A model of road effect using line integrals and a test of the performance of two new road indices using the distribution of small mammals in an Atlantic Forest landscape

Effects of roads on wildlife and its habitat have been measured using metrics, such as the nearest road distance, road density, and effective mesh size. In this work we introduce two new indices: (1) Integral Road Effect (IRE), which measured the sum effects of points in a road at a fixed point in the forest; and (2) Average Value of the Infinitesimal Road Effect (AVIRE), which measured the average of the effects of roads at this point. IRE is formally defined as the line integral of a special function (the infinitesimal road effect) along the curves that model the roads, whereas AVIRE is the quotient of IRE by the length of the roads. Combining tools of ArcGIS software with a numerical algorithm, we calculated these and other road and habitat cover indices in a sample of points in a human-modified landscape in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where data on the abundance of two groups of small mammals (forest specialists and habitat generalists) were collected in the field. We then compared through the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) a set of candidate regression models to explain the variation in small mammal abundance, including models with our two new road indices (AVIRE and IRE) or models with other road effect indices (nearest road distance, mesh size, and road density), and reference models (containing only habitat indices, or only the intercept without the effect of any variable). Compared to other road effect indices, AVIRE showed the best performance to explain abundance of forest specialist species, whereas the nearest road distance obtained the best performance to generalist species. AVIRE and habitat together were included in the best model for both small mammal groups, that is, higher abundance of specialist and generalist small mammals occurred where there is lower average road effect (less AVIRE) and more habitat. Moreover, AVIRE was not significantly correlated with habitat cover of specialists and generalists differing from the other road effect indices, except mesh size, which allows for separating the effect of roads from the effect of habitat on small mammal communities. We suggest that the proposed indices and GIS procedures could also be useful to describe other spatial ecological phenomena, such as edge effect in habitat fragments. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A biophysical model of Sugarcane growth

Scientists predict that global agricultural lands will expand over the next few decades due to increasing demands for food production and an exponential increase in crop-based biofuel production. These changes in land use will greatly impact biogeochemical and biogeophysical cycles across the globe. It is therefore important to develop models that can accurately simulate the interactions between the atmosphere and important crops. In this study, we develop and validate a new process-based sugarcane model (included as a module within the Agro-IBIS dynamic agro-ecosystem model) which can be applied at multiple spatial scales. At site level, the model systematically under/overestimated the daily sensible/latent heat flux (by -10.5% and 14.8%, H and E, respectively) when compared against the micrometeorological observations from southeast Brazil. The model underestimated ET (relative bias between -10.1% and 12.5%) when compared against an agro-meteorological field experiment from northeast Australia. At the regional level, the model accurately simulated average yield for the four largest mesoregions (clusters of municipalities) in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, over a period of 16 years, with a yield relative bias of -0.68% to 1.08%. Finally, the simulated annual average sugarcane yield over 31 years for the state of Louisiana (US) had a low relative bias (-2.67%), but exhibited a lower interannual variability than the observed yields.

OXYGEN ABUNDANCES IN LOW- AND HIGH-alpha FIELD HALO STARS AND THE DISCOVERY OF TWO FIELD STARS BORN IN GLOBULAR CLUSTERS

Oxygen abundances of 67 dwarf stars in the metallicity range -1.6 < [Fe/H] < -0.4 are derived from a non-LTE analysis of the 777 nm O I triplet lines. These stars have precise atmospheric parameters measured by Nissen and Schuster, who find that they separate into three groups based on their kinematics and alpha-element (Mg, Si, Ca, Ti) abundances: thick disk, high-alpha halo, and low-alpha halo. We find the oxygen abundance trends of thick-disk and high-alpha halo stars very similar. The low-alpha stars show a larger star-to-star scatter in [O/Fe] at a given [Fe/H] and have systematically lower oxygen abundances compared to the other two groups. Thus, we find the behavior of oxygen abundances in these groups of stars similar to that of the a elements. We use previously published oxygen abundance data of disk and very metal-poor halo stars to present an overall view (-2.3 < [Fe/H] < +0.3) of oxygen abundance trends of stars in the solar neighborhood. Two field halo dwarf stars stand out in their O and Na abundances. Both G53-41 and G150-40 have very low oxygen and very high sodium abundances, which are key signatures of the abundance anomalies observed in globular cluster (GC) stars. Therefore, they are likely field halo stars born in GCs. If true, we estimate that at least 3% +/- 2% of the local field metal-poor star population was born in GCs.

