating system with predominantly outcrossed mating. The outcrossing rates at the population level were similar across two T. roseo-alba populations; however, the rates varied considerably among individuals within populations. The correlated paternity results at different hierarchical levels showed that there is a high probability of shared paternal parentage when comparing seeds within fruits and among fruits within plants and full-sibs occur in much higher proportion within fruits than among fruits. Significant levels of fixation index were found in both populations and biparental inbreeding is believed to be the main cause of the observed inbreeding. The number of pollen donors contributing to mating was low. Furthermore, open-pollinated seeds varied according to relatedness, including half-sibs, full-sibs, self-sibs and self- half-sibs. In both populations, the effective population size within a family (seed-tree and its offspring) was lower than expected for panmictic populations. Thus, seeds for ex situ conservation genetics, progeny tests and reforestation must be collected from a large number of seed-trees to guarantee an adequate effective population in the sample.

Isolation, selection and characterization of root-associated growth promoting bacteria in Brazil Pine (Araucaria angustifolia)

Araucaria angustifolia, a unique species of this genus that occurs naturally in Brazil, has a high socio-economic and environmental value and is critically endangered of extinction, since it has been submitted to intense predatory exploitation during the last century. Root-associated bacteria from A. angustifolia were isolated, selected and characterized for their biotechnological potential of growth promotion and biocontrol of plant pathogenic fungi. Ninety-seven strains were isolated and subjected to chemical tests. All isolates presented at least one positive feature, characterizing them as potential PGPR. Eighteen isolates produced indole-3-acetic acid (IAA), 27 were able to solubilize inorganic phosphate, 21 isolates were presumable diazotrophs, with pellicle formation in nitrogen-free culture medium, 83 were phosphatases producers, 37 were positive for siderophores and 45 endospore-forming isolates were antagonistic to Fusarium oxysporum, a pathogen of conifers. We also observed the presence of bacterial strains with multiple beneficial mechanisms of action. Analyzing the fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) and partial sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene of these isolates, it was possible to characterize the most effective isolates as belonging to Bacillaceae (9 isolates), Enterobacteriaceae (11) and Pseudomonadaceae (1). As far as we know, this is the first study to include the species Ewingella americana as a PGPR. (C) 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.