Vectorial capacity, basic reproduction number, force of infection and all that: formal notation to complete and adjust their classical concepts and equations

A dimensional analysis of the classical equations related to the dynamics of vector-borne infections is presented. It is provided a formal notation to complete the expressions for the Ross' threshold theorem, the Macdonald's basic reproduction "rate" and sporozoite "rate", Garret-Jones' vectorial capacity and Dietz-Molineaux-Thomas' force of infection. The analysis was intended to provide a formal notation that complete the classical equations proposed by these authors.

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

Background: In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Seroepidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season. Methods: In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-119 (MSP-119) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method. Results: A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for P. falciparum and 7.9% and 6.0% for P. vivax in August and November respectively). P. falciparum force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst P. vivax force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for P. falciparum in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to P. falciparum during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases. Discussion: In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.

A comparative analysis of the relative efficacy of vector-control strategies against dengue fever

Dengue is considered one of the most important vector-borne infection, affecting almost half of the world population with 50 to 100 million cases every year. In this paper, we present one of the simplest models that can encapsulate all the important variables related to vector control of dengue fever. The model considers the human population, the adult mosquito population and the population of immature stages, which includes eggs, larvae and pupae. The model also considers the vertical transmission of dengue in the mosquitoes and the seasonal variation in the mosquito population. From this basic model describing the dynamics of dengue infection, we deduce thresholds for avoiding the introduction of the disease and for the elimination of the disease. In particular, we deduce a Basic Reproduction Number for dengue that includes parameters related to the immature stages of the mosquito. By neglecting seasonal variation, we calculate the equilibrium values of the model’s variables. We also present a sensitivity analysis of the impact of four vector-control strategies on the Basic Reproduction Number, on the Force of Infection and on the human prevalence of dengue. Each of the strategies was studied separately from the others. The analysis presented allows us to conclude that of the available vector control strategies, adulticide application is the most effective, followed by the reduction of the exposure to mosquito bites, locating and destroying breeding places and, finally, larvicides. Current vector-control methods are concentrated on mechanical destruction of mosquitoes’ breeding places. Our results suggest that reducing the contact between vector and hosts (biting rates) is as efficient as the logistically difficult but very efficient adult mosquito’s control.

Designing a vaccination strategy against dengue

In this work we propose a mathematical approach to estimate the dengue force of infection, the average age of dengue first infection, the optimum age to vaccinate children against dengue in a routine fashion and the optimum age interval to introduce the dengue vaccine in a mass vaccination campaign. The model is based on previously published models for vaccination against other childhood infections, which resulted in actual vaccination programmes in Brazil. The model was applied for three areas of distinct levels of endemicity of the city of Recife in Northeastern State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Our results point to an optimal age to introduce the dengue vaccine in the routine immunization programme at two years of age and an age interval to introduce a mass vaccination between three and 14 years of age.

Designing a vaccination strategy against dengue

In this work we propose a mathematical approach to estimate the dengue force of infection, the average age of dengue first infection, the optimum age to vaccinate children against dengue in a routine fashion and the optimum age interval to introduce the dengue vaccine in a mass vaccination campaign. The model is based on previously published models for vaccination against other childhood infections, which resulted in actual vaccination programmes in Brazil. The model was applied for three areas of distinct levels of endemicity of the city of Recife in Northeastern State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Our results point to an optimal age to introduce the dengue vaccine in the routine immunization programme at two years of age and an age interval to introduce a mass vaccination between three and 14 years of age.

