Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdos-Renyi (ER), Barabasi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.

Behaviour of displacement piles in sand under cyclic axial loading

Field experiments have demonstrated that piles driven into sand can respond to axial cyclic loading in Stable, Unstable or Meta-Stable ways, depending on the combinations of mean and cyclic loads and the number of cycles. An understanding of the three styles of responses is provided by experiments involving a highly instrumented model displacement pile and an array of soil stress sensors installed in fine sand in a pressurised calibration chamber. The different patterns of effective stress developing on and around the shaft are reported, along with the results of static load tests that track the effects on shaft capacity. The interpretation links these observations to the sand's stress strain behaviour. The interface-shear characteristics, the kinematic yielding, the local densification, the growth of a fractured interface-shear zone and the restrained dilatancy at the pile soil interface are all found to be important. The model tests are shown to be compatible with the full-scale behaviour and to provide key information for improving the modelling and the design rules. (C) 2012 The Japanese Geotechnical Society. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The relationship between gamma Cassiopeiae's X-ray emission and its circumstellar environment

gamma Cas is the prototypical classical Be star and is recently best known for its variable hard X-ray emission. To elucidate the reasons for this emission, we mounted a multiwavelength campaign in 2010 centered around four XMM-Newton observations. The observational techniques included long baseline optical interferometry (LBOI) from two instruments at CHARA, photometry carried out by an automated photometric telescope and H alpha observations. Because gamma Cas is also known to be in a binary, we measured radial velocities from the H alpha line and redetermined its period as 203.55 +/- 0.20 days and its eccentricity as near zero. The LBOI observations suggest that the star's decretion disk was axisymmetric in 2010, has an system inclination angle near 45 degrees, and a larger radius than previously reported. In addition, the Be star began an "outburst" at the beginning of our campaign, made visible by a brightening and reddening of the disk during our campaign and beyond. Our analyses of the new high resolution spectra disclosed many attributes also found from spectra obtained in 2001 (Chandra) and 2004 (XMM-Newton). As well as a dominant hot (approximate to 14 keV) thermal component, the familiar attributes included: (i) a fluorescent feature of Fe K even stronger than observed at previous times; (ii) strong lines of N VII and Ne XI lines indicative of overabundances; and (iii) a subsolar Fe abundance from K-shell lines but a solar abundance from L-shell ions. We also found that two absorption columns are required to fit the continuum. While the first one maintained its historical average of 1 x 10(21) cm(-2), the second was very large and doubled to 7.4 x 10(23) cm(-2) during our X-ray observations. Although we found no clear relation between this column density and orbital phase, it correlates well with the disk brightening and reddening both in the 2010 and earlier observations. Thus, the inference from this study is that much (perhaps all?) of the X-ray emission from this source originates behind matter ejected by gamma Cas into our line of sight.