12 resultados para Modelos espaço-temporal

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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The objective of this work was to assess the spatial and temporal variability of sugarcane yield efficiency and yield gap in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, throughout 16 growing seasons, considering climate and soil as main effects, and socioeconomic factors as complementary. An empirical model was used to assess potential and attainable yields, using climate data series from 37 weather stations. Soil effects were analyzed using the concept of production environments associated with a soil aptitude map for sugarcane. Crop yield efficiency increased from 0.42 to 0.58 in the analyzed period (1990/1991 to 2005/2006 crop seasons), and yield gap consequently decreased from 58 to 42%. Climatic factors explained 43% of the variability of sugarcane yield efficiency, in the following order of importance: solar radiation, water deficit, maximum air temperature, precipitation, and minimum air temperature. Soil explained 15% of the variability, considering the average of all seasons. There was a change in the correlation pattern of climate and soil with yield efficiency after the 2001/2002 season, probably due to the crop expansion to the west of the state during the subsequent period. Socioeconomic, biotic and crop management factors together explain 42% of sugarcane yield efficiency in the state of São Paulo.

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AIM: The main goal of this research was to investigate the influence of the hydrological pulses on the space-temporal dynamics of physical and chemical variables in a wetland adjacent to Jacupiranguinha River (São Paulo, Brazil); METHODS: Eleven sampling points were distributed among the wetland, a tributary by its left side and the adjacent river. Four samplings were carried out, covering the rainy and the dry periods. Measures of pH, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity and redox potential were taken in regular intervals of the water column using a multiparametric probe. Water samples were collected for the nitrogen and total phosphorus analysis, as well as their dissolved fractions (dissolved inorganic phosphorus, total dissolved phosphorus, ammoniacal nitrogen and nitrate). Total alkalinity and suspended solids were also quantified; RESULTS: The Multivariate Analysis of Variance showed the influence of the seasonality on the variability of the investigated variables, while the Principal Component Analysis gave rise in two statistical significant axes, which delimited two groups representative of the rainy and dry periods. Hydrological pulses from Jacupiranguinha River, besides contributing to the inputs of nutrients and sediments during the period of connectivity, accounted for the decrease in spatial gradients in the wetland. This "homogenization effect" was evidenced by the Cluster Analysis. The research also showed an industrial raw effluent as the main point source of phosphorus to the Jacupiranguinha River and, indirectly, to the wetland; CONCLUSIONS: Therefore, considering the scarcity of information about the wetlands in the study area, this research, besides contributing to the understanding of the influence of hydrological pulses on the investigated environmental variables, showed the need for adoption of conservation policies of these ecosystems face the increase anthropic pressures that they have been submitted, which may result in lack of their ecological, social and economic functions.

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A space-time analysis of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in humans in the city of Bauru, Sao Paulo State, Brazil was carried out based on 239 cases diagnosed between June 2003 and October 2008. Spatial analysis of the disease showed that cases occurred especially in the city's urban areas. AVL annual incidence rates were calculated, demonstrating that the highest rate occurred in 2006 (19.55/100,000 inhabitants). This finding was confirmed by the time series analysis, which also showed a positive tendency over the period analyzed. The present study allows us to conclude that the disease was clustered in the Southwest side of the city in 2006, suggesting that this area may require special attention with regard to control and prevention measures.

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This study evaluated the spatio-temporal distribution, reproduction and diet of the catfishes Genidens genidens, G. barbus and Aspistor luniscutis in Caraguatatuba Bay. Their sizes were recorded and the sex and reproductive stage identified. The abundance was compared between areas (South and North) and among months (August 2003 - October 2004). The species had different spatial distributions, allowing them to coexist. The temporal distribution reflected their tendencies to migrate in the reproductive period, as evidenced by the dominance of small immature individuals in the bay. G. genidens tended to reproduce in winter, and A. luniscutis in spring. The diet of G. genidens consisted of crustaceans, mollusks (shells), fish scales, ostracods, and bivalve siphons. G. barbus consumed a high proportion of mysids, followed by fish (bones and scales). For A. luniscutis, the diet was based on fish scales and crustaceans. High quantities of particulate organic matter were observed in the diet of all three species, as previously known for estuarine catfishes. The consumption of fish scales may reflect a lepidophagic habit. A small overlap was observed among the diets, reflecting differences in their environments as well as in the proportions of each item ingested.