Prevalence of hepatitis B virus infection and carriage after nineteen years of vaccination program in the Western Brazilian Amazon

Introduction: Reductions in the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and carriage, decreases in liver cancer incidence, and changes in patterns of liver dysfunctions are described after hepatitis B vaccination. Methods: We conducted a population-based seroprevalence study aimed at estimating the HBV prevalence and risk of infection in the rural area of Labrea following nineteen years of HBV vaccination. Results: Half of the subjects showed total anti-HBc of 52.1% (95% CI 49.6-54.7). The HBsAg prevalence was 6.2% (95% CI 5.1-7.6). Multivariate analysis showed an inverse association between HBV infection and vaccination (OR 0.62; 95% CI 0.44-0.87). HBsAg remained independently associated with past hepatitis (OR 2.44; 95% CI 1.52-3.89) and inversely to vaccination (OR 0.43; 95% CI 0.27-0.69). The prevalence of HBeAg among HBsAg-positive individuals was 20.4% (95% CI 12.8-30.1), with the positive subjects having a median age of 11 years (1-46) p=0.0003. Conclusions: We demonstrate that HBV infection is still an important public health issue and that HBV vaccination could have had better impact on HBV epidemiology. If we extrapolate these findings to other rural areas in the Brazilian Amazon, we can predict that the sources of chronic infected patients remain a challenge. Future studies are needed regarding clinical aspects, molecular epidemiology, surveillance of acute cases, and risk groups.

A cross-sectional study on canine Leishmania (L.) infantum chagasi infection in Amazonian Brazil ratifies a higher prevalence of specific IgG-antibody response than delayed-type hypersensitivity in symptomatic and asymptomatic dogs

This was a cross-sectional study which analyzed the prevalence and the clinical and immunological spectrum of canine Leishmania (L.) infantum chagasi infection in a cohort of 320 mongrel dogs living in an endemic area of American visceral leishmaniasis in the Amazonian Brazil by using, mainly, the indirect fluorescence antibody test (IFAT-IgG) and the delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH), and the parasite research by the popliteal lymph node aspiration. The IFAT and DTH reactivity recognized three different immune response profiles: (1) IFAT((+))/DTH(-) (107 dogs), (2) IFAT((-))/DTH(+) (18 dogs), and (3) IFAT((+))/DTH(+) (13 dogs), providing an overall prevalence of infection of 43 % (138/320). Thus, the specific prevalence of IFAT ((+)) /DTH ((-)) 33.4 % (107/320) was higher than those of IFAT ((-)) /DTH ((+)) 5.6 % (18/320) and IFAT ((+)) /DTH ((+)) 4.0 % (13/320). Moreover, the frequency of these profiles among 138 infected dogs showed that the IFAT ((+)) /DTH ((-)) rate of 77.5 % (107/138) was also higher than those of 13.0 % (18/138) of IFAT ((-)) /DTH ((+)) and 9.5 % (13/138) of IFAT ((+)) /DTH ((+)) rates. The frequency of asymptomatic dogs (76 %-105) was higher than those of symptomatic (16.6 %-23) and oligosymptomatic ones (7.4 %-10). A total of 16 (11.6 %) L. (L.) i. chagasi isolates were obtained from infected dogs, all from the IFAT ((+)) /DTH ((-)) profile: 41 % (9/22) from symptomatic, 33.3 % (3/9) from oligosymptomatic, and 5.2 % (4/76) from asymptomatic dogs. These findings strongly suggested that despite the higher frequency of asymptomatic dogs (76 %-105), the majority (72.4 %-76) was characterized by the IFAT ((+)) /DTH ((-)) profile with a doubtful immunogenetic resistance against infection.

Potential costs of bacterial infection on storage protein gene expression and reproduction in queenless Apis mellifera worker bees on distinct dietary regimes

Insects are able to combat infection by initiating an efficient immune response that involves synthesizing antimicrobial peptides and a range of other defense molecules. These responses may be costly to the organism, resulting in it exploiting endogenous resources to maintain homeostasis or support defense to the detriment of other physiological needs. We used queenless worker bees on distinct dietary regimes that may alter hemolymph protein storage and ovary activation to investigate the physiological costs of infection with Serratia marcescens. The expression of the genes encoding the storage proteins vitellogenin and hexamerin 70a, the vitellogenin receptor, and vasa (which has a putative role in reproduction), was impaired in the infected bees. This impairment was mainly evident in the bees fed beebread, which caused significantly higher expression of these genes than did royal jelly or syrup, and this was confirmed at the vitellogenin and hexamerin 70a protein levels. Beebread was also the only diet that promoted ovary activation in the queenless bees, but this activation was significantly impaired by the infection. The expression of the genes encoding the storage proteins apolipophorins-I and -III and the lipophorin receptor was not altered by infection regardless the diet provided to the bees. Similarly, the storage of apolipophorin-I in the hemolymph was only slightly impaired by the infection, independently of the supplied diet. Taken together these results indicate that, infection demands a physiological cost from the transcription of specific protein storage-related genes and from the reproductive capacity. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A longitudinal study of Neospora caninum infection on three dairy farms in Brazil

