The polysurvival model with long-term survivors

Long-term survival models have historically been considered for analyzing time-to-event data with long-term survivors fraction. However, situations in which a fraction (1 - p) of systems is subject to failure from independent competing causes of failure, while the remaining proportion p is cured or has not presented the event of interest during the time period of the study, have not been fully considered in the literature. In order to accommodate such situations, we present in this paper a new long-term survival model. Maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed as well as interval estimation and hypothesis tests. A real dataset illustrates the methodology.

Predictors of long-term survival among first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in a Brazilian stroke cohort

Abstract Background Few studies have examined both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke to identify prognostic factors associated to long-term stroke survival. We investigated long-term survival and predictors that could adversely influence ischemic and hemorrhagic first-ever stroke prognosis. Methods We prospectively ascertained 665 consecutive first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke cases from “The Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity” (The EMMA Study) in a community hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. We evaluated cardiovascular risk factors and sociodemographic characteristics (age, gender, race and educational level). Results We found a lower survival rate among hemorrhagic cases compared to ischemic stroke cases at the end of 4 years of follow-up (52% vs. 44%, p = 0.04). The risk of death was two times higher among people with ischemic stroke without formal education. Also, we found consistently higher risk of death for diabetics with ischemic stroke (HR = 1.45; 95% CI = 1.07-1.97) compared to no diabetics. As expected, age equally influenced on the high risk of poor survival, regardless of stroke subtype. Conclusions For ischemic stroke, the lack of formal education and diabetes were significant independent predictors of poor long-term survival.

A new long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework

In this paper, we proposed a new three-parameter long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard function, the long-term complementary exponential geometric distribution. The new distribution arises from latent competing risk scenarios, where the lifetime associated scenario, with a particular risk, is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks, and the presence of long-term survival. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability, hazard and quantile functions and order statistics. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum-likelihood approach. A simulation study assesses the performance of the estimation procedure. We compare the new distribution with its particular cases, as well as with the long-term Weibull distribution on three real data sets, observing its potential and competitiveness in comparison with some usual long-term lifetime distributions.

A Bayesian analysis of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson cure rate model

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the right-censored survival data when immune or cured individuals may be present in the population from which the data is taken. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which generalizes the Poisson distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a real data set are considered.

A Bayesian destructive weighted Poisson cure rate model and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this article, we propose a new Bayesian flexible cure rate survival model, which generalises the stochastic model of Klebanov et al. [Klebanov LB, Rachev ST and Yakovlev AY. A stochastic-model of radiation carcinogenesis - latent time distributions and their properties. Math Biosci 1993; 113: 51-75], and has much in common with the destructive model formulated by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)]. In our approach, the accumulated number of lesions or altered cells follows a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible than the promotion time cure model in terms of dispersion. Moreover, it possesses an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of the event of interest as it includes a destructive process of tumour cells after an initial treatment or the capacity of an individual exposed to irradiation to repair altered cells that results in cancer induction. In other words, what is recorded is only the damaged portion of the original number of altered cells not eliminated by the treatment or repaired by the repair system of an individual. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are then used to develop Bayesian inference for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a cutaneous melanoma data set analysed by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)] are presented.

De Novo Thrombotic Microangiopathy After Kidney Transplantation: Clinical Features, Treatment, and Long-Term Patient and Graft Survival

Introduction. Posttransplant thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA)/hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) can occur as a recurrent or de novo disease. Methods. A retrospective single-center observational study was applied in order to examine the incidence and outcomes of de novo TMA/HUS among transplantations performed between 2000 and 2010. Recurrent HUS or antibody-mediated rejections were excluded. Results. Seventeen (1.1%) among 1549 kidney transplant recipients fulfilled criteria for de novo TMA. The mean follow-up was 572 days (range, 69-1769). Maintenance immunosuppression was prednisone, tacrolimus (TAC), and mycophenolic acid in 14 (82%) patients. Mean age at onset was 40 +/- 15 years, and serum creatinine was 6.1 +/- 4.1 mg/dL. TMA occurred at a median of 25 days (range, 1-1755) after transplantation. Nine (53%) patients developed TMA within 1 month of transplantation and only 12% after 1 year. Clinical features were anemia (hemoglobin < 10 g/dL) in 9 (53%) patients, thrombocytopenia in 7 (41%), and increased lactate dehydrogenase in 12 (70%). Decreased haptoglobin was observed in 64% and schistocytes in 35%. Calcineurin inhibitor (CM) withdrawal or reduction was the first step in the management of 10/15 (66%) patients, and 6 (35%) received fresh frozen plasma (FFP) and/or plasmapheresis. TAC was successfully reintroduced in six patients after a median of 17 days. Eight (47%) patients needed dialytic support after TMA diagnosis and 75% remained on dialysis. At 4 years of follow-up, death-censored graft survival was worse for TMA group (43.0% versus 85.6%, log-rank = 0.001; hazard ratio = 3.74) and there was no difference in patient survival (53.1% versus 82.2%, log-rank = 0.24). Conclusion. De novo TMA after kidney transplantation is a rare but severe condition with poor graft outcomes. This syndrome may not be fully manifested, and clinical suspicion is essential for early diagnosis and treatment, based mainly in CM withdrawal and FFP infusions and/or plasmapheresis.