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The Sciaenids have among the highest species richness, numerical abundance and biomass of any family of fishes along the Brazilian coast. The aim of this study was to analyze the composition and spatial and temporal distribution of as well as the influence of temperature, salinity and depth on the sciaenid assemblage of Santos Bay. A total of 29,306 individuals belonging to 13 genera and 21 species were captured, between November 2004 and December 2005, with Stellifer rastrifer representing 70.4% of the total composition. Highest abundance and biomass occurred on the east side of the bay, and the highest species richness occurred near the mouth of the Santos Channel, which was also the site with least similarity to the other sites. Highest abundances occurred in April 2005 and lowest in September 2005. Key environmental factors influencing distribution of sciaenids were depth and temperature.

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Ecosystems may reflect environmental changes in many respects, from the debilitation of individuals to alterations in community composition. Equally, population parameters may provide reliable indications of environmental changes. Members of the sciaenid fish genus Stellifer are usually very abundant where they occur, often with two or more species living in sympatry. Here, the population dynamics of three Stellifer species from southeastern Brazil were assessed. Sampling was carried out in shallow marine areas of Caraguatatuba Bay, from August 2003 to October 2004. The species evaluated were Stellifer rastrifer (n=3183), S. brasiliensis (n=357) and S. stellifer (n=116). The area under greater continental influence tended to support more, but smaller individuals. Size variations over time were similar among species and negatively correlated with Krel, which showed smooth fluctuations. The general length-frequency distribution was concentrated between 6.0 and 9.0 cm, and the great majority of females did not present mature gonads during the sampling period. The findings support the existence of a stratification by size for these species, indicating that the area is essential for the development of younger fish. Failure to consider these characteristics for the management of similar areas may have serious implications for these environments.

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This study evaluated the spatio-temporal distribution, population biology and diet of Menticirrhus americanus in Caraguatatuba Bay. Samples were taken monthly between August 2003 and October 2004, by trawling in two previously selected areas. The northern area is more exposed to wave activity and is influenced by a river, functioning as a small estuary. In contrast, the southern area is relatively sheltered from wave energy and influenced to a lesser degree by smaller rivers. The fishes' length was measured, and the sex and gonadal stage macroscopically identified. The abundance of this species was compared between areas and among months. The diet was identified and quantified. M. americanus occurred in equal proportions in the two study areas, being most abundant in April 2004, followed by December 2003 and January 2004. The population was dominated by small immature individuals. The few individuals in maturation or mature that were captured showed no seasonal pattern of distribution. This species had a varied diet, feeding on worms (nemerteans, sipunculans and echiurans), mollusks (bivalves and cephalopods), polychaetes, crustaceans and fish. The presence of intact nematodes in the intestine suggests that these are parasites. The results demonstrated that M. americanus has a homogeneous spatial and temporal distribution in Caraguatatuba Bay, being uniformly distributed between the south and north areas as well as across the months. This species can be considered a carnivorous predator, showing a preference for consuming benthic sandy-beach species such as glycerids and other polychaetes, crustaceans, and bivalve siphons.

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Neste trabalho, avaliou-se os efeitos de fatores ambientais na sobrevivência e crescimento inicial de Ocotea pulchella (Nees) Mez numa floresta de restinga. Os ensaios consistiram do plantio de mudas classificadas em dois grupos de idade (plântulas e juvenis) em diferentes áreas selecionadas quanto à cobertura vegetal (clareiras ou sub-bosque) e umidade do solo (secos e úmidos). As plantas de ambas as idades apresentaram a maior taxa de mortalidade no sub-bosque úmido, onde se observou os valores mais baixos de luz fotossinteticamente ativa e fertilidade do solo. A sobrevivência de plântulas correlacionou-se positivamente ao crescimento, que por sua vez, foi favorecido em clareiras, sugerindo uma dependência da espécie em relação a ambientes mais iluminados, embora essa possa ocupar o sub-bosque em fisionomias mais abertas como as restingas. Em juvenis, a sobrevivência foi relacionada principalmente aos fatores edáficos; o crescimento em altura foi muito baixo, não sendo constatado incremento significativo de área foliar nem de matéria seca em nenhum dos ambientes, o que pode estar relacionado ao caráter oligotrófico do solo. Os juvenis em sub-bosque de solo úmido apresentaram ao final do experimento os menores valores de altura, área foliar, razão de área foliar, razão de massa foliar e taxa de assimilação líquida, sugerindo que baixas irradiâncias associadas a solos saturados e quimicamente pobres podem restringir o recrutamento da espécie no local estudado. Todavia, o comportamento de certa forma generalista para as condições de luz e umidade do solo, indica uma alta capacidade de O. pulchella em colonizar distintos micro-ambientes da restinga, onde se observa uma grande variação espaço-temporal de fatores ambientais.

