Superdiffusion in a non-Markovian random walk model with a Gaussian memory profile

Most superdiffusive Non-Markovian random walk models assume that correlations are maintained at all time scales, e. g., fractional Brownian motion, Levy walks, the Elephant walk and Alzheimer walk models. In the latter two models the random walker can always "remember" the initial times near t = 0. Assuming jump size distributions with finite variance, the question naturally arises: is superdiffusion possible if the walker is unable to recall the initial times? We give a conclusive answer to this general question, by studying a non-Markovian model in which the walker's memory of the past is weighted by a Gaussian centered at time t/2, at which time the walker had one half the present age, and with a standard deviation sigma t which grows linearly as the walker ages. For large widths we find that the model behaves similarly to the Elephant model, but for small widths this Gaussian memory profile model behaves like the Alzheimer walk model. We also report that the phenomenon of amnestically induced persistence, known to occur in the Alzheimer walk model, arises in the Gaussian memory profile model. We conclude that memory of the initial times is not a necessary condition for generating (log-periodic) superdiffusion. We show that the phenomenon of amnestically induced persistence extends to the case of a Gaussian memory profile.

Strategy and model building in the fourth dimension: a null model for genotype × age interaction as a Gaussian stationary stochastic process

Abstract Background Using univariate and multivariate variance components linkage analysis methods, we studied possible genotype × age interaction in cardiovascular phenotypes related to the aging process from the Framingham Heart Study. Results We found evidence for genotype × age interaction for fasting glucose and systolic blood pressure. Conclusions There is polygenic genotype × age interaction for fasting glucose and systolic blood pressure and quantitative trait locus × age interaction for a linkage signal for systolic blood pressure phenotypes located on chromosome 17 at 67 cM.

Female fertility in a Guzerat dairy subpopulation: Heterogeneity of variance components for calving intervals

The objectives of the present study were to determine if variance components of calving intervals varied with age at calving and if considering calving intervals as a longitudinal trait would be a useful approach for fertility analysis of Zebu dairy herds. With these purposes, calving records from females born from 1940 to 2006 in a Guzerat dairy subpopulation in Brazil were analyzed. The fixed effects of contemporary groups, formed by year and farm at birth or at calving, and the regressions of age at calving, equivalent inbreeding coefficient and day of the year on the studied traits were considered in the statistical models. In one approach, calving intervals (Cl) were analyzed as a single trait, by fitting a statistical model on which both animal and permanent environment effects were adjusted for the effect of age at calving by random regression. In a second approach, a four-trait analysis was conducted, including age at first calving (AFC) and three different female categories for the calving intervals: first calving females; young females (less than 80 months old, but not first calving); or mature females (80 months old or more). Finally, a two-trait analysis was performed, also including AFC and Cl, but calving intervals were regarded as a single trait in a repeatability model. Additionally, the ranking of sires was compared among approaches. Calving intervals decreased with age until females were about 80 months old, remaining nearly constant after that age. A quasi-linear increase of 11.5 days on the calving intervals was observed for each 10% increase in the female's equivalent inbreeding coefficient. The heritability of AFC was 0.37. For Cl. the genetic-phenotypic variance ratios ranged from 0.064 to 0.141, depending on the approach and on ages at calving. Differences among genetic variance components for calving intervals were observed along the animal's lifetime. Those differences confirmed the longitudinal aspect of that trait, indicating the importance of such consideration when accessing fertility of Zebu dairy females, especially in situations where the available information relies on their calving intervals. Spearman rank correlations among approaches ranged from 0.90 to 0.95, and changes observed in the ranking of sires suggested that the genetic progress of the population could be affected by the approach chosen for the analysis of calving intervals. (C) 2012 Elsevier ay. All rights reserved.

