15 resultados para Ocean currents forecast

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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Changes in the oceanic heat storage (HS) can reveal important evidences of climate variability related to ocean heat fluxes. Specifically, long-term variations in HS are a powerful indicator of climate change as HS represents the balance between the net surface energy flux and the poleward heat transported by the ocean currents. HS is estimated from sea surface height anomaly measured from the altimeters TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason 1 from 1993 to 2006. To characterize and validate the altimeter-based HS in the Atlantic, we used the data from the Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) array. Correlations and rms differences are used as statistical figures of merit to compare the HS estimates. The correlations range from 0.50 to 0.87 in the buoys located at the equator and at the southern part of the array. In that region the rms differences range between 0.40 and 0.51 x 10(9) Jm(-2). These results are encouraging and indicate that the altimeter has the precision necessary to capture the interannual trends in HS in the Atlantic. Albeit relatively small, salinity changes can also have an effect on the sea surface height anomaly. To account for this effect, NCEP/GODAS reanalysis data are used to estimate the haline contraction. To understand which dynamical processes are involved in the HS variability, the total signal is decomposed into nonpropagating basin-scale and seasonal (HS(l)) planetary waves, mesoscale eddies, and small-scale residual components. In general, HS(l) is the dominant signal in the tropical region. Results show a warming trend of HS(l) in the past 13 years almost all over the Atlantic basin with the most prominent slopes found at high latitudes. Positive interannual trends are found in the halosteric component at high latitudes of the South Atlantic and near the Labrador Sea. This could be an indication that the salinity anomaly increased in the upper layers during this period. The dynamics of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre could also be subject to low-frequency changes caused by a trend in the halosteric component on each side of the South Atlantic Current.

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The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

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The continental margin off SE South America hosts one of the world’s most energetic hydrodynamic regimes but also the second largest drainage system of the continent. Both, the ocean current system as well as the fluvial runoff are strongly controlled by the atmospheric circulation modes over the region. The distribution pattern of particular types of sediments on shelf and slope and the long-term built-up of depositional elements within the overall margin architecture are, thus, the product of both, seasonal to millennial variability as well as long-term environmental trends. This talk presents how the combination of different methodological approaches can be used to obtain a comprehensive picture of the variability of a shelf and upper-slope hydrodynamic system during Holocene times. The particular methods applied are: (a) Margin-wide stratigraphic information to elucidate the role of sea level for the oceanographic and sedimentary systems since the last glacial maximum; (b) Palaeoceanographic sediment proxies combined with palaeo-temperature indicating isotopes of bivalve shells to trace lateral shifts in the coastal oceanography (particularly of the shelf front) during the Holocene; (c) Neodymium isotopes to identify the shelf sediment transport routes resulting from the current regime; (d) Sedimentological/geochemical data to show the efficient mechanism of sand export from the shelf to the open ocean; (e) Diatom assemblages and sediment element distributions indicating palaeo-salinity and the changing marine influence to illustrate the Plata runoff history. Sea level has not only controlled the overall configuration of the shelf but also the position of the main sediment routes from the continent towards the ocean. The shelf front has shifted frequently since the last glacial times probably resulting from both, changes in the Westerly Winds intensity and in the shelf width itself. Remarkable is a southward shift of this front during the past two centuries possibly related to anthropogenic influences on the atmosphere. The oceanographic regime with its prominent hydrographic boundaries led to a clear separation of sedimentary provinces since shelf drowning. It is especially the shelf front which enhances shelf sediment export through a continuous high sand supply to the uppermost slope. Finally, the Plata River does not continuously provide sediment to the shelf but shows significant climate-related changes in discharge during the past centuries. Starting from these findings, three major fields of research should, in general, be further developed in future: (i) The immediate interaction of the hydrodynamic and sedimentary systems to close the gaps between deposit information and modern oceanographic dynamics; (ii) Material budget calculations for the marginal ocean system in terms of material fluxes, storage/retention capacities, and critical thresholds; (iii) The role of human activity on the atmospheric, oceanographic and solid material systems to unravel natural vs. anthropogenic effects and feedback mechanisms

