Longitudinal outcomes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections as competing-risks events following cervical HPV test at baseline visit in the *NIS-LAMS** cohort

Background: The complex natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections following a single HPV test can be modeled as competing-risks events (i.e., no-, transient- or persistent infection) in a longitudinal setting. The covariates associated with these compet ng events have not been previously assessed using competing-risks regression models. Objectives: To gain further insights in the outcomes of cervical HPV infections, we used univariate- and multivariate competing-risks regression models to assess the covariaies associated with these competing events. Study Design and Methods: Covariates associated with three competing outcomes (no-, transient- or persistent HR-HPV infection) were analysed in a sub-cohort of 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS Study (n = 12,114). Results: In multivariate competing-risks models (with two other outcomes as competing events), permanently HR-HPV negative outcome was significantly predicted only by the clearance of ASCUS+Pap during FU, while three independent covariates predicted transient HR-HPV infections: i) number of recent (< 12 months) sexual partners (risk increased), ii) previous Pap screening history (protective), and history of previous CIN (increased risk). The two most powerful predictors of persistent HR-HPV infections were persistent ASCUS+Pap (risk increased), and previous Pap screening history (protective). In pair-wise comparisons, number of recent sexual partners and previous CIN history increase the probability of transient HR-HPV infection against the HR-HPV negative competing event, while previous Pap screening history is protective. Persistent ASCUS+Pap during FU and no previous Pap screening history are significantly associated with the persistent HR-HPV outcome (compared both with i) always negative, and ii) transient events), whereas multiparity is protective. Conclusions: Different covariates are associated with the three main outcomes of cervical HPV infections. The most significant covariates of each competing events are probably distinct enough to enable constructing of a risk-profile for each main outcome.

Risk factors for magnetic resonance imaging-detected patellofemoral and tibiofemoral cartilage loss during a six-month period: The Joints On Glucosamine study

Objective To assess several baseline risk factors that may predict patellofemoral and tibiofemoral cartilage loss during a 6-month period. Methods For 177 subjects with chronic knee pain, 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of both knees was performed at baseline and followup. Knees were semiquantitatively assessed, evaluating cartilage morphology, subchondral bone marrow lesions, meniscal morphology/extrusion, synovitis, and effusion. Age, sex, and body mass index (BMI), bone marrow lesions, meniscal damage/extrusion, synovitis, effusion, and prevalent cartilage damage in the same subregion were evaluated as possible risk factors for cartilage loss. Logistic regression models were applied to predict cartilage loss. Models were adjusted for age, sex, treatment, and BMI. Results Seventy-nine subregions (1.6%) showed incident or worsening cartilage damage at followup. None of the demographic risk factors was predictive of future cartilage loss. Predictors of patellofemoral cartilage loss were effusion, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 3.5 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.39.4), and prevalent cartilage damage in the same subregion with an adjusted OR of 4.3 (95% CI 1.314.1). Risk factors for tibiofemoral cartilage loss were baseline meniscal extrusion (adjusted OR 3.6 [95% CI 1.310.1]), prevalent bone marrow lesions (adjusted OR 4.7 [95% CI 1.119.5]), and prevalent cartilage damage (adjusted OR 15.3 [95% CI 4.947.4]). Conclusion Cartilage loss over 6 months is rare, but may be detected semiquantitatively by 3T MRI and is most commonly observed in knees with Kellgren/Lawrence grade 3. Predictors of patellofemoral cartilage loss were effusion and prevalent cartilage damage in the same subregion. Predictors of tibiofemoral cartilage loss were prevalent cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions, and meniscal extrusion.

Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of Eisenia andrei (Annelida, Oligochaeta) to a commercial formulation of abamectin in avoidance tests with artificial substrate and natural soil under tropical conditions

Obtaining ecotoxicological data on pesticides in tropical regions is imperative for performing more realistic risk analysis, and avoidance tests have been proposed as a useful, fast and cost-effective tool. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the avoidance behavior of Eisenia andrei to a formulated product, Vertimec(A (R)) 18 EC (a.i abamectin), in tests performed on a reference tropical artificial soil (TAS), to derive ecotoxicological data on tropical conditions, and a natural soil (NS), simulating crop field conditions. In TAS tests an adaptation of the substrate recommended by OECD and ISO protocols was used, with residues of coconut fiber as a source of organic matter. Concentrations of the pesticide on TAS test ranged from 0 to 7 mg abamectin/kg (dry weight-d.w.). In NS tests, earthworms were exposed to samples of soils sprayed in situ with: 0.9 L of Vertimec(A (R)) 18 EC/ha (RD); twice as much this dosage (2RD); and distilled water (Control), respectively, and to 2RD: control dilutions (12.5, 25, 50, 75%). All tests were performed under 25 +/- A 2A degrees C, to simulate tropical conditions, and a 12hL:12hD photoperiod. The organisms avoided contaminated TAS for an EC50,48h = 3.918 mg/kg soil d.w., LOEC = 1.75 mg/kg soil d.w. and NOEC = 0.85 mg/kg soil d.w. No significant avoidance response occurred for any NS test. Abamectin concentrations in NS were rather lower than EC50, 48h and LOEC determined in TAS tests. The results obtained contribute to overcome a lack of ecotoxicological data on pesticides under tropical conditions, but more tests with different soil invertebrates are needed to improve pesticides risk analysis.

