9 resultados para Probability Weight : Rank-dependent Utility

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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A data set of a commercial Nellore beef cattle selection program was used to compare breeding models that assumed or not markers effects to estimate the breeding values, when a reduced number of animals have phenotypic, genotypic and pedigree information available. This herd complete data set was composed of 83,404 animals measured for weaning weight (WW), post-weaning gain (PWG), scrotal circumference (SC) and muscle score (MS), corresponding to 116,652 animals in the relationship matrix. Single trait analyses were performed by MTDFREML software to estimate fixed and random effects solutions using this complete data. The additive effects estimated were assumed as the reference breeding values for those animals. The individual observed phenotype of each trait was adjusted for fixed and random effects solutions, except for direct additive effects. The adjusted phenotype composed of the additive and residual parts of observed phenotype was used as dependent variable for models' comparison. Among all measured animals of this herd, only 3160 animals were genotyped for 106 SNP markers. Three models were compared in terms of changes on animals' rank, global fit and predictive ability. Model 1 included only polygenic effects, model 2 included only markers effects and model 3 included both polygenic and markers effects. Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods performed by TM software was used to analyze the data for model comparison. Two different priors were adopted for markers effects in models 2 and 3, the first prior assumed was a uniform distribution (U) and, as a second prior, was assumed that markers effects were distributed as normal (N). Higher rank correlation coefficients were observed for models 3_U and 3_N, indicating a greater similarity of these models animals' rank and the rank based on the reference breeding values. Model 3_N presented a better global fit, as demonstrated by its low DIC. The best models in terms of predictive ability were models 1 and 3_N. Differences due prior assumed to markers effects in models 2 and 3 could be attributed to the better ability of normal prior in handle with collinear effects. The models 2_U and 2_N presented the worst performance, indicating that this small set of markers should not be used to genetically evaluate animals with no data, since its predictive ability is restricted. In conclusion, model 3_N presented a slight superiority when a reduce number of animals have phenotypic, genotypic and pedigree information. It could be attributed to the variation retained by markers and polygenic effects assumed together and the normal prior assumed to markers effects, that deals better with the collinearity between markers. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background: Few equations have been developed in veterinary medicine compared to human medicine to predict body composition. The present study was done to evaluate the influence of weight loss on biometry (BIO), bioimpedance analysis (BIA) and ultrasonography (US) in cats, proposing equations to estimate fat (FM) and lean (LM) body mass, as compared to dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as the referenced method. For this were used 16 gonadectomized obese cats (8 males and 8 females) in a weight loss program. DXA, BIO, BIA and US were performed in the obese state (T0; obese animals), after 10% of weight loss (T1) and after 20% of weight loss (T2). Stepwise regression was used to analyze the relationship between the dependent variables (FM, LM) determined by DXA and the independent variables obtained by BIO, BIA and US. The better models chosen were evaluated by a simple regression analysis and means predicted vs. determined by DXA were compared to verify the accuracy of the equations. Results: The independent variables determined by BIO, BIA and US that best correlated (p < 0.005) with the dependent variables (FM and LM) were BW (body weight), TC (thoracic circumference), PC (pelvic circumference), R (resistance) and SFLT (subcutaneous fat layer thickness). Using Mallows'Cp statistics, p value and r(2), 19 equations were selected (12 for FM, 7 for LM); however, only 7 equations accurately predicted FM and one LM of cats. Conclusions: The equations with two variables are better to use because they are effective and will be an alternative method to estimate body composition in the clinical routine. For estimated lean mass the equations using body weight associated with biometrics measures can be proposed. For estimated fat mass the equations using body weight associated with bioimpedance analysis can be proposed.

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Cancer cachexia induces loss of fat mass that accounts for a large part of the dramatic weight loss observed both in humans and in animal models; however, the literature does not provide consistent information regarding the set point of weight loss and how the different visceral adipose tissue depots contribute to this symptom. To evaluate that, 8-week-old male Wistar rats were subcutaneously inoculated with 1 ml (2 x 10(7)) of tumour cells (Walker 256). Samples of different visceral white adipose tissue (WAT) depots were collected at days 0, 4, 7 and 14 and stored at -80 degrees C (seven to ten animals/each day per group). Mesenteric and retroperitoneal depot mass was decreased to the greatest extent on day 14 compared with day 0. Gene and protein expression of PPAR gamma(2) (PPARG) fell significantly following tumour implantation in all three adipose tissue depots while C/EBP alpha (CEBPA) and SREBP-1c (SREBF1) expression decreased over time only in epididymal and retroperitoneal depots. Decreased adipogenic gene expression and morphological disruption of visceral WAT are further supported by the dramatic reduction in mRNA and protein levels of perilipin. Classical markers of inflammation and macrophage infiltration (f4/80, CD68 and MIF-1 alpha) in WAT were significantly increased in the later stage of cachexia (although showing a incremental pattern along the course of cachexia) and presented a depot-specific regulation. These results indicate that impairment in the lipid-storing function of adipose tissue occurs at different times and that the mesenteric adipose tissue is more resistant to the 'fat-reducing effect' than the other visceral depots during cancer cachexia progression. Journal of Endocrinology (2012) 215, 363-373

