The polysurvival model with long-term survivors

Long-term survival models have historically been considered for analyzing time-to-event data with long-term survivors fraction. However, situations in which a fraction (1 - p) of systems is subject to failure from independent competing causes of failure, while the remaining proportion p is cured or has not presented the event of interest during the time period of the study, have not been fully considered in the literature. In order to accommodate such situations, we present in this paper a new long-term survival model. Maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed as well as interval estimation and hypothesis tests. A real dataset illustrates the methodology.

Long-Term Follow-Up of Patients after Acute Kidney Injury: Patterns of Renal Functional Recovery

Background and Objectives: Patients who survive acute kidney injury (AKI), especially those with partial renal recovery, present a higher long-term mortality risk. However, there is no consensus on the best time to assess renal function after an episode of acute kidney injury or agreement on the definition of renal recovery. In addition, only limited data regarding predictors of recovery are available. Design, Setting, Participants, & Measurements: From 1984 to 2009, 84 adult survivors of acute kidney injury were followed by the same nephrologist (RCRMA) for a median time of 4.1 years. Patients were seen at least once each year after discharge until end stage renal disease (ESRD) or death. In each consultation serum creatinine was measured and glomerular filtration rate estimated. Renal recovery was defined as a glomerular filtration rate value >= 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. A multiple logistic regression was performed to evaluate factors independently associated with renal recovery. Results: The median length of follow-up was 50 months (30-90 months). All patients had stabilized their glomerular filtration rates by 18 months and 83% of them stabilized earlier: up to 12 months. Renal recovery occurred in 16 patients (19%) at discharge and in 54 (64%) by 18 months. Six patients died and four patients progressed to ESRD during the follow up period. Age (OR 1.09, p < 0.0001) and serum creatinine at hospital discharge (OR 2.48, p = 0.007) were independent factors associated with non renal recovery. The acute kidney injury severity, evaluated by peak serum creatinine and need for dialysis, was not associated with non renal recovery. Conclusions: Renal recovery must be evaluated no earlier than one year after an acute kidney injury episode. Nephrology referral should be considered mainly for older patients and those with elevated serum creatinine at hospital discharge.

The Real Importance of Pre-Existing Comorbidities on Long-Term Mortality after Acute Kidney Injury

Background: The causes of death on long-term mortality after acute kidney injury (AKI) have not been well studied. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the role of comorbidities and the causes of death on the long-term mortality after AKI. Methodology/Principal Findings: We retrospectively studied 507 patients who experienced AKI in 2005-2006 and were discharged free from dialysis. In June 2008 (median: 21 months after AKI), we found that 193 (38%) patients had died. This mortality is much higher than the mortality of the population of Sao Paulo City, even after adjustment for age. A multiple survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression model and showed that death was associated with Khan's index indicating high risk [adjusted hazard ratio 2.54 (1.38-4.66)], chronic liver disease [1.93 (1.15-3.22)], admission to non-surgical ward [1.85 (1.30-2.61)] and a second AKI episode during the same hospitalization [1.74 (1.12-2.71)]. The AKI severity evaluated either by the worst stage reached during AKI (P=0.20) or by the need for dialysis (P=0.12) was not associated with death. The causes of death were identified by a death certificate in 85% of the non-survivors. Among those who died from circulatory system diseases (the main cause of death), 59% had already suffered from hypertension, 34% from diabetes, 47% from heart failure, 38% from coronary disease, and 66% had a glomerular filtration rate <60 previous to the AKI episode. Among those who died from neoplasms, 79% already had the disease previously. Conclusions: Among AKI survivors who were discharged free from dialysis the increased long-term mortality was associated with their pre-existing chronic conditions and not with the severity of the AKI episode. These findings suggest that these survivors should have a medical follow-up after hospital discharge and that all efforts should be made to control their comorbidities.