RegCM3 nested in HadAM3 scenarios A2 and B2: projected changes in extratropical cyclogenesis, temperature and precipitation over the South Atlantic Ocean

The RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model-version 3) was nested in HadAM3 model to simulate present (1975-1989, referred hereafter as RegHad) and two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2 from 2071 to 2085, referred as RegA2 and RegB2) over the South America (SA) and South Atlantic Ocean (SAO). Projected changes in the air temperature, precipitation, low level circulation and cyclogenesis climatology were investigated. The cyclogenesis were identified using an automatic scheme for tracking based on the minimum of relative vorticity (zeta) from 10-m height wind. During summer, a general decrease (increase) in the precipitation is projected by RegA2 and RegB2 over the northeastern SA (center-west and south Brazil, north Argentina and Uruguay). For winter, an anomalous low level anticyclonic circulation is associated with the reduction in the rainfall over the central part of southern Brazil in RegA2 and RegB2 scenarios. Similar to HadAM3, RegCM3 projects larger warming in A2 scenario. For the present climate, when compared to HadAM3, RegHad defines better both the location of the main cyclogenetic areas and its annual cycle near southwestern SAO. The projections indicate a reduction in the total number of cyclones of -7.2% and -4.7% for RegA2 and RegB2, respectively, while HadAM3 reduction is -4.5% for both scenarios. The decrease is larger for initially intense cyclones (zeta <=-<= 2.5 x 10(-5) s-(1)): -20.9% (RegA2) and -11.3% (RegB2). For the lifetime, distance traveled and mean velocity of the cyclones, the A2 and B2 scenarios present mean values close to the present climate ( 3 days, 1900 km, and 9 m s(-1), respectively). Regarding the initial mean vorticity of the systems, RegB2 simulates values similar to the present climate, but they are initially weaker in RegA2. In general, RegA2 and RegB2 show a large decrease in the number of cyclones over the southern SAO due to an anticyclonic anomaly covering SAO between 30-55A degrees S. The reduction is larger in the scenario with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases (RegA2).

The Brazilian biofuels industry

Ethanol is a biofuel that is used as a replacement for approximately 3% of the fossil-based gasoline consumed in the world today. Most of this biofuel is produced from sugarcane in Brazil and corn in the United States. We present here the rationale for the ethanol program in Brazil, its present 'status' and its perspectives. The environmental benefits of the program, particularly the contribution of ethanol to reducing the emission of greenhouse gases, are discussed, as well as the limitations to its expansion.

Climate Change and "historical responsibilities"

The historical responsibility of countries listed in the Annex I of the Convention on Climate Change has been used extensively as a justification for the lack of action of countries not included in Annex I to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. We analyzed the contribution of non-Annex I countries to the CO2 emissions in the period 1850 - 2006 to assess their relative contribution to total CO2 emissions. In the period 1980 - 2006 non-Annex I countries represented 44% of the total but this contribution increased in the period 1990 - 2006 to 48%. If we extrapolate present trends to 2020 they will represent 56% in the period 1990 - 2020. The "historical responsibility" of Annex I countries is therefore decreasing. If we take 1990 as the starting year in which the Climate Convention recognized clearly that greenhouse gases are interfering dangerously with the climate system, it becomes very difficult to attribute "blame" and "guilt" to Annex I for their historical contributions. It becomes also quite clear the need of non-Annex I countries to engage with Annex I countries in the effort to reduce emissions. The Copenhagen Accord has no mention of "historical responsibilities".

Life cycle assessment of sugarcane ethanol and palm oil biodiesel joint production

Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) and palm tree (Elaeis guianeensis) are crops with high biofuel yields, 7.6 m(3) ha (1) y(-)1 of ethanol and 4 Mg ha(-1) y(-1) of oil, respectively. The joint production of these crops enhances the sustainability of ethanol. The objective of this work was comparing a traditional sugarcane ethanol production system (TSES) with a joint production system (JSEB), in which ethanol and biodiesel are produced at the same biorefinery but only ethanol is traded. The comparison is based on ISO 14.040:2006 and ISO 14044:2006, and appropriate indicators. Production systems in Cerrado (typical savannah), Cerradao (woody savannah) and pastureland ecosystems were considered. Energy and carbon balances, and land use change impacts were evaluated. The joint system includes 100% substitution of biodiesel for diesel, which is all consumed in different cropping stages. Data were collected by direct field observation methods, and questionnaires applied to Brazilian facilities. Three sugarcane mills situated in Sao Paulo State and one palm oil refinery located in Para State were surveyed. The information was supplemented by secondary sources. Results demonstrated that fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions decreased, whereas energy efficiency increased when JSEB was compared to TSES. In comparison with TSES, the energy balance of JSEB was 1.7 greater. In addition, JSEB released 23% fewer GHG emissions than TSES. The ecosystem carbon payback time for Cerrado, Cerradao, and Degraded Grassland of JSEB was respectively 4, 7.7 and -7.6 years. These are typical land use types of the Brazilian Cerrado region for which JSEB was conceived. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.