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CD4(+) Foxp3(+) regulatory T cells inhibit the production of interferon-?, which is the major mediator of protection against Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. In this study, we evaluated whether the protection conferred by three different vaccines against tuberculosis was associated with the number of spleen and lung regulatory T cells. We observed that after homologous immunization with the 65 000 molecular weight heat-shock protein (hsp 65) DNA vaccine, there was a significantly higher number of spleen CD4(+) Foxp3(+) cells compared with non-immunized mice. Heterologous immunization using bacillus Calmette Guerin (BCG) to prime and DNA-hsp 65 to boost (BCG/DNA-hsp 65) or BCG to prime and culture filtrate proteins (CFP)-CpG to boost (BCG/CFP-CpG) induced a significantly higher ratio of spleen CD4(+)/CD4(+) Foxp3(+) cells compared with non-immunized mice. In addition, the protection conferred by either the BCG/DNA-hsp 65 or the BCG/CFP-CpG vaccines was significant compared with the DNA-hsp 65 vaccine. Despite the higher ratio of spleen CD4(+)/CD4(+) Foxp3(+) cells found in BCG/DNA-hsp 65-immunized or BCG/CFP-CpG-immunized mice, the lungs of both groups of mice were better preserved than those of DNA-hsp 65-immunized mice. These results confirm the protective efficacy of BCG/DNA-hsp 65 and BCG/CFP-CpG heterologous prime-boost vaccines and the DNA-hsp 65 homologous vaccine. Additionally, the prime-boost regimens assayed here represent a promising strategy for the development of new vaccines to protect against tuberculosis because they probably induce a proper ratio of CD4(+) and regulatory (CD4(+) Foxp3(+)) cells during the immunization regimen. In this study, this ratio was associated with a reduced number of regulatory cells and no injury to the lungs.

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Objective: To build a life table and determine the factors related to the time of treatment of undernourished children at a nutrition rehabilitation centre (CREN), Sao Paulo, Brazil. Design: Nutritional status was assessed from weight-for-age, height-for-age and BMI-for-age Z-scores, while neuropsychomotor development was classified according to the milestones of childhood development. Life tables, Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox multiple regression models were employed in data analysis. Setting: CREN (Centre of Nutritional Recovery and Education), Sao Paulo, Brazil. Subjects: Undernourished children (n 228) from the southern slums of Sao Paulo who had received treatment at CREN under a day-hospital regime between the years 1994 and 2009. Results: The Kaplan-Meier curves of survival analysis showed statistically significant differences in the periods of treatment at CREN between children presenting different degrees of neuropsychomotor development (log-rank = 6.621; P = 0.037). Estimates based on the multivariate Cox model revealed that children aged >= 24 months at the time of admission exhibited a lower probability of nutritional rehabilitation (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.49; P = 0.046) at the end of the period compared with infants aged up 12 months. Children presenting slow development were better rehabilitated in comparison with those exhibiting adequate evolution (HR = 4.48; P = 0.023). No significant effects of sex, degree of undernutrition or birth weight on the probability of nutritional rehabilitation were found. Conclusions: Age and neuropsychomotor developmental status at the time of admission to CREN are critical factors in determining the duration of treatment.