Blood transfusions increase circulating plasma free hemoglobin levels and plasma nitric oxide consumption: a prospective observational pilot study

Introduction: The increasing number of reports on the relation between transfusion of stored red blood cells (RBCs) and adverse patient outcome has sparked an intense debate on the benefits and risks of blood transfusions. Meanwhile, the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying this postulated relation remain unclear. The development of hemolysis during storage might contribute to this mechanism by release of free hemoglobin (fHb), a potent nitric oxide (NO) scavenger, which may impair vasodilation and microcirculatory perfusion after transfusion. The objective of this prospective observational pilot study was to establish whether RBC transfusion results in increased circulating fHb levels and plasma NO consumption. In addition, the relation between increased fHb values and circulating haptoglobin, its natural scavenger, was studied. Methods: Thirty patients electively received 1 stored packed RBC unit (n = 8) or 2 stored packed RBC units (n = 22). Blood samples were drawn to analyze plasma levels of fHb, haptoglobin, and NO consumption prior to transfusion, and 15, 30, 60 and 120 minutes and 24 hours after transfusion. Differences were compared using Pearson's chi-square test or Fisher's exact test for dichotomous variables, or an independent-sample t test or Mann-Whitney U test for continuous data. Continuous, multiple-timepoint data were analyzed using repeated one-way analysis of variance or the Kruskall-Wallis test. Correlations were analyzed using Spearman or Pearson correlation. Results: Storage duration correlated significantly with fHb concentrations and NO consumption within the storage medium (r = 0.51, P < 0.001 and r = 0.62, P = 0.002). fHb also significantly correlated with NO consumption directly (r = 0.61, P = 0.002). Transfusion of 2 RBC units significantly increased circulating fHb and NO consumption in the recipient (P < 0.001 and P < 0.05, respectively), in contrast to transfusion of 1 stored RBC unit. Storage duration of the blood products did not correlate with changes in fHb and NO consumption in the recipient. In contrast, pre-transfusion recipient plasma haptoglobin levels inversely influenced post-transfusion fHb concentrations. Conclusion: These data suggest that RBC transfusion can significantly increase post-transfusion plasma fHb levels and plasma NO consumption in the recipient. This finding may contribute to the potential pathophysiological mechanism underlying the much-discussed adverse relation between blood transfusions and patient outcome. This observation may be of particular importance for patients with substantial transfusion requirements.

Weakly anomalous diffusion with non-Gaussian propagators

A poorly understood phenomenon seen in complex systems is diffusion characterized by Hurst exponent H approximate to 1/2 but with non-Gaussian statistics. Motivated by such empirical findings, we report an exact analytical solution for a non-Markovian random walk model that gives rise to weakly anomalous diffusion with H = 1/2 but with a non-Gaussian propagator.

Manipulation effects of prior exercise intensity feedback by the Borg scale during open-loop cycling

Objective To verify the effects of exercise intensity deception by the Borg scale on the ratings of perceived exertion (RPE), heart rate (HR) and performance responses during a constant power output open-loop exercise. Methods Eight healthy men underwent a maximal incremental test on a cycle ergometer to identify the peak power output (PPO) and heart rate deflection point (HRDP). Subsequently, they performed a constant power output trial to exhaustion set at the HRDP intensity, in deception (DEC) and informed (INF) conditions: DEC-subjects were told that they would be cycling at an intensity corresponding to two categories below the RPE quantified at the HRDP; INF-subjects were told that they would cycle at the exact intensity corresponding to the RPE quantified at the HRDP. Results The PPO and power output at the HRDP obtained in maximal incremental tests were 247.5 +/- 32.1 W and 208.1 +/- 27.1 W, respectively. No significant difference in the time to exhaustion was found between DEC (525 +/- 244 s) or INF (499 +/- 224 s) trials. The slope and the first and second measurements of the RPE and HR parameters showed no significant difference between trials. Conclusions Psychophysiological variables such as RPE and HR as well as performance were not affected when exercise intensity was deceptively manipulated via RPE scores. This may suggest that unaltered RPE during exercise is a regulator of performance in this open-loop exercise.

