A Simple Artificial Life Model Explains Irrational Behavior in Human Decision-Making

Although praised for their rationality, humans often make poor decisions, even in simple situations. In the repeated binary choice experiment, an individual has to choose repeatedly between the same two alternatives, where a reward is assigned to one of them with fixed probability. The optimal strategy is to perseverate with choosing the alternative with the best expected return. Whereas many species perseverate, humans tend to match the frequencies of their choices to the frequencies of the alternatives, a sub-optimal strategy known as probability matching. Our goal was to find the primary cognitive constraints under which a set of simple evolutionary rules can lead to such contrasting behaviors. We simulated the evolution of artificial populations, wherein the fitness of each animat (artificial animal) depended on its ability to predict the next element of a sequence made up of a repeating binary string of varying size. When the string was short relative to the animats' neural capacity, they could learn it and correctly predict the next element of the sequence. When it was long, they could not learn it, turning to the next best option: to perseverate. Animats from the last generation then performed the task of predicting the next element of a non-periodical binary sequence. We found that, whereas animats with smaller neural capacity kept perseverating with the best alternative as before, animats with larger neural capacity, which had previously been able to learn the pattern of repeating strings, adopted probability matching, being outperformed by the perseverating animats. Our results demonstrate how the ability to make predictions in an environment endowed with regular patterns may lead to probability matching under less structured conditions. They point to probability matching as a likely by-product of adaptive cognitive strategies that were crucial in human evolution, but may lead to sub-optimal performances in other environments.

A Spatial Propensity Score Matching Evaluation of the Social Impacts of Sugarcane Growing on Municipalities in Brazil

The expansion of sugarcane growing in Brazil, spurred particularly by increased demand for ethanol, has triggered the need to evaluate the economic, social, and environmental impacts of this process, both on the country as a whole and on the growing regions. Even though the balance of costs and benefits is positive from an overall standpoint, this may not be so in specific producing regions, due to negative externalities. The objective of this paper is to estimate the effect of growing sugarcane on the human development index (HDI) and its sub-indices in cane producing regions. In the literature on matching effects, this is interpreted as the effect of the treatment on the treated. Location effects are controlled by spatial econometric techniques, giving rise to the spatial propensity score matching model. The authors analyze 424 minimum comparable areas (MCAs) in the treatment group, compared with 907 MCAs in the control group. The results suggest that the presence of sugarcane growing in these areas is not relevant to determine their social conditions, whether for better or worse. It is thus likely that public policies, especially those focused directly on improving education, health, and income generation/distribution, have much more noticeable effects on the municipal HDI.

Tailored Therapy: Matching the Method to the Patient

Clinicians frequently have to decide when dialysis should be initiated and which modality should be used to support kidney function in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury. In most instances, these decisions are made based on the consideration of a variety of factors including patient condition, available resources and prevailing local practice experience. There is a wide variation worldwide in how these factors influence the timing of initiation and the utilization of various modalities. In this article, we review the therapeutic goals of renal support and the relative advantages and shortcomings of different dialysis techniques. We describe strategies for matching the timing of initiation to the choice of modality to individualize renal support in intensive care unit patients. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel

Integrable Models: from Dynamical Solutions to String Theory

We review the status of integrable models from the point of view of their dynamics and integrability conditions. A few integrable models are discussed in detail. We comment on the use it is made of them in string theory. We also discuss the SO(6) symmetric Hamiltonian with SO(6) boundary. This work is especially prepared for the 70th anniversaries of Andr, Swieca (in memoriam) and Roland Koberle.

RELATIONSHIP AMONG EXTRACTIVES, LIGNIN AND HOLOCELLULOSE CONTENTS WITH PERFORMANCE INDEX OF SEVEN WOOD SPECIES USED FOR BOWS OF STRING INSTRUMENTS

In this paper we investigate the influence of extractives, lignin and holocellulose contents on performance index (PI) of seven woods used or tested for violin bows. Woods with higher values of this index (PI = root MOE/rho, where MOE is modulus of elasticity and rho is density) have a higher bending stiffness at a given mass, which can be related to bow wood quality. Extractive content was negatively correlated with PI in Caesalpinia echinata, Hanclroanthus sp. and Astronium lecointei. In C. echinata holocellulose was positively correlated with PI. These results need to be further explored with more samples and by testing additional wood properties. Although the chemical constituents could provide an indication of quality, it is not possible to establish appropriate woods for bows solely by examining their chemical constituents.

String Quartet n degrees 02 by Villa-Lobos: a dialogue with the cyclic form of Franck, Debussy and Ravel

This article investigates Villa-Lobos's String Quartet n degrees 02, an early work by this composer, written according cyclic sonata principles, as developed by Cesar Franck and systematized by Vincent d'Indy. Another important source are the string quartets composed by Franck (1889), Debussy (1893) and Ravel (1903), which possibly served as compositional models to Villa-Lobos. In this light, the themes of the Exposition in the first movement were analyzed and this procedure reveals some harmonic and rhythmic aspects throughout all the other movements.

Propensity score matching approach to test the association of income inequality and mortality in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background Support for the adverse effect of high income inequality on population health has come from studies that focus on larger areas, such as the US states, while studies at smaller geographical areas (eg, neighbourhoods) have found mixed results. Methods We used propensity score matching to examine the relationship between income inequality and mortality rates across 96 neighbourhoods (distritos) of the municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Results Prior to matching, higher income inequality distritos (Gini >= 0.25) had slightly lower overall mortality rates (2.23 per 10 000, 95% CI -23.92 to 19.46) compared to lower income inequality areas (Gini <0.25). After propensity score matching, higher inequality was associated with a statistically significant higher mortality rate (41.58 per 10 000, 95% CI 8.85 to 73.3). Conclusion In Sao Paulo, the more egalitarian communities are among some of the poorest, with the worst health profiles. Propensity score matching was used to avoid inappropriate comparisons between the health status of unequal (but wealthy) neighbourhoods versus equal (but poor) neighbourhoods. Our methods suggest that, with proper accounting of heterogeneity between areas, income inequality is associated with worse population health in Sao Paulo.