12 resultados para General allocation model

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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Planetary waves are key to large-scale dynamical adjustment in the global ocean as they transfer energy from the east to the west side of oceanic basins; they connect the forcing in the ocean interior with the variability at its boundaries: and they change the local heat content, thus coupling oceanic, atmospheric, and biological processes. Planetary waves, mostly of the first baroclinic mode, are observed as distinctive patterns in global time series of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and heat storage. The goal of this study is to compare and validate large-scale SSHA signals from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) with TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter observations. The last decade of the models` time series is selected for comparison with the altimeter data. The wave patterns are separated from the meso- and large-scale SSHA signals by digital filters calibrated to select the same spectral bands in both model and altimeter data. The band-wise comparison allows for an assessment of the model skill to simulate the dynamical components of the observed wave field. Comparisons regarding both the seasonal cycle and the Rossby wave Held differ significantly among basins. When carried within the same basin, differences can occur between equal latitudes in opposite hemispheres. Furthermore, at some latitudes the MIROC reproduces biannual, annual and semiannual planetary waves with phase speeds and average amplitudes similar to those observed by the altimeter, but with significant differences in phase. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In accelerating dark energy models, the estimates of the Hubble constant, Ho, from Sunyaev-Zerdovich effect (SZE) and X-ray surface brightness of galaxy clusters may depend on the matter content (Omega(M)), the curvature (Omega(K)) and the equation of state parameter GO. In this article, by using a sample of 25 angular diameter distances of galaxy clusters described by the elliptical beta model obtained through the SZE/X-ray technique, we constrain Ho in the framework of a general ACDM model (arbitrary curvature) and a flat XCDM model with a constant equation of state parameter omega = p(x)/rho(x). In order to avoid the use of priors in the cosmological parameters, we apply a joint analysis involving the baryon acoustic oscillations (BA()) and the (MB Shift Parameter signature. By taking into account the statistical and systematic errors of the SZE/X-ray technique we obtain for nonflat ACDM model H-0 = 74(-4.0)(+5.0) km s(-1) Mpc(-1) (1 sigma) whereas for a fiat universe with constant equation of state parameter we find H-0 = 72(-4.0)(+5.5) km s(-1) Mpc(-1)(1 sigma). By assuming that galaxy clusters are described by a spherical beta model these results change to H-0 = 6(-7.0)(+8.0) and H-0 = 59(-6.0)(+9.0) km s(-1) Mpc(-1)(1 sigma), respectively. The results from elliptical description are in good agreement with independent studies from the Hubble Space Telescope key project and recent estimates based on the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe, thereby suggesting that the combination of these three independent phenomena provides an interesting method to constrain the Bubble constant. As an extra bonus, the adoption of the elliptical description is revealed to be a quite realistic assumption. Finally, by comparing these results with a recent determination for a, flat ACDM model using only the SZE/X-ray technique and BAO, we see that the geometry has a very weak influence on H-0 estimates for this combination of data.

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In southeastern Brazil, slipper lobsters (Scyllarides deceptor and S. brasiliensis) are caught by fleets trawling for pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus brasiliensis and F. paulensis) and pots-and-traps fishing for octopuses (Octopus vulgaris). Eight hundred fifty-six landings of shrimp trawlers and 28 of the octopus fleet were monitored in the Santos region from May 2006 to April 2007. Additional analysis was performed using a database covering the period from 1999 onwards. This study seeks to identify the recent patterns of exploitation of these lobsters with the goal of improving the way towards fishery sustainability. Scyllarides deceptor was the dominant lobster species with 1032 specimens collected, while only three specimens of S. brasiliensis were identified. The area known as the `Farol do Boi` (23 degrees 01`S, 45 degrees 00`W to 25 degrees 00`S, 45 degrees 40`W at 60-135 m deep) showed the highest Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE). A General Linearized Model (GLM) was used to investigate the factors influencing variations in CPUE in trawl fleets and led to the conclusion that year, month and depth were the most important factors. We detected a significant decrease in the relative abundance of lobsters in the fishing zone despite relatively low fishing effort. Recommendations to protect the lobster resources include taking special precautions in the natural refuge area of the `Farol do Boi`, as an exclusion zone for trawl fleets, and controlling the use of traps longlines to catch octopuses. Concerns about depensatory processes due to the over-exploitation of lobster populations around the world are raised. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Deep Chlorophyll Maximum (DCM) modifies the upper ocean heat capture distribution and thus impacts water column temperature and stratification, as well as biogeochemical processes. This energetical role of the DCM is assessed using a 1 m-resolution 1D physical-biogeochemical model of the upper ocean, using climatological forcing conditions of the Guinea Dome (GD). This zone has been chosen among others because a strong and shallow DCM is present all year round. The results show that the DCM warms the seasonal thermocline by +2 degrees C in September/October and causes an increase of heat transfer from below into the mixed layer (ML) by vertical diffusion and entrainment, leading to a ML warming of about 0.3 degrees C in October. In the permanent thermocline, temperature decreases by up to 2 degrees C. The result is a stratification increase of the water column by 0.3 degrees C m(-1) which improves the thermocline realism when compared with observations. At the same time, the heating associated with the DCM is responsible for an increase of nitrate (+300%, 0.024 mu M), chlorophyll (+50%, 0.02 mu g l(-1)) and primary production (+45%: 10 mg C m(-2) day(-1)) in the ML during the entrainment period of October. The considered concentrations are small but this mechanism could be potentially important to give a better explanation of why there is a significant amount of nitrate in the ML. The mechanisms associated with the DCM presence, no matter which temperature or biogeochemical tracers are concerned, are likely to occur in a wide range of tropical or subpolar regions; in these zones a pronounced DCM is present at least episodically at shallow or moderate depths. These results can be generalized to other thermal dome regions where relatively similar physical and biogeochemical structures are encountered. After testing different vertical resolutions (10 m, 5 m, 2.5 m, 1 m and 0.5 m), we show that using at least a 1 to vertical resolution model is mandatory to assess the energetical importance of the DCM.

