Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

Spatial clusters of suicide in the municipality of Sao Paulo 1996-2005: an ecological study

Background: In a classical study, Durkheim mapped suicide rates, wealth, and low family density and realized that they clustered in northern France. Assessing others variables, such as religious society, he constructed a framework for the analysis of the suicide, which still allows international comparisons using the same basic methodology. The present study aims to identify possible significantly clusters of suicide in the city of Sao Paulo, and then, verify their statistical associations with socio-economic and cultural characteristics. Methods: A spatial scan statistical test was performed to analyze the geographical pattern of suicide deaths of residents in the city of Sao Paulo by Administrative District, from 1996 to 2005. Relative risks and high and/or low clusters were calculated accounting for gender and age as co-variates, were analyzed using spatial scan statistics to identify geographical patterns. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations with socioeconomic variables, considering, the spatial cluster of high suicide rates as the response variable. Drawing from Durkheim's original work, current World Health Organization (WHO) reports and recent reviews, the following independent variables were considered: marital status, income, education, religion, and migration. Results: The mean suicide rate was 4.1/100,000 inhabitant-years. Against this baseline, two clusters were identified: the first, of increased risk (RR = 1.66), comprising 18 districts in the central region; the second, of decreased risk (RR = 0.78), including 14 districts in the southern region. The downtown area toward the southwestern region of the city displayed the highest risk for suicide, and though the overall risk may be considered low, the rate climbs up to an intermediate level in this region. One logistic regression analysis contrasted the risk cluster (18 districts) against the other remaining 78 districts, testing the effects of socioeconomic-cultural variables. The following categories of proportion of persons within the clusters were identified as risk factors: singles (OR = 2.36), migrants (OR = 1.50), Catholics (OR = 1.37) and higher income (OR = 1.06). In a second logistic model, likewise conceived, the following categories of proportion of persons were identified as protective factors: married (OR = 0.49) and Evangelical (OR = 0.60). Conclusions: This risk/ protection profile is in accordance with the interpretation that, as a social phenomenon, suicide is related to social isolation. Thus, the classical framework put forward by Durkheim seems to still hold, even though its categorical expression requires re-interpretation.

Clinical prognostic indicators of dysphagia following prolonged orotracheal intubation in ICU patients

Introduction The development of postextubation wallowing dysfunction is well documented in the literature with high prevalence in most studies. However, there are relatively few studies with specific outcomes that focus on the follow-up of these patients until hospital discharge. The purpose of our study was to determine prognostic indicators of dysphagia in ICU patients submitted to prolonged orotracheal intubation (OTI). Methods We conducted a retrospective, observational cohort study from 2010 to 2012 of all patients over 18 years of age admitted to a university hospital ICU who were submitted to prolonged OTI and subsequently received a bedside swallow evaluation (BSE) by a speech pathologist. The prognostic factors analyzed included dysphagia severity rate at the initial swallowing assessment and at hospital discharge, age, time to initiate oral feeding, amount of individual treatment, number of orotracheal intubations, intubation time and length of hospital stay. Results After we excluded patients with neurologic diseases, tracheostomy, esophageal dysphagia and those who were submitted to surgical procedures involving the head and neck, our study sample size was 148 patients. The logistic regression model was used to examine the relationships between independent variables. In the univariate analyses, we found that statistically significant prognostic indicators of dysphagia included dysphagia severity rate at the initial swallowing assessment, time to initiate oral feeding and amount of individual treatment. In the multivariate analysis, we found that dysphagia severity rate at the initial swallowing assessment remained associated with good treatment outcomes. Conclusions Studies of prognostic indicators in different populations with dysphagia can contribute to the design of more effective procedures when evaluating, treating, and monitoring individuals with this type of disorder. Additionally, this study stresses the importance of the initial assessment ratings.

