Cointegration: Bayesian Significance Test

To estimate causal relationships, time series econometricians must be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule (1926). To deal with this problem, one can work either with differenced series or multivariate models: VAR (VEC or VECM) models. These models usually include at least one cointegration relation. Although the Bayesian literature on VAR/VEC is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. (1999) highlighted that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results". The present article applies the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), especially designed to deal with sharp hypotheses, to cointegration rank selection tests in VECM time series models. It shows the FBST implementation using both simulated and available (in the literature) data sets. As illustration, standard non informative priors are used.

Color vision impairment in type 2 diabetes assessed by the D-15d test and the Cambridge Colour Test

Color vision impairment emerges at early stages of diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) and may precede diabetic retinopathy or the appearance of vascular alterations in the retina. The aim of the present study was to compare the evaluation of the color vision with two different tests - the Lanthony desaturated D-15d test (a traditional color arrangement test), and the Cambridge Colour Test (CCT) (a computerized color discrimination test) - in patients diagnosed with DM2 without clinical signs of diabetic retinopathy (DR), and in sex- and age-matched control groups. Both color tests revealed statistically significant differences between the controls and the worst eyes of the DM2 patients. In addition, the degree of color vision impairment diagnosed by both tests correlated with the disease duration. The D-15d outcomes indicated solely tritan losses. In comparison, CCT outcomes revealed diffuse losses in color discrimination: 13.3% for best eyes and 29% for worst eyes. In addition, elevation of tritan thresholds in the DM2 patients, as detected by the Trivector subtest of the CCT, was found to correlate with the level of glycated hemoglobin. Outcomes of both tests confirm that subclinical losses of color vision are present in DM2 patients at an early stage of the disease, prior to signs of retinopathy. Considering the advantages of the CCT test compared to the D-15d test, further studies should attempt to verify and/or improve the efficiency of the CCT test.

MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF MAXIMUM POWER GENERATED BY PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS AND FITTING CURVES FOR STANDARD TEST CONDITIONS

The rural electrification is characterized by geographical dispersion of the population, low consumption, high investment by consumers and high cost. Moreover, solar radiation constitutes an inexhaustible source of energy and in its conversion into electricity photovoltaic panels are used. In this study, equations were adjusted to field conditions presented by the manufacturer for current and power of small photovoltaic systems. The mathematical analysis was performed on the photovoltaic rural system I- 100 from ISOFOTON, with power 300 Wp, located at the Experimental Farm Lageado of FCA/UNESP. For the development of such equations, the circuitry of photovoltaic cells has been studied to apply iterative numerical methods for the determination of electrical parameters and possible errors in the appropriate equations in the literature to reality. Therefore, a simulation of a photovoltaic panel was proposed through mathematical equations that were adjusted according to the data of local radiation. The results have presented equations that provide real answers to the user and may assist in the design of these systems, once calculated that the maximum power limit ensures a supply of energy generated. This real sizing helps establishing the possible applications of solar energy to the rural producer and informing the real possibilities of generating electricity from the sun.