A comparison of deterministic, reliability-based and risk-based structural optimization under uncertainty

In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chronic Intermittent Hypoxia Depresses Afferent Neurotransmission in NTS Neurons by a Reduction in the Number of Active Synapses

Long-term synaptic plasticity has been recently described in brainstem areas associated to visceral afferent sensory integration. Chronic intermittent hypoxia (CIH), an animal model for studying obstructive sleep apnea in humans, depresses the afferent neurotransmission in nucleus tractus solitarii (NTS) neurons, which affect respiratory and autonomic regulation. Here we identified the synaptic mechanisms of CIH-induced depression of the afferent neurotransmission in NTS neurons in juvenile rats. We verified that CIH reduced the amplitude of both NMDA and non-NMDA glutamatergic excitatory currents (eEPSCs) evoked by tractus solitarii stimulation (TS-eEPSC) of second-order neurons in the NTS. No changes were observed in release probability, evidenced by absence of any CIH-elicited effects on short-term depression and failures in EPSCs evoked in low calcium. CIH also produced no changes in TS-eEPSC quantal size, since the amplitudes of both low calcium-evoked EPSCs and asynchronous TS-eEPSCs (evoked in the presence of Sr2+) were unchanged. Using single TS afferent fiber stimulation in slices from control and CIH rats we clearly show that CIH reduced the quantal content of the TS-eEPSCs without affecting the quantal size or release probability, suggesting a reduction in the number of active synapses as the mechanism of CIH induced TS-eEPSC depression. In accordance with this concept, the input-output relationship of stimulus intensity and TS-eEPSC amplitude shows an early saturation in CIH animals. These findings open new perspectives for a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the synaptic plasticity in the brainstem sensory neurons under challenges such as those produced by CIH in experimental and pathological conditions.

Failure to reduce C-reactive protein levels more than 25% in the last 24 hours before intensive care unit discharge predicts higher in-hospital mortality: A cohort study

Purpose: To discharge a patient from the intensive care unit (ICU) is a complex decision-making process because in-hospital mortality after critical illness may be as high as up to 27%. Static C-reactive protein (CRP) values have been previously evaluated as a predictor of post-ICU mortality with conflicting results. Therefore, we evaluated the CRP ratio in the last 24 hours before ICU discharge as a predictor of in-hospital outcomes. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed in 409 patients from a 6-bed ICU of a university hospital. Data were prospectively collected during a 4-year period. Only patients discharged alive from the ICU with at least 72 hours of ICU length of stay were evaluated. Results: In-hospital mortality was 18.3% (75/409). Patients with reduction less than 25% in CRP concentrations at 24 hours as compared with 48 hours before ICU discharge had a worse prognosis, with increased mortality (23% vs 11%, P = .002) and post-ICU length of stay (26 [7-43] vs 11 [5-27] days, P = .036). Moreover, among hospital survivors (n = 334), patients with CRP reduction less than 25% were discharged later (hazard ratio, 0.750; 95% confidence interval, 0.602-0.935; P = .011). Conclusions: In this large cohort of critically ill patients, failure to reduce CRP values more than 25% in the last 24 hours of ICU stay is a strong predictor of worse in-hospital outcomes. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic failure modelling of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride penetration

Structural durability is an important criterion that must be evaluated for every type of structure. Concerning reinforced concrete members, chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate durability, especially when these structures are constructed in aggressive atmospheres. The chloride ingress triggers the corrosion of reinforcements; therefore, by modelling this phenomenon, the corrosion process can be better evaluated as well as the structural durability. The corrosion begins when a threshold level of chloride concentration is reached at the steel bars of reinforcements. Despite the robustness of several models proposed in literature, deterministic approaches fail to predict accurately the corrosion time initiation due the inherent randomness observed in this process. In this regard, structural durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. This paper addresses the analyses of probabilistic corrosion time initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride penetration. The chloride penetration is modelled using the Fick's diffusion law. This law simulates the chloride diffusion process considering time-dependent effects. The probability of failure is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and the first order reliability method, with a direct coupling approach. Some examples are considered in order to study these phenomena. Moreover, a simplified method is proposed to determine optimal values for concrete cover.

Noninvasive ventilation immediately after extubation improves weaning outcome after acute respiratory failure: a randomized controlled trial

Abstract Introduction Noninvasive ventilation (NIV), as a weaning-facilitating strategy in predominantly chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mechanically ventilated patients, is associated with reduced ventilator-associated pneumonia, total duration of mechanical ventilation, length of intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay, and mortality. However, this benefit after planned extubation in patients with acute respiratory failure of various etiologies remains to be elucidated. The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of NIV applied immediately after planned extubation in contrast to oxygen mask (OM) in patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF). Methods A randomized, prospective, controlled, unblinded clinical study in a single center of a 24-bed adult general ICU in a university hospital was carried out in a 12-month period. Included patients met extubation criteria with at least 72 hours of mechanical ventilation due to acute respiratory failure, after following the ICU weaning protocol. Patients were randomized immediately before elective extubation, being randomly allocated to one of the study groups: NIV or OM. We compared both groups regarding gas exchange 15 minutes, 2 hours, and 24 hours after extubation, reintubation rate after 48 hours, duration of mechanical ventilation, ICU length of stay, and hospital mortality. Results Forty patients were randomized to receive NIV (20 patients) or OM (20 patients) after the following extubation criteria were met: pressure support (PSV) of 7 cm H2O, positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) of 5 cm H2O, oxygen inspiratory fraction (FiO2) ≤ 40%, arterial oxygen saturation (SaO2) ≥ 90%, and ratio of respiratory rate and tidal volume in liters (f/TV) < 105. Comparing the 20 patients (NIV) with the 18 patients (OM) that finished the study 48 hours after extubation, the rate of reintubation in NIV group was 5% and 39% in OM group (P = 0.016). Relative risk for reintubation was 0.13 (CI = 0.017 to 0.946). Absolute risk reduction for reintubation showed a decrease of 33.9%, and analysis of the number needed to treat was three. No difference was found in the length of ICU stay (P = 0.681). Hospital mortality was zero in NIV group and 22.2% in OM group (P = 0.041). Conclusions In this study population, NIV prevented 48 hours reintubation if applied immediately after elective extubation in patients with more than 3 days of ARF when compared with the OM group. Trial Registration number ISRCTN: 41524441.