Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

Cointegration: Bayesian Significance Test

To estimate causal relationships, time series econometricians must be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule (1926). To deal with this problem, one can work either with differenced series or multivariate models: VAR (VEC or VECM) models. These models usually include at least one cointegration relation. Although the Bayesian literature on VAR/VEC is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. (1999) highlighted that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results". The present article applies the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), especially designed to deal with sharp hypotheses, to cointegration rank selection tests in VECM time series models. It shows the FBST implementation using both simulated and available (in the literature) data sets. As illustration, standard non informative priors are used.

Simcluster: clustering enumeration gene expression data on the simplex space

Abstract Background Transcript enumeration methods such as SAGE, MPSS, and sequencing-by-synthesis EST "digital northern", are important high-throughput techniques for digital gene expression measurement. As other counting or voting processes, these measurements constitute compositional data exhibiting properties particular to the simplex space where the summation of the components is constrained. These properties are not present on regular Euclidean spaces, on which hybridization-based microarray data is often modeled. Therefore, pattern recognition methods commonly used for microarray data analysis may be non-informative for the data generated by transcript enumeration techniques since they ignore certain fundamental properties of this space. Results Here we present a software tool, Simcluster, designed to perform clustering analysis for data on the simplex space. We present Simcluster as a stand-alone command-line C package and as a user-friendly on-line tool. Both versions are available at: http://xerad.systemsbiology.net/simcluster. Conclusion Simcluster is designed in accordance with a well-established mathematical framework for compositional data analysis, which provides principled procedures for dealing with the simplex space, and is thus applicable in a number of contexts, including enumeration-based gene expression data.

Absence of placeholders abolishes exogenous attention effect in a peripheral cueing procedure

Most studies of exogenous visuospatial attention use placeholders indicating the regions where the stimuli appear on the screen. Preliminary results from our laboratory provided evidence that the attentional effect is more frequently observed when placeholders are used in these experimental procedures. Four experiments were carried out. Experiment 1 aimed at confirming the finding that the attentional effect of a spatially non-informative cue (S1) observed in the presence of placeholders disappears in their absence. The results confirmed this finding. Experiments 2, 3, and 4 examined several possible processes that could explain this finding. Experiment 2 investigated if the contribution of a faster disengagement of attention from the cued location or a stronger forward masking could explain the absence of attentional effect when no placeholders were used. Experiment 3 investigated if increased difficulty in discrimination of the target (S2) from S1 would favor the appearance of the attentional effect in the absence of placeholders. Experiment 4 investigated if an insufficient focusing of attention towards the cued location could explain the absence of attentional effect when no placeholders were used. The results of the three experiments indicated that placeholders act by reducing the discriminability of the S2. This would presumably lead to the adoption of an attentional set that favors the mobilization of attention by the S1

Prior history of sexually transmitted diseases in women living with AIDS in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objectives: To describe the epidemiological profile, risk behaviors, and the prior history of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in women living with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Methods: Cross-sectional study, performed at the Centro de Referencia e Treinamento em DST/AIDS of Sao Paulo. The social, demographic, behavioral, and clinical data such as age, schooling, marital status, age at first sexual intercourse, number of sexual partners, parity, use of drugs, time of HIV diagnosis, CD4 count, and viral load determination were abstracted from the medical records of women living with AIDS who had gynecological consultation scheduled in the period from June 2008 to May 2009. Results: Out of 710 women who were scheduled to a gynecological consultation during the period of the study, 598 were included. Previous STD was documented for 364 (60.9%; 95% CI: 56.9%-64.8%) women. The associated factors with previous STDs and their respective risks were: human development index (HDI) <0.50 (ORaj = 5.5; 95% CI: 2.8-11.0); non-white race (ORaj = 5.2; 95% CI: 2.5-11.0); first sexual intercourse at or before 15 years of age (ORaj = 4.4; 95% CI: 2.3-8.3); HIV infection follow-up time of nine years or more (ORaj = 4.2; 95% CI: 2.3-7.8)]; number of sexual partners during the entire life between three and five partners (ORaj = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.1-4.6), and six or more sexual partners (ORaj = 3.9; 95% CI: 1.9-8.0%); being a sex worker (ORaj = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.1-3.1). Conclusions: A high prevalence of a prior history of STDs in the studied population was found. It is essential to find better ways to access HIV infection prevention, so that effective interventions can be more widely implemented. (C) 2012 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Influence of prior 810-nm-diode intracanal laser irradiation on hydrophilic resin-based sealer obturation

