Redes neurais artificiais na previsão da inflação: aplicação como ferramenta de apoio à análise de decisões financeiras em organizações de pequeno porte

As estimações das taxas de inflação são de fundamental importância para os gestores, pois as decisões de investimento estão intimamente ligadas a elas. Contudo, o comportamento inflacionário tende a ser não linear e até mesmo caótico, tornando difícil a sua correta estimação. Essa característica do fenômeno pode tornar imprecisos os modelos mais simples de previsão, acessíveis às pequenas organizações, uma vez que muitos deles necessitam de grandes manipulações de dados e/ou softwares especializados. O presente artigo tem por objetivo avaliar, por meio de análise formal estatística, a eficácia das redes neurais artificiais (RNA) na previsão da inflação, dentro da realidade de organizações de pequeno porte. As RNA são ferramentas adequadas para mensurar os fenômenos inflacionários, por se tratar de aproximações de funções polinomiais, capazes de lidar com fenômenos não lineares. Para esse processo, foram selecionados três modelos básicos de redes neurais artificiais Multi Layer Perceptron, passíveis de implementação a partir de planilhas eletrônicas de código aberto. Os três modelos foram testados a partir de um conjunto de variáveis independentes sugeridas por Bresser-Pereira e Nakano (1984), com defasagem de um, seis e doze meses. Para tal, foram utilizados testes de Wilcoxon, coeficiente de determinação R² e o percentual de erro médio dos modelos. O conjunto de dados foi dividido em dois, sendo um grupo usado para treinamento das redes neurais artificiais, enquanto outro grupo era utilizado para verificar a capacidade de predição dos modelos e sua capacidade de generalização. Com isso, o trabalho concluiu que determinados modelos de redes neurais artificiais têm uma razoável capacidade de predição da inflação no curto prazo e se constituem em uma alternativa razoável para esse tipo de mensuração.

Diversity and Adaptation of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus Genotypes Circulating in Two Distinct Communities: Public Hospital and Day Care Center

HRSV is one of the most important pathogens causing acute respiratory tract diseases as bronchiolitis and pneumonia among infants. HRSV was isolated from two distinct communities, a public day care center and a public hospital in Sao Jose do Rio Preto - SP, Brazil. We obtained partial sequences from G gene that were used on phylogenetic and selection pressure analysis. HRSV accounted for 29% of respiratory infections in hospitalized children and 7.7% in day care center children. On phylogenetic analysis of 60 HRSV strains, 48 (80%) clustered within or adjacent to the GA1 genotype; GA5, NA1, NA2, BA-IV and SAB1 were also observed. SJRP GA1 strains presented variations among deduced amino acids composition and lost the potential O-glycosilation site at amino acid position 295, nevertheless this resulted in an insertion of two potential O-glycosilation sites at positions 296 and 297. Furthermore, a potential O-glycosilation site insertion, at position 293, was only observed for hospital strains. Using SLAC and MEME methods, only amino acid 274 was identified to be under positive selection. This is the first report on HRSV circulation and genotypes classification derived from a day care center community in Brazil.

SEASONALITY OF VIRAL RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS IN SOUTHEAST OF BRAZIL: THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE AND AIR HUMIDITY

Viruses are the major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in childhood and the main viruses involved are Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (HRSV), Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV), Influenzavirus A and B (FLUA and FLUB), Human Parainfluenza Virus 1, 2 and 3 (HPIV1, 2 and 3) and Human Rhinovirus (HRV). The purposes of this study were to detect respiratory viruses in hospitalized children younger than six years and identify the influence of temperature and relative air humidity on the detected viruses. Samples of nasopharyngeal washes were collected from hospitalized children between May/2004 and September/2005. Methods of viral detection were RT-PCR, PCR and HRV amplicons were confirmed by hybridization. Results showed 54% (148/272) of viral positivity. HRSV was detected in 29% (79/272) of the samples; HRV in 23.1% (63/272); HPIV3 in 5.1% (14/272); HMPV in 3.3% (9/272); HPIV1 in 2.9% (8/272); FLUB in 1.4% (4/272), FLUA in 1.1% (3/272), and HPIV2 in 0.3% (1/272). The highest detection rates occurred mainly in the spring 2004 and in the autumn 2005. It was observed that viral respiratory infections tend to increase as the relative air humidity decreases, showing significant association with monthly averages of minimal temperature and minimal relative air humidity. In conclusion, viral respiratory infections vary according to temperature and relative air humidity and viral respiratory infections present major incidences it coldest and driest periods.

