A general threshold stress hybrid hazard model for lifetime data

In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

Global and Regional Ventricular Repolarization Study by Body Surface Potential Mapping in Patients with Left Bundle-Branch Block and Heart Failure Undergoing Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

Background: The controversial effects promoted by cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) on the ventricular repolarization (VR) have motivated VR evaluation by body surface potential mapping (BSPM) in CRT patients. Methods: Fifty-two CRT patients, mean age 58.8 +/- 12.3 years, 31 male, LVEF 27.5 +/- 9.2, NYHA III-IV heart failure with QRS181.5 +/- 14.2 ms, underwent 87-lead BSPM in sinus rhythm (BASELINE) and biventricular pacing (BIV). Measurements of mean and corrected QT intervals and dispersion, mean and corrected T peak end intervals and their dispersion, and JT intervals characterized global and regional (RV, Intermediate, and LV regions) ventricular repolarization response. Results: Global QTm (P < 0.001) and QTcm (P < 0.05) were decreased in BIV; QTm was similar across regions in both modes (P = ns); QTcm values were lower in RV/LV than in Intermediate region in BASELINE and BIV (P < 0.001); only RV/Septum showed a significant difference (P < 0.01) in the BIV mode. QTD values both of BASELINE (P < 0.01) and BIV (P < 0.001) were greater in the Intermediate than in the LV region. CRT effect significantly reduced global/regional QTm and QTcm values. QTD was globally decreased in RV/LV (Intermediate: P = ns). BIV mode significantly reduced global T peak end mean and corrected intervals and their dispersion. JT values were not significant. Conclusions: Ventricular repolarization parameters QTm, QTcm, and QTD global/regional values, as assessed by BSPM, were reduced in patients under CRT with severe HF and LBBB. Greater recovery impairment in the Intermediate region was detected by the smaller variation of its dispersion.

Short communication: Principal components and factor analytic models for test-day milk yield in Brazilian Holstein cattle

A total of 46,089 individual monthly test-day (TD) milk yields (10 test-days), from 7,331 complete first lactations of Holstein cattle were analyzed. A standard multivariate analysis (MV), reduced rank analyses fitting the first 2, 3, and 4 genetic principal components (PC2, PC3, PC4), and analyses that fitted a factor analytic structure considering 2, 3, and 4 factors (FAS2, FAS3, FAS4), were carried out. The models included the random animal genetic effect and fixed effects of the contemporary groups (herd-year-month of test-day), age of cow (linear and quadratic effects), and days in milk (linear effect). The residual covariance matrix was assumed to have full rank. Moreover, 2 random regression models were applied. Variance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood method. The heritability estimates ranged from 0.11 to 0.24. The genetic correlation estimates between TD obtained with the PC2 model were higher than those obtained with the MV model, especially on adjacent test-days at the end of lactation close to unity. The results indicate that for the data considered in this study, only 2 principal components are required to summarize the bulk of genetic variation among the 10 traits.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Effects of selective bile duct ligation on liver parenchyma in young animals: histologic and molecular evaluations

