A mathematical model for optimizing the indications of liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract Background The criteria for organ sharing has developed a system that prioritizes liver transplantation (LT) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who have the highest risk of wait-list mortality. In some countries this model allows patients only within the Milan Criteria (MC, defined by the presence of a single nodule up to 5 cm, up to three nodules none larger than 3 cm, with no evidence of extrahepatic spread or macrovascular invasion) to be evaluated for liver transplantation. This police implies that some patients with HCC slightly more advanced than those allowed by the current strict selection criteria will be excluded, even though LT for these patients might be associated with acceptable long-term outcomes. Methods We propose a mathematical approach to study the consequences of relaxing the MC for patients with HCC that do not comply with the current rules for inclusion in the transplantation candidate list. We consider overall 5-years survival rates compatible with the ones reported in the literature. We calculate the best strategy that would minimize the total mortality of the affected population, that is, the total number of people in both groups of HCC patients that die after 5 years of the implementation of the strategy, either by post-transplantation death or by death due to the basic HCC. We illustrate the above analysis with a simulation of a theoretical population of 1,500 HCC patients with tumor size exponentially. The parameter λ obtained from the literature was equal to 0.3. As the total number of patients in these real samples was 327 patients, this implied in an average size of 3.3 cm and a 95% confidence interval of [2.9; 3.7]. The total number of available livers to be grafted was assumed to be 500. Results With 1500 patients in the waiting list and 500 grafts available we simulated the total number of deaths in both transplanted and non-transplanted HCC patients after 5 years as a function of the tumor size of transplanted patients. The total number of deaths drops down monotonically with tumor size, reaching a minimum at size equals to 7 cm, increasing from thereafter. With tumor size equals to 10 cm the total mortality is equal to the 5 cm threshold of the Milan criteria. Conclusion We concluded that it is possible to include patients with tumor size up to 10 cm without increasing the total mortality of this population.

A heat transfer model of the human upper limbs

A steady state multi-segmented heat transfer model of the human upper limbs was developed. The main purpose was to evaluate the impact of blood flow through superficial veins and subcutaneous vascular structures in the palm of the hands over the heat transfer between the limbs and the environment. The distinguishing feature of the model is the inclusion of a detailed circulatory network composed of vessels with diameter larger than 1 mm. The model was validated by comparing its results from exposures to a hot, a neutral, and a cold environment to experimental data presented in the literature. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Progress in the mathematical theory of quantum disordered systems

We review recent progress in the mathematical theory of quantum disordered systems: the Anderson transition, including some joint work with Marchetti, the (quantum and classical) Edwards-Anderson (EA) spin-glass model and return to equilibrium for a class of spin-glass models, which includes the EA model initially in a very large transverse magnetic field. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4770066]

Forced Desynchronization of Activity Rhythms in a Model of Chronic Jet Lag in Mice

We studied locomotor activity rhythms of C57/Bl6 mice under a chronic jet lag (CJL) protocol (ChrA(6/2)), which consisted of 6-hour phase advances of the light-dark schedule (LD) every 2 days. Through periodogram analysis, we found 2 components of the activity rhythm: a short-period component (21.01 +/- 0.04 h) that was entrained by the LD schedule and a long-period component (24.68 +/- 0.26 h). We developed a mathematical model comprising 2 coupled circadian oscillators that was tested experimentally with different CJL schedules. Our simulations suggested that under CJL, the system behaves as if it were under a zeitgeber with a period determined by (24 -[phase shift size/days between shifts]). Desynchronization within the system arises according to whether this effective zeitgeber is inside or outside the range of entrainment of the oscillators. In this sense, ChrA(6/2) is interpreted as a (24 - 6/2 = 21 h) zeitgeber, and simulations predicted the behavior of mice under other CJL schedules with an effective 21-hour zeitgeber. Animals studied under an asymmetric T = 21 h zeitgeber (carried out by a 3-hour shortening of every dark phase) showed 2 activity components as observed under ChrA(6/2): an entrained short-period (21.01 +/- 0.03 h) and a long-period component (23.93 +/- 0.31 h). Internal desynchronization was lost when mice were subjected to 9-hour advances every 3 days, a possibility also contemplated by the simulations. Simulations also predicted that desynchronization should be less prevalent under delaying than under advancing CJL. Indeed, most mice subjected to 6-hour delay shifts every 2 days (an effective 27-hour zeitgeber) displayed a single entrained activity component (26.92 +/- 0.11 h). Our results demonstrate that the disruption provoked by CJL schedules is not dependent on the phase-shift magnitude or the frequency of the shifts separately but on the combination of both, through its ratio and additionally on their absolute values. In this study, we present a novel model of forced desynchronization in mice under a specific CJL schedule; in addition, our model provides theoretical tools for the evaluation of circadian disruption under CJL conditions that are currently used in circadian research.

