12 resultados para Precipitation forecasting
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo
Resumo:
This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.
Resumo:
In order to investigate the climate variability in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region, this paper focuses on the relationship between stable isotope content of precipitation and firn, and main meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity, sea surface temperature, and sea ice extent). Between 2008 and 2010, we collected precipitation samples and retrieved firn cores from several key sites in this region. We conclude that the deuterium excess oscillation represents a robust indicator of the meteorological variability on a seasonal to sub-seasonal scale. Low absolute deuterium excess values and the synchronous variation of both deuterium excess and air temperature imply that the evaporation of moisture occurs in the adjacent Southern Ocean. The delta O-18-air temperature relationship is complicated and significant only at a (multi)seasonal scale. Backward trajectory calculations show that air-parcels arriving at the region during precipitation events predominantly originate at the South Pacific Ocean and Bellingshausen Sea. These investigations will be used as a calibration for ongoing and future research in the area, suggesting that appropriate locations for future ice core research are located above 600 m a.s.l. We selected the Plateau Laclavere, Antarctic Peninsula as the most promising site for a deeper drilling campaign.
Resumo:
In this analysis a 3.5 years data set of aerosol and precipitation chemistry, obtained in a remote site in Central Amazonia (Balbina, (1A degrees 55' S, 59A degrees 29' W, 174 m a.s.l.), about 200 km north of Manaus) is discussed. Aerosols were sampled using stacked filter units (SFU), which separate fine (d < 2.5 mu m) and coarse mode (2.5 mu m < d < 10.0 mu m) aerosol particles. Filters were analyzed for particulate mass (PM), Equivalent Black Carbon (BCE) and elemental composition by Particle Induced X-Ray Emission (PIXE). Rainwater samples were collected using a wet-only sampler and samples were analyzed for pH and ionic composition, which was determined using ionic chromatography (IC). Natural sources dominated the aerosol mass during the wet season, when it was predominantly of natural biogenic origin mostly in the coarse mode, which comprised up to 81% of PM10. Biogenic aerosol from both primary emissions and secondary organic aerosol dominates the fine mode in the wet season, with very low concentrations (average 2.2 mu g m(-3)). Soil dust was responsible for a minor fraction of the aerosol mass (less than 17%). Sudden increases in the concentration of elements as Al, Ti and Fe were also observed, both in fine and coarse mode (mostly during the April-may months), which we attribute to episodes of Saharan dust transport. During the dry periods, a significant contribution to the fine aerosols loading was observed, due to the large-scale transport of smoke from biomass burning in other portions of the Amazon basin. This contribution is associated with the enhancement of the concentration of S, K, Zn and BCE. Chlorine, which is commonly associated to sea salt and also to biomass burning emissions, presented higher concentration not only during the dry season but also for the April-June months, due to the establishment of more favorable meteorological conditions to the transport of Atlantic air masses to Central Amazonia. The chemical composition of rainwater was similar to those ones observed in other remote sites in tropical forests. The volume-weighted mean (VWM) pH was 4.90. The most important contribution to acidity was from weak organic acids. The organic acidity was predominantly associated with the presence of acetic acid instead of formic acid, which is more often observed in pristine tropical areas. Wet deposition rates for major species did not differ significantly between dry and wet season, except for NH4+, citrate and acetate, which had smaller deposition rates during dry season. While biomass burning emissions were clearly identified in the aerosol component, it did not present a clear signature in rainwater. The biogenic component and the long-range transport of sea salt were observed both in aerosols and rainwater composition. The results shown here indicate that in Central Amazonia it is still possible to observe quite pristine atmospheric conditions, relatively free of anthropogenic influences.