Neospora caninum is an apicomplexan protozoan parasite that is one of the most important infectious causes of abortion in both dairy and beef cattle in many countries. The objectives of this longitudinal study were to determine the prevalence, rates of vertical and horizontal transmission of N. caninum and hazard for culling of N. caninum-seropositive animals in three Brazilian dairy herds. Blood samples from all animals were collected nine times at each of the three farms over a two-year period. Serum was tested for antibodies against N. caninum using the indirect fluorescent antibody test with a cutoff value of 1:100. The percentage of N. caninum-positive samples at each sampling time ranged at Farm 1 from 3.32% to 11.71%, at Farm 11 from 3.90% to 22.06% and at Farm III from 3.90% to 22.06%. The number of positive serological reactions varied in relation to the number of repeated samples taken from individual animals at each farm. In all herds, there was a high degree (P < 0.05) of association between the N. caninum serological status of dams and daughters. The seropositive conversion rate was estimated as 0.37%, 3.00% and 6.94% per 100 cow-years at Farms I, II and III, respectively. The seronegative conversion rate was estimated as 31.58% and 11.11% per 100 cow-years at Farms 1 and III, respectively. In all herds, there was no difference (P > 0.05) in the culling rate between the cattle that were seropositive cattle and seronegative for N. caninum infection. The results from this study confirm the importance of vertical transmission in the epidemiology of N. caninum. Although a few positive seroconversions indicated horizontal transmission, it does not appear to be the major route of infection for N. caninum. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiologic findings of osteoarticular infection in paracoccidioidomycosis

To report the radiological abnormalities of osteoarticular involvement in paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM). After institutional board approval, the medical records and conventional radiology findings of 19 patients with osseous PCM were retrospectively reviewed. Number, distribution, and lesion characteristics were evaluated in consensus by two experienced musculoskeletal radiologists. The mean age of patients was 16.1 years (range 4-49 years), 11 male and eight female. MSK involvement was the only or the primary presentation of the disease in eight of 19 patients (42.1%). In total, 51 focal bone lesions were detected, being 41 in long bones. In long bones lesions, 19 of 41 (46.4%) were metaphyseal, 12 of 41 (29.3%) meta-epiphyseal, and 12 of 41 (29.3%) diaphyseal. The most common presentation was a geographic osteolytic bone lesion (62.7%), without marginal sclerosis (82.4%) and without periosteal reaction (90.2%). Articular involvement was present in six of 19 patients (31.6%), being two cases of primary arthritis. All encountered bone lesions were osteolytic. Metaphyseal or meta-epiphyseal osteomyelitis of a long bone was the most prevalent osteoarticular manifestation of paracoccidioidomycosis. PCM osteoarticular involvement could be solitary or multifocal, occurs almost exclusively in the acute/subacute clinical form, and it is more common in children and in juvenile patients. Axial skeleton involvement, arthritis, or a disseminated osseous pattern of infection may occasionally occur in this fungal disease.

