Firm Market Performance and Volatility in a National Real Estate Sector

We present empirical evidence using daily data for stock prices for 17 real estate companies traded in the Sao Paulo, Brazil stock exchange. from August 26, 2006 to March 31, 2010. We use the U.S. house price bubble, financial crisis and risk measures to instrument for momentums and reversals in the domestic real estate sector. We find evidence of conditional premium persistence and conditional volatility persistence in the market. We find that the conditional risk-return relationship in the sector is consistent with the prospect theory of risk attitudes in this period. Certain companies seem to be operating on a perceived potential industry return above the target, while most others are below the target, and the whole sector is below target on average. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Size distributions and temporal variations of biological aerosol particles in the Amazon rainforest characterized by microscopy and real-time UV-APS fluorescence techniques during AMAZE-08

As a part of the AMAZE-08 campaign during the wet season in the rainforest of central Amazonia, an ultraviolet aerodynamic particle sizer (UV-APS) was operated for continuous measurements of fluorescent biological aerosol particles (FBAP). In the coarse particle size range (> 1 mu m) the campaign median and quartiles of FBAP number and mass concentration were 7.3x10(4) m(-3) (4.0-13.2x10(4) m(-3)) and 0.72 mu g m(-3) (0.42-1.19 mu g m(-3)), respectively, accounting for 24% (11-41%) of total particle number and 47% (25-65%) of total particle mass. During the five-week campaign in February-March 2008 the concentration of coarse-mode Saharan dust particles was highly variable. In contrast, FBAP concentrations remained fairly constant over the course of weeks and had a consistent daily pattern, peaking several hours before sunrise, suggesting observed FBAP was dominated by nocturnal spore emission. This conclusion was supported by the consistent FBAP number size distribution peaking at 2.3 mu m, also attributed to fungal spores and mixed biological particles by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), light microscopy and biochemical staining. A second primary biological aerosol particle (PBAP) mode between 0.5 and 1.0 mu m was also observed by SEM, but exhibited little fluorescence and no true fungal staining. This mode may have consisted of single bacterial cells, brochosomes, various fragments of biological material, and small Chromalveolata (Chromista) spores. Particles liquid-coated with mixed organic-inorganic material constituted a large fraction of observations, and these coatings contained salts likely from primary biological origin. We provide key support for the suggestion that real-time laser-induce fluorescence (LIF) techniques using 355 nm excitation provide size-resolved concentrations of FBAP as a lower limit for the atmospheric abundance of biological particles in a pristine environment. We also show some limitations of using the instrument for ambient monitoring of weakly fluorescent particles < 2 mu m. Our measurements confirm that primary biological particles, fungal spores in particular, are an important fraction of supermicron aerosol in the Amazon and that may contribute significantly to hydrological cycling, especially when coated by mixed inorganic material.

Effects of age and optical blur on real depth stereoacuity

Stereoscopic depth perception utilizes the disparity cues between the images that fall on the retinae of the two eyes. The purpose of this study was to determine what role aging and optical blur play in stereoscopic disparity sensitivity for real depth stimuli. Forty-six volunteers were tested ranging in age from 15 to 60 years. Crossed and uncrossed disparity thresholds were measured using white light under conditions of best optical correction. The uncrossed disparity thresholds were also measured with optical blur (from +1.0D to +5.0D added to the best correction). Stereothresholds were measured using the Frisby Stereo Test, which utilizes a four-alternative forced-choice staircase procedure. The threshold disparities measured for young adults were frequently lower than 10 arcsec, a value considerably lower than the clinical estimates commonly obtained using Random Dot Stereograms (20 arcsec) or Titmus Fly Test (40 arcsec) tests. Contrary to previous reports, disparity thresholds increased between the ages of 31 and 45 years. This finding should be taken into account in clinical evaluation of visual function of older patients. Optical blur degrades visual acuity and stereoacuity similarly under white-light conditions, indicating that both functions are affected proportionally by optical defocus.

Performance of six diagnostic tests to screen for Chagas disease in blood banks and prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening based on the analysis of epidemiological variables

OBJECTIVE: The frequent occurrence of inconclusive serology in blood banks and the absence of a gold standard test for Chagas'disease led us to examine the efficacy of the blood culture test and five commercial tests (ELISA, IIF, HAI, c-ELISA, rec-ELISA) used in screening blood donors for Chagas disease, as well as to investigate the prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening in respect to some epidemiological variables. METHODS: To obtain estimates of interest we considered a Bayesian latent class model with inclusion of covariates from the logit link. RESULTS: A better performance was observed with some categories of epidemiological variables. In addition, all pairs of tests (excluding the blood culture test) presented as good alternatives for both screening (sensitivity > 99.96% in parallel testing) and for confirmation (specificity > 99.93% in serial testing) of Chagas disease. The prevalence of 13.30% observed in the stratum of donors with inconclusive serology, means that probably most of these are non-reactive serology. In addition, depending on the level of specific epidemiological variables, the absence of infection can be predicted with a probability of 100% in this group from the pairs of tests using parallel testing. CONCLUSION: The epidemiological variables can lead to improved test results and thus assist in the clarification of inconclusive serology screening results. Moreover, all combinations of pairs using the five commercial tests are good alternatives to confirm results.