Freeze-drying microscopy in mathematical modeling of a biomaterial freeze-drying

Transplantation brings hope for many patients. A multidisciplinary approach on this field aims at creating biologically functional tissues to be used as implants and prostheses. The freeze-drying process allows the fundamental properties of these materials to be preserved, making future manipulation and storage easier. Optimizing a freeze-drying cycle is of great importance since it aims at reducing process costs while increasing product quality of this time-and-energy-consuming process. Mathematical modeling comes as a tool to help a better understanding of the process variables behavior and consequently it helps optimization studies. Freeze-drying microscopy is a technique usually applied to determine critical temperatures of liquid formulations. It has been used in this work to determine the sublimation rates of a biological tissue freeze-drying. The sublimation rates were measured from the speed of the moving interface between the dried and the frozen layer under 21.33, 42.66 and 63.99 Pa. The studied variables were used in a theoretical model to simulate various temperature profiles of the freeze-drying process. Good agreement between the experimental and the simulated results was found.

Exploration of the parameter space in an agent-based model of tuberculosis spread: emergence of drug resistance in developing vs developed countries

In this work we present an agent-based model for the spread of tuberculosis where the individuals can be infected with either drug-susceptible or drug-resistant strains and can also receive a treatment. The dynamics of the model and the role of each one of the parameters are explained. The whole set of parameters is explored to check their importance in the numerical simulation results. The model captures the beneficial impact of the adequate treatment on the prevalence of tuberculosis. Nevertheless, depending on the treatment parameters range, it also captures the emergence of drug resistance. Drug resistance emergence is particularly likely to occur for parameter values corresponding to less efficacious treatment, as usually found in developing countries.

A Cost-Effectiveness-Assessing Model of Vaccination for Varicella and Zoster

A decision analytical model is presented and analysed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination against varicella and herpes-zoster, or shingles. These diseases have as common aetiological agent the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Zoster can more likely occur in aged people with declining cell-mediated immunity. The general concern is that universal varicella vaccination might lead to more cases of zoster: with more vaccinated children exposure of the general population to varicella infectives become smaller and thus a larger proportion of older people will have weaker immunity to VZV, leading to more cases of reactivation of zoster. Our compartment model shows that only two possible equilibria exist, one without varicella and the other one where varicella arid zoster both thrive. Threshold quantities to distinguish these cases are derived. Cost estimates on a possible herd vaccination program are discussed indicating a possible tradeoff choice.

Effect of external fields in Axelrod's model of social dynamics

The study of the effects of spatially uniform fields on the steady-state properties of Axelrod's model has yielded plenty of counterintuitive results. Here, we reexamine the impact of this type of field for a selection of parameters such that the field-free steady state of the model is heterogeneous or multicultural. Analyses of both one- and two-dimensional versions of Axelrod's model indicate that the steady state remains heterogeneous regardless of the value of the field strength. Turning on the field leads to a discontinuous decrease on the number of cultural domains, which we argue is due to the instability of zero-field heterogeneous absorbing configurations. We find, however, that spatially nonuniform fields that implement a consensus rule among the neighborhood of the agents enforce homogenization. Although the overall effects of the fields are essentially the same irrespective of the dimensionality of the model, we argue that the dimensionality has a significant impact on the stability of the field-free homogeneous steady state.

Mechanical Alterations in airway smooth muscle after interaction with indoor pollutant – A mathematical model.