Role of Two Clusters of Male Alcoholics in Treatment Retention

Aims: This study aimed to classify alcohol-dependent outpatients on the basis of clinical factors and to verify if the resulting types show different treatment retention. Methods: The sample comprised 332 alcoholics that were enrolled in three different pharmacological trials carried out at Sao Paulo University, Brazil. Based on four clinical factors problem drinking onset age, familial alcoholism, alcohol dependence severity, and depression - K-means cluster analysis was performed by using the average silhouette width to determine the number of clusters. A direct logistic regression was performed to analyze the influence of clusters, medication groups, and Alcoholics Anonymous ( AA) attendance in treatment retention. Results: Two clusters were delineated. The cluster characterized by earlier onset age, more familial alcoholism, higher alcoholism severity, and less depression symptoms showed a higher chance of discontinuing the treatment, independently of medications used and AA attendance. Participation in AA was significantly related to treatment retention. Discussion: Health services should broaden the scope of services offered to meet heterogeneous needs of clients, and identify treatment practices and therapists which improve retention. Information about patients' characteristics linked to dropout should be used to make treatment programs more responsive and attractive, combining pharmacological agents with more intensive and diversified psychosocial interventions. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel

Sensory phenomena associated with repetitive behaviors in obsessive-compulsive disorder: An exploratory study of 1001 patients

A substantial number of patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) report compulsions that are preceded not by obsessions but by subjective experiences known as sensory phenomena. This study aimed to investigate the frequency, severity, and age at onset of sensory phenomena in OCD, as well as to compare OCD patients with and without sensory phenomena in terms of clinical characteristics. We assessed 1,001 consecutive OCD patients, using instruments designed to evaluate the frequency/severity of OC symptoms, tics, anxiety, depression, level of insight and presence/severity of sensory phenomena. All together, 651 (65.0%) subjects reported at least one type of sensory phenomena preceding the repetitive behaviors. Considering the sensory phenomena subtypes, 371 (57.0%) patients had musculoskeletal sensations, 519 (79.7%) had externally triggered "just-right" perceptions, 176 (27.0%) presented internally triggered "just right," 144 (22.1%) had an "energy release," and 240 (36.9%) patients had an "urge only" phenomenon. Sensory phenomena were described as being as more severe than were obsessions by 102(15.7%) patients. Logistic regression analysis showed that the following characteristics were associated with the presence of sensory phenomena: higher frequency and greater severity of the symmetry/ordering/arranging and contamination/washing symptom dimensions; comorbid Tourette syndrome, and a family history of tic disorders. These data suggest that sensory phenomena constitute a poorly understood psychopathological aspect of OCD that merits further investigation. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early Rheumatoid Arthritis in Latin America: Low Socioeconomic Status Related to High Disease Activity at Baseline

Objective. To determine the influence of socioeconomic factors on disease activity in a Latin American (LA) early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) multinational inception cohort at baseline. Methods. Clinical evaluation, ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), 4-variable Disease Activity Score in 28 joints using the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR), Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) disability index (DI), and erosions were recorded in 1,093 patients with early RA (<1 year from onset). Multivariate analyses evaluated influences of sex, age, marital status, education, medical coverage, SES, and ethnicity on HAQ DI, DAS28-ESR, and presence of erosions. Results. Ethnicities included 43% Mestizo, 31% Caucasian, 19% African LA, 4% Amerindian, and 3% other. Fifty-eight percent were of low/low-middle SES, 42% had <8 years of education, 21% had no medical coverage, median disease duration was 6 months (25th, 75th percentiles 4, 9 months), median HAQ DI score was 1.25 (25th, 75th percentiles 0.63, 2.00), median DAS28-ESR score was 6.2 (25th, 75th percentiles 4.9, 7.2), and 25% had erosions. Women and Mestizos, African LA, and Amerindians had earlier onset than men or Caucasians (P < 0.01). When adjusted by country, the analysis of covariance model showed that low/low-middle SES, female sex, partial coverage, and older age were associated with worse HAQ DI scores; only low/low-middle SES was associated with higher DAS28 scores. Statistically significant differences were found in HAQ DI and DAS28 scores between countries. When excluding country, low/low-middle SES, female sex, and no coverage were associated with worse HAQ DI and DAS28 scores, whereas separated/divorced/widowed status was associated with worse HAQ DI scores and age was associated with worse DAS28 scores. Logistic regression showed that older age, no coverage, and the Amerindian and other ethnic groups were associated with erosions. Conclusion. We compared early RA patients from the main LA ethnic groups. Our findings suggest that low/low-middle SES is important in determining disease activity. A more genetic-related background for erosions is possible.