Dental anomalies in Richieri-Costa-Pereira syndrome

Objective. The objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of dental anomalies in individuals with Richieri-Costa-Pereira syndrome. Study Design. A total of 13 individuals with Richieri-Costa-Pereira syndrome who were older than 8 years with at least 1 available panoramic radiograph were assessed. Dental anomalies were evaluated clinically and radiographically and classified as hyperplastic, hypoplastic, or heterotopic and as alterations of shape, number, position, and structure. Enamel alterations were classified by the DDE index. Results. All individuals exhibited anomalies, with predominance of hypoplastic disorders, mainly agenesis of mandibular incisors and second premolars and demarcated creamy-white enamel opacities primarily affecting the maxillary premolars. Conclusions. Individuals with Richieri-Costa Pereira syndrome exhibit high prevalence of tooth agenesis, especially mandibular incisors and premolars, as well as high frequency of enamel opacities. These findings are compatible with the mandibular cleft observed in all individuals and also reflect the hypoplastic characteristic of the syndrome. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol 2012;114:99-106)

Laryngeal malformation in Richieri-Costa Pereira syndrome: New findings

Laryngeal structural anomalies were described in 13 cases of Richieri-Costa Pereira syndrome, and four previously reported cases were reviewed. The 17 individuals examined had the typical laryngeal anomalies and vocal disorders previously described. The new findings are the laryngeal microweb observed in three cases and arytenoid anteriorization movement observed in 14 cases. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

SOBRECARGA E DESCONFORTO EMOCIONAL EM CUIDADORES DE IDOSOS

A finalidade deste estudo foi descrever a sobrecarga e o desconforto emocional dos cuidadores de idosos. Estudo epidemiológico e transversal conduzido em 2009 com 124 cuidadores residentes na comunidade de Ribeirão Preto-SP, por meio dos instrumentos: Escala de Sobrecarga de Zarit e Self-Reporting Questionaire (SRQ-20) para o cuidador. A análise dos dados foi realizada no aplicativo SPSS, 15.0, de forma descritiva, univariada (tabelas de frequência) e bivariada (tabelas de contingência para variáveis qualitativas). Os cuidadores, 85,6% do sexo feminino, média de 56,5 anos, utilizaram, em média, 12,4 horas diárias para o cuidar e 57,6% dos cuidadores apresentaram de leve a moderada sobrecarga. Dependência funcional do idoso, sexo do cuidador e tempo em horas para o cuidado, foram preditores da sobrecarga (p<0,05). Encontrou-se, também, que a sobrecarga é fator de risco para desconforto emocional (p<0,05). Cabe aos enfermeiros utilizarem protocolos de avaliação, com base nos fatores de risco, para prevenir a sobrecarga.

Rationale, study design, and analysis plan of the Alveolar Recruitment for ARDS Trial (ART): Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is associated with high in-hospital mortality. Alveolar recruitment followed by ventilation at optimal titrated PEEP may reduce ventilator-induced lung injury and improve oxygenation in patients with ARDS, but the effects on mortality and other clinical outcomes remain unknown. This article reports the rationale, study design, and analysis plan of the Alveolar Recruitment for ARDS Trial (ART). Methods/Design: ART is a pragmatic, multicenter, randomized (concealed), controlled trial, which aims to determine if maximum stepwise alveolar recruitment associated with PEEP titration is able to increase 28-day survival in patients with ARDS compared to conventional treatment (ARDSNet strategy). We will enroll adult patients with ARDS of less than 72 h duration. The intervention group will receive an alveolar recruitment maneuver, with stepwise increases of PEEP achieving 45 cmH(2)O and peak pressure of 60 cmH2O, followed by ventilation with optimal PEEP titrated according to the static compliance of the respiratory system. In the control group, mechanical ventilation will follow a conventional protocol (ARDSNet). In both groups, we will use controlled volume mode with low tidal volumes (4 to 6 mL/kg of predicted body weight) and targeting plateau pressure <= 30 cmH2O. The primary outcome is 28-day survival, and the secondary outcomes are: length of ICU stay; length of hospital stay; pneumothorax requiring chest tube during first 7 days; barotrauma during first 7 days; mechanical ventilation-free days from days 1 to 28; ICU, in-hospital, and 6-month survival. ART is an event-guided trial planned to last until 520 events (deaths within 28 days) are observed. These events allow detection of a hazard ratio of 0.75, with 90% power and two-tailed type I error of 5%. All analysis will follow the intention-to-treat principle. Discussion: If the ART strategy with maximum recruitment and PEEP titration improves 28-day survival, this will represent a notable advance to the care of ARDS patients. Conversely, if the ART strategy is similar or inferior to the current evidence-based strategy (ARDSNet), this should also change current practice as many institutions routinely employ recruitment maneuvers and set PEEP levels according to some titration method.

