24 resultados para J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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This study uses the global Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Jason-1 altimeters` time series to estimate the 13-yr trend in sea surface height anomaly. These trends are estimated at each grid point by two methods: one fits a straight line to the time series and the other is based on the difference between the average height between the two halves of the time series. In both cases the trend shows large regional variability, mostly where the intense western boundary currents turn. The authors hypothesize that the regional variability of the sea surface height trends leads to changes in the local geostrophic transport. This in turn affects the instability-related processes that generate mesoscale eddies and enhances the Rossby wave signals. This hypothesis is verified by estimates of the trend of the amplitude of the filtered sea surface height anomaly that contains the spectral bands associated with Rossby waves and mesoscale eddies. The authors found predominantly positive tendency in the amplitude of Rossby waves and eddies, which suggests that, on average, these events are becoming more energetic. In some regions, the variation in amplitude over 13 yr is comparable to the standard deviation of the data and is statistically significant according to both methods employed in this study. It is plausible that in this case, the energy is transferred from the mean currents to the waves and eddies through barotropic and baroclinic instability processes that are more pronounced in the western boundary current extension regions. If these heat storage patterns and trends are confirmed on longer time series, then it will be justified to argue that the warming trend of the last century provides the energy that amplifies both Rossby waves and mesoscale eddies.

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Dental lesions represent about 1% of oral cavity tumors being ameloblastoma the most common one. It is a tumor of epithelial origin that mainly affects the jaw, and less commonly the maxilla. Its clinical presentation is that of an asymptomatic slow-growing tumor. Despite being a benign tumor, it has an invasive behavior with a high rate of recurrence if not treated properly. Objective: To describe the cases of ameloblastoma in a reference department. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 40 cases. The variables analyzed were: age, gender, ethnicity, tumor location, type of treatment, complications and recurrence. Results: The most affected gender was male - 21 cases (52.5%); with a predominance of Caucasians - 24 cases (60%). The mean age was 35.45 years; the most common location was in.the jaw - 37 cases (92.5%). Facial asymmetry was the most frequent complaint. Of the 40 cases, 33 were submitted to surgery. Of those submitted to surgery, 24 (72.72%) underwent segmental resection, with recurrence in 4 (12.12%) cases. Conclusion: Ameloblastoma may relapse when treatment is not performed with broad surgical resection of the lesion with wide safety margins.

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Objectives: To identify levels, tendency and recent differentials in fertility in Curitiba, Brazil. Methods: It is a quantitative and temporal series study, in which the birth rates, general and total fertility indicators, for the period of 1995-2007, were calculated and analyzed in Curitiba, Brazil, as well as the proportion of women with high fertility in 2005-2007, compared to the state of Parana. In order to evaluate inner regional differences in the city of Curitiba the same rates were calculated for each one of the administrative districts in the capital. Results: It was noticed a tendency of decline in fertility rates in Curitiba. The total fertility rate in 2007 was 1.49 children per woman and 1.66 in Parana state. The proportion of women with high fertility in the interior of Parana was 1.8 times higher than in the capital. The analysis of fertility rates by districts in Curitiba pointed out important differences: only 10 out of 75 districts had total fertility rates higher than 2.1 children per woman, and 9 districts concentrated 59.6% of women with high fertility. Conclusions: Curitiba showed a quick and sharp reduction in fertility rates. However, the inner regional differences in the city suggests the need to devise actions of reproductive health and social measures, directed to specific groups of population.

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The urbanization of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil has been related to environmental changes, migration, interaction and spread of sylvatic reservoirs and infected dogs to areas with no transmission, and adaptation of the vector Lutzomyia longipalpis to the peridomiciliary environment. From 1980 to 2005, Brazil recorded 59,129 cases of visceral leishmaniasis, 82.5% of which in the Northeast region. Visceral leishmaniasis gradually spread to other regions of the country: in 1998 these other regions reported 15% of all cases, but by 2005 this proportion had increased to 44%. From 1998 to 2005, indigenous cases were reported in 1,904 different municipalities of the country (34.2%). Reservoir and vector control pose major challenges for disease control, since there is a need for better knowledge of vector behavior in urban areas, and control activities involve high operational costs. In recent years the Brazilian Ministry of Health has supported research on the laboratory diagnosis of infection and disease in humans and dogs, treatment of patients, evaluation of the effectiveness of control strategies, and development of new technologies that could contribute to the surveillance and control of visceral leishmaniasis in the country.