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This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

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We present a new approach to determine the number and composition of guilds, using the hyperdiverse leaf-litter ant fauna as a model, based on appropriate morphological variables and species co-occurrence null models to describe the complex assemblages of interacting Species Community structure at the 1-m(2) scale. We obtained 18 linear morphometric measures from 949 workers of 171 leaf-litter ant species (18762 measurements) surveyed in four Atlantic Forest localities to test whether the assemblages are morphologically structured; the morphological characters were selected to indicate diet and foraging habits. Principal components analysis was used to characterize the morphospace and to describe the guild structure (number of species and composition). The guild proportionality assembly rule (significant tendency toward constant proportion of species in guilds) was assessed at the 1-m(2) scale. Our analysis indicates that the division of leaf-litter ants into guilds is based mainly on microhabitat distribution in the leaf-litter, body size and shape, eye size, and phylogeny. The same guild scheme applied to four more sites shows that different Atlantic Forest areas have the same leaf-fitter ant guilds. The guild proportionality assembly rule was confirmed for most guilds, Suggesting that there are guild-specific limitations on species coexistence within assemblages; on the other hand, in a few cases the variance in guild proportion was greater than expected under the null assumptions. Other studies on ant functional group classification are partially supported by our quantitative morphological analysis. Our results, however, imply that there are more compartments than indicated in previous models, particularly among cryptic species (confined to soil and litter) and tropical climate specialists. We argue that a general null model for the analysis of species association based oil morphology can reveal objectively defined groups and may thus contribute to a robust theory to explain community structure in general and have important consequences on studies of litter ant community ecology in particular.

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This study analyzes important aspects of the tropical Atlantic Ocean from simulations of the fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4): the mean sea surface temperature (SST) and wind stress, the Atlantic warm pools, the principal modes of SST variability, and the heat budget in the Benguela region. The main goal was to assess the similarities and differences between the CCSM4 simulations and observations. The results indicate that the tropical Atlantic overall is realistic in CCSM4. However, there are still significant biases in the CCSM4 Atlantic SSTs, with a colder tropical North Atlantic and a hotter tropical South Atlantic, that are related to biases in the wind stress. These are also reflected in the Atlantic warm pools in April and September, with its volume greater than in observations in April and smaller than in observations in September. The variability of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic is well represented in CCSM4. However, in the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic regions, CCSM4 has two distinct modes of variability, in contrast to observed behavior. A model heat budget analysis of the Benguela region indicates that the variability of the upper-ocean temperature is dominated by vertical advection, followed by meridional advection.