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The coastal upwelling off Cabo Frio (SE Brazilian coast, SEBC) represents an exception to the world`s oceans since the majority of the upwelling areas are located in eastern boundary current systems. Cabo Frio represents an interesting area for investigation due to its tight physical-biological interaction and the importance of the region as a major fishery area in the SEBC. We analyzed a suite of lipid biomarkers to apportion the main sources of organic matter in surface sediments of the continental shelf off Cabo Frio, comparing the area to non-upwelling regions off the SEBC (shelf break off Cabo Frio and continental shelf off Ubatuba). During spring and summer (the upwelling period), diatoms are probably the major sources of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and C-28 sterols in surface sediments from Cabo Frio continental shelf. Sediments sampled in winter showed, in contrast, lower relative abundance of PUFAs and higher stanol/stenol ratio values. In deeper regions off Cabo Frio, elevated concentrations of alkenones, 24-methylcholest-5,22E-dien-3 beta-ol and 24-ethylcholest-5-en-3 beta-ol during the spring may be produced by prymnesiophytes or cryptophytes and cyanobacteria, respectively. In Ubatuba, the C-27 and C-28 sterols are likely derived from omnivorous salps and nanoflagellates. At non-upwelling areas, despite the increase in biomarker concentrations during spring and summer, lower concentrations of PUFAs, phytol and algal sterols than in shelf areas off Cabo Frio suggest the importance of the upwelling system to the rapid transfer of organic carbon to surface sediments. Our results suggest that spatial and temporal variability in organic matter production and deposition merits consideration for constraining the carbon budgets in the coastal region off Cabo Frio. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper provides a description of the wave climate off the Brazilian coast based on an eleven-year time series (Jan/1997-Dec/2007) obtained from the NWW3 operational model hindcast reanalysis. Information about wave climate in Brazilian waters is very scarce and mainly based on occasional short-term observations, the present analysis being the first covering such temporal and spatial scales. To define the wave climate, six sectors were defined and analyzed along the Brazilian shelf-break: South (W1), Southeast (W2), Central (W3), East (W4), Northeast (W5) and North (W6). W1, W2 and W3 wave regimes are determined by the South Atlantic High (SAH) and the passage of synoptic cold fronts; W4, W5 and W6 are controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and its meridional oscillation. The most energetic waves are from the S, generated by the strong winds associated to the passage of cold fronts, which mainly affect the southern region. Wave power presents a decrease in energy levels from south to north, with its annual variation showing that the winter months are the most energetic in W1 to W4, while in W5 and W6 the most energetic conditions occur during the austral summer. The information presented here provides boundary conditions for studies related to coastal processes, fundamental for a better understanding of the Brazilian coastal zone.

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In this paper we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to investigate the impact of the interruption of Agulhas leakage of Indian ocean water on the tropical Atlantic, a region where strong coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions occur. The effect of a shut down of leakage of Indian ocean water is isolated from the effect of a collapse of the MOC. In our experiments, the ocean model is forced with boundary conditions in the southeastern corner of the domain that correspond to no interocean exchange of Indian ocean water into the Atlantic. The southern boundary condition is taken from the Levitus data and ensures an MOC in the Atlantic. Within this configuration, instead of warm and salty Indian ocean water temperature (cold) and salinity (fresh) anomalies of southern ocean origin propagate into the South Atlantic and eventually reach the equatorial region, mainly in the thermocline. This set up mimics the closure of the ""warm water path"" in favor of the ""cold water path"". As part of the atmospheric response, there is a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The changes in trade winds lead to reduced Ekman pumping in the equatorial region. This leads to a freshening and warming of the surface waters along the equator. Especially in the Cold Tongue region, the cold and fresh subsurface anomalies do not reach the surface due to the reduced upwelling. The anomaly signals are transported by the equatorial undercurrent and spread away from the equator within the thermocline. Part of the anomaly eventually reaches the Tropical North Atlantic, where it affects the Guinea Dome. Surprisingly, the main effect at the surface is small on the equator and relatively large at the Guinea Dome. In the atmosphere, the northward shift of the ITCZ is associated with a band of negative precipitation anomalies and higher salinities over the Tropical South Atlantic. An important implication of these results is that the modified water characteristics due to a shut down of the Agulhas leakage remain largely unaffected when crossing the equatorial Atlantic and therefore can affect the deepwater formation in the North Atlantic. This supports the hypothesis that the Agulhas leakage is an important source region for climate change and decadal variability of the Atlantic.