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Objective To investigate risk factors associated with the acquisition of antibodies against Plasmodium vivax Duffy binding protein (PvDBP) a leading malaria vaccine candidate in a well-consolidated agricultural settlement of the Brazilian Amazon Region and to determine the sequence diversity of the PvDBP ligand domain (DBPII) within the local malaria parasite population. Methods Demographic, epidemiological and clinical data were collected from 541 volunteers using a structured questionnaire. Malaria parasites were detected by conventional microscopy and PCR, and blood collection was used for antibody assays and molecular characterisation of DBPII. Results The frequency of malaria infection was 7% (6% for P. vivax and 1% for P. falciparum), with malaria cases clustered near mosquito breeding sites. Nearly 50% of settlers had anti-PvDBP IgG antibodies, as detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with subjects age being the only strong predictor of seropositivity to PvDBP. Unexpectedly, low levels of DBPII diversity were found within the local malaria parasites, suggesting the existence of low gene flow between P. vivax populations, probably due to the relative isolation of the studied settlement. Conclusion The recognition of PvDBP by a significant proportion of the community, associated with low levels of DBPII diversity among local P. vivax, reinforces the variety of malaria transmission patterns in communities from frontier settlements. Such studies should provide baseline information for antimalarial vaccines now in development.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of asthma and risk factors associated in children and adolescents. METHODS: Population-based cross-sectional study with 1,185 female and male children and adolescents carried out in the city of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from 2008 to 2009. Data were collected through home interviews. Respondents were selected from two-stage (census tract, household) cluster random sampling stratified by gender and age. Multiple Poisson regression was used in the adjusted analysis between the outcome and socioeconomic, demographic, lifestyle and health condition variables. RESULTS: Of all respondents, 9.1% (95%CI 7.0; 11.7) reported asthma. After adjustment, the following variables were found independently associated with asthma: age (0 to 4 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 3.18, 95%CI 1.20;8.42); age (5 to 9 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 6.37, 95%CI 2.64;15.39); age (10 to 14 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 4.51,95%CI 1.95;10.40); allergy (yes vs. no) (PR 2.22, 95%CI 1.24;4.00); rhinitis (yes vs. no) (PR 2.13, 95%CI 1.22;3.73); health conditions in the 15 days preceding the interview (yes vs. no) (PR 1.96, 95%CI 1.23;3.11); number of rooms in the household (1 to 3 vs. 4 and more) (PR 1.67, 95%CI 1.05;2.66); and skin color (black and mixed vs. white) (PR 2.00, 95%CI 1.14;3.49). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the importance of factors associated with asthma including rhinitis and allergy; age between 5 to 9 years old; black and mixed skin color; and household with few rooms. Frequent health problems are seen as a common consequence of asthma.

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Although low- and middle-income countries still bear the burden of major infectious diseases, chronic noncommunicable diseases are becoming increasingly common due to rapid demographic, epidemiologic, and nutritional transitions. However, information is generally scant in these countries regarding chronic disease incidence, social determinants, and risk factors. The Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) aims to contribute relevant information with respect to the development and progression of clinical and subclinical chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. In this report, the authors delineate the study's objectives, principal methodological features, and timeline. At baseline, ELSA-Brasil enrolled 15,105 civil servants from 5 universities and 1 research institute. The baseline examination (2008-2010) included detailed interviews, clinical and anthropometric examinations, an oral glucose tolerance test, overnight urine collection, a 12-lead resting electrocardiogram, measurement of carotid intima-media thickness, echocardiography, measurement of pulse wave velocity, hepatic ultrasonography, retinal fundus photography, and an analysis of heart rate variability. Long-term biologic sample storage will allow investigation of biomarkers that may predict cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Annual telephone surveillance, initiated in 2009, will continue for the duration of the study. A follow-up examination is scheduled for 2012-2013.