Dentin wall structural changes caused by 810-nm-diode laser irradiation can influence the sealing ability of endodontic sealers. The objective of this study was to evaluate the apical leakage of AH Plus and RealSeal resin-based sealers with and without prior diode laser irradiation. Fifty-two single-rooted mandibular premolars were prepared and divided into 4 groups, according to the endodontic sealer used and the use or non-use of laser irradiation. The protocol for laser irradiation was 2.5W, continuous wave in scanning mode, with 4 exposures per tooth. After sample preparation, apical leakage of 50% ammoniacal silver nitrate impregnation was analyzed. When the teeth were not exposed to irradiation, the Real Seal sealer achieved the highest scores, showing the least leakage, with significant differences at the 5% level (Kruskal-Wallis test, p = 0.0004), compared with AH Plus. When the teeth were exposed to the 810-nm-diode laser irradiation, the sealing ability of AH Plus sealer was improved (p = 0282). In the Real Seal groups, the intracanal laser irradiation did not interfere with the leakage index, showing similar results in the GRS and GRSd groups (p = 0.1009).

Cannabidiol, a non-psychotropic plant-derived cannabinoid, decreases inflammation in a murine model of acute lung injury: Role for the adenosine A(2A) receptor

Acute lung injury is an inflammatory condition for which treatment is mainly supportive because effective therapies have not been developed. Cannabidiol, a non-psychotropic cannabinoid component of marijuana (Cannabis sativa), has potent immunosuppressive and anti-inflammatory properties. Therefore, we investigated the possible anti-inflammatory effect of cannabidiol in a murine model of acute lung injury. Analysis of total inflammatory cells and differential in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was used to characterize leukocyte migration into the lungs; myeloperoxidase activity of lung tissue and albumin concentration in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid were analyzed by colorimetric assays; cytokine/chemokine production in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was also analyzed by Cytometric Bead Arrays and Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). A single dose of cannabidiol (20 mg/kg) administered prior to the induction of LPS (lipopolysaccharide)-induced acute lung injury decreases leukocyte (specifically neutrophil) migration into the lungs, albumin concentration in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, myeloperoxidase activity in the lung tissue, and production of pro-inflammatory cytokines (TNF and IL-6) and chemokines (MCP-1 and MIP-2) 1, 2, and 4 days after the induction of LPS-induced acute lung injury. Additionally, adenosine A(2A) receptor is involved in the anti-inflammatory effects of cannabidiol on LPS-induced acute lung injury because ZM241385 (4-(2[7-Amino-2-(2-furyl)[1,2,4] triazolo[2,3-a][1,3,5]triazin-5-ylamino]ethyl) phenol) (a highly selective antagonist of adenosine A(2A) receptor) abrogated all of the anti-inflammatory effects of cannabidiol previously described. Thus, we show that cannabidiol has anti-inflammatory effects in a murine model of acute lung injury and that this effect is most likely associated with an increase in the extracellular adenosine offer and signaling through adenosine A(2A) receptor. (C) 2012 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

The implementation of the Medical Regulation Office and Mobile Emergency Attendance System and its impact on the gravity profile of non-traumatic afflictions treated in a University Hospital: a research study

