Accuracy of Screening for Potentially Malignant Disorders of the Oral Mucosa by Dentists in Primary Care

Purpose: To examine the accuracy of a screening programme for potentially malignant disorders of the oral mucosa by visual inspection in primary health care. Materials and Methods: The study was based on secondary data from the Primary Care Information System maintained by seven units of family health in Sao Paulo City managed by a non-governmental agency. The reference population was composed of 15,072 residents 50 years old or more of both genders. The study population comprised 2,980 individuals. During screening in community settings, the oral mucosa was examined by trained dentists and distributed into two categories: (a) screen negative (b) screen positive. All participants underwent comprehensive clinical exams by a general dental practitioner supervised by a specialist. Individual records were grouped in a working dataset. Point and 95% confidence interval estimates were calculated regarding measures of sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp) and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively). Results: 18.0% of the population was considered screen positive. A total of 133 lesions (4.5%) were identified and 8 cases of oral cancer were confirmed, which corresponded to a prevalence rate of 27 cases in 10,000 people, a much higher rate than expected. The measures found were Se: 91.7% (85.3-95.6), Sp: 85.4% (84.1-86.7), PPV: 22.7% (19.3-26.5), NPV: 99.5% (99.2-99.8). The visual screen presented high accuracy. Conclusion: The test presented high sensibility and specificity values. From a public health point of view, the high accuracy levels showed the importance of oral health teams on family health strategy for more comprehensive primary care. Targeting risk groups and delegating the screening to community health agents may improve PPV and coverage.

Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7