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The response of the Sao Paulo Continental Shelf (SPCS) to synoptic wind forcing has been analyzed. Two different methods are used for this purpose, one based on hydrographic data, bottom topography, and geographical characteristics, and a second on analyzing currentmeter data directly and using empirical orthogonal functions. Both methods show similar results for an essentially barotropic shelf. The SPCS response in the subinertial frequency band appears to be trapped on the continental shelf. Numerical experiments have also been carried out showing results that qualitatively agree with the observations, including the velocity component parallel to the coastline.

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We examine Weddell Sea deep water mass distributions with respect to the results from three different model runs using the oceanic component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM). One run is inter-annually forced by corrected NCAR/NCEP fluxes, while the other two are forced with the annual cycle obtained from the same climatology. One of the latter runs includes an interactive sea-ice model. Optimum Multiparameter analysis is applied to separate the deep water masses in the Greenwich Meridian section (into the Weddell Sea only) to measure the degree of realism obtained in the simulations. First, we describe the distribution of the simulated deep water masses using observed water type indices. Since the observed indices do not provide an acceptable representation of the Weddell Sea deep water masses as expected, they are specifically adjusted for each simulation. Differences among the water masses` representations in the three simulations are quantified through their root-mean-square differences. Results point out the need for better representation (and inclusion) of ice-related processes in order to improve the oceanic characteristics and variability of dense Southern Ocean water masses in the outputs of the NCAR-CCSM model, and probably in other ocean and climate models.

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Deep Chlorophyll Maximum (DCM) modifies the upper ocean heat capture distribution and thus impacts water column temperature and stratification, as well as biogeochemical processes. This energetical role of the DCM is assessed using a 1 m-resolution 1D physical-biogeochemical model of the upper ocean, using climatological forcing conditions of the Guinea Dome (GD). This zone has been chosen among others because a strong and shallow DCM is present all year round. The results show that the DCM warms the seasonal thermocline by +2 degrees C in September/October and causes an increase of heat transfer from below into the mixed layer (ML) by vertical diffusion and entrainment, leading to a ML warming of about 0.3 degrees C in October. In the permanent thermocline, temperature decreases by up to 2 degrees C. The result is a stratification increase of the water column by 0.3 degrees C m(-1) which improves the thermocline realism when compared with observations. At the same time, the heating associated with the DCM is responsible for an increase of nitrate (+300%, 0.024 mu M), chlorophyll (+50%, 0.02 mu g l(-1)) and primary production (+45%: 10 mg C m(-2) day(-1)) in the ML during the entrainment period of October. The considered concentrations are small but this mechanism could be potentially important to give a better explanation of why there is a significant amount of nitrate in the ML. The mechanisms associated with the DCM presence, no matter which temperature or biogeochemical tracers are concerned, are likely to occur in a wide range of tropical or subpolar regions; in these zones a pronounced DCM is present at least episodically at shallow or moderate depths. These results can be generalized to other thermal dome regions where relatively similar physical and biogeochemical structures are encountered. After testing different vertical resolutions (10 m, 5 m, 2.5 m, 1 m and 0.5 m), we show that using at least a 1 to vertical resolution model is mandatory to assess the energetical importance of the DCM.

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Submesoscale activity over the Argentinian shelf is investigated by means of high resolution primitive equation numerical solutions. These reveal energetic turbulent activity (visually similar to the one occasionally seen in satellite images) at scales O(5 km) in fall and winter that is linked to mixed layer baroclinic instability. The air-sea heat flux responsible for (i) deepening the upper ocean boundary layer (at these seasons) and (ii) maintaining a cross-shelf background density gradient is the key environmental parameter controlling submesoscale activity. Implications of submesoscale turbulence are investigated. Its mixing efficiency estimated by computing a diffusivity coefficient is above 30 m(2) s(-1) away from the shallowest regions. Aggregation of surface buoyant material by submesoscale currents occurs within hours and is presumably important to the ecosystem.

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Topex/Poseidon sea surface height anomalies during 1993-2002 are decomposed using 2-D finite impulse response filters which showed biannual Rossby waves (BRWs) in the equatorial Indian Ocean (peak at 1.5 degrees S) and in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (peak at 10.5 degrees S) during Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years. Anomalous downwelling BRWs in the equatorial Indian Ocean triggered by the wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping near the eastern boundary started propagating westward from the eastern boundary in July/August 1993 and 1996, i.e., more than one year prior to the formation of the IOD events of 1994 and 1997 respectively. These strong downwelling signals reach the western equatorial Indian Ocean during the peak dipole time.