Abstract Background The public health system of Brazil is structured by a network of increasing complexity, but the low resolution of emergency care at pre-hospital units and the lack of organization of patient flow overloaded the hospitals, mainly the ones of higher complexity. The knowledge of this phenomenon induced Ribeirão Preto to implement the Medical Regulation Office and the Mobile Emergency Attendance System. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of these services on the gravity profile of non-traumatic afflictions in a University Hospital. Methods The study conducted a retrospective analysis of the medical records of 906 patients older than 13 years of age who entered the Emergency Care Unit of the Hospital of the University of São Paulo School of Medicine at Ribeirão Preto. All presented acute non-traumatic afflictions and were admitted to the Internal Medicine, Surgery or Neurology Departments during two study periods: May 1996 (prior to) and May 2001 (after the implementation of the Medical Regulation Office and Mobile Emergency Attendance System). Demographics and mortality risk levels calculated by Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were determined. Results From 1996 to 2001, the mean age increased from 49 ± 0.9 to 52 ± 0.9 (P = 0.021), as did the percentage of co-morbidities, from 66.6 to 77.0 (P = 0.0001), the number of in-hospital complications from 260 to 284 (P = 0.0001), the mean calculated APACHE II mortality risk increased from 12.0 ± 0.5 to 14.8 ± 0.6 (P = 0.0008) and mortality rate from 6.1 to 12.2 (P = 0.002). The differences were more significant for patients admitted to the Internal Medicine Department. Conclusion The implementation of the Medical Regulation and Mobile Emergency Attendance System contributed to directing patients with higher gravity scores to the Emergency Care Unit, demonstrating the potential of these services for hierarchical structuring of pre-hospital networks and referrals.

Prior history of sexually transmitted diseases in women living with AIDS in São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVES: To describe the epidemiological profile, risk behaviors, and the prior history of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in women living with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). METHODS: Cross-sectional study, performed at the Centro de Referência e Treinamento em DST/AIDS of São Paulo. The social, demographic, behavioral, and clinical data such as age, schooling, marital status, age at first sexual intercourse, number of sexual partners, parity, use of drugs, time of HIV diagnosis, CD4 count, and viral load determination were abstracted from the medical records of women living with AIDS who had gynecological consultation scheduled in the period from June 2008 to May 2009. RESULTS: Out of 710 women who were scheduled to a gynecological consultation during the period of the study, 598 were included. Previous STD was documented for 364 (60.9%; 95% CI: 56.9%-64.8%) women. The associated factors with previous STDs and their respective risks were: human development index (HDI) < 0.50 (ORaj = 5.5; 95% CI: 2.8-11.0); non-white race (ORaj = 5.2; 95% CI: 2.5-11.0); first sexual intercourse at or before 15 years of age (ORaj = 4.4; 95% CI: 2.3-8.3); HIV infection follow-up time of nine years or more (ORaj = 4.2; 95% CI: 2.3-7.8)]; number of sexual partners during the entire life between three and five partners (ORaj = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.1-4.6), and six or more sexual partners (ORaj = 3.9; 95% CI: 1.9-8.0%); being a sex worker (ORaj = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.1-3.1). CONCLUSIONS: A high prevalence of a prior history of STDs in the studied population was found. It is essential to find better ways to access HIV infection prevention, so that effective interventions can be more widely implemented.

Resurrection of the genus Licornia for Scrupocellaria jolloisii (Bryozoa) and related species, with documentation of L. jolloisii as a non-indigenous species in the western Atlantic

Recent studies of the large cheilostome bryozoan genus Scrupocellaria have shown a greater degree of taxonomically informative morphological variation in zooids, opesia, and polymorphic structures than previously recognized. Only one subgenus has been named within the genus, Retiscrupocellaria d'Hondt, 1988, erected for Scrupocellaria jolloisii. In this work we further analyse S. jolloisii and its related species, resurrecting an earlier genus name, Licornia van Beneden, 1850 for Licornia jolloisii, and nine relatives, L. annectens, L. cervicornis, L. cyclostoma, L. diadema, L. ferox, L. gaspari, L. longispinosa, L. macropora, and L. prolata. Licornia jolloisii was originally described from the Red Sea, and most species of the genus occur in the Indo-Pacific region. The species, however, has now been found in the Western Atlantic, in the Florida Keys, US, and in Bahia de Todos Santos, Brazil.