Evaluation of Long-Term Outcomes, Cytogenetic and Molecular Responses with Imatinib Mesylate in Early and Late Chronic-Phase Chronic Myeloid Leukemia: A Report from a Single Institute

Here we compare the management and survival outcomes of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients who had early or late imatinib mesylate (IM) therapy. The cytogenetic and molecular responses of 189 CML patients were analyzed. Of this group, 121 patients were classified as the early chronic phase (ECP) group and started IM within 12 months of diagnosis. The other 68 patients were classified as the late chronic phase (LCP) group who had been treated with interferon (IFN)-alpha-2 and crossed over to IM more than 12 months after diagnosis. The overall rates of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) at last follow-up were 83.6 and 78.1% in the ECP and LCP groups, respectively. The CCyR rates were 89.3 (for ECP patients) versus 73.5% (for LCP patients; p < 0.0001). At last follow-up, 82.4% ECP and 64.2% LCP patients had achieved an MMR (p < 0.0001). No significant differences were noted between the two groups with regard to survival outcomes. Our experience reveals that IM is an effective rescue therapy in most CML LCP patients who are intolerant or in whom IFN-alpha therapy fails. Such therapeutic options should be considered in LCP patients, particularly in countries where IM may not be available. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel

Different morphology, stage and treatment affect immune cell infiltration and long-term outcome in patients with non-small-cell lung carcinoma

Aims: Development of effective immune-based therapies for patients with non-small-cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) depends on an accurate characterization of complex interactions that occur between immune cells and the tumour environment. Methods and results: Innate and adaptive immune responses were evaluated in relation to prognosis in 65 patients with surgically excised NSCLC. Immunohistochemistry and morphometry were used to determine the abundance and distribution of immune cells. We found low numbers of immune cells and levels of cytokines in the tumour environment when compared with surrounding parenchyma. Smoking was associated inversely with the adaptive immune response and directly with innate immunity. We observed a prominent adaptive immune response in squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) but greater innate immune responses in adenocarcinomas and large cell carcinomas. Cox model analysis showed a low risk of death for smoking <41 packs/year, N-0 tambour stage, squamous carcinoma, CD4(+) > 16.81% and macrophages/monocytes >4.5%. Collectively, the data indicate that in NSCLC there is not a substantive local immune cell infiltrate within the tumour. Conclusion: Although immune cell infiltration is limited in NSCLC it appears to have an impact on prognosis and this may be of relevance for new immunotherapeutic approaches.

Long-Term Prospective Study of the Influence of Estrone Levels on Events in Postmenopausal Women with or at High Risk for Coronary Artery Disease

Background. The link between endogenous estrogen, coronary artery disease (CAD), and death in postmenopausal women is uncertain. We analyzed the association between death and blood levels of estrone in postmenopausal women with known coronary artery disease (CAD) or with a high-risk factor score for CAD. Methods. 251 postmenopausal women age 50-90 years not on estrogen therapy. Fasting blood for estrone and heart disease risk factors were collected at baseline. Women were grouped according to their estrone levels (<15 and >= 15 pg/mL). Fatal events were recorded after 5.8 perpendicular to 1.4 years of followup. Results. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed a significant trend (P = 0.039) of greater all-cause mortality in women with low estrone levels (< 15 pg/mL). Cox multivariate regression analysis model adjusted for body mass index, diabetes, dyslipidemia, family history, and estrone showed estrone (OR = 0.45; P = 0.038) as the only independent variable for all-cause mortality. Multivariate regression model adjusted for age, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, family history, and estrone showed that only age (OR = 1.06; P = 0.017) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. Conclusions. Postmenopausal women with known CAD or with a high-risk factor score for CAD and low estrone levels (< 15 pg/mL) had increased all-cause mortality.