Prior history of sexually transmitted diseases in women living with AIDS in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objectives: To describe the epidemiological profile, risk behaviors, and the prior history of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in women living with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Methods: Cross-sectional study, performed at the Centro de Referencia e Treinamento em DST/AIDS of Sao Paulo. The social, demographic, behavioral, and clinical data such as age, schooling, marital status, age at first sexual intercourse, number of sexual partners, parity, use of drugs, time of HIV diagnosis, CD4 count, and viral load determination were abstracted from the medical records of women living with AIDS who had gynecological consultation scheduled in the period from June 2008 to May 2009. Results: Out of 710 women who were scheduled to a gynecological consultation during the period of the study, 598 were included. Previous STD was documented for 364 (60.9%; 95% CI: 56.9%-64.8%) women. The associated factors with previous STDs and their respective risks were: human development index (HDI) <0.50 (ORaj = 5.5; 95% CI: 2.8-11.0); non-white race (ORaj = 5.2; 95% CI: 2.5-11.0); first sexual intercourse at or before 15 years of age (ORaj = 4.4; 95% CI: 2.3-8.3); HIV infection follow-up time of nine years or more (ORaj = 4.2; 95% CI: 2.3-7.8)]; number of sexual partners during the entire life between three and five partners (ORaj = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.1-4.6), and six or more sexual partners (ORaj = 3.9; 95% CI: 1.9-8.0%); being a sex worker (ORaj = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.1-3.1). Conclusions: A high prevalence of a prior history of STDs in the studied population was found. It is essential to find better ways to access HIV infection prevention, so that effective interventions can be more widely implemented. (C) 2012 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Assessment of variance components in nonlinear mixed-effects elliptical models

The issue of assessing variance components is essential in deciding on the inclusion of random effects in the context of mixed models. In this work we discuss this problem by supposing nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data by using the score-type test proposed in Silvapulle and Silvapulle (1995). Being asymptotically equivalent to the likelihood ratio test and only requiring the estimation under the null hypothesis, this test provides a fairly easy computable alternative for assessing one-sided hypotheses in the context of the marginal model. Taking into account the possible non-normal distribution, we assume that the joint distribution of the response variable and the random effects lies in the elliptical class, which includes light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions such as Student-t, power exponential, logistic, generalized Student-t, generalized logistic, contaminated normal, and the normal itself, among others. We compare the sensitivity of the score-type test under normal, Student-t and power exponential models for the kinetics data set discussed in Vonesh and Carter (1992) and fitted using the model presented in Russo et al. (2009). Also, a simulation study is performed to analyze the consequences of the kurtosis misspecification.

Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

Influence of prior 810-nm-diode intracanal laser irradiation on hydrophilic resin-based sealer obturation

Dentin wall structural changes caused by 810-nm-diode laser irradiation can influence the sealing ability of endodontic sealers. The objective of this study was to evaluate the apical leakage of AH Plus and RealSeal resin-based sealers with and without prior diode laser irradiation. Fifty-two single-rooted mandibular premolars were prepared and divided into 4 groups, according to the endodontic sealer used and the use or non-use of laser irradiation. The protocol for laser irradiation was 2.5W, continuous wave in scanning mode, with 4 exposures per tooth. After sample preparation, apical leakage of 50% ammoniacal silver nitrate impregnation was analyzed. When the teeth were not exposed to irradiation, the Real Seal sealer achieved the highest scores, showing the least leakage, with significant differences at the 5% level (Kruskal-Wallis test, p = 0.0004), compared with AH Plus. When the teeth were exposed to the 810-nm-diode laser irradiation, the sealing ability of AH Plus sealer was improved (p = 0282). In the Real Seal groups, the intracanal laser irradiation did not interfere with the leakage index, showing similar results in the GRS and GRSd groups (p = 0.1009).

Using Prior Information from the Medical Literature in GWAS of Oral Cancer Identifies Novel Susceptibility Variant on Chromosome 4-the AdAPT Method

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) require large sample sizes to obtain adequate statistical power, but it may be possible to increase the power by incorporating complementary data. In this study we investigated the feasibility of automatically retrieving information from the medical literature and leveraging this information in GWAS. Methods: We developed a method that searches through PubMed abstracts for pre-assigned keywords and key concepts, and uses this information to assign prior probabilities of association for each single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) with the phenotype of interest - the Adjusting Association Priors with Text (AdAPT) method. Association results from a GWAS can subsequently be ranked in the context of these priors using the Bayes False Discovery Probability (BFDP) framework. We initially tested AdAPT by comparing rankings of known susceptibility alleles in a previous lung cancer GWAS, and subsequently applied it in a two-phase GWAS of oral cancer. Results: Known lung cancer susceptibility SNPs were consistently ranked higher by AdAPT BFDPs than by p-values. In the oral cancer GWAS, we sought to replicate the top five SNPs as ranked by AdAPT BFDPs, of which rs991316, located in the ADH gene region of 4q23, displayed a statistically significant association with oral cancer risk in the replication phase (per-rare-allele log additive p-value [p(trend)] = 2.5 x 10(-3)). The combined OR for having one additional rare allele was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.76-0.90), and this association was independent of previously identified susceptibility SNPs that are associated with overall UADT cancer in this gene region. We also investigated if rs991316 was associated with other cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT), but no additional association signal was found. Conclusion: This study highlights the potential utility of systematically incorporating prior knowledge from the medical literature in genome-wide analyses using the AdAPT methodology. AdAPT is available online (url: http://services.gate.ac.uk/lld/gwas/service/config).

