Environmental suitability of a highly fragmented and heterogeneous landscape for forest bird species in south-eastern Brazil

Assessment of the suitability of anthropogenic landscapes for wildlife species is crucial for setting priorities for biodiversity conservation. This study aimed to analyse the environmental suitability of a highly fragmented region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world's 25 recognized biodiversity hotspots, for forest bird species. Eight forest bird species were selected for the analyses, based on point counts (n = 122) conducted in April-September 2006 and January-March 2009. Six additional variables (landscape diversity, distance from forest and streams, aspect, elevation and slope) were modelled in Maxent for (1) actual and (2) simulated land cover, based on the forest expansion required by existing Brazilian forest legislation. Models were evaluated by bootstrap or jackknife methods and their performance was assessed by AUC, omission error, binomial probability or p value. All predictive models were statistically significant, with high AUC values and low omission errors. A small proportion of the actual landscape (24.41 +/- 6.31%) was suitable for forest bird species. The simulated landscapes lead to an increase of c. 30% in total suitable areas. In average, models predicted a small increase (23.69 +/- 6.95%) in the area of suitable native forest for bird species. Being close to forest increased the environmental suitability of landscapes for all bird species; landscape diversity was also a significant factor for some species. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that species distribution modelling (SDM) successfully predicted bird distribution across a heterogeneous landscape at fine spatial resolution, as all models were biologically relevant and statistically significant. The use of landscape variables as predictors contributed significantly to the results, particularly for species distributions over small extents and at fine scales. This is the first study to evaluate the environmental suitability of the remaining Brazilian Atlantic Forest for bird species in an agricultural landscape, and provides important additional data for regional environmental planning.

Generalized beta-generated distributions

This article introduces generalized beta-generated (GBG) distributions. Sub-models include all classical beta-generated, Kumaraswamy-generated and exponentiated distributions. They are maximum entropy distributions under three intuitive conditions, which show that the classical beta generator skewness parameters only control tail entropy and an additional shape parameter is needed to add entropy to the centre of the parent distribution. This parameter controls skewness without necessarily differentiating tail weights. The GBG class also has tractable properties: we present various expansions for moments, generating function and quantiles. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and the usefulness of the new class is illustrated by means of some real data sets. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Potential Geographic Distribution of Black Pepper (Piper nigrum) in Asia Using GIS Tools

Known as the "king of spices", black pepper (Piper nigrum), a perennial crop of the tropics, is economically the most important and the most widely used spice crop in the world. To understand its suitable bioclimatic distribution, maximum entropy based on ecological niche modeling was used to model the bioclimatic niches of the species in its Asian range. Based on known occurrences, bioclimatic areas with higher probabilities are mainly located in the eastern and western coasts of the Indian Peninsula, the east of Sumatra Island, some areas in the Malay Archipelago, and the southeast coastal areas of China. Some undocumented places were also predicted as suitable areas. According to the jackknife procedure, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the mean monthly temperature range, and the precipitation of the wettest month were identified as highly effective factors in the distribution of black pepper and could possibly account for the crop's distribution pattern. Such climatic requirements inhibited this species from dispersing and gaining a larger geographical range.

Pollination services at risk: Bee habitats will decrease owing to climate change in Brazil

Native bees are important providers of pollination services, but there are cumulative evidences of their decline. Global changes such as habitat losses, invasions of exotic species and climate change have been suggested as the main causes of the decline of pollinators. In this study, the influence of climate change on the distribution of 10 species of Brazilian bees was estimated with species distribution modelling. We used Maxent algorithm (maximum entropy) and two different scenarios, an optimistic and a pessimistic, to the years 2050 and 2080. We also evaluated the percentage reduction of species habitat based on the future scenarios of climate change through Geographic Information System (GIS). Results showed that the total area of suitable habitats decreased for all species but one under the different future scenarios. The greatest reductions in habitat area were found for Melipona bicolor bicolor and Melipona scutellaris, which occur predominantly in areas related originally to Atlantic Moist Forest. The species analysed have been reported to be pollinators of some regional crops and the consequence of their decrease for these crops needs further clarification. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multivariate gene expression analysis reveals functional connectivity changes between normal/tumoral prostates