Long-Term Follow-Up of Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator for Secondary Prevention in Chagas' Heart Disease

Assessing the efficacy of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD) in patients with Chagas' heart disease (ChHD) and identifying the clinical predictors of mortality and ICD shock during long-term follow-up. ChHD is associated with ventricular tachyarrhythmias and an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. Although ChHD is a common form of cardiomyopathy in Latin American ICD users, little is known about its efficacy in the treatment of this population. The study cohort included 116 consecutive patients with ChHD and an ICD implanted for secondary prevention. Of the 116 patients, 83 (72%) were men; the mean age was 54 +/- 10.7 years. Several clinical variables were tested in a multivariate Cox model for predicting long-term mortality. The average follow-up was 45 +/- 32 months. New York Heart Association class I-II developed in 83% of patients. The mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 42 +/- 16% at implantation. Of the 116 patients, 58 (50%) had appropriate shocks and 13 (11%) had inappropriate therapy. A total of 31 patients died (7.1% annual mortality rate). New York Heart Association class III (hazard ratio [HR] 3.09, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 6.96, p = 0.0064) was a predictor of a worse prognosis. The left ventricular ejection fraction (HR 0.972, 95% confidence interval 0.94 to 0.99, p = 0.0442) and low cumulative right ventricular pacing (HR 0.23, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 0.49, p = 0.0001) were predictors of better survival. The left ventricular diastolic diameter was an independent predictor of appropriate shock (I-ER 1.032, 95% confidence interval 1.004 to 1.060, p = 0.025). In conclusion, in a long-term follow-up, ICD efficacy for secondary sudden cardiac death prevention in patients with ChHD was marked by a favorable annual rate of all-cause mortality (7.1%); 50% of the cohort received appropriate shock therapy. New York Heart Association class III and left ventricular ejection fraction were independent predictors of worse prognosis, and low cumulative right ventricular pacing defined better survival. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2012;110:1040-1045)

Natriuretic Peptides and Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Severe Aortic Stenosis

Background and aim of the study: The natriuretic peptides, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and its N-terminal prohormone (NT-proBNP), can be used as diagnostic and prognostic markers for aortic stenosis (AS). However, the association between BNP, NT-proBNP, and long-term clinical outcomes in patients with severe AS remains uncertain. Methods: A total of 64 patients with severe AS was prospectively enrolled into the study, and underwent clinical and echocardiographic assessments at baseline. Blood samples were drawn for plasma BNP and NT-proBNP analyses. The primary outcome was death from any cause, through a six-year follow up period. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to examine the association between natriuretic peptides and long-term mortality, adjusting for important clinical factors. Results: During a mean period of 1,520 681 days, 51 patients (80%) were submitted to aortic valve replacement, and 13 patients (20%) were medically managed without surgical interventions. Mortality rates were 13.7% in the surgical group and 62% in the medically managed group (p <0.001). Patients with higher plasma BNP (>135 pg/ml) and NT-proBNP (>1,150 pg/ml) levels at baseline had a greater risk of long-term mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-9.1; HR 4.3, 95% CI 1.4-13.5, respectively). After adjusting for important covariates, both BNP and NT-proBNP remained independently associated with long-term mortality (HR 2.9, 95%CI 1.5-5.7; HR 1.8, 95%CI 1.1-3.1, respectively). Conclusion: In patients with severe AS, plasma BNP and NT-proBNP levels were associated with long-term mortality. The use of these biomarkers to guide treatment might represent an interesting approach that deserves further evaluation. The Journal of Heart Valve Disease 2012;21:331-336

The Real Importance of Pre-Existing Comorbidities on Long-Term Mortality after Acute Kidney Injury

Background: The causes of death on long-term mortality after acute kidney injury (AKI) have not been well studied. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the role of comorbidities and the causes of death on the long-term mortality after AKI. Methodology/Principal Findings: We retrospectively studied 507 patients who experienced AKI in 2005-2006 and were discharged free from dialysis. In June 2008 (median: 21 months after AKI), we found that 193 (38%) patients had died. This mortality is much higher than the mortality of the population of Sao Paulo City, even after adjustment for age. A multiple survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression model and showed that death was associated with Khan's index indicating high risk [adjusted hazard ratio 2.54 (1.38-4.66)], chronic liver disease [1.93 (1.15-3.22)], admission to non-surgical ward [1.85 (1.30-2.61)] and a second AKI episode during the same hospitalization [1.74 (1.12-2.71)]. The AKI severity evaluated either by the worst stage reached during AKI (P=0.20) or by the need for dialysis (P=0.12) was not associated with death. The causes of death were identified by a death certificate in 85% of the non-survivors. Among those who died from circulatory system diseases (the main cause of death), 59% had already suffered from hypertension, 34% from diabetes, 47% from heart failure, 38% from coronary disease, and 66% had a glomerular filtration rate <60 previous to the AKI episode. Among those who died from neoplasms, 79% already had the disease previously. Conclusions: Among AKI survivors who were discharged free from dialysis the increased long-term mortality was associated with their pre-existing chronic conditions and not with the severity of the AKI episode. These findings suggest that these survivors should have a medical follow-up after hospital discharge and that all efforts should be made to control their comorbidities.