Risk factors for magnetic resonance imaging-detected patellofemoral and tibiofemoral cartilage loss during a six-month period: The Joints On Glucosamine study

Objective To assess several baseline risk factors that may predict patellofemoral and tibiofemoral cartilage loss during a 6-month period. Methods For 177 subjects with chronic knee pain, 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of both knees was performed at baseline and followup. Knees were semiquantitatively assessed, evaluating cartilage morphology, subchondral bone marrow lesions, meniscal morphology/extrusion, synovitis, and effusion. Age, sex, and body mass index (BMI), bone marrow lesions, meniscal damage/extrusion, synovitis, effusion, and prevalent cartilage damage in the same subregion were evaluated as possible risk factors for cartilage loss. Logistic regression models were applied to predict cartilage loss. Models were adjusted for age, sex, treatment, and BMI. Results Seventy-nine subregions (1.6%) showed incident or worsening cartilage damage at followup. None of the demographic risk factors was predictive of future cartilage loss. Predictors of patellofemoral cartilage loss were effusion, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 3.5 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.39.4), and prevalent cartilage damage in the same subregion with an adjusted OR of 4.3 (95% CI 1.314.1). Risk factors for tibiofemoral cartilage loss were baseline meniscal extrusion (adjusted OR 3.6 [95% CI 1.310.1]), prevalent bone marrow lesions (adjusted OR 4.7 [95% CI 1.119.5]), and prevalent cartilage damage (adjusted OR 15.3 [95% CI 4.947.4]). Conclusion Cartilage loss over 6 months is rare, but may be detected semiquantitatively by 3T MRI and is most commonly observed in knees with Kellgren/Lawrence grade 3. Predictors of patellofemoral cartilage loss were effusion and prevalent cartilage damage in the same subregion. Predictors of tibiofemoral cartilage loss were prevalent cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions, and meniscal extrusion.

Leprosy reactions: coinfections as a possible risk factor

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the frequency of coinfections in leprosy patients and whether there is a relationship between the presence of coinfections and the development of leprosy reactional episodes. METHOD: A cross-sectional study based on an analysis of the medical records of the patients who were treated at the Leprosy Clinics of the Ribeirao Preto Medical School, University of Sao Paulo, was conducted from 2000 to 2010. Information was recorded regarding the age, sex, clinical status, WHO classification, treatment, presence of reactions and coinfections. Focal and systemic infections were diagnosed based on the history, physical examination, and laboratory tests. Multinomial logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations between the leprosy reactions and the patients' gender, age, WHO classification and coinfections. RESULTS: Two hundred twenty-five patients were studied. Most of these patients were males (155/225 = 68.8%) of an average age of 49.31 +/- 15.92 years, and the most prevalent clinical manifestation was the multibacillary (MB) form (n = 146), followed by the paucibacillary (PB) form (n = 79). Erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) was more prevalent (78/122 = 63.9%) than the reversal reaction (RR) (44/122 = 36.1%), especially in the MB patients (OR 5.07; CI 2.86-8.99; p<0.0001) who exhibited coinfections (OR 2.26; CI 1.56-3.27; p<0.0001). Eighty-eight (88/225 = 39.1%) patients exhibited coinfections. Oral coinfections were the most prevalent (40/88 = 45.5%), followed by urinary tract infections (17/88 = 19.3%), sinusopathy (6/88 = 6.8%), hepatitis C (6/88 = 6.8%), and hepatitis B (6/88 = 6.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Coinfections may be involved in the development and maintenance of leprosy reactions.

Clinical features of obsessive-compulsive disorder with hoarding symptoms: A multicenter study

Background: Factor analyses indicate that hoarding symptoms constitute a distinctive dimension of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), usually associated with higher severity and limited insight. The aim was to compare demographic and clinical features of OCD patients with and without hoarding symptoms. Method: A cross sectional study was conducted with 1001 DSM-IV OCD patients from the Brazilian Research Consortium of Obsessive-Compulsive Spectrum Disorders (CTOC), using several instruments. The presence and severity of hoarding symptoms were determined using the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale. Statistical univariate analyses comparing factors possibly associated with hoarding symptoms were conducted, followed by logistic regression to adjust the results for possible confounders. Results: Approximately half of the sample (52.7%, n = 528) presented hoarding symptoms, but only four patients presented solely the hoarding dimension. Hoarding was the least severe dimension in the total sample (mean score: 3.89). The most common lifetime hoarding symptom was the obsessive thought of needing to collect and keep things for the future (44.0%, n = 440). After logistic regression, the following variables remained independently associated with hoarding symptoms: being older, living alone, earlier age of symptoms onset, insidious onset of obsessions, higher anxiety scores, poorer insight and higher frequency of the symmetry-ordering symptom dimension. Concerning comorbidities, major depressive, posttraumatic stress and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorders, compulsive buying and tic disorders remained associated with the hoarding dimension. Conclusion: OCD hoarding patients are more likely to present certain clinical features, but further studies are needed to determine whether OCD patients with hoarding symptoms constitute an etiologically discrete subgroup. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Habitat use by Sharp-tailed Tyrant (Culicivora caudacuta), and Cock-tailed Tyrant (Alectrurus tricolor) in the Cerrado of Southeastern Brazil

