Latent residual analysis in binary regression with skewed link

Model diagnostics is an integral part of model determination and an important part of the model diagnostics is residual analysis. We adapt and implement residuals considered in the literature for the probit, logistic and skew-probit links under binary regression. New latent residuals for the skew-probit link are proposed here. We have detected the presence of outliers using the residuals proposed here for different models in a simulated dataset and a real medical dataset.

The polysurvival model with long-term survivors

Long-term survival models have historically been considered for analyzing time-to-event data with long-term survivors fraction. However, situations in which a fraction (1 - p) of systems is subject to failure from independent competing causes of failure, while the remaining proportion p is cured or has not presented the event of interest during the time period of the study, have not been fully considered in the literature. In order to accommodate such situations, we present in this paper a new long-term survival model. Maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed as well as interval estimation and hypothesis tests. A real dataset illustrates the methodology.

The influence of connectivity on the firing rate in a neuronal network with electrical and chemical synapses

We study the firing rate properties of a cellular automaton model for a neuronal network with chemical synapses. We propose a simple mechanism in which the nonlocal connections are included, through electrical and chemical synapses. In the latter case, we introduce a time delay which produces self-sustained activity. Nonlocal connections, or shortcuts, are randomly introduced according to a specified connection probability. There is a range of connection probabilities for which neuron firing occurs, as well as a critical probability for which the firing ceases in the absence of time delay. The critical probability for nonlocal shortcuts depends on the network size according to a power-law. We also compute the firing rate amplification factor by varying both the connection probability and the time delay for different network sizes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional and socioeconomic distribution of household food availability in Brazil, in 2008-2009

OBJECTIVE: To describe the regional and socioeconomic distribution of household food availability in Brazil. METHODS: Data from the 2008-2009 Household Budget Survey on food and beverage acquisition for household consumption, conducted by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), were analyzed. The amounts of foods, recorded during seven consecutive days in the 55,970 sample households, were converted into calories and nutrients. Food quality indicators were constructed and analyzed according to the regional and socioeconomic strata of the Brazilian population. RESULTS: The amount of energy from protein was adequate in all regional and socioeconomic strata. On the other hand, an excess of free sugars and fats was observed in all regions of the country, especially in the Southern and Southeastern regions. The proportion of saturated fats was high in urban areas and consistent with the greater contribution of animal-derived products. Limited availability of fruits and vegetables was found in all regions. An increase in the fat content and reduction in carbohydrate content of the diet were observed with the increase in income. CONCLUSIONS: The negative characteristics of the Brazilian diet observed at the end of the first decade of the 21(st) century indicate the need to prioritize public policies for the promotion of healthy eating.

Research Training Program: Duke University and Brazilian Society of Cardiology

Background: Research coaching program focuses on the development of abilities and scientific reasoning. For health professionals, it may be useful to increase both the number and quality of projects and manuscripts. Objective: To evaluate the initial results and implementation methodology of the Research and Innovation Coaching Program of the Research on Research group of Duke University in the Brazilian Society of Cardiology. Methods: The program works on two bases: training and coaching. Training is done online and addresses contents on research ideas, literature search, scientific writing and statistics. After training, coaching favors the establishment of a collaboration between researchers and centers by means of a network of contacts. The present study describes the implementation and initial results in reference to the years 2011-2012. Results: In 2011, 24 centers received training, which consisted of online meetings, study and practice of the contents addressed. In January 2012, a new format was implemented with the objective of reaching more researchers. In six months, 52 researchers were allocated. In all, 20 manuscripts were published and 49 more were written and await submission and/or publication. Additionally, five research funding proposals have been elaborated. Conclusion: The number of manuscripts and funding proposals achieved the objectives initially proposed. However, the main results of this type of initiative should be measured in the long term, because the consolidation of the national production of high-quality research is a virtuous cycle that feeds itself back and expands over time. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2012;99(6):1075-1081)

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

Introduction: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. Methods: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. Results: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirao Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. Conclusions: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Disparities in female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil between 1980 and 2009

OBJECTIVE: To describe the temporal trends in female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil in its macro-regions and states between 1980 and 2009. METHODS: This was an ecological time-series study using data on breast cancer deaths registered in the Mortality Data System (SIM/WHO) and census data on the resident population collected by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE/WHO). Joinpoint regression analyses were used to identify the significant changes in trends and to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in mortality rates. RESULTS: Female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil tended to stabilize from 1994 onward (APC = 0.4%). Considering the Brazilian macro-regions, the annual mortality rates decreased in the Southeast, stabilized in the South and increased in the Northeast, North, and Midwest. Only the states of Sao Paulo (APC = -1.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (APC = -0.8%) and Rio de Janeiro (APC = -0.6%) presented a significant decline in mortality rates. The greatest increases were found in Maranhao (APC = 12%), Paraiba (APC = 11.9%), and Piaui (APC = 10.9%). CONCLUSION: Although there has been a trend toward stabilization in female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil, when the mortality rate of each macro-region and state is analyzed individually, considerable inequalities are found, with rate decline or stabilization in states with higher socioeconomic levels and a substantial increase in those with lower socioeconomic levels.

Smoking cessation and bronchial epithelial remodelling in COPD: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is associated with bronchial epithelial changes, including squamous cell metaplasia and goblet cell hyperplasia. These features are partially attributed to activation of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). Whereas smoking cessation reduces respiratory symptoms and lung function decline in COPD, inflammation persists. We determined epithelial proliferation and composition in bronchial biopsies from current and ex-smokers with COPD, and its relation to duration of smoking cessation. Methods 114 COPD patients were studied cross-sectionally: 99 males/15 females, age 62 ± 8 years, median 42 pack-years, no corticosteroids, current (n = 72) or ex-smokers (n = 42, median cessation duration 3.5 years), postbronchodilator FEV1 63 ± 9% predicted. Squamous cell metaplasia (%), goblet cell (PAS/Alcian Blue+) area (%), proliferating (Ki-67+) cell numbers (/mm basement membrane), and EGFR expression (%) were measured in intact epithelium of bronchial biopsies. Results Ex-smokers with COPD had significantly less epithelial squamous cell metaplasia, proliferating cell numbers, and a trend towards reduced goblet cell area than current smokers with COPD (p = 0.025, p = 0.001, p = 0.081, respectively), but no significant difference in EGFR expression. Epithelial features were not different between short-term quitters (<3.5 years) and current smokers. Long-term quitters (≥3.5 years) had less goblet cell area than both current smokers and short-term quitters (medians: 7.9% vs. 14.4%, p = 0.005; 7.9% vs. 13.5%, p = 0.008; respectively), and less proliferating cell numbers than current smokers (2.8% vs. 18.6%, p < 0.001). Conclusion Ex-smokers with COPD had less bronchial epithelial remodelling than current smokers, which was only observed after long-term smoking cessation (>3.5 years). Trial registration NCT00158847

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.