Abstract Background Prostate cancer is a leading cause of death in the male population, therefore, a comprehensive study about the genes and the molecular networks involved in the tumoral prostate process becomes necessary. In order to understand the biological process behind potential biomarkers, we have analyzed a set of 57 cDNA microarrays containing ~25,000 genes. Results Principal Component Analysis (PCA) combined with the Maximum-entropy Linear Discriminant Analysis (MLDA) were applied in order to identify genes with the most discriminative information between normal and tumoral prostatic tissues. Data analysis was carried out using three different approaches, namely: (i) differences in gene expression levels between normal and tumoral conditions from an univariate point of view; (ii) in a multivariate fashion using MLDA; and (iii) with a dependence network approach. Our results show that malignant transformation in the prostatic tissue is more related to functional connectivity changes in their dependence networks than to differential gene expression. The MYLK, KLK2, KLK3, HAN11, LTF, CSRP1 and TGM4 genes presented significant changes in their functional connectivity between normal and tumoral conditions and were also classified as the top seven most informative genes for the prostate cancer genesis process by our discriminant analysis. Moreover, among the identified genes we found classically known biomarkers and genes which are closely related to tumoral prostate, such as KLK3 and KLK2 and several other potential ones. Conclusion We have demonstrated that changes in functional connectivity may be implicit in the biological process which renders some genes more informative to discriminate between normal and tumoral conditions. Using the proposed method, namely, MLDA, in order to analyze the multivariate characteristic of genes, it was possible to capture the changes in dependence networks which are related to cell transformation.

Biological evolution of replicator systems: towards a quantitative approach

The aim of this work is to study the features of a simple replicator chemical model of the relation between kinetic stability and entropy production under the action of external perturbations. We quantitatively explore the different paths leading to evolution in a toy model where two independent replicators compete for the same substrate. To do that, the same scenario described originally by Pross (J Phys Org Chem 17:312–316, 2004) is revised and new criteria to define the kinetic stability are proposed. Our results suggest that fast replicator populations are continually favored by the effects of strong stochastic environmental fluctuations capable to determine the global population, the former assumed to be the only acting evolution force. We demonstrate that the process is continually driven by strong perturbations only, and that population crashes may be useful proxies for these catastrophic environmental fluctuations. As expected, such behavior is particularly enhanced under very large scale perturbations, suggesting a likely dynamical footprint in the recovery patterns of new species after mass extinction events in the Earth’s geological past. Furthermore, the hypothesis that natural selection always favors the faster processes may give theoretical support to different studies that claim the applicability of maximum principles like the Maximum Metabolic Flux (MMF) or Maximum Entropy Productions Principle (MEPP), seen as the main goal of biological evolution.

Evaluation of physiologic complexity in time series using generalized sample entropy and surrogate data analysis

Complexity in time series is an intriguing feature of living dynamical systems, with potential use for identification of system state. Although various methods have been proposed for measuring physiologic complexity, uncorrelated time series are often assigned high values of complexity, errouneously classifying them as a complex physiological signals. Here, we propose and discuss a method for complex system analysis based on generalized statistical formalism and surrogate time series. Sample entropy (SampEn) was rewritten inspired in Tsallis generalized entropy, as function of q parameter (qSampEn). qSDiff curves were calculated, which consist of differences between original and surrogate series qSampEn. We evaluated qSDiff for 125 real heart rate variability (HRV) dynamics, divided into groups of 70 healthy, 44 congestive heart failure (CHF), and 11 atrial fibrillation (AF) subjects, and for simulated series of stochastic and chaotic process. The evaluations showed that, for nonperiodic signals, qSDiff curves have a maximum point (qSDiff(max)) for q not equal 1. Values of q where the maximum point occurs and where qSDiff is zero were also evaluated. Only qSDiff(max) values were capable of distinguish HRV groups (p-values 5.10 x 10(-3); 1.11 x 10(-7), and 5.50 x 10(-7) for healthy vs. CHF, healthy vs. AF, and CHF vs. AF, respectively), consistently with the concept of physiologic complexity, and suggests a potential use for chaotic system analysis. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4758815]

Heritability Estimate and Genetic Correlations of Reproductive Features in Nellore Bulls, Offspring of Super Precocious, Precocious and Normal Cows Under Extensive Farming Conditions

