Complexity of inferences in polytree-shaped semi-qualitative probabilistic networks

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provade a very Complexity of inferences in polytree-shaped semi-qualitative probabilistic networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the bayesian networks. This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that interferences can be performed in time linear in the number of nodes if there is a single observed node. Because our proof is construtive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynominal-time algorithm for SQPn. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

Aging reduces complexity of heart rate variability assessed by conditional entropy and symbolic analysis

Increasing age is associated with a reduction in overall heart rate variability as well as changes in complexity of physiologic dynamics. The aim of this study was to verify if the alterations in autonomic modulation of heart rate caused by the aging process could be detected by Shannon entropy (SE), conditional entropy (CE) and symbolic analysis (SA). Complexity analysis was carried out in 44 healthy subjects divided into two groups: old (n = 23, 63 +/- A 3 years) and young group (n = 21, 23 +/- A 2). It was analyzed SE, CE [complexity index (CI) and normalized CI (NCI)] and SA (0V, 1V, 2LV and 2ULV patterns) during short heart period series (200 cardiac beats) derived from ECG recordings during 15 min of rest in a supine position. The sequences characterized by three heart periods with no significant variations (0V), and that with two significant unlike variations (2ULV) reflect changes in sympathetic and vagal modulation, respectively. The unpaired t test (or Mann-Whitney rank sum test when appropriate) was used in the statistical analysis. In the aging process, the distributions of patterns (SE) remain similar to young subjects. However, the regularity is significantly different; the patterns are more repetitive in the old group (a decrease of CI and NCI). The amounts of pattern types are different: 0V is increased and 2LV and 2ULV are reduced in the old group. These differences indicate marked change of autonomic regulation. The CE and SA are feasible techniques to detect alteration in autonomic control of heart rate in the old group.

Sets of probability distributions, independence, and convexity

This paper analyzes concepts of independence and assumptions of convexity in the theory of sets of probability distributions. The starting point is Kyburg and Pittarelli's discussion of "convex Bayesianism" (in particular their proposals concerning E-admissibility, independence, and convexity). The paper offers an organized review of the literature on independence for sets of probability distributions; new results on graphoid properties and on the justification of "strong independence" (using exchangeability) are presented. Finally, the connection between Kyburg and Pittarelli's results and recent developments on the axiomatization of non-binary preferences, and its impact on "complete" independence, are described.