Background/Purpose: The mechanisms of increased collagen production and liver parenchyma fibrosis are poorly understood. These phenomena are observed mainly in children with biliary obstruction (BO), and in a great number of patients, the evolution to biliary cirrhosis and hepatic failure leads to the need for liver transplantation before adolescence. However, pediatric liver transplantation presents with biliary complications in 20% to 30% of cases in the postoperative period. Intra-or extrahepatic stenosis of bile ducts is frequent and may lead to secondary biliary cirrhosis and the need for retransplantation. It is unknown whether biliary stenosis involving isolated segments or lobes may affect the adjacent nonobstructed lobes by paracrine or endocrine means, leading to fibrosis in this parenchyma. Therefore, the present study aimed to create an experimental model of selective biliary duct ligation in young animals with a subsequent evaluation of the histologic and molecular alterations in liver parenchyma of the obstructed and nonobstructed lobes. Methods: After a pilot study to standardize the surgical procedures, weaning rats underwent ligation of the bile ducts of the median, left lateral, and caudate liver lobes. The bile duct of the right lateral lobe was kept intact. To avoid intrahepatic biliary duct collaterals neoformation, the parenchymal connection between the right lateral and median lobes was clamped. The animals were divided into groups according to the time of death: 1, 2, 3, 4, and 8 weeks after surgical procedure. After death, the median and left lateral lobes (with BO) and the right lateral lobe (without BO [NBO]) were harvested separately. A group of 8 healthy nonoperated on animals served as controls. Liver tissues were subjected to histologic evaluation and quantification of the ductular proliferation and of the portal fibrosis. The expressions of smooth muscle alpha-actin (alpha-SMA), desmin, and transforming growth factor beta 1 genes were studied by molecular analyses (semiquantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and real-time polymerase chain reaction, a quantitative method). Results: Histologic analyses revealed the occurrence of ductular proliferation and collagen formation in the portal spaces of both BO and NBO lobes. These phenomena were observed later in NBO than BO. Bile duct density significantly increased 1 week after duct ligation; it decreased after 2 and 3 weeks and then increased again after 4 and 8 weeks in both BO and NBO lobes. The portal space collagen area increased after 2 weeks in both BO and NBO lobes. After 3 weeks, collagen deposition in BO was even higher, and in NBO, the collagen area started decreasing after 2 weeks. Molecular analyses revealed increased expression of the alpha-SMA gene in both BO and NBO lobes. The semiquantitative and quantitative methods showed concordant results. Conclusions: The ligation of a duct responsible for biliary drainage of the liver lobe promoted alterations in the parenchyma and in the adjacent nonobstructed parenchyma by paracrine and/or endocrine means. This was supported by histologic findings and increased expression of alpha-SMA, a protein related to hepatic fibrogenesis. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework

In this paper, we proposed a new three-parameter long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard function, the long-term complementary exponential geometric distribution. The new distribution arises from latent competing risk scenarios, where the lifetime associated scenario, with a particular risk, is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks, and the presence of long-term survival. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability, hazard and quantile functions and order statistics. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum-likelihood approach. A simulation study assesses the performance of the estimation procedure. We compare the new distribution with its particular cases, as well as with the long-term Weibull distribution on three real data sets, observing its potential and competitiveness in comparison with some usual long-term lifetime distributions.

Protein quality control disruption by PKC beta II in heart failure: rescue by the selective PKC beta II inhibitor, beta IIV5-3

Myocardial remodeling and heart failure (HF) are common sequelae of many forms of cardiovascular disease and a leading cause of mortality worldwide. Accumulation of damaged cardiac proteins in heart failure has been described. However, how protein quality control (PQC) is regulated and its contribution to HF development are not known. Here, we describe a novel role for activated protein kinase C isoform beta II (PKC beta II) in disrupting PQC. We show that active PKC beta II directly phosphorylated the proteasome and inhibited proteasomal activity in vitro and in cultured neonatal cardiomyocytes. Importantly, inhibition of PKC beta II, using a selective PKC beta II peptide inhibitor (beta IIV5-3), improved proteasomal activity and conferred protection in cultured neonatal cardiomyocytes. We also show that sustained inhibition of PKC beta II increased proteasomal activity, decreased accumulation of damaged and misfolded proteins and increased animal survival in two rat models of HF. Interestingly, beta IIV5-3-mediated protection was blunted by sustained proteasomal inhibition in HF. Finally, increased cardiac PKC beta II activity and accumulation of misfolded proteins associated with decreased proteasomal function were found also in remodeled and failing human hearts, indicating a potential clinical relevance of our findings. Together, our data highlights PKC beta II as a novel inhibitor of proteasomal function. PQC disruption by increased PKC beta II activity in vivo appears to contribute to the pathophysiology of heart failure, suggesting that PKC beta II inhibition may benefit patients with heart failure. (218 words)