The present work aimed to estimate heritability and genetic correlations of reproductive features of Nellore bulls, offspring of mothers classified as superprecocious (M1), precocious (M2) and normal (M3). Twenty one thousand hundred and eighty-six animals with average age of 21.29 months were used, evaluated through the breeding soundness evaluation from 1999 to 2008. The breeding soundness features included physical semen evaluation (progressive sperm motility and sperm vigour), semen morphology (major, minor and total sperm defects), scrotal circumference (SC), testicular volume (TV) and SC at 18 months of age (SC18). The components of variance, heritability and genetic correlations for and between the features were estimated simultaneously by restricted maximum likelihood, with the use of the vce software system vs 6. The heritability estimates were high for SC18, SC and TV (0.43, 0.63 and 0.54; 0.45, 0.45 and 0.44; 0.42, 0.45 and 0.41, respectively for the categories of mothers M1, M2 and M3) and low for physical and morphological semen aspects. The genetic correlations between SC18 and SC were high, as well as between these variables with TV. High and positive genetic correlations were recorded among SC18, SC and TV with the physical aspects of the semen, although no favourable association was verified with the morphological aspects, for the three categories of mothers. It can be concluded that the mothers sexual precocity did not affect the heritability of their offspring reproduction features.

Dry matter production of Tanzania grass as a function of agrometeorological variables

The objective of this work was to develop and validate linear regression models to estimate the production of dry matter by Tanzania grass (Megathyrsus maximus, cultivar Tanzania) as a function of agrometeorological variables. For this purpose, data on the growth of this forage grass from 2000 to 2005, under dry-field conditions in Sao Carlos, SP, Brazil, were correlated to the following climatic parameters: minimum and mean temperatures, degree-days, and potential and actual evapotranspiration. Simple linear regressions were performed between agrometeorological variables (independent) and the dry matter accumulation rate (dependent). The estimates were validated with independent data obtained in Sao Carlos and Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. The best statistical results in the development and validation of the models were obtained with the agrometeorological parameters that consider thermal and water availability effects together, such as actual evapotranspiration, accumulation of degree-days corrected by water availability, and the climatic growth index, based on average temperature, solar radiation, and water availability. These variables can be used in simulations and models to predict the production of Tanzania grass.

Towards higher precision and operational use of optical homodyne tomograms

We present the results of an operational use of experimentally measured optical tomograms to determine state characteristics (purity) avoiding any reconstruction of quasiprobabilities. We also develop a natural way how to estimate the errors (including both statistical and systematic ones) by an analysis of the experimental data themselves. Precision of the experiment can be increased by postselecting the data with minimal (systematic) errors. We demonstrate those techniques by considering coherent and photon-added coherent states measured via the time-domain improved homodyne detection. The operational use and precision of the data allowed us to check purity-dependent uncertainty relations and uncertainty relations for Shannon and Renyi entropies.

Use of pulse pressure variation to estimate changes in preload during experimental acute normovolemic hemodilution

Background. Acute normovolemic hemodilution (ANH) is an alternative to blood transfusion in surgeries involving blood loss. This experimental study was designed to evaluate whether pulse pressure variation (PPV) would be an adequate tool for monitoring changes in preload during ANH, as assessed by transesophageal echocardiography. Methods. Twenty-one anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were randomized into three groups: CTL (control), HES (hemodilution with 6% hydroxyethyl starch at a 1:1 ratio) or NS (hemodilution with saline 0.9% at a 3:1 ratio). Hemodilution was performed in animals of groups NS and HES in two stages, with target hematocrits 22% and 15%, achieved at 30-minute intervals. After two hours, 50% of the blood volume withdrawn was transfused and animals were monitored for another hour. Statistical analysis was based on ANOVA for repeated measures followed by multiple comparison test (P<0.05). Pearson's correlations were performed between changes in left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDV) and PPV, central venous pressure (CVP) and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP). Results. Group NS received a significantly greater amount of fluids during ANH (NS, 900 +/- 168 mL vs. HES, 200 +/- 50 mL, P<0.05) and presented greater urine output (NS, 2643 +/- 1097mL vs. HES, 641 +/- 338mL, P<0.001). Significant decreases in LVEDV were observed in group NS from completion of ANH until transfusion. In group HES, only increases in LVEDV were observed, at the end of ANH and at transfusion. Such changes in LVEDV (Delta LVEDV) were better reflected by changes in PPV (Delta PPV, R=-0.62) than changes in CVP (Delta CVP R=0.32) or in PAOP (Delta PAOP, R=0.42, respectively). Conclusion. Changes in preload during ANH were detected by changes in PPV. Delta PPV was superior to Delta PAOP and Delta CVP to this end. (Minerva Anestesiol 2012;78:426-33)