Influence diagnostics in Gaussian spatial linear models

Spatial linear models have been applied in numerous fields such as agriculture, geoscience and environmental sciences, among many others. Spatial dependence structure modelling, using a geostatistical approach, is an indispensable tool to estimate the parameters that define this structure. However, this estimation may be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations in the sampled data. The purpose of this paper is to use diagnostic techniques to assess the sensitivity of the maximum-likelihood estimators, covariance functions and linear predictor to small perturbations in the data and/or the spatial linear model assumptions. The methodology is illustrated with two real data sets. The results allowed us to conclude that the presence of atypical values in the sample data have a strong influence on thematic maps, changing the spatial dependence structure.

Variance Effective Population Size for Dioecious Species

The concept of effective population size (N(e)) is an important measure of representativeness in many areas. In this research, we consider the statistical properties of the number of contributed gametes under practical situations by adapting Crow and Denninston's (1988) N(e) formulas for dioecious species. Three sampling procedures were considered. In all circumstances, results show that as the offspring sex ratio (r) deviates from 0.5, N(e) values become smaller, and the efficiency of gametic control for increasing N(e) is reduced. For finite populations, where all individuals are potentially functional parents, the reduction in N(e) due to an unequal sex ratio can be compensated for through female gametic control when 0.28 <= r <= 0.72. This outcome is important when r is unknown. When only a fraction of the individuals in a population is taken for reproduction, N(e) is meaningful only if the size of the reference population is clearly defined. Gametic control is a compensating factor in accession regeneration when the viability of the accession is around 70 or 75%. For germ-plasm collection, when parents are a very small fraction of the population, maximum N(e) will be approximately 47 and 57% of the total number of offspring sampled, with female gametic control, r varying between 0.3 and 0.5, and being constant over generations.

Manifestações orais em crianças HIV, em Moçambique

O objetivo foi comparar conhecimento de homens idosos ao de adultos jovens sobre Aids, considerando escolaridade. Estudo epidemiológico, descritivo e de corte transversal, em que foram analisadas informações de 30 idosos e 62 adultos jovens sobre conceito, transmissão, prevenção, diagnóstico e tratamento de Aids, investigadas por entrevista estruturada baseada em questionário validado padronizado. Para análise de contingência e de variância, empregaram-se distribuições de frequências e testes de Qui quadrado ou exato de Fisher e teste t de Student ou Mann-Whitney em nível de significância de 0,05. Foram empregados o teste de Mantel-Haenszel, em nível de significância de 0,05, e os Odds Ratio com intervalos de confiança a 95%, para influência da escolaridade. Constataram-se percepção individual de boa saúde maior em jovens (61,3% contra 43,3% dos idosos) e atividade sexual maior em idosos (80% contra 62,9% dos jovens). Apesar disso foi menos frequente idosos afirmarem conhecimento satisfatório sobre Aids (26,7% contra 80,6% dos jovens); história de teste de HIV (13,3% contra 24,2% dos jovens) e ter recebido orientação sobre Aids (36,7% dos idosos e 98,4% dos jovens). Os idosos tinham informação insuficiente sobre HIV/Aids comparados a adultos jovens, reforçando a necessidade de maior atenção à população idosa.

Optimal mean-variance control for discrete-time linear systems with Markovian jumps and multiplicative noises

In this paper, we consider the stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time linear systems subject to Markov jumps and multiplicative noises under two criteria. The first one is an unconstrained mean-variance trade-off performance criterion along the time, and the second one is a minimum variance criterion along the time with constraints on the expected output. We present explicit conditions for the existence of an optimal control strategy for the problems, generalizing previous results in the literature. We conclude the paper by presenting a numerical example of a multi-period portfolio selection problem with regime switching in which it is desired to minimize the sum of the variances of the portfolio along the time under the restriction of keeping the expected value of the portfolio greater than some minimum values specified by the investor. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.