8 resultados para Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE)

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper presents experimental results for flow boiling heat transfer coefficient and critical heat flux (CHF) in small flattened tubes. The tested flattened tubes have the same equivalent internal diameter of 2.2 mm, but different aspect height/width ratios (H/W) of 1/4, 1/2, 2 and 4. The experimental data were compared against results for circular tubes using R134a and R245fa as working fluids at a nominal saturation temperature of 31 degrees C. For mass velocities higher than 200 kg/m(2)s, the flattened and circular tubes presented similar heat transfer coefficients. Such a behavior is related to the fact that stratification effects are negligible under conditions of higher mass velocities. Heat transfer correlations from the literature, usually developed using only circular-channel experimental data, predicted the flattened tube results for mass velocities higher than 200 kg/m(2)s with mean absolute error lower than 20% using the equivalent diameter to account for the geometry effect. Similarly, the critical heat flux results were found to be independent of the tube aspect ratio when the same equivalent length was kept. Equivalent length is a new parameter which takes into account the channel heat transfer area. The CHF correlations for round tubes predicted the flattened tube data relatively well when using the equivalent diameter and length. Furthermore, a new proposed CHF correlation predicted the present flattened tube data with a mean absolute error of 5%. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Microparticles of ketoprofen entrapped in blends of acrylic resins (Eudragit RL 30D and RS 30D) were successfully produced by spray drying. The effects of the proportion ketoprofen : polymer (1: 1 and 1: 3) and of spray-drying parameters (drying gas inlet temperatures of 80 and 100 degrees C; microencapsulating composition feed flow rates of 4 and 6 g/min) on the microparticles properties (drug content, encapsulation efficiency, mean particle size, moisture content, and dissolution behavior) were evaluated. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) thermograms and X-ray diffractograms of the spray-dried product, the free drug, and the physical mixture between the free drug and spray-dried composition (blank) were carried out. Microparticles obtained at inlet temperature of 80 degrees C, feed flow rate of 4 g/min, and ketoprofen : acrylic resin ratio of 1: 3 presented an encapsulation efficiency of 88.1%, moisture content of 5.8%, production yield around 50%, and a higher reduction in dissolution rate of the entrapped ketoprofen. Sigmoidal shape dissolution profiles were presented by the spray-dried microparticles. The dissolution profiles were relatively well described by the Weibull model, a showing high coefficient of determination, R-2, and a mean absolute error between experimental and estimated values of between 4.6 and 10.1%.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The objective of this research was to use non-linear models to describe the growth pattern in Santa Ines sheep and to study the influence of environmental effects on curve parameters with the best-fit model. The models included the Brody, Richards, Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and Logistic models. We used 773 field reports on 162 animals ranging in age from 120 to 774 days, including 46 males and 116 females. The statistics used to evaluate the quality of fit included RMS (residual mean square), C% (percentage of convergence), R-2 (adjusted determination coefficient) and MAD (mean absolute deviation). Of the fixed effects studied, the only significant relationship was the effect of sex on parameter A. The Richards model was problematic during the process of convergence. Considering all studied criteria, the Logistic model presented the best fit in describing the growth pattern in Santa Ines sheep. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Ng and Kotz (1995) introduced a distribution that provides greater flexibility to extremes. We define and study a new class of distributions called the Kummer beta generalized family to extend the normal, Weibull, gamma and Gumbel distributions, among several other well-known distributions. Some special models are discussed. The ordinary moments of any distribution in the new family can be expressed as linear functions of probability weighted moments of the baseline distribution. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. We derive the density function of the order statistics, mean absolute deviations and entropies. We use maximum likelihood estimation to fit the distributions in the new class and illustrate its potentiality with an application to a real data set.