Habitat use by Sharp-tailed Tyrant (Culicivora caudacuta), and Cock-tailed Tyrant (Alectrurus tricolor) in the Cerrado of Southeastern Brazil. Obligatory grassland birds are dependent on a limited set of native habitats that are disappearing almost everywhere. We examined the use of macrohabitat and microhabitat by two threatened species of flycatchers, the Sharp-tailed Tyrant, Culicivora caudacuta and the Cock-tailed Tyrant, Alectrurus tricolor in a preserved area of cerrado. We generated logistic regression models to explain the presence of these species through variables of microhabitat. Both flycatchers occurred mainly in grassland areas and favored areas with a low density of palms (Attalea geraensis) and trees. The Sharp-tailed Tyrant also favored areas with a high density of low shrubs (< 1 m) and less exposed soil. The positive relationship found between the presence of Sharp-tailed Tyrant and soil cover may indicate the importance of litter and understory vegetation for shelter and food. The conservation of both flycatcher species in the study area should benefit from controlling palm density and the maintenance of grasslands with low shrubs.

Influence of asthma definition on the asthma-obesity relationship

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest an association between obesity and asthma in adults and children. Asthma diagnosis criteria are different among studies. The aim of this study was to test the influence of asthma definition on the asthma-obesity relationship. Methods: In a cross-sectional analysis of 1922 men and women, subjects completed a translated questionnaire from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey and underwent spirometry and a bronchial challenge test. Weight, height and waist circumference were measured. Multiple logistic regression analysis was carried out to assess the association of variables related to obesity and asthma. Asthma was defined either by the presence of symptoms with bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) or by a self-report of a physician-made diagnosis. The following variables were separately tested for associations with asthma: socioeconomic characteristics, schooling, physical activity, smoking status, anthropometry and spirometry. Results: No association was detected between asthma confirmed by BHR and obesity indicators, odds ratio (OR) = 1.08 (95% confidence interval: 0.69 - 1.68) for obesity assessed by body mass index >= 30 kg/m(2); OR = 1.02 (0.74 - 1.40) for obesity assessed by abnormal waist-to-height ratio; and, OR = 0.96 (0.69 - 1.33) for abnormal waist circumference. On the contrary, a previous diagnosis of asthma was associated with obesity, OR = 1.48 (1.01 - 2.16) for body mass index >= 30 kg/m(2); OR = 1.48 (1.13 - 1.93) for abnormal waist-to-height ratio; and, OR = 1.32 (1.00 - 1.75) for abnormal waist circumference. Female gender, schooling >= 12 years and smoking were associated with BHR-confirmed asthma. Physically inactive subjects were associated with a previous diagnosis of asthma. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that the relationship between asthma and obesity in epidemiological studies depends on the definition adopted. Certain components of asthma, for instance, symptoms may be more prone to the obesity influence than other ones, like bronchial hyperresponsiveness.

Variation in DNA repair gene XRCC3 affects susceptibility to astrocytomas and glioblastomas

The gene XRCC3 (X-ray cross complementing group 3) has the task of repairing damage that occurs when there is recombination between homologous chromosomes. Repair of recombination between homologous chromosomes plays an important role in maintaining genome integrity, although it is known that double-strand breaks are the main inducers of chromosomal aberrations. Changes in the XRCC3 protein lead to an increase in errors in chromosome segregation due to defects in centrosomes, resulting in aneuploidy and other chromosomal aberrations, such as small increases in telomeres. We examined XRCC3 Thr241Met polymorphism using PCR-RFLP in 80 astrocytoma and glioblastoma samples. The individuals of the control group (N = 100) were selected from the general population of the Sao Paulo State. Odds ratio and 95%CI were calculated using a logistic regression model. Patients who had the allele Met of the XRCC3 Thr241Met polymorphism had a significantly increased risk of tumor development (odds ratio = 3.13; 95% confidence interval = 1.50-6.50). There were no significant differences in overall survival of patients. We suggest that XRCC3 Thr241Met polymorphism is involved in susceptibility for developing astrocytomas and glioblastomas.