Effect of external fields in Axelrod's model of social dynamics

The study of the effects of spatially uniform fields on the steady-state properties of Axelrod's model has yielded plenty of counterintuitive results. Here, we reexamine the impact of this type of field for a selection of parameters such that the field-free steady state of the model is heterogeneous or multicultural. Analyses of both one- and two-dimensional versions of Axelrod's model indicate that the steady state remains heterogeneous regardless of the value of the field strength. Turning on the field leads to a discontinuous decrease on the number of cultural domains, which we argue is due to the instability of zero-field heterogeneous absorbing configurations. We find, however, that spatially nonuniform fields that implement a consensus rule among the neighborhood of the agents enforce homogenization. Although the overall effects of the fields are essentially the same irrespective of the dimensionality of the model, we argue that the dimensionality has a significant impact on the stability of the field-free homogeneous steady state.

Pair approximation for a model of vertical and horizontal transmission of parasites.

We apply Stochastic Dynamics method for a differential equations model, proposed by Marc Lipsitch and collaborators (Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 260, 321, 1995), for which the transmission dynamics of parasites occurs from a parent to its offspring (vertical transmission), and by contact with infected host (horizontal transmission). Herpes, Hepatitis and AIDS are examples of diseases for which both horizontal and vertical transmission occur simultaneously during the virus spreading. Understanding the role of each type of transmission in the infection prevalence on a susceptible host population may provide some information about the factors that contribute for the eradication and/or control of those diseases. We present a pair mean-field approximation obtained from the master equation of the model. The pair approximation is formed by the differential equations of the susceptible and infected population densities and the differential equations of pairs that contribute to the former ones. In terms of the model parameters, we obtain the conditions that lead to the disease eradication, and set up the phase diagram based on the local stability analysis of fixed points. We also perform Monte Carlo simulations of the model on complete graphs and Erdös-Rényi graphs in order to investigate the influence of population size and neighborhood on the previous mean-field results; by this way, we also expect to evaluate the contribution of vertical and horizontal transmission on the elimination of parasite. Pair Approximation for a Model of Vertical and Horizontal Transmission of Parasites.

Testing the influence of far-field topographic forcing on subduction initiation at a passive margin

Despite favourable gravitational instability and ridge-push, elastic and frictional forces prevent subduction initiation fromarising spontaneously at passive margins. Here,we argue that forces arising fromlarge continental topographic gradients are required to initiate subduction at passivemargins. In order to test this hypothesis,we use 2Dnumerical models to assess the influence of the Andean Plateau on stressmagnitudes and deformation patterns at the Brazilian passive margin. The numerical results indicate that “plateau-push” in this region is a necessary additional force to initiate subduction. As the SE Brazilianmargin currently shows no signs of self-sustained subduction, we examined geological and geophysical data to determine if themargin is in the preliminary stages of subduction initiation. The compiled data indicate that the margin is presently undergoing tectonic inversion, which we infer as part of the continental–oceanic overthrusting stage of subduction initiation. We refer to this early subduction stage as the “Brazilian Stage”, which is characterized by N10 kmdeep reverse fault seismicity at themargin, recent topographic uplift on the continental side, thick continental crust at themargin, and bulging on the oceanic side due to loading by the overthrusting continent. The combined results of the numerical simulations and passivemargin analysis indicate that the SE Brazilian margin is a prototype candidate for subduction initiation.