Resumo:
The RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model-version 3) was nested in HadAM3 model to simulate present (1975-1989, referred hereafter as RegHad) and two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2 from 2071 to 2085, referred as RegA2 and RegB2) over the South America (SA) and South Atlantic Ocean (SAO). Projected changes in the air temperature, precipitation, low level circulation and cyclogenesis climatology were investigated. The cyclogenesis were identified using an automatic scheme for tracking based on the minimum of relative vorticity (zeta) from 10-m height wind. During summer, a general decrease (increase) in the precipitation is projected by RegA2 and RegB2 over the northeastern SA (center-west and south Brazil, north Argentina and Uruguay). For winter, an anomalous low level anticyclonic circulation is associated with the reduction in the rainfall over the central part of southern Brazil in RegA2 and RegB2 scenarios. Similar to HadAM3, RegCM3 projects larger warming in A2 scenario. For the present climate, when compared to HadAM3, RegHad defines better both the location of the main cyclogenetic areas and its annual cycle near southwestern SAO. The projections indicate a reduction in the total number of cyclones of -7.2% and -4.7% for RegA2 and RegB2, respectively, while HadAM3 reduction is -4.5% for both scenarios. The decrease is larger for initially intense cyclones (zeta <=-<= 2.5 x 10(-5) s-(1)): -20.9% (RegA2) and -11.3% (RegB2). For the lifetime, distance traveled and mean velocity of the cyclones, the A2 and B2 scenarios present mean values close to the present climate ( 3 days, 1900 km, and 9 m s(-1), respectively). Regarding the initial mean vorticity of the systems, RegB2 simulates values similar to the present climate, but they are initially weaker in RegA2. In general, RegA2 and RegB2 show a large decrease in the number of cyclones over the southern SAO due to an anticyclonic anomaly covering SAO between 30-55A degrees S. The reduction is larger in the scenario with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases (RegA2).
Resumo:
Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.
Resumo:
This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Resumo:
Stable carbon isotopic fractionation during calcium carbonate precipitation induced by urease-catalysed hydrolysis of urea was experimentally investigated in artificial water at a constant temperature of 30 degrees C. Carbon isotope fractionation during urea hydrolysis follows a Rayleigh distillation trend characterized by a C-13-enrichment factor of -20 to -22 parts per thousand. CaCO3 precipitate is up to 17.9 parts per thousand C-13-depleted relative to the urea substrate (-48.9 +/- 0.07 parts per thousand). Initial CaCO3 precipitate forms close to isotopic equilibrium with dissolved inorganic carbon. Subsequent precipitation occurs at -2 to -3 parts per thousand offset from isotopic equilibrium, suggesting that the initial delta C-13 value of CaCO3 is reset through dissolution followed by reprecipitation with urease molecules playing a role in offsetting the delta C-13 value of CaCO3 from isotopic equilibrium. Potentially, this isotopic systematics may provide a tool for the diagnosis of ureolytically-formed carbonate cements used as sealing agent. Moreover, it may serve as a basis to develop a carbon isotope tool for the quantification of ureolytically-induced CO2 sequestration. Finally, it suggests carbon isotope disequilibrium as a hallmark of past enzymatic activity in ancient microbial carbonate formation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We measured polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in bulk precipitation in the Fortaleza metropolitan area, Ceara, Brazil, for the first time. Because little information is available concerning PAHs in tropical climatic regions, we assessed their spatial distribution and possible sources and the influence of urban activities on the depositional fluxes of PAHs in bulk precipitation. The concentrations of individual and total PAHs (Sigma(PAHs)) in bulk precipitation ranged from undetectable to 133.9 ng.L-1 and from 202.6 to 674.8 ng.L-1, respectively. The plume of highest concentrations was most intense in a zone with heavy automobile traffic and favorable topography for the concentration of emitted pollutants. The depositional fluxes of PAHs in bulk precipitation calculated in this study (undetectable to 0.87 mu g.m(-2).month(-1)) are 4 to 27 times smaller than those reported from tourist sites and industrial and urban areas in the Northern Hemisphere. Diagnostic ratio analyses of PAH samples showed that the major source of emissions is gasoline exhaust, with a small percentage originating from diesel fuel. Contributions from coal and wood combustion were also found. Major economic activities appear to contribute to pollutant emissions. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Bromelain is an aqueous extract of pineapple that contains a complex mixture of proteases and non-protease components. These enzymes perform an important role in proteolytic modulation of the cellular matrix in numerous physiologic processes, including anti-inflammatory, anti-thrombotic and fibrinolytic functions. Due to the scale of global production of pineapple (Ananas comosus L.), and the high percentage of waste generated in their cultivation and processing, several studies have been conducted on the recovery of bromelain. The aim of this study was to purify bromelain from pineapple wastes using an easy-to-scale-up process of precipitation by ethanol. The results showed that bromelain was recovered by using ethanol at concentrations of 30% and 70%, in which a purification factor of 2.28 fold was achieved, and yielded more than 98% of the total enzymatic activity. This enzyme proved to be susceptible to denaturation after the lyophilization process. However, by using 10% (w/v) glucose as a cryoprotector, it was possible to preserve 90% of the original enzymatic activity. The efficiency of the purification process was confirmed by SDS-PAGE, and native-PAGE electrophoresis, fluorimetry, circular dichroism and FTIR analyzes, showing that this method could be used to obtain highly purified and structurally stable bromelain. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The expansion of soybean cultivation into the Amazon in Brazil has potential hydrological effects at local to regional scales. To determine the impacts of soybean agriculture on hydrology, a comparison of net precipitation (throughfall, stemflow) in undisturbed tropical forest and soybean fields on the southern edge of the Amazon Basin in the state of Mato Grosso is needed. This study measured throughfall with troughs and stemflow with collar collectors during two rainy seasons. The results showed that in forest 91.6% of rainfall was collected as throughfall and 0.3% as stemflow, while in soybean fields with two-month old plants, 46.2% of rainfall was collected as throughfall and 9.0% as stemflow. Hence, interception of precipitation in soybean fields was far greater than in intact forests. Differences in throughfall, stemflow and net precipitation were found to be mainly associated with differences in plant structure and stem density in transitional forest and soybean cropland. Because rainfall interception in soybean fields is higher than previously believed and because both the area of cropland and the frequency of crop cycles (double cropping) are increasing rapidly, interception needs to be reconsidered in regional water balance models when consequences of land cover changes are analyzed in the Amazon soybean frontier region. Based on the continued expansion of soybean fields across the landscape and the finding that net precipitation is lower in soy agriculture, a reduction in water availability in the long term can be assumed. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Objectives: Stimulation of salivary flow is considered a preventive strategy for dental erosion. Alternatively, products containing calcium phosphate, such as a complex of casein phosphopeptide–amorphous calcium phosphate (CPP–ACP), have also been tested against dental erosion. Therefore, this in situ study analyzed the effect of chewing gum containing CPP–ACP on the mineral precipitation of initial bovine enamel erosion lesions. Methods: Twelve healthy adult subjects wore palatal appliances with two eroded bovine enamel samples. The erosion lesions were produced by immersion in 0.1% citric acid (pH 2.5) for 7 min. During three experimental crossover in situ phases (1 day each), the subjects chewed a type of gum, 3 times for 30 min, in each phase: with CPP–ACP (trident total), without CPP–ACP (trident), and no chewing gum (control). The Knoop surface microhardness was measured at baseline, after erosion in vitro and the mineral precipitation in situ. The differences in the degree of mineral precipitation were analyzed using repeated measures (RM-) ANOVA and post hoc Tukey’s test ( p < 0.05). Results: Significant differences were found among the remineralizing treatments ( p < 0.0001). Chewing gum (19% of microhardness recovery) improved the mineral precipitation compared to control (10%) and the addition of CPP–ACP into the gum promoted the best mineral precipitation effect (30%). Conclusions: Under this protocol, CPP–ACP chewing gum improved the mineral precipitation of eroded enamel. Clinical significance: Since the prevalence of dental erosion is steadily increasing, CPP–ACP chewing gum might be an important strategy to reduce th eprogression of initial erosion lesions.
Resumo:
The effects of cryogenic and stress relief treatments on temper carbide precipitation in the cold work tool steel AISI D2 were studied. For the cryogenic treatment the temperature was −196°C and the holding time was 2, 24 or 30 h. The stress relief heat treatment was carried at 130°C/90 min, when applied. All specimens were compared to a standard thermal cycle. Specimens were studied using metallographic characterisation, X-ray diffraction and thermoelectric power measurements. The metallographic characterisation used SEM (scanning electron microscopy) and SEM-FEG (SEM with field emission gun), besides OM (optical microscopy). No variation in the secondary carbides (micrometre sized) precipitation was found. The temper secondary carbides (nanosized) were found to be more finely dispersed in the matrix of the specimens with cryogenic treatment and without stress relief. The refinement of the temper secondary carbides was attributed to a possible in situ carbide precipitation during tempering.