Risk factors for computer visual syndrome (CVS) among operators of two call centers in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The aims of this study were to investigate work conditions, to estimate the prevalence and to describe risk factors associated with Computer Vision Syndrome among two call centers' operators in Sao Paulo (n = 476). The methods include a quantitative cross-sectional observational study and an ergonomic work analysis, using work observation, interviews and questionnaires. The case definition was the presence of one or more specific ocular symptoms answered as always, often or sometimes. The multiple logistic regression model, were created using the stepwise forward likelihood method and remained the variables with levels below 5% (p < 0.05). The operators were mainly female and young (from 15 to 24 years old). The call center was opened 24 hours and the operators weekly hours were 36 hours with break time from 21 to 35 minutes per day. The symptoms reported were eye fatigue (73.9%), "weight" in the eyes (68.2%), "burning" eyes (54.6%), tearing (43.9%) and weakening of vision (43.5%). The prevalence of Computer Vision Syndrome was 54.6%. Associations verified were: being female (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.6 to 4.1), lack of recognition at work (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.8), organization of work in call center (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.7) and high demand at work (OR 1.1, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.3). The organization and psychosocial factors at work should be included in prevention programs of visual syndrome among call centers' operators.

Social phobia in obsessive-compulsive disorder: Prevalence and correlates

Background: Social Phobia (SP) is an anxiety disorder that frequently co-occurs with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD); however, studies that evaluate clinical factors associated with this specific comorbidity are rare. The aim was to estimate the prevalence of SP in a large multicenter sample of OCD patients and compare the characteristics of individuals with and without SP. Method: A cross-sectional study with 1001 patients of the Brazilian Research Consortium on Obsessive-Compulsive Spectrum Disorders using several assessment instruments, including the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders. Univariate analyses were followed by logistic regression. Results: Lifetime prevalence of SP was 34.6% (N=346). The following variables remained associated with SP comorbidity after logistic regression: male sex, lower socioeconomic status, body dysmorphic disorder, specific phobia, dysthymia, generalized anxiety disorder, agoraphobia, Tourette syndrome and binge eating disorder. Limitations: The cross-sectional design does not permit the inference of causal relationships; some retrospective information may have been subject to recall bias; all patients were being treated in tertiary services, therefore generalization of the results to other samples of OCD sufferers should be cautious. Despite the large sample size, some hypotheses may not have been confirmed due to the small number of cases with these characteristics (type 2 error). Conclusion: SP is frequent among OCD patients and co-occurs with other disorders that have common phenomenological features. These findings have important implications for clinical practice, indicating the need for broader treatment approaches for individuals with this profile. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors associated with overweight in children living in the neighbourhoods of an urban area of Brazil

Objective: The present study aimed to investigate the individual and family determinants of being overweight among children younger than 10 years of age. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Direct data on children's age, food intake, physical activity, type of transportation used and anthropometric measurements, as well as the education level of the mothers, were collected by trained interviewers. Setting: Population-based study in the city of Santos, Brazil. Subjects: A total of 531 children under 10 years of age (302 aged <6 years, >= 6 aged years), living in the city of Santos. Results: The overall prevalence of overweight and obesity (BMI-for-age Z-score >1) was 35.4% for children under 6 years and 38.9% for children aged 6-10 years. The socio-economic status of the family was associated with being overweight for both age groups. Logistic regression analysis showed that the lower the socio-economic status, the higher the likelihood of being overweight, among both younger children (OR = 7.73; P = 0.02) and older children (OR = 1.98; P = 0.04). The use of active transportation was associated with a lower likelihood of being overweight, but only among younger children (OR = 1.70; P = 0.05). Conclusions: Socio-economic status seems to be an important individual-level determinant of overweight in children. Public policies should consider promoting the use of active transportation, as the results showed it to have a positive effect on reducing overweight issues. The high prevalence of overweight in younger children suggests that this age group should be a priority in health-promoting interventions.