General results for the Kumaraswamy-G distribution

For any continuous baseline G distribution [G. M. Cordeiro and M. de Castro, A new family of generalized distributions, J. Statist. Comput. Simul. 81 (2011), pp. 883-898], proposed a new generalized distribution (denoted here with the prefix 'Kw-G'(Kumaraswamy-G)) with two extra positive parameters. They studied some of its mathematical properties and presented special sub-models. We derive a simple representation for the Kw-Gdensity function as a linear combination of exponentiated-G distributions. Some new distributions are proposed as sub-models of this family, for example, the Kw-Chen [Z.A. Chen, A new two-parameter lifetime distribution with bathtub shape or increasing failure rate function, Statist. Probab. Lett. 49 (2000), pp. 155-161], Kw-XTG [M. Xie, Y. Tang, and T.N. Goh, A modified Weibull extension with bathtub failure rate function, Reliab. Eng. System Safety 76 (2002), pp. 279-285] and Kw-Flexible Weibull [M. Bebbington, C. D. Lai, and R. Zitikis, A flexible Weibull extension, Reliab. Eng. System Safety 92 (2007), pp. 719-726]. New properties of the Kw-G distribution are derived which include asymptotes, shapes, moments, moment generating function, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability, Renyi entropy and Shannon entropy. New properties of the order statistics are investigated. We discuss the estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood. We provide two applications to real data sets and discuss a bivariate extension of the Kw-G distribution.

An estimate on the fractal dimension of attractors of gradient-like dynamical systems

This paper is dedicated to estimate the fractal dimension of exponential global attractors of some generalized gradient-like semigroups in a general Banach space in terms of the maximum of the dimension of the local unstable manifolds of the isolated invariant sets, Lipschitz properties of the semigroup and the rate of exponential attraction. We also generalize this result for some special evolution processes, introducing a concept of Morse decomposition with pullback attractivity. Under suitable assumptions, if (A, A*) is an attractor-repeller pair for the attractor A of a semigroup {T(t) : t >= 0}, then the fractal dimension of A can be estimated in terms of the fractal dimension of the local unstable manifold of A*, the fractal dimension of A, the Lipschitz properties of the semigroup and the rate of the exponential attraction. The ingredients of the proof are the notion of generalized gradient-like semigroups and their regular attractors, Morse decomposition and a fine analysis of the structure of the attractors. As we said previously, we generalize this result for some evolution processes using the same basic ideas. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical Innovations Improve Prevalence Estimates of Nutrient Risk Populations: Applications in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake and excess sodium intake among adults age 19 years and older in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Twenty-four hour dietary recall and sociodemographic data were collected from each participant (n=1,663) in a cross-sectional study, Inquiry of Health of Sao Paulo, of a representative sample of the adult population of the city of Sao Paulo in 2003 (ISA-2003). The variability in intake was measured through two replications of the 24-hour recall in a subsample of this population in 2007 (ISA-2007). Usual intake was estimated by the PC-SIDE program (version 1.0, 2003, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University), which uses an approach developed by Iowa State University. The prevalence of nutrient inadequacy was calculated using the Estimated Average Requirement cut-point method for vitamins A and C, thiamin, riboflavin, niacin, copper, phosphorus, and selenium. For vitamin D, pantothenic acid, manganese, and sodium, the proportion of individuals with usual intake equal to or more than the Adequate Intake value was calculated. The percentage of individuals with intake equal to more than the Tolerable Upper Intake Level was calculated for sodium. The highest prevalence of inadequacy for males and females, respectively, occurred for vitamin A (67% and 58%), vitamin C (52% and 62%), thiamin (41% and 50%), and riboflavin (29% and 19%). The adjustment for the within-person variation presented lower prevalence of inadequacy due to removal of within-person variability. All adult residents of Sao Paulo had excess sodium intake, and the rates of nutrient inadequacy were high for certain key micronutrients. J Acad Nutr Diet. 2012;112:1614-1618.

Statistical Information: A Bayesian Perspective

We explore the meaning of information about quantities of interest. Our approach is divided in two scenarios: the analysis of observations and the planning of an experiment. First, we review the Sufficiency, Conditionality and Likelihood principles and how they relate to trivial experiments. Next, we review Blackwell Sufficiency and show that sampling without replacement is Blackwell Sufficient for sampling with replacement. Finally, we unify the two scenarios presenting an extension of the relationship between Blackwell Equivalence and the Likelihood Principle.