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The objective of this study was to evaluate accuracy, precision and robustness of two methods to obtain silage samples, in comparison with extraction of liquor by manual screw-press. Wet brewery residue alone or combined with soybean hulls and citrus pulp were ensiled in laboratory silos. Liquor was extracted by a manual screw-press and a 2-mL aliquot was fixed with 0.4 mL formic acid. Two 10-g silage samples from each silo were diluted in 20 mL deionized water or 17% formic acid solution (alternative methods). Aliquots obtained by the three methods were used to determine the silage contents of fermentation end-products. The accuracy of the alternative methods was evaluated by comparing mean bias of estimates obtained by manual screw-press and by alternative methods, whereas precision was assessed by the root mean square prediction error and the residual error. Robustness was determined by studying the interaction between bias and chemical components, pH, in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and buffer capacity. The 17% formic acid method was more accurate for estimating acetic, butyric and lactic acids, although it resulted in low overestimates of propionic acid and underestimates of ethanol. The deionized water method overestimated acetic and propionic acids and slightly underestimated ethanol. The 17% formic acid method was more precise than deionized water for estimating all organic acids and ethanol. The robustness of each method with respect to variation in the silage chemical composition, IVDMD and pH is dependent on the fermentation end-product at evaluation. The robustness of the alternative methods seems to be critical at the determination of lactic acid and ethanol contents.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of lactation and dry period in the constituents of lipid and glucose metabolism of buffaloes. One hundred forty-seven samples of serum and plasma were collected between November 2009 and July 2010, from properties raising Murrah, Mediterranean and crossbred buffaloes, located in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Biochemical analysis was obtained by determining the contents of serum cholesterol, triglycerides, beta-hydroxybutyrate (β-HBO), non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and plasma glucose. Values for arithmetic mean and standard error mean were calculated using the SAS procedure, version 9.2. Tests for normality of residuals and homogeneity of variances were performed using the SAS Guide Data Analysis. Data were analyzed by ANOVA using the SAS procedure Glimmix. The group information (Lactation), Farm and Age were used in the statistical models. Means of groups were compared using Least Square Means (LSMeans) of SAS, where significant difference was observed at P ≤ 0.05. It was possible to conclude that buffaloes during peak lactation need to metabolize body reserves to supplement the lower amounts of bloodstream lipids, when they remain in negative energy balance. In the dry period, there were significant changes in the lipid profile, characterized by decrease of nutritional requirements, with consequent improvement in the general conditions of the animals.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Chaabene, H, Hachana, Y, Franchini, E, Mkaouer, B, Montassar, M, and Chamari, K. Reliability and construct validity of the karate-specific aerobic test. J Strength Cond Res 26(12): 3454-3460, 2012-The aim of this study was to examine absolute and relative reliabilities and external responsiveness of the Karate-specific aerobic test (KSAT). This study comprised 43 male karatekas, 19 of them participated in the first study to establish test-retest reliability and 40, selected on the bases of their karate experience and level of practice, participated in the second study to identify external responsiveness of the KSAT. The latter group was divided into 2 categories: national-level group (G(n)) and regional-level group (Gr). Analysis showed excellent test-retest reliability of time to exhaustion (TE), with intraclass correlation coefficient ICC(3,1) >0.90, standard error of measurement (SEM) <5%: (3.2%) and mean difference (bias) +/- the 95% limits of agreement: -9.5 +/- 78.8 seconds. There was a significant difference between test-retest session in peak lactate concentration (Peak [La]) (9.12 +/- 2.59 vs. 8.05 +/- 2.67 mmol.L-1; p < 0.05) but not in peak heart rate (HRpeak) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) (196 +/- 9 vs. 194 +/- 9 b.min(-1) and 7.6 +/- 0.93 vs. 7.8 +/- 1.15; p > 0.05), respectively. National-level karate athletes (1,032 +/- 101 seconds) were better than regional level (841 +/- 134 seconds) on TE performance during KSAT (p < 0.001). Thus, KSAT provided good external responsiveness. The area under the receiver operator characteristics curve was >0.70 (0.86; confidence interval 95%: 0.72-0.95). Significant difference was detected in Peak [La] between national- (6.09 +/- 1.78 mmol.L-1) and regional-level (8.48 +/- 2.63 mmol.L-1) groups, but not in HRpeak (194 +/- 8 vs. 195 +/- 8 b.min(-1)) and RPE (7.57 +/- 1.15 vs. 7.42 +/- 1.1), respectively. The result of this study indicates that KSAT provides excellent absolute and relative reliabilities. The KSAT can effectively distinguish karate athletes of different competitive levels. Thus, the KSAT may be suitable for field assessment of aerobic fitness of karate practitioners.