Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

Validation of the Brazilian versions of two inventories for measuring oral health-related quality of life of edentulous subjects

'Objectives: To analyse the validity of the Brazilian versions of OHIP-EDENT and GOHAI as assessment tools of edentulous subjects' OHRQoL. Background: Inventories for measuring oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) are important in clinical studies regarding oral rehabilitation. However, there is a need for comprehensive validation after translation into different cultural settings. Materials and methods: The sample comprised of 100 complete denture wearers (29 men, 71 women, mean age of 65.2 +/- 9.9 years). The associations between each OHRQoL inventory and other variables served as measurements of construct validity. Data analysis comprised the Spearman correlation test as well as multiple regression using the OHRQoL inventories as dependent variables and the other scales as determinants. Results: Both OHRQoL inventories showed good correlation with denture satisfaction, whereas lower correlation coefficients were found among the inventories and the HAD subscales. Denture satisfaction alone explained 48% and 39% of the variance found for the OHIP-EDENT and GOHAI, respectively, as assessed by multiple regression. A smaller effect was found for OHIP-EDENT. Conclusion: Both OHIP-EDENT and GOHAI showed good construct validity for measurement of OHRQoL of edentulous subjects.

Intelligent tutoring system for distance education

This study aims to develop and implement a tool called intelligent tutoring system in an online course to help a formative evaluation in order to improve student learning. According to Bloom et al. (1971,117) formative evaluation is a systematic evaluation to improve the process of teaching and learning. The intelligent tutoring system may provide a timely and high quality feedback that not only informs the correctness of the solution to the problem, but also informs students about the accuracy of the response relative to their current knowledge about the solution. Constructive and supportive feedback should be given to students to reveal the right and wrong answers immediately after taking the test. Feedback about the right answers is a form to reinforce positive behaviors. Identifying possible errors and relating them to the instructional material may help student to strengthen the content under consideration. The remedial suggestion should be given in each answer with detaileddescription with regards the materials and instructional procedures before taking next step. The main idea is to inform students about what they have learned and what they still have to learn. The open-source LMS called Moodle was extended to accomplish the formative evaluation, high-quality feedback, and the communal knowledge presented here with a short online financial math course that is being offered at a large University in Brazil. The preliminary results shows that the intelligent tutoring system using high quality feedback helped students to improve their knowledge about the solution to the problems based on the errors of their past cohorts. The results and suggestion for future work are presented and discussed.

Assessment of using digital manipulation tools for diagnosing mandibular radiolucent lesions

Objective: The purpose of this study was to analyse the use of digital tools for image enhancement of mandibular radiolucent lesions and the effects of this manipulation on the percentage of correct radiographic diagnoses. Methods: 24 panoramic radiographs exhibiting radiolucent lesions were selected, digitized and evaluated by non-experts (undergraduate and newly graduated practitioners) and by professional experts in oral diagnosis. The percentages of correct and incorrect diagnoses, according to the use of brightness/contrast, sharpness, inversion, highlight and zoom tools, were compared. All dental professionals made their evaluations without (T-1) and with (T-2) a list of radiographic diagnostic parameters. Results: Digital tools were used with low frequency mainly in T-2. The most preferred tool was sharpness (45.2%). In the expert group, the percentage of correct diagnoses did not change when any of the digital tools were used. For the non-expert group, there was an increase in the frequency of correct diagnoses when brightness/contrast was used in T-2 (p = 0.008) and when brightness/contrast and sharpness were not used in T-1 (p = 0.027). The use or non-use of brightness/contrast, zoom and sharpness showed moderate agreement in the group of experts [kappa agreement coefficient (kappa) = 0.514, 0.425 and 0.335, respectively]. For the non-expert group there was slight agreement for all the tools used (kappa <= 0.237). Conclusions: Consulting the list of radiographic parameters before image manipulation reduced the frequency of tool use in both groups of examiners. Consulting the radiographic parameters with the use of some digital tools was important for improving correct diagnosis only in the group of non-expert examiners. Dentomaxillofacial Radiology (2012) 41, 203-210. doi: 10.1259/dmfr/78567773

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as a Tool to be Applied in Prevention Strategy Plan

Risks of the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 through migratory birds to the main wintering site for wild birds in southern Brazil and its consequences were assessed. Likelihoods were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Northern migrants that breed in Alaska and regularly migrate to South America (primary Charadriiformes) can have contact with birds from affected areas in Asia. The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 through migratory birds was found to be very low as it is a probability conditioned to successful transmission in breeding areas and the probabilities of an infected bird migrating and shedding the virus as far as southern Brazil. The probability of wild species becoming exposed to H5N1-infected birds is high as they nest with northern migrants from Alaska, whereas for backyard poultry it is moderate to high depending on proximity to wetlands and the presence of species that could increase the likelihood of contact with wild birds such as domestic duck. The magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of successful transmission to poultry or wild birds would be low to severe depending on the probability of the occurrence of outbreak scenarios described. As a result, the risk estimate is greater than negligible, and HPAI H5N1 prevention strategy in the region should always be carefully considered by the veterinary services in Brazil.