The viscoelasticity of mammalian lung is determined by the mechanical properties and structural regulation of the airway smooth muscle (ASM). The exposure to polluted air may deteriorate these properties with harmful consequences to individual health. Formaldehyde (FA) is an important indoor pollutant found among volatile organic compounds. This pollutant permeates through the smooth muscle tissue forming covalent bonds between proteins in the extracellular matrix and intracellular protein structure changing mechanical properties of ASM and inducing asthma symptoms, such as airway hyperresponsiveness, even at low concentrations. In the experimental scenario, the mechanical effect of FA is the stiffening of the tissue, but the mechanism behind this effect is not fully understood. Thus, the aim of this study is to reproduce the mechanical behavior of the ASM, such as contraction and stretching, under FA action or not. For this, it was created a two-dimensional viscoelastic network model based on Voronoi tessellation solved using Runge-Kutta method of fourth order. The equilibrium configuration was reached when the forces in different parts of the network were equal. This model simulates the mechanical behavior of ASM through of a network of dashpots and springs. This dashpot-spring mechanical coupling mimics the composition of the actomyosin machinery of ASM through the contraction of springs to a minimum length. We hypothesized that formation of covalent bonds, due to the FA action, can be represented in the model by a simple change in the elastic constant of the springs, while the action of methacholine (MCh) reduce the equilibrium length of the spring. A sigmoid curve of tension as a function of MCh doses was obtained, showing increased tension when the muscle strip was exposed to FA. Our simulations suggest that FA, at a concentration of 0.1 ppm, can affect the elastic properties of the smooth muscle ¯bers by a factor of 120%. We also analyze the dynamic mechanical properties, observing the viscous and elastic behavior of the network. Finally, the proposed model, although simple, incorporates the phenomenology of both MCh and FA and reproduces experimental results observed with in vitro exposure of smooth muscle to FA. Thus, this new mechanical approach incorporates several well know features of the contractile system of the cells in a tissue level model. The model can also be used in different biological scales.

Mechanical alterations in airway smooth muscle after interaction with indoor pollutant - A mathematical model

The viscoelasticity of mammalian lung is determined by the mechanical properties and structural regulation of the airway smooth muscle (ASM). The exposure to polluted air may deteriorate these properties with harmful consequences to individual health. Formaldehyde (FA) is an important indoor pollutant found among volatile organic compounds. This pollutant permeates through the smooth muscle tissue forming covalent bonds between proteins in the extracellular matrix and intracellular protein structure changing mechanical properties of ASM and inducing asthma symptoms, such as airway hyperresponsiveness, even at low concentrations. In the experimental scenario, the mechanical effect of FA is the stiffening of the tissue, but the mechanism behind this effect is not fully w1derstood. Thus, the aim of this study is to reproduce the mechanical behavior of the ASM, such as contraction and stretching, under FA action or not. For this, it was created a two-dimensional viscoelastic network model based on Voronoi tessellation solved using Runge-Kutta method of fourth order. The equilibrium configuration was reached when the forces in different parts of the network were equal. This model simulates the mechanical behavior of ASM through of a network of dashpots and springs. This dashpot-spring mechanical coupling mimics the composition of the actomyosin machinery of ASM through the contraction of springs to a minimum length. We hypothesized that formation of covalent bonds, due to the FA action, can be represented in the model by a simple change in the elastic constant of the springs, while the action of methacholinc (MCh) reduce the equilibrium length of the spring. A sigmoid curve of tension as a function of MCh doses was obtained, showing increased tension when the muscle strip was exposed to FA. Our simulations suggest that FA, at a concentration of 0.1 ppm, can affect the elastic properties of the smooth muscle fibers by a factor of 120%. We also analyze the dynamic mechanical properties, observing the viscous and elastic behavior of the network. Finally, the proposed model, although simple, ir1corporates the phenomenology of both MCh and FA and reproduces experirnental results observed with ir1 vitro exposure of smooth muscle to .FA. Thus, this new mechanical approach incorporates several well know features of the contractile system of the cells ir1 a tissue level model. The model can also be used in different biological scales.