Prevalence and risk factors of Hepatitis C virus infection in Brazil, 2005 through 2009: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Hepatitis C chronic liver disease is a major cause of liver transplant in developed countries. This article reports the first nationwide population-based survey conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of HCV antibodies and associated risk factors in the urban population of Brazil. Methods The cross sectional study was conducted in all Brazilian macro-regions from 2005 to 2009, as a stratified multistage cluster sample of 19,503 inhabitants aged between 10 and 69 years, representing individuals living in all 26 State capitals and the Federal District. Hepatitis C antibodies were detected by a third-generation enzyme immunoassay. Seropositive individuals were retested by Polymerase Chain Reaction and genotyped. Adjusted prevalence was estimated by macro-regions. Potential risk factors associated with HCV infection were assessed by calculating the crude and adjusted odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and p values. Population attributable risk was estimated for multiple factors using a case–control approach. Results The overall weighted prevalence of hepatitis C antibodies was 1.38% (95% CI: 1.12%–1.64%). Prevalence of infection increased in older groups but was similar for both sexes. The multivariate model showed the following to be predictors of HCV infection: age, injected drug use (OR = 6.65), sniffed drug use (OR = 2.59), hospitalization (OR = 1.90), groups socially deprived by the lack of sewage disposal (OR = 2.53), and injection with glass syringe (OR = 1.52, with a borderline p value). The genotypes 1 (subtypes 1a, 1b), 2b and 3a were identified. The estimated population attributable risk for the ensemble of risk factors was 40%. Approximately 1.3 million individuals would be expected to be anti-HCV-positive in the country. Conclusions The large estimated absolute numbers of infected individuals reveals the burden of the disease in the near future, giving rise to costs for the health care system and society at large. The known risk factors explain less than 50% of the infected cases, limiting the prevention strategies. Our findings regarding risk behaviors associated with HCV infection showed that there is still room for improving strategies for reducing transmission among drug users and nosocomial infection, as well as a need for specific prevention and control strategies targeting individuals living in poverty.

Performance of six diagnostic tests to screen for Chagas disease in blood banks and prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening based on the analysis of epidemiological variables

OBJECTIVE: The frequent occurrence of inconclusive serology in blood banks and the absence of a gold standard test for Chagas'disease led us to examine the efficacy of the blood culture test and five commercial tests (ELISA, IIF, HAI, c-ELISA, rec-ELISA) used in screening blood donors for Chagas disease, as well as to investigate the prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening in respect to some epidemiological variables. METHODS: To obtain estimates of interest we considered a Bayesian latent class model with inclusion of covariates from the logit link. RESULTS: A better performance was observed with some categories of epidemiological variables. In addition, all pairs of tests (excluding the blood culture test) presented as good alternatives for both screening (sensitivity > 99.96% in parallel testing) and for confirmation (specificity > 99.93% in serial testing) of Chagas disease. The prevalence of 13.30% observed in the stratum of donors with inconclusive serology, means that probably most of these are non-reactive serology. In addition, depending on the level of specific epidemiological variables, the absence of infection can be predicted with a probability of 100% in this group from the pairs of tests using parallel testing. CONCLUSION: The epidemiological variables can lead to improved test results and thus assist in the clarification of inconclusive serology screening results. Moreover, all combinations of pairs using the five commercial tests are good alternatives to confirm results.

Mycobacterium bovis infection in goats from the Northeast Region of Brazil

A total of 8,058 male and female mixed-breed goats and 1-4 years of age were slaughtered over a period of 7 months at the public slaughterhouse of Patos city, Paraíba state, in the Northeast region of Brazil; 822 animals were inspected for gross lesions of tuberculosis, and 12 (1.46%) had lesions suggestive of tuberculosis in the mammary gland, lungs, liver and mediastinal, mesenteric, submandibular, parotid and prescapular lymph nodes. Presence of granulomatous lesions was confirmed in the submandibular lymph node of one (8.3%) goat at the histopathological examination and at the mycobacterium culture the same sample was confirmed positive. Isolate was confirmed as belonging to the M. tuberculosis complex by PCR restriction enzyme analysis (PRA). Spoligotyping identified the isolate into spoligotype SB0295 on the M. bovis Spoligotype Database website (www.mbovis.org), and it was classified as M. bovis. The occurrence of M. bovis in goats in this study suggests that this species may be a potential source of infection for humans and should be regarded as a possible problem in the advancement of control and eradication program for bovine tuberculosis in Brazil.