Effectiveness of a long-term use of a minimalist footwear versus habitual shoe on pain, function and mechanical loads in knee osteoarthritis: a randomized controlled trial

Background: Recent studies have shown an important reduction of joint overload during locomotion in elderly women with knee osteoarthritis (OA) after short- term use of minimalist shoes. Our aim is to investigate the chronic effect of inexpensive and minimalist footwear on the clinical and functional aspects of OA and gait biomechanics of elderly women with knee OA. Methods/Design: Fifty-six elderly women with knee OA grade 2 or 3 (Kellgren and Lawrence) are randomized into blocks and allocated to either the intervention group, which will use flexible, non-heeled shoes-Moleca (R)-for six months for at least six hours daily, or the control group, which could not use these shoes. Neither group is undergoing physical therapy treatment throughout the intervention period. Moleca (R) is a women's double canvas, flexible, flat walking shoe without heels, with a 5-mm anti-slip rubber sole and a 3-mm internal wedge of ethylene vinyl acetate. Both groups will be followed for six months and will be assessed at baseline condition, after three months, and after six months (end of intervention). All the assessments will be performed by a physiotherapist that is blind to the group allocation. The primary outcome is the pain Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) score. The secondary outcomes are global WOMAC score; joint stiffness and disability WOMAC scores; knee pain with a visual analogue scale; walking distance in the six-minute walk test; Lequesne score; amount and frequency (number of days) of paracetamol (500 mg) intake over six months; knee adduction moment during gait; global medical assessment score; and global patient auto-assessment score. At baseline, all patients receive a diary to record the hours of daily use of the footwear intervention; every two weeks, the same physiotherapist makes phone calls to all patients in order to verify adherence to treatment. The statistical analysis will be based on intention to treat analysis, as well as general linear models of analysis of variance for repeated measure to detect treatment-time interactions (alpha = 5%). Discussion: This is the first randomized, clinical trial protocol to assess the chronic effect of minimalist footwear on the clinical and functional aspects and gait biomechanics of elderly women with knee osteoarthritis. We expect that the use of Moleca (R) shoes for six months will provide pain relief, reduction of the knee adduction moment when walking, and improve joint function in elderly women with knee OA, and that the treatment, thus, can be considered another inexpensive and easy-to-use option for conservative OA treatment.

Acute inhibition of excessive mitochondrial fission after myocardial infarction prevents long-term cardiac dysfunction

BACKGROUND: Ischemia and reperfusion (IR) injury remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality and multiple molecular and cellular pathways have been implicated in this injury. We determined whether acute inhibition of excessive mitochondrial fission at the onset of reperfusion improves mitochondrial dysfunction and cardiac contractility postmyocardial infarction in rats. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a selective inhibitor of the fission machinery, P110, which we have recently designed. P110 treatment inhibited the interaction of fission proteins Fis1/Drp1, decreased mitochondrial fission, and improved bioenergetics in three different rat models of IR, including primary cardiomyocytes, ex vivo heart model, and an in vivo myocardial infarction model. Drp1 transiently bound to the mitochondria following IR injury and P110 treatment blocked this Drp1 mitochondrial association. Compared with control treatment, P110 (1 μmol/L) decreased infarct size by 28 ± 2% and increased adenosine triphosphate levels by 70+1% after IR relative to control IR in the ex vivo model. Intraperitoneal injection of P110 (0.5 mg/kg) at the onset of reperfusion in an in vivo model resulted in improved mitochondrial oxygen consumption by 68% when measured 3 weeks after ischemic injury, improved cardiac fractional shortening by 35%, reduced mitochondrial H2O2 uncoupling state by 70%, and improved overall mitochondrial functions. CONCLUSIONS: Together, we show that excessive mitochondrial fission at reperfusion contributes to long-term cardiac dysfunction in rats and that acute inhibition of excessive mitochondrial fission at the onset of reperfusion is sufficient to result in long-term benefits as evidenced by inhibiting cardiac dysfunction 3 weeks after acute myocardial infarction.