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BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of depression and anxiety disorders in hospitalized patients at the dermatology ward at a university hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of mood and anxiety disorders in hospitalized patients at the dermatology ward at a university hospital in Sao Paulo. METHOD: A total of 75 patients, men and women, aged between 18 and 76 years, took part in the research. The study employed a descriptive, cross sectional and correlational method. The data was collected by means of a social demographic questionnaire and the PRIME-MD. RESULTS: It was found that 45.3 percent of the subjects presented with depressive symptoms, and 52 percent presented with symptoms of anxiety and that this survey showed moderate and high significant correlations (p<0,01; r= 0,616) for depression and anxiety. CONCLUSION: These facts could evidence the relationship between physical and psyche, just as the literature presents.

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In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect that environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic factors have on dengue mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean. To that end, we conducted an observational ecological study, analyzing data collected between 1995 and 2009. Dengue mortality rates were highest in the Caribbean (Spanish-speaking and non-Spanish-speaking). Multivariate analysis through Poisson regression revealed that the following factors were independently associated with dengue mortality: time since identification of endemicity (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 3.2 [for each 10 years]); annual rainfall (aRR = 1.5 [for each 10(3) L/m(2)]); population density (aRR = 2.1 and 3.2 for 20-120 inhabitants/km(2) and > 120 inhabitants/km(2), respectively); Human Development Index > 0.83 (aRR = 0.4); and circulation of the dengue 2 serotype (aRR = 1.7). These results highlight the important role that environmental, demographic, socioeconomic, and biological factors have played in increasing the severity of dengue in recent decades.

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Although there are a large number of studies focused on binge drinking and traffic risk behaviors (TRB), little is known regarding low levels of alcohol consumption and its association to TRB. The aim of this cross-sectional study is to examine the association of low to moderate alcohol intake pattern and TRB in college students in Brazil. 7037 students from a National representative sample were selected under rigorous inclusion criteria. All study participants voluntarily fulfilled a structured, anonymous, and self-questionnaire regarding alcohol and drug use, social-demographic data, and TRB. Alcohol was assessed according to the average number of alcoholic units consumed on standard occasions over the past 12 months. The associations between alcohol intake and TRB were summarized with odds ratio and their confidence interval obtained from logistic regression. Compared with abstainers students who consumed only one alcohol unit had the risk of being a passenger in a car driven by a drunk driver increased by almost four times, students who reported using five or more units were increased by almost five times the risk of being involved in a car crash. Compared with students who consumed one alcohol unit, the risk of driving under the influence of alcohol increased four times in students using three alcohol units. Age group, use of illicit drugs, employment status, gender, and marital status significantly influenced occurrence of TRB among college students. Our study highlights the potential detrimental effects of low and moderate pattern of alcohol consumption and its relation to riding with an intoxicated driver and other TRB. These data suggest that targeted interventions should be implemented in order to prevent negative consequences due to alcohol use in this population. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved,

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The historical and cultural characteristics reflect the Brazilian population. Elderly blacks are disadvantaged in socio-economic and demographic, clinical, functional and psychosocial aspects, reducing their social autonomy and functional independence. The decline in functional status due to variables associated with age and ethnicity can contribute to disabling events, such as falls. Socio-demographic, clinical and functional aspects related to falls were analyzed; Mobility, functional status and cognition were measured, with a statistical significance of pd '' 0.05. The sample of 196 elderly people was 48.5% white, 28% brown, 23.5% black, with an average of 69.9 years. There was reduced mobility classified as a medium risk for falls in 60% (p<0.013) among the elderly. With reference to groups analyzed, there were significant differences between variables for family income (p < 0.029), the occurrence of falls (p < 0.006), fear of falls (p < 0.023) and near-falls (p < 0.000). Blacks fall more often (p < 0.03). Statistical significance was revealed between ethnicity and self-reported occurrence of falls, fear of falling and the occurrence of near-falls, functional limitation and medium risk falls due to reduced mobility, with increased frequency of falls for elderly blacks.

