On the impact of disproportional samples in credit scoring models: An application to a Brazilian bank data

Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989) and a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model (Cramer, 2004) applied to simulated data. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is no statistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity between the naive logistic regression models and the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models. However, there is strong difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these two statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MHD numerical simulations of colliding winds in massive binary systems - I. Thermal versus non-thermal radio emission

In the past few decades detailed observations of radio and X-ray emission from massive binary systems revealed a whole new physics present in such systems. Both thermal and non-thermal components of this emission indicate that most of the radiation at these bands originates in shocks. O and B-type stars and WolfRayet (WR) stars present supersonic and massive winds that, when colliding, emit largely due to the freefree radiation. The non-thermal radio and X-ray emissions are due to synchrotron and inverse Compton processes, respectively. In this case, magnetic fields are expected to play an important role in the emission distribution. In the past few years the modelling of the freefree and synchrotron emissions from massive binary systems have been based on purely hydrodynamical simulations, and ad hoc assumptions regarding the distribution of magnetic energy and the field geometry. In this work we provide the first full magnetohydrodynamic numerical simulations of windwind collision in massive binary systems. We study the freefree emission characterizing its dependence on the stellar and orbital parameters. We also study self-consistently the evolution of the magnetic field at the shock region, obtaining also the synchrotron energy distribution integrated along different lines of sight. We show that the magnetic field in the shocks is larger than that obtained when the proportionality between B and the plasma density is assumed. Also, we show that the role of the synchrotron emission relative to the total radio emission has been underestimated.

Influence of nutritional variables and obesity on health and metabolism

Influence of nutritional variables and obesity on health and metabolism Obesity is a recurring theme in current scientific literature. This can easily be explained by its exponential increase in all layers of society. The popularity of this subject has also given rise to associated questions, which have achieved greater prominence in health-related publications. In order to assess what has been studied in the field of obesity and nutrition, an overview of all articles published on these subjects in some of the main Brazilian scientific journals over the past two years was performed. Among the subthemes selected for this study, those related to childhood obesity attracted attention due to their greater frequency. These were subdivided into: prevalence, intrauterine and breastfeeding influences that may lead to the development of this condition, impact on quality of life, cardiovascular system and metabolism, and possible prevention strategies. Furthermore, issues related to obesity in adults were explored, such as risk factors and new strategies for prevention, with special attention given to the many studies evaluating different aspects of bariatric surgery. Finally, the subject of malnutrition and the impact of the deficiency of specific micronutrients such as selenium, vitamin D, and vitamin B12 were assessed. Based on the results, it was possible to assess the actual importance of obesity and nutrition in health maintenance, and also the several lines of research regarding these issues. Thus, it is essential to create new methods, which must be quick and efficient, to update health professionals involved in the treatment of obesity.

Inhibition of Aurora kinases enhances chemosensitivity to temozolomide and causes radiosensitization in glioblastoma cells

Glioblastoma remains one of the most devastating human malignancies, and despite therapeutic advances, there are no drugs that significantly improve the patient survival. Altered expression of the Aurora kinases was found in different malignancies, and their inhibition has been studied in cancer therapy. In this study, we analyzed the expression of Aurora A and Aurora B in glioblastoma samples and also analyzed whether the effects of Aurora kinase inhibition were associated with temozolomide or not on cell lines and primary cultures of glioblastoma. RT-PCR assays were used to determine the mRNA expression in glioblastoma tumor samples and in the cell lines. Cell proliferation was measured by XTT assay, and apoptosis was determined by flow cytometry. Drug combination analyses were made based in Chou-Talalay method. Gamma radiation for clonogenic survival used the doses of 2, 4 and 6 Gy. Changes in Aurora B level were assessed by Western blot analysis. Aurora A and B were expressed in glioblastoma samples as well as in the glioblastoma cell lines (n = 6). Moreover, ZM447439, a selective Aurora kinase inhibitor, decreased the proliferation separately and synergistically with temozolomide in primary cultures and cell lines of glioblastoma. ZM also enhanced the effects of radiation on the two cell lines studied (U343 and U251), mainly when associated with TMZ in U343 cells. Treatment with ZM induced apoptotic cell death and diminished Aurora B protein level. These data suggest that Aurora kinase inhibition may be a target for glioblastoma treatment and could be used as adjuvant to chemo- and radiotherapy.

Effects of MK-801 and amphetamine treatments on allergic lung inflammatory response in mice

Glutamate acts as a neurotransmitter within the Central Nervous System (CNS) and modifies immune cell activity. In lymphocytes, NMDA glutamate receptors regulate intracellular calcium, the production of reactive oxygen species and cytokine synthesis. MK-801, a NMDA receptor open-channel blocker, inhibits calcium entry into mast cells, thereby preventing mast cell degranulation. Several lines of evidence have shown the involvement of NMDA glutamate receptors in amphetamine (AMPH)-induced effects. AMPH treatment has been reported to modify allergic lung inflammation. This study evaluated the effects of MK-801 (0.25mg/kg) and AMPH (2.0mg/kg), given alone or in combination, on allergic lung inflammation in mice and the possible involvement of NMDA receptors in this process. In OVA-sensitized and challenged mice, AMPH and MK-801 given alone decreased cellular migration into the lung, reduced IL-13 and IL10 levels in BAL supernatant, reduced ICAM-1 and L-selectin expression in granulocytes in the BAL and decreased mast cell degranulation. AMPH treatment also decreased IL-5 levels. When both drugs were administered, treatment with MK-801 reversed the decrease in the number of eosinophils and neutrophils induced by AMPH in the BAL of OVA-sensitized and challenged mice as well as the effects on the expression of L-selectin and ICAM-1 in granulocytes, the IL-10, IL-5 and IL-13 levels in BAL supernatants and increased mast cell degranulation. At the same time, treatment with MK-801, AMPH or with MK-801+AMPH increased corticosterone serum levels in allergic mice. These results are discussed in light of possible indirect effects of AMPH and MK-801 via endocrine outflow from the CNS (i.e., HPA-axis activity) to the periphery and/or as a consequence of the direct action of these drugs on immune cell activity, with emphasis given to mast cell participation in the allergic lung response of mice.