Incidence of Leptospirosis infection in the East Zone of Sao Paulo City, Brazil

Abstract Background Leptospirosis is a zoonosis which is spread through contamined running water. This contaminations is seriously affected by the flooding which occurs in the area surrounding the Aricanduva river. The transmission of the disease results mainly from the contact of water with soil contaminated by the urine of infected animals. We aimed to conduct an epidemiological survey on Leptospirosis cases in Sao Paulo East Zone area. Method The analysis conducted in this study was based on data collected from the health authorities of that region close the Aricanduva river between 2007 and 2008 years, which give the rates of confirmed cases, mortality and death from human Leptospirosis. Other information concerned with the relationships among rainfall index, points of flooding and incidence of Leptospirosis. Results We observed a direct and important water contamination. Records of flooding points and dates of the reported cases in the region showed a direct relationship from which the period of higher rainfall also recorded an increase in cases. The annual record of the city and the region and rainfall regions also presented correlation. Conclusion The association between the indices of flooding and Leptospirosis cases indicates that preventive measures are necessary to avoid exposing the community.

Management of diabetes mellitus and associated cardiovascular risk factors in Brazil – the Brazilian study on the practice of diabetes care

Abstract Background The Brazilian Study on the Practice of Diabetes Care main objective was to provide an epidemiological profile of individuals with type 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) in Brazil, concerning therapy and adherence to international guidelines in the medical practice. Methods This observational, cross-sectional, multicenter study collected and analyzed data from individuals with type 1 and 2 DM attending public or private clinics in Brazil. Each investigator included the first 10 patients with type 2 DM who visited his/her office, and the first 5 patients with type 1 DM. Results A total of 1,358 patients were analyzed; 375 (27.6%) had type 1 and 983 (72.4%) had type 2 DM. Most individuals were women, Caucasian, and private health care users. High prevalence rates of hypertension, dyslipidemia and central obesity were observed, particularly in type 2 DM. Only 7.3% and 5.1% of the individuals with types 1 and 2 DM, respectively, had optimal control of blood pressure, plasma glucose and lipids. The absence of hypertension and female sex were associated with better control of type 1 DM and other cardiovascular risk factors. In type 2 DM, older age was also associated with better control. Conclusions Female sex, older age, and absence of hypertension were associated with better metabolic control. An optimal control of plasma glucose and other cardiovascular risk factors are obtained only in a minority of individuals with diabetes. Local numbers, compared to those from other countries are worse.

Biochemical and histological characterization of tomato mutants

Biochemical responses inherent to antioxidant systems as well morphological and anatomical properties of photomorphogenic, hormonal and developmental tomato mutants were investigated. Compared to the non-mutant Micro-Tom (MT), we observed that the malondialdehyde (MDA) content was enhanced in the diageotropica (dgt) and lutescent (l) mutants, whilst the highest levels of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) were observed in high pigment 1 (hp1) and aurea (au) mutants. The analyses of antioxidant enzymes revealed that all mutants exhibited reduced catalase (CAT) activity when compared to MT. Guaiacol peroxidase (GPOX) was enhanced in both sitiens (sit) and notabilis (not) mutants, whereas in not mutant there was an increase in ascorbate peroxidase (APX). Based on PAGE analysis, the activities of glutathione reductase (GR) isoforms III, IV, V and VI were increased in l leaves, while the activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD) isoform III was reduced in leaves of sit, epi, Never ripe (Nr) and green flesh (gf) mutants. Microscopic analyses revealed that hp1 and au showed an increase in leaf intercellular spaces, whereas sit exhibited a decrease. The au and hp1 mutants also exhibited a decreased in the number of leaf trichomes. The characterization of these mutants is essential for their future use in plant development and ecophysiology studies, such as abiotic and biotic stresses on the oxidative metabolism.

Sobrecarga e desconforto emocional em cuidadores de idosos

A finalidade deste estudo foi descrever a sobrecarga e o desconforto emocional dos cuidadores de idosos. Estudo epidemiológico e transversal conduzido em 2009 com 124 cuidadores residentes na comunidade de Ribeirão Preto-SP, por meio dos instrumentos: Escala de Sobrecarga de Zarit e Self-Reporting Questionaire (SRQ-20) para o cuidador. A análise dos dados foi realizada no aplicativo SPSS, 15.0, de forma descritiva, univariada (tabelas de frequência) e bivariada (tabelas de contingência para variáveis qualitativas). Os cuidadores, 85,6% do sexo feminino, média de 56,5 anos, utilizaram, em média, 12,4 horas diárias para o cuidar e 57,6% dos cuidadores apresentaram de leve a moderada sobrecarga. Dependência funcional do idoso, sexo do cuidador e tempo em horas para o cuidado, foram preditores da sobrecarga (p<0,05). Encontrou-se, também, que a sobrecarga é fator de risco para desconforto emocional (p<0,05). Cabe aos enfermeiros utilizarem protocolos de avaliação, com base nos fatores de risco, para prevenir a sobrecarga.