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Background: The combined effect of diabetes and stroke on disability and mortality remains largely unexplored in Brazil and Latin America. Previous studies have been based primarily on data from developed countries. This study addresses the empirical gap by evaluating the combined impact of diabetes and stroke on disability and mortality in Brazil. Methods: The sample was drawn from two waves of the Survey on Health and Well-being of the Elderly, which followed 2,143 older adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 2000 to 2006. Disability was assessed via measures of activities of daily living (ADL) limitations, severe ADL limitations, and receiving assistance to perform these activities. Logistic and multinomial regression models controlling for sociodemographic and health conditions were used to address the influence of diabetes and stroke on disability and mortality. Results: By itself, the presence of diabetes did not increase the risk of disability or the need for assistance; however, diabetes was related to increased risks when assessed in combination with stroke. After controlling for demographic, social and health conditions, individuals who had experienced stroke but not diabetes were 3.4 times more likely to have ADL limitations than those with neither condition (95% CI 2.26-5.04). This elevated risk more than doubled for those suffering from a combination of diabetes and stroke (OR 7.34, 95% CI 3.73-14.46). Similar effects from the combination of diabetes and stroke were observed for severe ADL limitations (OR 19.75, 95% CI 9.81-39.76) and receiving ADL assistance (OR 16.57, 95% CI 8.39-32.73). Over time, older adults who had experienced a stroke were at higher risk of remaining disabled (RRR 4.28, 95% CI 1.53, 11.95) and of mortality (RRR 3.42, 95% CI 1.65, 7.09). However, risks were even higher for those who had experienced both diabetes and stroke. Diabetes was associated with higher mortality. Conclusions: Findings indicate that a combined history of stroke and diabetes has a great impact on disability prevalence and mortality among older adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

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Objective: To estimate the frequency of anaemia in pregnant women before and after the fortification of flours with Fe. Design: Retrospective study developed from secondary data obtained from medical records. Setting: Two health units in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Subjects: Socio-economic, demographic, obstetric and Hb concentration data were collected of 778 pregnant women attending prenatal care. Two study groups were created: the first referred to the period before fortification (G1, n 391), including women whose parturition happened before June 2004; and the second referred to the period after fortification (G2, n 387), including women whose last menstrual cycle happened after June 2005. The Hb cut-off point adopted for anaemia diagnosis was <11.0 g/dl. Results: In linear regression models, when Hb concentration was expressed as a dependent variable, women in G2 presented Hb concentration 0.26 g/dl and 0.36 g/dl higher during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy, respectively, compared with G1. In logistic regression models where the dependent variable was anaemia during the second and third trimesters, it was verified that being a member of G2 was a protective factor against anaemia in the third trimester. Regarding the presence of anaemia at any gestational moment, it was verified that being a member of G2 represented a protective factor against anaemia during pregnancy. Conclusions: Results indicate the protective effect of the fortification of flours with Fe in the fight against gestational anaemia, contributing to prevention and control of this nutritional disorder among pregnant women.

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The scope of this paper is to describe the work of manual sugarcane harvesters, assessing the nutritional behavior and body composition between the beginning and the end of the harvest. A descriptive longitudinal study was made of harvesters in Piracicaba, Sao Paulo, Brazil, who answered a socio-demographic questionnaire and authorized measurement of Body Mass Index, Body Fat Percentage and Arm Muscle Circumference at three stages. Creatine kinase on the skeletal isoform, C-reactive protein and plasma urea were measured at the end of the harvest. Thirty male migrant harvesters with ages ranging from 18 to 44 from the Northeast (Ceara) were assessed over a nine-month period. The workers suffered significant body fat and weight loss in the first half of the harvest. Eighteen workers had abnormal levels of creatine kinase and four - out of 24 who had donated blood - had altered urea levels. Sugarcane harvesting work causes weight and body fat loss and gains in the lean body mass index, which suffers wear-out when working on consecutive harvests. It can also cause changes in biochemical markers of chronic systemic inflammation. Further studies will make it possible to comprehend the relationships between stress, wear-out, labor longevity and health in sugarcane harvesting.

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Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) has been applied throughout the world in different sectors and in various ways. This paper reports on results of a PhD research on SEA applied to tourism development planning, reflecting the situation in mid-2010. First, the extent of tourism specific SEA application world-wide is established. Then, based on a review of the quality of 10 selected SEA reports, good practice, as well as challenges, trends and opportunities for tourism specific SEA are identified. Shortcomings of SEA in tourism planning are established and implications for future research are outlined. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.