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This study uses the global Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Jason-1 altimeters` time series to estimate the 13-yr trend in sea surface height anomaly. These trends are estimated at each grid point by two methods: one fits a straight line to the time series and the other is based on the difference between the average height between the two halves of the time series. In both cases the trend shows large regional variability, mostly where the intense western boundary currents turn. The authors hypothesize that the regional variability of the sea surface height trends leads to changes in the local geostrophic transport. This in turn affects the instability-related processes that generate mesoscale eddies and enhances the Rossby wave signals. This hypothesis is verified by estimates of the trend of the amplitude of the filtered sea surface height anomaly that contains the spectral bands associated with Rossby waves and mesoscale eddies. The authors found predominantly positive tendency in the amplitude of Rossby waves and eddies, which suggests that, on average, these events are becoming more energetic. In some regions, the variation in amplitude over 13 yr is comparable to the standard deviation of the data and is statistically significant according to both methods employed in this study. It is plausible that in this case, the energy is transferred from the mean currents to the waves and eddies through barotropic and baroclinic instability processes that are more pronounced in the western boundary current extension regions. If these heat storage patterns and trends are confirmed on longer time series, then it will be justified to argue that the warming trend of the last century provides the energy that amplifies both Rossby waves and mesoscale eddies.

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Several reefs of the world have undergone changes in community due to sedimentation processes. It has been suggested that Abrolhos reefs (Brazil/South-West Atlantic) are subjected to a steady coastal influence, although there is still little information regarding this assumption. In this work, we have analyzed a set of environmental parameters concerning sedimentation characteristics at the Abrolhos reefs, near 18 degrees S-39 degrees W. The analysis included remote sensing, model and in situ data to provide a three-dimensional quantitative description of the processes that influence sediment apportionment to the reefs. Mineralogy and natural radioactivity of sediment trapped at three reef sites in a transect perpendicular to the coastline were used in conjunction with numerical weather prediction model and remote sensing databases. We have observed an increase of around 100% of sediment flux during the summer compared to the winter season. A comparison of regional rainfall regime, sediment plume dynamics and a year-around monitoring of polar fronts trajectories and surface wind showed that the wind-driven resedimentation due to polar front activity is the major contributor to the intensification of sedimentation processes at the offshore area of Abrolhos reefs, despite river runoff from mainland. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The Community Climate System Model version 3 is used to analyse changes in water mass subduction rates in the South Atlantic Ocean over the 21st century. The model results are first compared to observations over 1950-2000, and shown to be rather good. The subduction rates do not change significantly over the 21st century, but the densities at which water masses form become significantly lighter. The strong westerly winds in this region do not change much, which suggests small changes to the rate at which the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean takes up heat and carbon dioxide over the 21st century.

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The influence of the meridional overturning circulation on tropical Atlantic climate and variability has been investigated using the atmosphere-ocean coupled model Speedy-MICOM (Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model). In the ocean model MICOM the strength of the meridional overturning cell can be regulated by specifying the lateral boundary conditions. In case of a collapse of the basinwide meridional overturning cell the SST response in the Atlantic is characterized by a dipole with a cooling in the North Atlantic and a warming in the tropical and South Atlantic. The cooling in the North Atlantic is due to the decrease in the strength of the western boundary currents, which reduces the northward advection of heat. The warming in the tropical Atlantic is caused by a reduced ventilation of water originating from the South Atlantic. This effect is most prominent in the eastern tropical Atlantic during boreal summer when the mixed layer attains its minimum depth. As a consequence the seasonal cycle as well as the interannual variability in SST is reduced. The characteristics of the cold tongue mode are changed: the variability in the eastern equatorial region is strongly reduced and the largest variability is now in the Benguela, Angola region. Because of the deepening of the equatorial thermocline, variations in the thermocline depth in the eastern tropical Atlantic no longer significantly affect the mixed layer temperature. The gradient mode remains unaltered. The warming of the tropical Atlantic enhances and shifts the Hadley circulation. Together with the cooling in the North Atlantic, this increases the strength of the subtropical jet and the baroclinicity over the North Atlantic.