Morphologic and biomechanical changes of thoracic and abdominal aorta in a rat model of cigarette smoke exposure

Background: Smoking is the most relevant environmental factor that affects the development of aortic aneurysm. Smokers have elevated levels of elastase activity in the arterial wall, which leads to weakening of the aorta. The aim of this study was to verify whether cigarette smoke exposure itself is capable of altering the aortic wall. Methods: Forty-eight Wistar rats were divided into 2-, 4-, and 6-month experimental periods and into 2 groups: smokers (submitted to smoke exposure at a rate of 40 cigarettes/day) and nonsmokers. At the end of the experimental periods, the aortas were removed and crosssectioned to obtain histologic specimens for light microscopic and morphometric analyses. The remaining longitudinal segments were stretched to rupture and mechanical parameters were determined. Results: A degenerative process (i.e., a reduction in elastic fibers, the loss of lamellar arrangement, and a reduction of smooth muscle cells) was observed, and this effect was proportional in intensity to the period of tobacco exposure. We observed a progressive reduction in the yield point of the thoracic aorta over time (P < 0.05). There was a decrease in stiffness (P < 0.05) and in failure load (P < 0.05) at 6 months in the abdominal aorta of rats in the smoking group. Conclusions: Chronic exposure to tobacco smoke can affect the mechanical properties of the aorta and can also provoke substantial structural changes of the arterial wall

A compound heterozygote SLC26A2 mutation resulting in robin sequence, mild limbs shortness, accelerated carpal ossification, and multiple epiphysial dysplasia in two Brazilian sisters. A new intermediate phenotype between diastrophic dysplasia and recessive multiple epiphyseal dysplasia

Mutations in solute carrier family 26 (sulfate transporter), member 2 (SLC26A2) gene result in a spectrum of autosomal recessive chondrodysplasias that range from the mildest recessive form of multiple epiphysial dysplasia (rMED) through the most common diastrophic dysplasia (DTD) to lethal atelosteogenesis type II and achondrogenesis IB. The clinical variability has been ascribed to quantitative effect of mutations of the sulfate transporter activity. Here we describe two Brazilian sisters, born to healthy and non consanguineous parents, with Robin sequence, mild shortening of upper and lower limbs, brachymetacarpalia/tarsalia, additional and accelerated carpal ossification, marked genu valgum, and multiple epiphysial dysplasia. This phenotype was intermediate between DTD and rMED, and both girls have a compound heterozygous mutations for the SLC26A2, a Finnish founder mutation (c.-26?+?2T>C), and R279W. This combination of mutations has been observed in individuals with different phenotypes, including DTD, DTD variant, and rMED. The distinct phenotype of our cases reinforces the hypothesis that other factors may be influencing the phenotype as previously suggested.

Testing phenomenological and theoretical models of dark matter density profiles with galaxy clusters

We use the stacked gravitational lensingmass profile of four high-mass (M 1015M ) galaxy clusters around z≈0.3 from Umetsu et al. to fit density profiles of phenomenological [Navarro– Frenk–White (NFW), Einasto, S´ersic, Stadel, Baltz–Marshall–Oguri (BMO) and Hernquist] and theoretical (non-singular Isothermal Sphere, DARKexp and Kang & He) models of the dark matter distribution. We account for large-scale structure effects, including a two-halo term in the analysis.We find that the BMO model provides the best fit to the data as measured by the reduced χ2. It is followed by the Stadel profile, the generalized NFW profile with a free inner slope and by the Einasto profile. The NFW model provides the best fit if we neglect the two-halo term, in agreement with results from Umetsu et al. Among the theoretical profiles, the DARKexp model with a single form parameter has the best performance, very close to that of the BMO profile. This may indicate a connection between this theoretical model and the phenomenology of dark matter haloes, shedding light on the dynamical basis of empirical profiles which emerge from numerical simulations.