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Objectives To evaluate the accuracy and probabilities of different fetal ultrasound parameters to predict neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods Between January 2004 and December 2010, we evaluated prospectively 108 fetuses with isolated CDH (82 left-sided and 26 right-sided). The following parameters were evaluated: gestational age at diagnosis, side of the diaphragmatic defect, presence of polyhydramnios, presence of liver herniated into the fetal thorax (liver-up), lung-to-head ratio (LHR) and observed/expected LHR (o/e-LHR), observed/expected contralateral and total fetal lung volume (o/e-ContFLV and o/e-TotFLV) ratios, ultrasonographic fetal lung volume/fetal weight ratio (US-FLW), observed/expected contralateral and main pulmonary artery diameter (o/e-ContPA and o/eMPA) ratios and the contralateral vascularization index (Cont-VI). The outcomes were neonatal death and severe postnatal pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Results Neonatal mortality was 64.8% (70/108). Severe PAH was diagnosed in 68 (63.0%) cases, of which 63 died neonatally (92.6%) (P < 0.001). Gestational age at diagnosis, side of the defect and polyhydramnios were not associated with poor outcome (P > 0.05). LHR, o/eLHR, liver-up, o/e-ContFLV, o/e-TotFLV, US-FLW, o/eContPA, o/e-MPA and Cont-VI were associated with both neonatal death and severe postnatal PAH (P < 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristics curves indicated that measuring total lung volumes (o/e-TotFLV and US-FLW) was more accurate than was considering only the contralateral lung sizes (LHR, o/e-LHR and o/e-ContFLV; P < 0.05), and Cont-VI was the most accurate ultrasound parameter to predict neonatal death and severe PAH (P < 0.001). Conclusions Evaluating total lung volumes is more accurate than is measuring only the contralateral lung size. Evaluating pulmonary vascularization (Cont-VI) is the most accurate predictor of neonatal outcome. Estimating the probability of survival and severe PAH allows classification of cases according to prognosis. Copyright (C) 2011 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Abstract Background Smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPTB) accounts for 30% of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) cases reported annually in developing nations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) may provide an alternative for the rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB); however little data are available regarding the clinical utility of PCR in SNPTB, in a setting with a high burden of TB/HIV co-infection. Methods To evaluate the performance of the PCR dot-blot in parallel with pretest probability (Clinical Suspicion) in patients suspected of having SNPTB, a prospective study of 213 individuals with clinical and radiological suspicion of SNPTB was carried out from May 2003 to May 2004, in a TB/HIV reference hospital. Respiratory specialists estimated the pretest probability of active disease into high, intermediate, low categories. Expectorated sputum was examined by direct microscopy (Ziehl-Neelsen staining), culture (Lowenstein Jensen) and PCR dot-blot. Gold standard was based on culture positivity combined with the clinical definition of PTB. Results In smear-negative and HIV subjects, active PTB was diagnosed in 28.4% (43/151) and 42.2% (19/45), respectively. In the high, intermediate and low pretest probability categories active PTB was diagnosed in 67.4% (31/46), 24% (6/25), 7.5% (6/80), respectively. PCR had sensitivity of 65% (CI 95%: 50%–78%) and specificity of 83% (CI 95%: 75%–89%). There was no difference in the sensitivity of PCR in relation to HIV status. PCR sensitivity and specificity among non-previously TB treated and those treated in the past were, respectively: 69%, 43%, 85% and 80%. The high pretest probability, when used as a diagnostic test, had sensitivity of 72% (CI 95%:57%–84%) and specificity of 86% (CI 95%:78%–92%). Using the PCR dot-blot in parallel with high pretest probability as a diagnostic test, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were: 90%, 71%, 75%, and 88%, respectively. Among non-previously TB treated and HIV subjects, this approach had sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 91%, 79%, 81%, 90%, and 90%, 65%, 72%, 88%, respectively. Conclusion PCR dot-blot associated with a high clinical suspicion may provide an important contribution to the diagnosis of SNPTB mainly in patients that have not been previously treated attended at a TB/HIV reference hospital.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

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The relationship of body weight (BW) with white adipose tissue (WAT) mass and WAT gene expression pattern was investigated in mice submitted to physical training (PT). Adult male C57BL/6 mice were submitted to two 1.5-h daily swimming sessions (T, N = 18), 5 days/week for 4 weeks or maintained sedentary (S, N = 15). Citrate synthase activity increased significantly in the T group (P < 0.05). S mice had a substantial weight gain compared to T mice (4.06 ± 0.43 vs 0.38 ± 0.28 g, P < 0.01). WAT mass, adipocyte size, and the weights of gastrocnemius and soleus muscles, lung, kidney, and adrenal gland were not different. Liver and heart were larger and the spleen was smaller in T compared to S mice (P < 0.05). Food intake was higher in T than S mice (4.7 ± 0.2 vs 4.0 ± 0.3 g/animal, P < 0.05) but oxygen consumption at rest did not differ between groups. T animals showed higher serum leptin concentration compared to S animals (6.37 ± 0.5 vs 3.11 ± 0.12 ng/mL). WAT gene expression pattern obtained by transcription factor adipocyte determination and differentiation-dependent factor 1, fatty acid synthase, malic enzyme, hormone-sensitive lipase, adipocyte lipid binding protein, leptin, and adiponectin did not differ significantly between groups. Collectively, our results showed that PT prevents BW gain and maintains WAT mass due to an increase in food intake and unchanged resting metabolic rate. These responses are closely related to unchanged WAT gene expression patterns.