Covariates of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are distinct for incident CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 as disclosed by competing-risks regression models

Background: In addition to the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV), several cofactors are needed in cervical carcinogenesis, but whether the HPV covariates associated with incident i) CIN1 are different from those of incident ii) CIN2 and iii) CIN3 needs further assessment. Objectives: To gain further insights into the true biological differences between CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, we assessed HPV covariates associated with incident CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3. Study Design and Methods: HPV covariates associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 were analysed in the combined cohort of the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS study (n = 12,114), using competing-risks regression models (in panel data) for baseline HR-HPV-positive women (n = 1,105), who represent a sub-cohort of all 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in these two studies. Results: Altogether, 90 (4.8%), 39 (2.1%) and 14 (1.4%) cases progressed to CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3, respectively. Among these baseline HR-HPV-positive women, the risk profiles of incident GIN I, CIN2 and CIN3 were unique in that completely different HPV covariates were associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, irrespective which categories (non-progression, CIN1, CIN2, CIN3 or all) were used as competing-risks events in univariate and multivariate models. Conclusions: These data confirm our previous analysis based on multinomial regression models implicating that distinct covariates of HR-HPV are associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3. This emphasises true biological differences between the three grades of GIN, which revisits the concept of combining CIN2 with CIN3 or with CIN1 in histological classification or used as a common end-point, e.g., in HPV vaccine trials.

Oncogenic potential diverge among human papillomavirus type 16 natural variants

We compared E6/E7 protein properties of three different HPV-16 variants: AA. E-P and E-350G. Primary human foreskin keratinocytes (PHFK) were transduced with HPV-16 E6 and E7 and evaluated for proliferation and ability to grow in soft agar. E-P infected keratinocytes presented the lowest efficiency in colony formation. AA and E-350G keratinocytes attained higher capacity for in vitro transformation. We observed similar degradation of TP53 among HPV-16 variants. Furthermore, we accessed the expression profile in early (p5) and late passage (p30) transduced cells of 84 genes commonly involved in carcinogenesis. Most differences could be attributed to HPV-16 E6/E7 expression. In particular, we detected different expression of ITGA2 and CHEK2 in keratinocytes infected with AA and AA/E-350G late passage cells, respectively, and higher expression of MAP2K1 in E-350G transduced keratinocytes. Our results indicate differences among HPV-16 variants that could explain, at least in part, differences in oncogenic potential attributed to these variants. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nuts and seed: A natural yet dangerous foreign body

Rationale and aim: This paper has the object to present the impact of nuts' and seeds' injuries withdrawing data from the Susy Safe registry, highlighting that as for other foreign bodies the main item efficiently and substantially susceptible to changes to decrease the accidents' rates is the education of adults and children, that can be shared with parents both from pediatricians and general practitioners. Indeed labeling and age related warnings have also a fundamental relevance in prevention. Methods: The present study draws its data from the Susy Safe registry. Details on injuries are entered in the Susy Safe Web-registry through a standardized case report form, that includes information regarding: children age and gender, features of the object, circumstances of injury (presence of parents and activity) and hospitalization's details (lasting, complications and removal details). Cases are prospectively collected using the Susy Safe system from 06/2005; moreover, also information regarding past consecutive cases available in each centre adhering to the project have been entered in the Susy Safe registry. Results: Nuts and seeds are one of the most common food item retrieved in foreign bodies injuries in children. In Susy Safe registry they represent the 38% in food group, and almost the 10% in general cases. Trachea, bronchi and lungs were the main location of FB's retrieval, showing an incidence of 68%. Hospitalization occurred in 83% of cases, showing the major frequency for foreign bodies located in trachea. This location was also the principal site of complications, with a frequency of 68%. There were no significant associations between these outcomes and the age class of the children. The most common complications seen (22.4%) was bronchitis, followed by pneumonia (19.7%). Adult presence was recorded as positive in 71.2% of cases, showing an association (p value 0.009) between the adult supervision and the hospitalization outcome. On the contrary there was a non significant association between adult presence and the occurrence of complications. In 80.7% of cases, the incident happened while the child was eating. Among those cases, 88.6% interested trachea, lungs and bronchi. Conclusions: Food-related aspiration injuries are common events for young children, particularly under 4 years of age, and may lead to severe complication. There is a need to study in more depth specific characteristics of foreign bodies associated with increased hazard, such as size, shape, hardness or firmness, lubricity, pliability and elasticity, in order to better identify risky foods, and more precisely described the pathogenetic pathway. Parents are not adequately conscious and aware toward this risk; therefore, the number and severity of the injuries could be reduced by educating parents and children. Information about food safety should be included in all visits to pediatricians in order to make parents able to understand, select, and identify key characteristics of hazardous foods and better control the hazard level of various foods. Finally, preventive measures including warning labels on high-risk foods could be implemented. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.