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Objetivo: Caracterizar os desempenhos neuropsicológicos de um caso com sequência de Robin. Método: Participou um sujeito com 11 anos e 11 meses, sexo masculino, com Sequência de Robin e fissura completa de palato e queixa de baixo aproveitamento acadêmico. Foram utilizados: Matrizes Progressivas Coloridas, Teste Gestaltico Bender, Escala de Inteligência para Crianças - WISC III; Wisconsin Card Sorting Test-WCST, Teste de Atenção Visual-Tavis-4. Resultados: O raciocínio espaço-temporal lógico apresentou-se na média para a idade. A análise das funções cognitivas para a aprendizagem revelou desempenhos com classificação na média em escalas verbal (QIV=112), execução (QIE=99) e global (QIT=106). No entanto, apresentou desempenhos inferiores em tarefas com sobrecarga, que exigiam atenção sustentada, agilidade e flexibilidade mental, memória de trabalho visual e gerenciamento de estratégias para resolução de problemas. O desempenho em provas perceptivas visiomotoras foi inferior ao esperado, compatível a oito anos de idade, com evidentes dificuldades na construção de ângulos, organização espacial e posição relativa. As habilidades de atenção mostraram-se preservadas em provas de sustentadas e alternadas; naquelas envolvendo a atenção seletiva, cujo estímulo exigiu capacidade de rastreamento e velocidade da resposta, o desempenho foi significativamente inferior ao esperado para a idade. Conclusão: Apesar do nível intelectual satisfatório, a avaliação evidenciou déficits neuropsicológicos importantes interferentes na aprendizagem, tais como, a atenção, memória de trabalho, percepção visomotora e gerenciamento executivo. Estes achados justificam os prejuízos do sujeito em atividades acadêmicas que envolvem as habilidades de leitura, escrita e aritmética.

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Durante o verão austral, diversas regiões do Brasil são afetadas por precipitação intensa, geralmente associada à Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS). O objetivo geral deste trabalho foi investigar a influência da resolução espacial e temporal dos dados de temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) na simulação da precipitação associada à ZCAS. Foram realizadas simulações com o modelo BRAMS (Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) para dois eventos de ZCAS, ocorridos em 1998 (El Niño) e 1999 (La Niña). A quantidade de precipitação acumulada na parte oceânica da ZCAS foi maior nos experimentos com TSM mais quente. Índices estatísticos foram utilizados para verificação do desempenho do modelo na simulação de precipitação nas regiões que compõem a ZCAS (oceânica, costeira e amazônica), com diferentes dados de TSM. A resolução espaço-temporal dos dados de TSM influencia de forma pouco significativa na representação da ZCAS pelo modelo BRAMS. O modelo é mais eficiente em identificar a ocorrência/não ocorrência de chuva do que em localizar núcleos mais intensos e seu desempenho foi superior (inferior) na região amazônica (oceânica) da ZCAS.

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INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

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A armazenagem de água no solo é muito variável no tempo e no espaço devido à influência de vários fatores ambientais e topográficos. Objetivou-se neste estudo: quantificar a armazenagem de água no solo; avaliar sua estabilidade temporal e sua variabilidade espacial em um local próximo e outro distante do sistema radicular numa sucessão feijão/aveia-preta; e constatar sua variabilidade espacial em função do relevo. Em área experimental de 1.500 m², situada em Piracicaba-SP (latitude de 22° 42' 30" S, longitude de 47° 38' 00" W e 546 m de altitude), estabeleceram-se 60 pontos de amostragem, distanciados entre si de 5 m, numa grade de 10 por 6 pontos (50 x 30 m). Os valores da armazenagem de água no solo apresentaram comportamento-padrão para o solo estudado, com valores maiores em profundidade do que na camada mais superficial. Houve maior estabilidade temporal da armazenagem de água no solo durante o período chuvoso, porém na fase de secagem do solo a estabilidade temporal também foi constatada, mas com valores de coeficiente de correlação mais elevados na camada de 0,0-0,80 m, mostrando que essa estabilidade foi claramente devida à posição topográfica desses pontos, os quais estão localizados na porção mais baixa do relevo. Assim, o ponto 52 foi escolhido como representativo da média na fase de recarga de água no solo em ambas as camadas estudadas, e o ponto 46, na camada superior durante a fase de secagem do solo. A dependência espacial da variabilidade da armazenagem de água no solo foi detectada em ambas as camadas de solo, porém com maior alcance na camada de 0,0-0,40 m, quando houve ocorrência de precipitação. Quando as chuvas cessaram, o alcance foi maior na camada de 0,0-0,80 m. Durante o período chuvoso, o padrão de variabilidade espacial foi muito semelhante em ambas as camadas de solo, com armazenagens maiores na faixa de maior inclinação e depressões do terreno.