Seasonality of viral respiratory infections in Southeast of Brazil: the influence of temperature and air humidity

Viruses are the major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in childhood and the main viruses involved are Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (HRSV), Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV), Influenzavirus A and B (FLUA and FLUB), Human Parainfluenza Virus 1, 2 and 3 (HPIV1, 2 and 3) and Human Rhinovirus (HRV). The purposes of this study were to detect respiratory viruses in hospitalized children younger than six years and identify the influence of temperature and relative air humidity on the detected viruses. Samples of nasopharyngeal washes were collected from hospitalized children between May/2004 and September/2005. Methods of viral detection were RT-PCR, PCR and HRV amplicons were confirmed by hybridization. Results showed 54% (148/272) of viral positivity. HRSV was detected in 29% (79/272) of the samples; HRV in 23.1% (63/272); HPIV3 in 5.1% (14/272); HMPV in 3.3% (9/272); HPIV1 in 2.9% (8/272); FLUB in 1.4% (4/272), FLUA in 1.1% (3/272), and HPIV2 in 0.3% (1/272). The highest detection rates occurred mainly in the spring 2004 and in the autumn 2005. It was observed that viral respiratory infections tend to increase as the relative air humidity decreases, showing significant association with monthly averages of minimal temperature and minimal relative air humidity. In conclusion, viral respiratory infections vary according to temperature and relative air humidity and viral respiratory infections present major incidences it coldest and driest periods.

A deglutição inadequada está associada à presença de dor miofascial mastigatória?

JUSTIFICATIVA E OBJETIVOS: Os músculos da mastigação, envolvidos na fisiopatologia da dor miofascial mastigatória, também participam da função de deglutição. Diante dos resultados controversos sobre a relação entre disfunção temporomandibular (DTM) e alterações na deglutição, o objetivo deste estudo foi verificar a presença de alterações na função da deglutição em mulheres com dor miofascial mastigatória. MÉTODO: Três testes de deglutição (um sólido e dois líquidos) foram realizados em 30 mulheres com dor miofascial (grupo de estudo = GE) e 30 mulheres saudáveis (grupo controle = GC). Alterações nos padrões de deglutição como: contração da musculatura periorbicular, contração mentual, movimentos de cabeça, deglutição acompanhada de ruído, engasgos, interposição de lábio inferior, dor após deglutição e deglutição com projeção de língua para anterior foram observadas durante os três testes. Os resultados foram descritos e comparados entre os grupos através dos testes Qui-quadrado e Exato de Fisher com nível de significância de 0,05 e intervalo de confiança a 95%. RESULTADOS: Participantes do GE apresentaram chance maior de presença de atipias durante um dos testes de deglutição de líquido [teste Qui-quadrado; p < 0,05; OR: 3,29; IC 95% (1,08 - 9,95)]. Entretanto, não houve associação entre a presença de DTM e características atípicas da deglutição avaliadas em todos os testes. CONCLUSÃO: Deglutição inadequada esteve associada com a presença de dor miofascial mastigatória apenas durante a ingestão de líquido. Entretanto, não foi possível associar um tipo específico de atipia à DTM nesta amostra.

Total parathyroidectomy in a large cohort of cases with hyperparathyroidism associated with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1: experience from a single academic center

Most cases of sporadic primary hyperparathyroidism present disturbances in a single parathyroid gland and the surgery of choice is adenomectomy. Conversely, hyperparathyroidism associated with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (hyperparathyroidism/multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1) is an asynchronic, asymmetrical multiglandular disease and it is surgically approached by either subtotal parathyroidectomy or total parathyroidectomy followed by parathyroid auto-implant to the forearm. In skilful hands, the efficacy of both approaches is similar and both should be complemented by prophylactic thymectomy. In a single academic center, 83 cases of hyperparathyroidism/ multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 were operated on from 1987 to 2010 and our first surgical choice was total parathyroidectomy followed by parathyroid auto-implant to the non-dominant forearm and, since 1997, associated transcervical thymectomy to prevent thymic carcinoid. Overall, 40% of patients were given calcium replacement (mean intake 1.6 g/day) during the first months after surgery, and this fell to 28% in patients with longer follow-up. These findings indicate that several months may be needed in order to achieve a proper secretion by the parathyroid auto-implant. Hyperparathyroidism recurrence was observed in up to 15% of cases several years after the initial surgery. Thus, long-term follow-up is recommended for such cases. We conclude that, despite a tendency to subtotal parathyroidectomy worldwide, total parathyroidectomy followed by parathyroid auto-implant is a valid surgical option to treat hyperparathyroidism/multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1. Larger comparative systematic studies are needed to define the best surgical approach to hyperparathyroidism/multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1.