A comparison of non-HDL and LDL cholesterol goal attainment in a large, multinational patient population: The Lipid Treatment Assessment Project 2

Objective: This study evaluated the success in attaining non-HDL-cholesterol (non-HDL-C) goals in the multinational L-TAP 2 study. Methods: 9955 patients >= 20 years of age with dyslipidemia on stable lipid-lowering therapy were enrolled from nine countries. Results: Success rates for non-HDL-C goals were 86% in low, 70% in moderate, and 52% in high-risk patients (63% overall). In patients with triglycerides of >200 mg/dL success rates for non-HDL-C goals were 35% vs. 69% in those with <= 200 mg/dL (p < 0.0001). Among patients attaining their LDL-C goal, 18% did not attain their non-HDL-C goal. In those with coronary disease and at least two risk factors, only 34% and 30% attained respectively their non-HDL-C and LDL-C goals. Rates of failure in attaining both LDL-C and non-HDL-C goals were highest in Latin America. Conclusions: Non-HDL-C goal attainment lagged behind LDL-C goal attainment; this gap was greatest in higher-risk patients. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genotoxicity assessment of water soluble fractions of biodiesel and its diesel blends using the Salmonella assay and the in vitro MicroFlow (R) kit (Litron) assay

The designation of biodiesel as an environmental-friendly alternative to diesel oil has improved its commercialization and use. However, most biodiesel environmental safety studies refer to air pollution and so far there have been very few literature data about its impacts upon other biotic systems, e.g. water, and exposed organisms. Spill simulations in water were carried out with neat diesel and biodiesel and their blends aiming at assessing their genotoxic potentials should there be contaminations of water systems. The water soluble fractions (WSF) from the spill simulations were submitted to solid phase extraction with C-18 cartridge and the extracts obtained were evaluated carrying out genotoxic and mutagenic bioassays [the Salmonella assay and the in vitro MicroFlow (R) kit (Litron) assay]. Mutagenic and genotoxic effects were observed, respectively, in the Salmonella/microsome preincubation assay and the in vitro MN test carried out with the biodiesel WSF. This interesting result may be related to the presence of pollutants in biodiesel derived from the raw material source used in its production chain. The data showed that care while using biodiesel should be taken to avoid harmful effects on living organisms in cases of water pollution. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computerized imaging analysis of seedlings for assessment of physiological potential of wheat seeds

Nowadays, image analysis is one of the most modern tools in evaluating physiological potential of seeds. This study aimed at verifying the efficiency of the seedling imaging analysis to assess physiological potential of wheat seeds. The seeds of wheat, cultivars IAC 370 and IAC 380, each of which represented by five different lots, were stored during four months under natural environmental conditions of temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH), in municipality of Piracicaba, Stated of São Paulo, Brazil. For this, bimonthly assessments were performed to quantify moisture content and physiological potential of seeds by means of tests of: germination, first count, accelerated aging, electrical conductivity, seedling emergence, and computerized analysis of seedlings, using the Seed Vigor Imaging System (SVIS®). It has been concluded that the computerized analyses of seedling through growth indexes and vigor, using the SVIS®, is efficient to assess physiological potential of wheat seeds.

A multiproxy assessment of organic pollution in shore sediments from the Río de la Plata Estuary, SW Atlantic

The study of organic pollution in estuaries is very relevant as they are transitional zones, which control the fluxes of water, nutrients, particles and organisms from and to the continental margins, rivers and oceans. The aims of this study are:(1) to evaluate organic pollution in coastal sediments of Montevideo, Río de la Plata Estuary by a multi-biomarker approach, (2) to identify major sources of organic pollutants through qualitative analysis using molecular indices, (3) to assess the relative contribution of different sources of hydrocarbons through quantitative source apportionment employing (PCA/MLR) as chemometric technique. Sampling surveys were carried out in July 2009, January 2010 and March 2011 in 37 stations along the middle portion of the Río de la Plata Estuary across the coast of Montevideo. In each station surface (0–2 cm depth) sediment samples were taken with a 0.05 m2 van Veen grab. The Soxhlet extracted organic compounds included aliphatic hydrocarbons (AHs) and steroids, analysed by gas chromatograph with flame ionization detector (GC-FID), linear alkylbenzenes (LABs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) quantified by gas chromatograph with mass spectrometer (GC/MS). All biomarkers presented the highest concentrations in the stations of Montevideo Bay indicating high levels of organic pollution. The combination of molecular indices and the chemometric technique showed that major sources of AHs and PAHs are petroleum inputs and combustion, due to oil transport and refinement, harbour activities and vehicular emissions.Major sources of LABs and steroids are urban and domestic sewage. Identification, quantification and source assignment of those organic compounds are very important to assess pollution and to give tools to help minimize the inputs into the environment