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The aim of this work was to determine the impact of three levels of [CO2] and two levels of soil-nutrient availability on the growth and physiological responses of two tropical tree species differing in their ecological group: Croton urucurana Baillon, a pioneer (P), and also Cariniana legalis (Martius) Kuntze, a late succession (LS). We aimed to test the hypothesis that P species have stronger response to elevated [CO2] than LS species as a result of differences in photosynthetic capacity and growth kinetics between both functional groups. Seedlings of both species were grown in open-top-chambers under high (HN) or low (LN) soil-nutrient supply and exposed to ambient (380 mu mol mol(-1)) or elevated (570 and 760 mu mol mol(-1)) [CO2]. Measurements of gas exchange, chlorophyll a fluorescence, seedling biomass and allocation were made after 70 days of treatment. Results suggest that elevated [CO2] significantly enhances the photosynthetic rates (A) and biomass production in the seedlings of both species, but that soil-nutrient supply has the potential to modify the response of young tropical trees to elevated [CO2]. In relation to plants grown in ambient [CO2], the P species grown under 760 mu mol mol(-1) [CO2] showed increases of 28% and 91% in A when grown in LN and HN, respectively. In P species grown under 570 mu mol mol(-1) [CO2], A increased by 16% under HN, but there was no effect in LN. In LS species, the enhancement of A by effect of 760 mu mol mol(-1) [CO2] was 30% and 70% in LN and HN, respectively. The exposure to 570 mu mol mol(-1) [CO2] stimulated A by 31% in HN, but was no effect in LN. Reductions in stomatal conductance (g(s)) and transpiration (E), as a result of elevated [CO2] were observed. Increasing the nutrient supply from low to high increased both the maximum rate of carboxylation (V-cmax) and maximum potential rate of electron transport (J(max)). As the level of [CO2] increased, both the V-cmax and the J(max) were found to decrease, whereas the J(max)/V-cmax ratio increased. In the LS species, the maximum efficiency of PSII (F-v/F-m) was higher in the 760 mu mol mol(-1) [CO2] treatment relative to other [CO2] treatments. The results suggest that when grown under HN and the highest [CO2], the performance of the P species C. urucurana, in terms of photosynthesis and biomass enhancement, is better than the LS species C. legalis. However, a larger biomass is allocated to roots when C. legalis seedlings were exposed to elevated [CO2]. This response would be an important strategy for plant survival and productivity of the LS species under drought stresses conditions on tropical environments in a global-change scenario. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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OBJECTIVE: To identify the nutritional status and food intake of individuals with systemic psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis associated. METHODS: This is an exploratory and cross-sectional study with 34 men aged between 19 and 60 years seen at a Psoriasis Center. Participants were divided into systemic psoriasis group and arthritic-systemic psoriasis associated group. For nutritional assessment we used anthropometry, bioelectrical impedance analysis and whole-body plethysmography. Clinical and nutritional information were assessed using the clinical and nutritional history-taking, and the 24-hour dietary recall. For statistics the general linear model test (p < 0.05) was used. RESULTS: According to the body mass index 29.4% patients (n = 10) were eutrophic, 41.2% (n = 14) overweight and 29% (n = 10) obese. Almost all individuals (60%; n = 21) had body fat percentage above normal levels (> 25%) and a high risk for metabolic complications according to the waist circumference and the obesity index, however, there were no statistically significant differences between groups. The mean food intake, total fat, calories and protein were above recommended levels, being 58.8% for lipids (319.17 ± 241.02 mg of cholesterol and 17.42 ± 11.4 g saturated fatty acids); 29.4% for calories and 67.6% for proteins. Thus, regardless of the psoriasis type, an excessive consumption of calories, lipids, fatty acids, cholesterol and a higher incidence of overweight were found. CONCLUSION: The sample showed an abnormal nutritional condition, an increased risk for chronic diseases related to obesity, worsening of the psoriatic lesions, and poor quality of life.

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In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

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The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that is used to model opinion propagation and consensus formation in societies. Its main feature is that its rules favor bigger groups of agreeing people. In a previous work, we generalized the bounded confidence rule in order to model biases and prejudices in discrete opinion models. In that work, we applied this modification to the Sznajd model and presented some preliminary results. The present work extends what we did in that paper. We present results linking many of the properties of the mean-field fixed points, with only a few qualitative aspects of the confidence rule (the biases and prejudices modeled), finding an interesting connection with graph theory problems. More precisely, we link the existence of fixed points with the notion of strongly connected graphs and the stability of fixed points with the problem of finding the maximal independent sets of a graph. We state these results and present comparisons between the mean field and simulations in Barabasi-Albert networks, followed by the main mathematical ideas and appendices with the rigorous proofs of our claims and some graph theory concepts, together with examples. We also show that there is no qualitative difference in the mean-field results if we require that a group of size q > 2, instead of a pair, of agreeing agents be formed before they attempt to convince other sites (for the mean field, this would coincide with the q-voter model).

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We propose a new general Bayesian latent class model for evaluation of the performance of multiple diagnostic tests in situations in which no gold standard test exists based on a computationally intensive approach. The modeling represents an interesting and suitable alternative to models with complex structures that involve the general case of several conditionally independent diagnostic tests, covariates, and strata with different disease prevalences. The technique of stratifying the population according to different disease prevalence rates does not add further marked complexity to the modeling, but it makes the model more flexible and interpretable. To illustrate the general model proposed, we evaluate the performance of six diagnostic screening tests for Chagas disease considering some epidemiological variables. Serology at the time of donation (negative, positive, inconclusive) was considered as a factor of stratification in the model. The general model with stratification of the population performed better in comparison with its concurrents without stratification. The group formed by the testing laboratory Biomanguinhos FIOCRUZ-kit (c-ELISA and rec-ELISA) is the best option in the confirmation process by presenting false-negative rate of 0.0002% from the serial scheme. We are 100% sure that the donor is healthy when these two tests have negative results and he is chagasic when they have positive results.